Leopold Aschenbrenner's Warning Signal Apple Completely Missed
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I'm going to tell you what a wedding I'm going to tell you what a wedding day, an M5 chip, a margin call, and a day, an M5 chip, a margin call, and a day, an M5 chip, a margin call, and a guy that's been involved in Enron 20 guy that's been involved in Enron 20 guy that's been involved in Enron 20 years ago all have in common. And you years ago all have in common. And you years ago all have in common. And you might not think that those have anything might not think that those have anything might not think that those have anything in common, but by the end of this video, in common, but by the end of this video, in common, but by the end of this video, you're going to get the whole story, and you're going to get the whole story, and you're going to get the whole story, and you're going to see what I see. And I'm you're going to see what I see. And I'm you're going to see what I see. And I'm Nate Beacham. So, what I do is I dig Nate Beacham. So, what I do is I dig Nate Beacham. So, what I do is I dig under the news, and I find the stories under the news, and I find the stories under the news, and I find the stories that people miss. And so, the story here that people miss. And so, the story here that people miss. And so, the story here is the story of Leopold Aschenbrenner is the story of Leopold Aschenbrenner is the story of Leopold Aschenbrenner and Apple. And nobody has told that and Apple. And nobody has told that and Apple. And nobody has told that story. Nobody has laid that out. But I story. Nobody has laid that out. But I story. Nobody has laid that out. But I want to lay out for you how those two want to lay out for you how those two want to lay out for you how those two stories are the key stories of 2026 when stories are the key stories of 2026 when stories are the key stories of 2026 when it comes to thinking about investment in it comes to thinking about investment in it comes to thinking about investment in AI because they exemplify such different AI because they exemplify such different AI because they exemplify such different strategies. So, we're going to get into strategies. So, we're going to get into strategies. So, we're going to get into all of it. I can't wait to tell you. all of it. I can't wait to tell you. all of it. I can't wait to tell you. Now, Leopold Aschenbrenner is an Now, Leopold Aschenbrenner is an Now, Leopold Aschenbrenner is an investor. And he started out his career investor. And he started out his career investor. And he started out his career in AI. He was obviously working at the in AI. He was obviously working at the in AI. He was obviously working at the major labs. He then wrote a famous paper major labs. He then wrote a famous paper major labs. He then wrote a famous paper called Situational Awareness, and on the called Situational Awareness, and on the called Situational Awareness, and on the back of that, he raised a fund, and he back of that, he raised a fund, and he back of that, he raised a fund, and he did very, very well last year, and did did very, very well last year, and did did very, very well last year, and did even better this year. Like he's he's even better this year. Like he's he's even better this year. Like he's he's increased his returns this year at least increased his returns this year at least increased his returns this year at least until recently. And his whole thesis until recently. And his whole thesis until recently. And his whole thesis is that you can predictably understand is that you can predictably understand is that you can predictably understand where to invest in AI by reasoning back where to invest in AI by reasoning back where to invest in AI by reasoning back from compute requirements, and you can from compute requirements, and you can from compute requirements, and you can understand, "Hey, you know what? Based understand, "Hey, you know what? Based understand, "Hey, you know what? Based on compute, these are the companies that on compute, these are the companies that on compute, these are the companies that are in the supply chain that we can are in the supply chain that we can are in the supply chain that we can invest in." And he invested on that invest in." And he invested on that invest in." And he invested on that basis because he said, "You know what?
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basis because he said, "You know what? basis because he said, "You know what? Labs are going to need a lot of compute. Labs are going to need a lot of compute. Labs are going to need a lot of compute. I would know. I was there." I would know. I was there." I would know. I was there." And he did very well. I think he got And he did very well. I think he got And he did very well. I think he got something like 20x returns last year, something like 20x returns last year, something like 20x returns last year, and I think until very recently, he was and I think until very recently, he was and I think until very recently, he was up over 2x again this year. Whatever the up over 2x again this year. Whatever the up over 2x again this year. Whatever the exact numbers are, the point is he did exact numbers are, the point is he did exact numbers are, the point is he did disproportionately well to the point disproportionately well to the point disproportionately well to the point where every investment fund manager where every investment fund manager where every investment fund manager started getting asked, "What are you started getting asked, "What are you started getting asked, "What are you doing about the Leopold Aschenbrenner doing about the Leopold Aschenbrenner doing about the Leopold Aschenbrenner Situational Awareness strategy? If Situational Awareness strategy? If Situational Awareness strategy? If you're not doing something about it, why you're not doing something about it, why you're not doing something about it, why aren't you?" Even Jane Street Capital, aren't you?" Even Jane Street Capital, aren't you?" Even Jane Street Capital, which is notoriously a company that which is notoriously a company that which is notoriously a company that prides itself on investing its own money prides itself on investing its own money prides itself on investing its own money in its own strategies took a position in its own strategies took a position in its own strategies took a position with Leopold's fund because they thought with Leopold's fund because they thought with Leopold's fund because they thought it was so high potential. And then it it was so high potential. And then it it was so high potential. And then it all came crashing down. And it came all came crashing down. And it came all came crashing down. And it came crashing down in just the last few days. crashing down in just the last few days. crashing down in just the last few days. Part of how he's doing well Part of how he's doing well Part of how he's doing well is that he is leveraged. And so what we is that he is leveraged. And so what we is that he is leveraged. And so what we mean by that, regardless of the exact mean by that, regardless of the exact mean by that, regardless of the exact number, is that he is borrowing money to number, is that he is borrowing money to number, is that he is borrowing money to invest in his high conviction AI invest in his high conviction AI invest in his high conviction AI products. Now, if you're not an products. Now, if you're not an products. Now, if you're not an investor, investor, investor, uh borrowing money to invest might sound uh borrowing money to invest might sound uh borrowing money to invest might sound crazy, but it's actually something that crazy, but it's actually something that crazy, but it's actually something that people do on Wall Street a lot. Some of people do on Wall Street a lot. Some of people do on Wall Street a lot. Some of them do it well, many of them don't do them do it well, many of them don't do them do it well, many of them don't do it well. It is certainly higher risk it well. It is certainly higher risk it well. It is certainly higher risk because if you're leveraged, if you have because if you're leveraged, if you have because if you're leveraged, if you have borrowed money, when you when you go up borrowed money, when you when you go up borrowed money, when you when you go up on the stocks, you go up faster. And on the stocks, you go up faster. And on the stocks, you go up faster. And when you go down on the stocks, you go when you go down on the stocks, you go when you go down on the stocks, you go down faster. And that's the risk you down faster. And that's the risk you down faster. And that's the risk you take. Now, Leopold had conviction, he take. Now, Leopold had conviction, he take. Now, Leopold had conviction, he had these returns behind them, and he had these returns behind them, and he had these returns behind them, and he had leverage.
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had leverage. had leverage. And critically, And critically, And critically, he caught the attention of what I would he caught the attention of what I would he caught the attention of what I would describe as one of the original wolves describe as one of the original wolves describe as one of the original wolves of Wall Street, Ken Griffin. This is the of Wall Street, Ken Griffin. This is the of Wall Street, Ken Griffin. This is the guy who has investment history back to guy who has investment history back to guy who has investment history back to the Enron deal. Like he has been a the Enron deal. Like he has been a the Enron deal. Like he has been a player for a long time. player for a long time. player for a long time. And And And there's a buying opportunity when there's a buying opportunity when there's a buying opportunity when there's too much leverage on the table there's too much leverage on the table there's too much leverage on the table if you know how to take advantage of if you know how to take advantage of if you know how to take advantage of that. And Ken Griffin and his company that. And Ken Griffin and his company that. And Ken Griffin and his company Citadel understood that. And so what Citadel understood that. And so what Citadel understood that. And so what happened over the last week, happened over the last week, happened over the last week, I have people who are in my DMs saying, I have people who are in my DMs saying, I have people who are in my DMs saying, "This was market manipulation." I assure "This was market manipulation." I assure "This was market manipulation." I assure you no charges will be filed. There is you no charges will be filed. There is you no charges will be filed. There is nothing here that Wall Street would find nothing here that Wall Street would find nothing here that Wall Street would find illegal or the SEC would be concerned illegal or the SEC would be concerned illegal or the SEC would be concerned about. It is the ordinary course of about. It is the ordinary course of about. It is the ordinary course of business when you're in Wall Street. business when you're in Wall Street. business when you're in Wall Street. That's just how it goes. Citadel Capital That's just how it goes. Citadel Capital That's just how it goes. Citadel Capital released an investor's note, which they released an investor's note, which they released an investor's note, which they do all the time. That's not unusual, do all the time. That's not unusual, do all the time. That's not unusual, on Tuesday. on Tuesday. on Tuesday. This is after a few weeks of the AI This is after a few weeks of the AI This is after a few weeks of the AI trade getting hammered after a Korean trade getting hammered after a Korean trade getting hammered after a Korean company called SK Hynix launched their company called SK Hynix launched their company called SK Hynix launched their IPO and sagged a little bit after their IPO and sagged a little bit after their IPO and sagged a little bit after their IPO. And so there's already some IPO. And so there's already some IPO. And so there's already some pressure on Leopold's strategy because pressure on Leopold's strategy because pressure on Leopold's strategy because we've had a July that is not as up as he we've had a July that is not as up as he we've had a July that is not as up as he probably would have wanted it to be. So probably would have wanted it to be. So probably would have wanted it to be. So in that context, note comes out. Note is in that context, note comes out. Note is in that context, note comes out. Note is not about AI. Note is about a Federal not about AI. Note is about a Federal not about AI. Note is about a Federal Reserve rate hike. Sounds very Reserve rate hike. Sounds very Reserve rate hike. Sounds very innocuous.
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innocuous. innocuous. But what Citadel says in their note and But what Citadel says in their note and But what Citadel says in their note and they are totally allowed to say this. they are totally allowed to say this. they are totally allowed to say this. Anybody can have any opinion they want. Anybody can have any opinion they want. Anybody can have any opinion they want. It's just an opinion note. They say, "We It's just an opinion note. They say, "We It's just an opinion note. They say, "We think think think that the Federal Reserve is going to that the Federal Reserve is going to that the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates." Now when you raise rates, raise rates." Now when you raise rates, raise rates." Now when you raise rates, you make money more expensive. And when you make money more expensive. And when you make money more expensive. And when you make money more expensive, guess you make money more expensive, guess you make money more expensive, guess what? what? what? AI trade looks less attractive because AI trade looks less attractive because AI trade looks less attractive because at the end of the day, you're increasing at the end of the day, you're increasing at the end of the day, you're increasing the price of money. And so anything the price of money. And so anything the price of money. And so anything that's at all volatile or risky or that that's at all volatile or risky or that that's at all volatile or risky or that has has received some pressure has has received some pressure has has received some pressure selling-wise in July, which AI had, selling-wise in July, which AI had, selling-wise in July, which AI had, is going to look less attractive. In is going to look less attractive. In is going to look less attractive. In other words, Citadel releases this note other words, Citadel releases this note other words, Citadel releases this note and something predictable happens. More and something predictable happens. More and something predictable happens. More selling pressure on the AI trade, which selling pressure on the AI trade, which selling pressure on the AI trade, which means more pressure on Leopold and the means more pressure on Leopold and the means more pressure on Leopold and the situational awareness strategy, which situational awareness strategy, which situational awareness strategy, which means that because he has leverage, that means that because he has leverage, that means that because he has leverage, that pressure disproportionately falls on his pressure disproportionately falls on his pressure disproportionately falls on his fund. You can sometimes have so much fund. You can sometimes have so much fund. You can sometimes have so much leverage that your broker will call you leverage that your broker will call you leverage that your broker will call you and say, "I need you to put more capital and say, "I need you to put more capital and say, "I need you to put more capital into the fund so that we can cover into the fund so that we can cover into the fund so that we can cover red losses that we're seeing in your red losses that we're seeing in your red losses that we're seeing in your portfolio. You need to show that you're portfolio. You need to show that you're portfolio. You need to show that you're liquid. Put more capital into the fund."
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liquid. Put more capital into the fund." liquid. Put more capital into the fund." That is what was happening to Leopold That is what was happening to Leopold That is what was happening to Leopold this week. And this is where it gets this week. And this is where it gets this week. And this is where it gets very Wolf of Wall Street. His wedding very Wolf of Wall Street. His wedding very Wolf of Wall Street. His wedding was this past weekend. He was getting was this past weekend. He was getting was this past weekend. He was getting ready for the wedding and all of this ready for the wedding and all of this ready for the wedding and all of this was happening. You know who doesn't want was happening. You know who doesn't want was happening. You know who doesn't want to get what's called a margin call on to get what's called a margin call on to get what's called a margin call on their wedding day? Leopold doesn't, but their wedding day? Leopold doesn't, but their wedding day? Leopold doesn't, but neither do I. Nobody wants a margin call neither do I. Nobody wants a margin call neither do I. Nobody wants a margin call on their wedding day. And Ken Griffin on their wedding day. And Ken Griffin on their wedding day. And Ken Griffin steps in steps in steps in on Thursday. And he says, on Thursday. And he says, on Thursday. And he says, "Let me take care of this." And what he "Let me take care of this." And what he "Let me take care of this." And what he does is he buys Leopold's entire public does is he buys Leopold's entire public does is he buys Leopold's entire public equities book. So, a book is like your equities book. So, a book is like your equities book. So, a book is like your portfolio of orders. He just buys it up. portfolio of orders. He just buys it up. portfolio of orders. He just buys it up. And from Citadel's perspective, they get And from Citadel's perspective, they get And from Citadel's perspective, they get into the AI trade, which they can have into the AI trade, which they can have into the AI trade, which they can have long-term conviction about, at a great long-term conviction about, at a great long-term conviction about, at a great discount on the entry price. And because discount on the entry price. And because discount on the entry price. And because Citadel has a great reputation on the Citadel has a great reputation on the Citadel has a great reputation on the street, when news breaks during Thursday street, when news breaks during Thursday street, when news breaks during Thursday that Citadel has bought that public that Citadel has bought that public that Citadel has bought that public equities book, the fact that they did equities book, the fact that they did equities book, the fact that they did that makes them three or four billion that makes them three or four billion that makes them three or four billion dollars over the course of the day, dollars over the course of the day, dollars over the course of the day, because there's so much confidence in because there's so much confidence in because there's so much confidence in the market in their choices. Before we the market in their choices. Before we the market in their choices. Before we get to the Apple piece, let me ladder get to the Apple piece, let me ladder get to the Apple piece, let me ladder this up into a story for you.
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this up into a story for you. this up into a story for you. Leopold had high conviction on a Leopold had high conviction on a Leopold had high conviction on a particular thesis for AI. He did really, particular thesis for AI. He did really, particular thesis for AI. He did really, really well investing in that thesis. really well investing in that thesis. really well investing in that thesis. He got in over his head a little bit on He got in over his head a little bit on He got in over his head a little bit on leverage. And now that thesis is still leverage. And now that thesis is still leverage. And now that thesis is still intact, but it's effectively being intact, but it's effectively being intact, but it's effectively being separated out, and the public part of separated out, and the public part of separated out, and the public part of that thesis is being traded by Citadel, that thesis is being traded by Citadel, that thesis is being traded by Citadel, and the private part is something that and the private part is something that and the private part is something that Leopold is still managing himself. Apple Leopold is still managing himself. Apple Leopold is still managing himself. Apple is not an investment story. Apple is not is not an investment story. Apple is not is not an investment story. Apple is not a finance story. a finance story. a finance story. Apple is all about long-term advantage Apple is all about long-term advantage Apple is all about long-term advantage acquired by investing in hardware and acquired by investing in hardware and acquired by investing in hardware and customer experiences. Apple has not a customer experiences. Apple has not a customer experiences. Apple has not a two-year plan on AI, not a 10-year two-year plan on AI, not a 10-year two-year plan on AI, not a 10-year vision. Apple is thinking in terms of 20 vision. Apple is thinking in terms of 20 vision. Apple is thinking in terms of 20 years and 30 years down the road when years and 30 years down the road when years and 30 years down the road when they think about AI. they think about AI. they think about AI. And what they're doing And what they're doing And what they're doing is they are after a decade or more, in a is they are after a decade or more, in a is they are after a decade or more, in a position where they are designing their position where they are designing their position where they are designing their chips. Their chips are really, really chips. Their chips are really, really chips. Their chips are really, really good at local inference, by which I mean good at local inference, by which I mean good at local inference, by which I mean using a model locally, using a model locally, using a model locally, generating tokens locally, doing work generating tokens locally, doing work generating tokens locally, doing work with AI locally on your Apple machine.
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with AI locally on your Apple machine. with AI locally on your Apple machine. It turns out that when you invest in It turns out that when you invest in It turns out that when you invest in that, you get to be the default winner, that, you get to be the default winner, that, you get to be the default winner, no matter what model people are using. no matter what model people are using. no matter what model people are using. And that is why startup after startup in And that is why startup after startup in And that is why startup after startup in the valley uses Macs. That is why when the valley uses Macs. That is why when the valley uses Macs. That is why when you are trying to launch Open Claw back you are trying to launch Open Claw back you are trying to launch Open Claw back in February, everyone says, "Use a Mac in February, everyone says, "Use a Mac in February, everyone says, "Use a Mac mini." That is why when we're looking at mini." That is why when we're looking at mini." That is why when we're looking at the future of Apple releases, we are the future of Apple releases, we are the future of Apple releases, we are thinking a lot less as AI people about thinking a lot less as AI people about thinking a lot less as AI people about the software and a lot more about what the software and a lot more about what the software and a lot more about what is the next chip going to look like. is the next chip going to look like. is the next chip going to look like. What is the M6 going to look like? We What is the M6 going to look like? We What is the M6 going to look like? We have M5 right now. How fast is it going have M5 right now. How fast is it going have M5 right now. How fast is it going to be? to be? to be? And that is why Apple appointed John And that is why Apple appointed John And that is why Apple appointed John Ternus to lead the company because guess Ternus to lead the company because guess Ternus to lead the company because guess what his background is in? It's in what his background is in? It's in what his background is in? It's in chips. It's in chips. He has been at the chips. It's in chips. He has been at the chips. It's in chips. He has been at the forefront of the heart of Apple's forefront of the heart of Apple's forefront of the heart of Apple's technology ecosystem. And you might technology ecosystem. And you might technology ecosystem. And you might think, you know, Steve Jobs would want think, you know, Steve Jobs would want think, you know, Steve Jobs would want an ecosystem guy, a a CX guy, someone an ecosystem guy, a a CX guy, someone an ecosystem guy, a a CX guy, someone who cares about the customer experience who cares about the customer experience who cares about the customer experience of holding an Apple product and making of holding an Apple product and making of holding an Apple product and making the iPhone really magical. But I would the iPhone really magical. But I would the iPhone really magical. But I would argue what Apple really needs is someone argue what Apple really needs is someone argue what Apple really needs is someone who understands that their chips play who understands that their chips play who understands that their chips play makes them a default winner in the AI makes them a default winner in the AI makes them a default winner in the AI race, no matter what lab wins, no matter race, no matter what lab wins, no matter race, no matter what lab wins, no matter whether open source wins, no matter whether open source wins, no matter whether open source wins, no matter whether a frontier lab wins, you still whether a frontier lab wins, you still whether a frontier lab wins, you still need the chips to effectively generate need the chips to effectively generate need the chips to effectively generate tokens on your machine, and that gives tokens on your machine, and that gives tokens on your machine, and that gives you so many options. And so all Apple you so many options. And so all Apple you so many options. And so all Apple has to do to win, and it's not a has to do to win, and it's not a has to do to win, and it's not a guaranteed win, but it's a really strong guaranteed win, but it's a really strong guaranteed win, but it's a really strong position. All they have to do is they position. All they have to do is they position. All they have to do is they have to keep memory prices and chip
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have to keep memory prices and chip have to keep memory prices and chip prices enough in check that they can prices enough in check that they can prices enough in check that they can make good Apple margins on their make good Apple margins on their make good Apple margins on their hardware play. And then all they have to hardware play. And then all they have to hardware play. And then all they have to do is sit back and continue to invest in do is sit back and continue to invest in do is sit back and continue to invest in that long-term hardware position, that long-term hardware position, that long-term hardware position, and they have so many options to win no and they have so many options to win no and they have so many options to win no matter who's on the table. And this, by matter who's on the table. And this, by matter who's on the table. And this, by the way, the way, the way, when you're playing smart like this, when you're playing smart like this, when you're playing smart like this, this gives you a win this gives you a win this gives you a win no matter what because if they want to no matter what because if they want to no matter what because if they want to get a model, as they have, they go to get a model, as they have, they go to get a model, as they have, they go to Google, they cut a deal, they go to Google, they cut a deal, they go to Google, they cut a deal, they go to Anthropic, maybe they cut a deal there, Anthropic, maybe they cut a deal there, Anthropic, maybe they cut a deal there, and they get access to a frontier model. and they get access to a frontier model. and they get access to a frontier model. And they have the cash on hand to do And they have the cash on hand to do And they have the cash on hand to do that, and they can deliver the customer that, and they can deliver the customer that, and they can deliver the customer experience, and it's all backed by the experience, and it's all backed by the experience, and it's all backed by the chips that they have. Now, it may seem chips that they have. Now, it may seem chips that they have. Now, it may seem like I am setting up this narrative, so like I am setting up this narrative, so like I am setting up this narrative, so Apple is the obvious winner, and if you Apple is the obvious winner, and if you Apple is the obvious winner, and if you compare the two, Leopold is the obvious compare the two, Leopold is the obvious compare the two, Leopold is the obvious loser because he had a very bad July. loser because he had a very bad July. loser because he had a very bad July. I don't think that's true. It is I don't think that's true. It is I don't think that's true. It is actually really, really hard to make actually really, really hard to make actually really, really hard to make returns in the market and to bank them. returns in the market and to bank them. returns in the market and to bank them. And Leopold has been able to do that. I And Leopold has been able to do that. I And Leopold has been able to do that. I don't think he's going to be out of the don't think he's going to be out of the don't think he's going to be out of the investment conversation for long. He is investment conversation for long. He is investment conversation for long. He is still managing a fund with billions of still managing a fund with billions of still managing a fund with billions of dollars in private startup investments.
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dollars in private startup investments. dollars in private startup investments. He will be back in the conversation. He will be back in the conversation. He will be back in the conversation. This is a long race. I think one of the This is a long race. I think one of the This is a long race. I think one of the things I take away is that if you're things I take away is that if you're things I take away is that if you're thinking about AI investments, you thinking about AI investments, you thinking about AI investments, you really have to be thinking in the same really have to be thinking in the same really have to be thinking in the same decade and 20-year time frames as Apple decade and 20-year time frames as Apple decade and 20-year time frames as Apple is. is. is. And I think that one of the things I And I think that one of the things I And I think that one of the things I notice is that if you're thinking in notice is that if you're thinking in notice is that if you're thinking in those time frames, you probably are those time frames, you probably are those time frames, you probably are going to take less leverage because going to take less leverage because going to take less leverage because there's room for a lot of volatility there's room for a lot of volatility there's room for a lot of volatility along the way to 10- and 20-year time along the way to 10- and 20-year time along the way to 10- and 20-year time horizons. There's going to be days when horizons. There's going to be days when horizons. There's going to be days when the stock market is up, days when it's the stock market is up, days when it's the stock market is up, days when it's down. You want to be in a position where down. You want to be in a position where down. You want to be in a position where you're capitalizing over the long term. you're capitalizing over the long term. you're capitalizing over the long term. You can be in a fantastic hardware You can be in a fantastic hardware You can be in a fantastic hardware position, but you have to intentionally position, but you have to intentionally position, but you have to intentionally capitalize on it to get where you want capitalize on it to get where you want capitalize on it to get where you want to go. I made a video a few months ago to go. I made a video a few months ago to go. I made a video a few months ago that a bunch of you watched about the that a bunch of you watched about the that a bunch of you watched about the idea that if Apple wanted to, they could idea that if Apple wanted to, they could idea that if Apple wanted to, they could get into a position to offer effective get into a position to offer effective get into a position to offer effective local compute to lots of businesses for local compute to lots of businesses for local compute to lots of businesses for AI. And so, I think that one of the AI. And so, I think that one of the AI. And so, I think that one of the things that's really interesting right things that's really interesting right things that's really interesting right now is that you can have all of those now is that you can have all of those now is that you can have all of those advantages, you can be reaping a lot of advantages, you can be reaping a lot of advantages, you can be reaping a lot of passive margins from being in a good passive margins from being in a good passive margins from being in a good position on the chips business, and you position on the chips business, and you position on the chips business, and you still may be under monetized in AI still may be under monetized in AI still may be under monetized in AI because you're not fully realizing how because you're not fully realizing how because you're not fully realizing how impactful AI will be across the entire impactful AI will be across the entire impactful AI will be across the entire customer spectrum from from enterprise customer spectrum from from enterprise customer spectrum from from enterprise customers to small business customers to customers to small business customers to customers to small business customers to end consumers like you and me. So, it end consumers like you and me. So, it end consumers like you and me. So, it might seem like Apple's just the default might seem like Apple's just the default might seem like Apple's just the default winner in this story, but I think it's a winner in this story, but I think it's a winner in this story, but I think it's a little bit more complicated, and I'm little bit more complicated, and I'm little bit more complicated, and I'm sharing this because I'd love your sharing this because I'd love your sharing this because I'd love your perspective. Sound off in the comments.
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perspective. Sound off in the comments. perspective. Sound off in the comments. Let me know, who do you think has got Let me know, who do you think has got Let me know, who do you think has got the better strategy here? How would you the better strategy here? How would you the better strategy here? How would you play this? How do you think about AI as play this? How do you think about AI as play this? How do you think about AI as a story that you're invested in? And a story that you're invested in? And a story that you're invested in? And I've got news for you. You may not be a I've got news for you. You may not be a I've got news for you. You may not be a stock market investor, but because of stock market investor, but because of stock market investor, but because of AI's impact on the world, with our time, AI's impact on the world, with our time, AI's impact on the world, with our time, with our attention, with what we're with our attention, with what we're with our attention, with what we're doing with our tools, we are all doing with our tools, we are all doing with our tools, we are all invested in AI. And I hope that this has invested in AI. And I hope that this has invested in AI. And I hope that this has been a reminder to you that there are so been a reminder to you that there are so been a reminder to you that there are so many different ways to approach the many different ways to approach the many different ways to approach the future of AI. And you have a lot of future of AI. And you have a lot of future of AI. And you have a lot of options on the table. What's yours?
Summary
This analysis links seemingly disparate topics like a wedding and an M5 chip to the investment strategies in AI, referencing Leopold Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awareness" paper. The key takeaway is that Aschenbrenner's success in AI investing, driven by reasoning from compute requirements, spectacularly collapsed, serving as a cautionary tale for investment funds.