Google Lost $2.7 Billion In Talent This Week. The Real Reason Isn't Money.

What if I told you that Anthropic is the What if I told you that Anthropic is the one that's actually ahead and that one that's actually ahead and that one that's actually ahead and that Anthropic has had the better month than Anthropic has had the better month than Anthropic has had the better month than OpenAI? I know that sounds insane OpenAI? I know that sounds insane OpenAI? I know that sounds insane because they've had their model banned. because they've had their model banned. because they've had their model banned. But, I'm going to explain why and I'm But, I'm going to explain why and I'm But, I'm going to explain why and I'm also going to explain why maybe maybe also going to explain why maybe maybe also going to explain why maybe maybe maybe none of it matters as much as we maybe none of it matters as much as we maybe none of it matters as much as we think and we should be looking outside think and we should be looking outside think and we should be looking outside the two major model makers for the the two major model makers for the the two major model makers for the energy in the AI space. And so, I'm energy in the AI space. And so, I'm energy in the AI space. And so, I'm going to cover a major new development going to cover a major new development going to cover a major new development from not OpenAI and not Anthropic at the from not OpenAI and not Anthropic at the from not OpenAI and not Anthropic at the end of the video. Stay tuned for that. end of the video. Stay tuned for that. end of the video. Stay tuned for that. But first, let's jump into what made But first, let's jump into what made But first, let's jump into what made OpenAI's week great and the news that we OpenAI's week great and the news that we OpenAI's week great and the news that we didn't see about Anthropic that also didn't see about Anthropic that also didn't see about Anthropic that also argues that they may be ahead. OpenAI argues that they may be ahead. OpenAI argues that they may be ahead. OpenAI really looks like it won the last week, really looks like it won the last week, really looks like it won the last week, right? All of the story has been around right? All of the story has been around right? All of the story has been around how Fable has been banned, how there how Fable has been banned, how there how Fable has been banned, how there have been unsuccessful negotiations with have been unsuccessful negotiations with have been unsuccessful negotiations with Washington. Now, there are rumors maybe Washington. Now, there are rumors maybe Washington. Now, there are rumors maybe it's getting back on track. Meanwhile, it's getting back on track. Meanwhile, it's getting back on track. Meanwhile, OpenAI has rumors of 5.6 coming out and OpenAI has rumors of 5.6 coming out and OpenAI has rumors of 5.6 coming out and also got a major hire from Google in also got a major hire from Google in also got a major hire from Google in Noam Shazeer, one of the original Noam Shazeer, one of the original Noam Shazeer, one of the original authors of Attention Is All You Need, authors of Attention Is All You Need, authors of Attention Is All You Need, which is the paper that kicked off the which is the paper that kicked off the which is the paper that kicked off the entire LLM revolution. So, one of the entire LLM revolution. So, one of the entire LLM revolution. So, one of the original authors of that went to OpenAI.

original authors of that went to OpenAI. original authors of that went to OpenAI. It's easy to see, "Wow, it's a It's easy to see, "Wow, it's a It's easy to see, "Wow, it's a king-making week." I want to tell a king-making week." I want to tell a king-making week." I want to tell a different story. I want to suggest to different story. I want to suggest to different story. I want to suggest to you that it's quite possible to read you that it's quite possible to read you that it's quite possible to read this week and think about it and come this week and think about it and come this week and think about it and come out with the opposite conclusion, that out with the opposite conclusion, that out with the opposite conclusion, that Anthropic is the one that's ahead. Now, Anthropic is the one that's ahead. Now, Anthropic is the one that's ahead. Now, I'm not saying I know that for sure, but I'm not saying I know that for sure, but I'm not saying I know that for sure, but I'm saying it's worth considering and I I'm saying it's worth considering and I I'm saying it's worth considering and I want you to sit here and think about it want you to sit here and think about it want you to sit here and think about it with me because the implication of with me because the implication of with me because the implication of having a wider field of view is that we having a wider field of view is that we having a wider field of view is that we start to see the edges of what's start to see the edges of what's start to see the edges of what's possible with these AI models. We start possible with these AI models. We start possible with these AI models. We start to see beyond the obvious news. So, to see beyond the obvious news. So, to see beyond the obvious news. So, stick with me. Anthropic stick with me. Anthropic stick with me. Anthropic also got major talent this week. That also got major talent this week. That also got major talent this week. That didn't make as much news, but John didn't make as much news, but John didn't make as much news, but John Jumper went to Anthropic from Google. Jumper went to Anthropic from Google. Jumper went to Anthropic from Google. Google had a terrible week. There's just Google had a terrible week. There's just Google had a terrible week. There's just no other way to say it. Now, John Jumper no other way to say it. Now, John Jumper no other way to say it. Now, John Jumper is a Nobel Prize winner in AI and he won is a Nobel Prize winner in AI and he won is a Nobel Prize winner in AI and he won because of the work he did in chemistry because of the work he did in chemistry because of the work he did in chemistry on AlphaFold with Demis Hassabis. And on AlphaFold with Demis Hassabis. And on AlphaFold with Demis Hassabis. And now he's going to Anthropic. So, here's now he's going to Anthropic. So, here's now he's going to Anthropic. So, here's the deeper story. the deeper story. the deeper story. The talent movements matter much more The talent movements matter much more The talent movements matter much more than the cover story with Fable being than the cover story with Fable being than the cover story with Fable being banned temporarily and all of that. I banned temporarily and all of that. I banned temporarily and all of that. I have every confidence that Fable's going have every confidence that Fable's going have every confidence that Fable's going to come back. But, if you look at where to come back. But, if you look at where to come back. But, if you look at where the talent is going, it's concentrating the talent is going, it's concentrating the talent is going, it's concentrating not just at OpenAI, but at both major not just at OpenAI, but at both major not just at OpenAI, but at both major labs, at Anthropic and at OpenAI. And in labs, at Anthropic and at OpenAI. And in labs, at Anthropic and at OpenAI. And in both cases, the bet around the valley is both cases, the bet around the valley is both cases, the bet around the valley is that recursive self-improvement is that recursive self-improvement is that recursive self-improvement is starting to kick off at these labs. And starting to kick off at these labs. And starting to kick off at these labs. And if that's the case, Anthropic is not if that's the case, Anthropic is not if that's the case, Anthropic is not nearly as poorly off as the news is nearly as poorly off as the news is nearly as poorly off as the news is making it seem this week because they're

making it seem this week because they're making it seem this week because they're ahead on recursive self-improvement. Do ahead on recursive self-improvement. Do ahead on recursive self-improvement. Do you know how I know that? Because Fable you know how I know that? Because Fable you know how I know that? Because Fable and Mythos, regardless of whether and Mythos, regardless of whether and Mythos, regardless of whether they're banned, they're banned, they're banned, are a new pre-trained model. There's are a new pre-trained model. There's are a new pre-trained model. There's just no other way to interpret that. just no other way to interpret that. just no other way to interpret that. Remember, Anthropic never invested in Remember, Anthropic never invested in Remember, Anthropic never invested in the reasoning layer that OpenAI invested the reasoning layer that OpenAI invested the reasoning layer that OpenAI invested in. A lot of the way that OpenAI turns in. A lot of the way that OpenAI turns in. A lot of the way that OpenAI turns the crank on these models the crank on these models the crank on these models is by improving the reasoning and is by improving the reasoning and is by improving the reasoning and post-training pieces of the model, post-training pieces of the model, post-training pieces of the model, improving some of the harness pieces, improving some of the harness pieces, improving some of the harness pieces, how the model uses memory. how the model uses memory. how the model uses memory. And that's how they release these models And that's how they release these models And that's how they release these models that they call their point one model that they call their point one model that they call their point one model releases. OpenAI, in fact, has not had releases. OpenAI, in fact, has not had releases. OpenAI, in fact, has not had nearly the same cadence at pre-trained nearly the same cadence at pre-trained nearly the same cadence at pre-trained models that are larger in scale as models that are larger in scale as models that are larger in scale as Anthropic has because they've been able Anthropic has because they've been able Anthropic has because they've been able to lean on reasoning. This is an to lean on reasoning. This is an to lean on reasoning. This is an underappreciated point and it's about to underappreciated point and it's about to underappreciated point and it's about to start to matter because pre-trained start to matter because pre-trained start to matter because pre-trained models are naturally more intelligent. models are naturally more intelligent. models are naturally more intelligent. Now, they're phenomenally expensive to Now, they're phenomenally expensive to Now, they're phenomenally expensive to run because pre-trained models to scale run because pre-trained models to scale run because pre-trained models to scale up, you have to spend more and more and up, you have to spend more and more and up, you have to spend more and more and use more and more GPUs. But, Anthropic use more and more GPUs. But, Anthropic use more and more GPUs. But, Anthropic has the edge right now because they have has the edge right now because they have has the edge right now because they have the largest, freshest pre-trained model the largest, freshest pre-trained model the largest, freshest pre-trained model in the world. And they can use that to in the world. And they can use that to in the world. And they can use that to train the next one. And that is exactly train the next one. And that is exactly train the next one. And that is exactly what I think that they want to do. Now, what I think that they want to do. Now, what I think that they want to do. Now, OpenAI, of course, is working on a OpenAI, of course, is working on a OpenAI, of course, is working on a pre-train as well, but keep in mind pre-train as well, but keep in mind pre-train as well, but keep in mind their last major publicly disclosed their last major publicly disclosed their last major publicly disclosed pre-train in 4.5 got pulled very soon pre-train in 4.5 got pulled very soon pre-train in 4.5 got pulled very soon after it was launched. It did not go after it was launched. It did not go after it was launched. It did not go super well. And so, one of the questions super well. And so, one of the questions super well. And so, one of the questions that we've all had in the background is

that we've all had in the background is that we've all had in the background is when is the next major OpenAI pre-train when is the next major OpenAI pre-train when is the next major OpenAI pre-train model going to come out? And if it comes model going to come out? And if it comes model going to come out? And if it comes out, how is it going to be delivered, out, how is it going to be delivered, out, how is it going to be delivered, how is it going to be put together with how is it going to be put together with how is it going to be put together with the post-train and the reasoning side of the post-train and the reasoning side of the post-train and the reasoning side of things to deliver a overall package things to deliver a overall package things to deliver a overall package inside their codex, inside their ChatGPT inside their codex, inside their ChatGPT inside their codex, inside their ChatGPT experiences? That is going to take some experiences? That is going to take some experiences? That is going to take some time. time. time. What I just described is not easy to do. What I just described is not easy to do. What I just described is not easy to do. And so, I would argue that from a pure And so, I would argue that from a pure And so, I would argue that from a pure model perspective right now, Anthropic model perspective right now, Anthropic model perspective right now, Anthropic has the strongest position in the race. has the strongest position in the race. has the strongest position in the race. Fable and Methuselah are the best models Fable and Methuselah are the best models Fable and Methuselah are the best models in the world. They can use them to make in the world. They can use them to make in the world. They can use them to make another jump in pre-training. And it may another jump in pre-training. And it may another jump in pre-training. And it may be the case at this point in the race be the case at this point in the race be the case at this point in the race that that one half step ahead that they that that one half step ahead that they that that one half step ahead that they have is enough. I don't know that for have is enough. I don't know that for have is enough. I don't know that for sure, and there's great talent on both sure, and there's great talent on both sure, and there's great talent on both sides of the chessboard saying yes and sides of the chessboard saying yes and sides of the chessboard saying yes and no. But, certainly, it it would be no. But, certainly, it it would be no. But, certainly, it it would be irresponsible to count them out of the irresponsible to count them out of the irresponsible to count them out of the race at this point. So, that was the race at this point. So, that was the race at this point. So, that was the week for OpenAI and Anthropic. Now, the week for OpenAI and Anthropic. Now, the week for OpenAI and Anthropic. Now, the part I promised you where I said that I part I promised you where I said that I part I promised you where I said that I would cover the wider space. I would would cover the wider space. I would would cover the wider space. I would argue that none of the conversation, argue that none of the conversation, argue that none of the conversation, whether you agree with me that Anthropic whether you agree with me that Anthropic whether you agree with me that Anthropic is ahead or not, none of it matters is ahead or not, none of it matters is ahead or not, none of it matters compared to what Midjourney announced compared to what Midjourney announced compared to what Midjourney announced this past week. Midjourney announced the this past week. Midjourney announced the this past week. Midjourney announced the biggest medical imaging breakthrough in biggest medical imaging breakthrough in biggest medical imaging breakthrough in 50 years. They took their own business.

50 years. They took their own business. 50 years. They took their own business. It's extremely profitable. They can It's extremely profitable. They can It's extremely profitable. They can reinvest the money anywhere they want. reinvest the money anywhere they want. reinvest the money anywhere they want. They have 40 employees and $200 million They have 40 employees and $200 million They have 40 employees and $200 million in revenue. They got to put that money in revenue. They got to put that money in revenue. They got to put that money somewhere. They decided to put it into somewhere. They decided to put it into somewhere. They decided to put it into preventative medical care with a brand preventative medical care with a brand preventative medical care with a brand new device. This device is a special new device. This device is a special new device. This device is a special kind of ultrasound that images the kind of ultrasound that images the kind of ultrasound that images the inside of your body and it's cheap and inside of your body and it's cheap and inside of your body and it's cheap and it's affordable and it's much much it's affordable and it's much much it's affordable and it's much much faster than an MRI and they're planning faster than an MRI and they're planning faster than an MRI and they're planning to roll it out to the scale of getting a to roll it out to the scale of getting a to roll it out to the scale of getting a billion of these scans a year in the billion of these scans a year in the billion of these scans a year in the next couple of years. And it's going to next couple of years. And it's going to next couple of years. And it's going to feel like a visit to the spa and that's feel like a visit to the spa and that's feel like a visit to the spa and that's the way they're framing it. They're the way they're framing it. They're the way they're framing it. They're going to build something that feels like going to build something that feels like going to build something that feels like a spa in San Francisco first and then a spa in San Francisco first and then a spa in San Francisco first and then they're going to expand from there. All they're going to expand from there. All they're going to expand from there. All you do is you sit in this little pool of you do is you sit in this little pool of you do is you sit in this little pool of water and you get this ultrasound water and you get this ultrasound water and you get this ultrasound blasted at you for like 60 seconds, 2 blasted at you for like 60 seconds, 2 blasted at you for like 60 seconds, 2 minutes and then it's done. And it's minutes and then it's done. And it's minutes and then it's done. And it's done. And then you have an image of your done. And then you have an image of your done. And then you have an image of your whole body and because it's that fast, whole body and because it's that fast, whole body and because it's that fast, it's more affordable. It can be done it's more affordable. It can be done it's more affordable. It can be done preventatively. You can see preventatively. You can see preventatively. You can see cardiovascular structures changing over cardiovascular structures changing over cardiovascular structures changing over time. You can see other details in your time. You can see other details in your time. You can see other details in your body changing over time which allows you body changing over time which allows you body changing over time which allows you to pick up cancers earlier, allows you to pick up cancers earlier, allows you to pick up cancers earlier, allows you to pick up heart disease earlier. And I to pick up heart disease earlier. And I to pick up heart disease earlier. And I know that there are doctors who have know that there are doctors who have know that there are doctors who have been concerned that this preemptive been concerned that this preemptive been concerned that this preemptive imaging is going to be something that imaging is going to be something that imaging is going to be something that gets people into false positives, right?

gets people into false positives, right? gets people into false positives, right? That they're going to identify all kinds That they're going to identify all kinds That they're going to identify all kinds of things that aren't really wrong. But of things that aren't really wrong. But of things that aren't really wrong. But we've never had imaging available at we've never had imaging available at we've never had imaging available at scale before. We actually don't know scale before. We actually don't know scale before. We actually don't know what that looks like. All of our imaging what that looks like. All of our imaging what that looks like. All of our imaging technology is reactive by definition. technology is reactive by definition. technology is reactive by definition. It's it's expensive. Not anymore. We're It's it's expensive. Not anymore. We're It's it's expensive. Not anymore. We're going to have this cheap available going to have this cheap available going to have this cheap available medical imaging that allows us at a medical imaging that allows us at a medical imaging that allows us at a population level to start to understand population level to start to understand population level to start to understand how our bodies change over time. It is how our bodies change over time. It is how our bodies change over time. It is it is a breakthrough that is going to it is a breakthrough that is going to it is a breakthrough that is going to save lives. It's a huge huge deal and I save lives. It's a huge huge deal and I save lives. It's a huge huge deal and I think it's a great example of how energy think it's a great example of how energy think it's a great example of how energy in the space is actually moving outside in the space is actually moving outside in the space is actually moving outside of these two major players. I love of these two major players. I love of these two major players. I love Midjourney as a product. Anyway, I've Midjourney as a product. Anyway, I've Midjourney as a product. Anyway, I've talked about it before and I love that talked about it before and I love that talked about it before and I love that they are choosing to bootstrap this. they are choosing to bootstrap this. they are choosing to bootstrap this. This is an example of what you can do This is an example of what you can do This is an example of what you can do when you build a successful business when you build a successful business when you build a successful business model and you say, "You know what? I model and you say, "You know what? I model and you say, "You know what? I think this is an important thing to do think this is an important thing to do think this is an important thing to do for humanity and I'm just going to do for humanity and I'm just going to do for humanity and I'm just going to do it." And I'm not beholden to it like a it." And I'm not beholden to it like a it." And I'm not beholden to it like a VC board. I can just do what I what I VC board. I can just do what I what I VC board. I can just do what I what I want to do here. And so, that's how the want to do here. And so, that's how the want to do here. And so, that's how the innovation happened. They decided to innovation happened. They decided to innovation happened. They decided to invest in it. The the founders have a invest in it. The the founders have a invest in it. The the founders have a background in hardware and device tech background in hardware and device tech background in hardware and device tech and they just went after it. I'm really and they just went after it. I'm really and they just went after it. I'm really excited to see this one come out and I excited to see this one come out and I excited to see this one come out and I will be talking more and more over the will be talking more and more over the will be talking more and more over the course of the week about other ways that course of the week about other ways that course of the week about other ways that we can be building and staying engaged we can be building and staying engaged we can be building and staying engaged outside just this model horse race. But outside just this model horse race. But outside just this model horse race. But if you want to talk about the model if you want to talk about the model if you want to talk about the model horse race, I think the case is there horse race, I think the case is there horse race, I think the case is there that Anthropic is ahead. So you tell me that Anthropic is ahead. So you tell me that Anthropic is ahead. So you tell me what you think. Do you disagree? You what you think. Do you disagree? You what you think. Do you disagree? You think OpenAI is ahead? Or do you think, think OpenAI is ahead? Or do you think, think OpenAI is ahead? Or do you think, you know, Midjourney, the energy outside you know, Midjourney, the energy outside you know, Midjourney, the energy outside the space is what matters? And then put the space is what matters? And then put the space is what matters? And then put down what you think I should cover that down what you think I should cover that down what you think I should cover that isn't OpenAI or Anthropic. Some of this isn't OpenAI or Anthropic. Some of this isn't OpenAI or Anthropic. Some of this energy outside the space that would be

energy outside the space that would be energy outside the space that would be really compelling from a story really compelling from a story really compelling from a story perspective that we should all should perspective that we should all should perspective that we should all should pay attention to that tells us why AI pay attention to that tells us why AI pay attention to that tells us why AI matters beyond just matters beyond just matters beyond just who's ahead in a particular benchmark who's ahead in a particular benchmark who's ahead in a particular benchmark score. I'd love to hear about it. score. I'd love to hear about it. score. I'd love to hear about it. Cheers.