Two Wars, No Clear Exit Plan. Now What? | TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

Hi everyone, I'm Helen Wolters. I am Hi everyone, I'm Helen Wolters. I am head of media and curation at TED. head of media and curation at TED. head of media and curation at TED. Welcome to another edition of TED Welcome to another edition of TED Welcome to another edition of TED Explains the World with political Explains the World with political Explains the World with political scientist Ian Bremer. Today we are going scientist Ian Bremer. Today we are going scientist Ian Bremer. Today we are going to explain the current and future states to explain the current and future states to explain the current and future states of the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Ian, as of the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Ian, as of the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Ian, as always, thank you so much for being here always, thank you so much for being here always, thank you so much for being here to help us try to make sense of things. to help us try to make sense of things. to help us try to make sense of things. >> Hi Helen, good to be back with you. All >> Hi Helen, good to be back with you. All >> Hi Helen, good to be back with you. All right, let's start in Iran, which is now right, let's start in Iran, which is now right, let's start in Iran, which is now entering its sixth month of conflict entering its sixth month of conflict entering its sixth month of conflict with the United States. And in just the with the United States. And in just the with the United States. And in just the last two weeks, we've seen attacks. last two weeks, we've seen attacks. last two weeks, we've seen attacks. We've seen counterattacks. None of the We've seen counterattacks. None of the We've seen counterattacks. None of the major issues between the two nations major issues between the two nations major issues between the two nations seem to be coming anywhere close to seem to be coming anywhere close to seem to be coming anywhere close to being resolved. So, what is your read of being resolved. So, what is your read of being resolved. So, what is your read of what is going on and what should we what is going on and what should we what is going on and what should we actually be paying attention to? actually be paying attention to? actually be paying attention to? >> So, I guess there are two different >> So, I guess there are two different >> So, I guess there are two different components that we need to think about. components that we need to think about. components that we need to think about. The first is why it is that the war is The first is why it is that the war is The first is why it is that the war is still going on uh given the clear costs still going on uh given the clear costs still going on uh given the clear costs um to everyone involved um in the United um to everyone involved um in the United um to everyone involved um in the United States around the world and to the States around the world and to the States around the world and to the Iranians. Um and and the second is how Iranians. Um and and the second is how Iranians. Um and and the second is how might we think about the potential for a might we think about the potential for a might we think about the potential for a resolution? So first why is it resolution? So first why is it resolution? So first why is it happening? because we had a a memorandum happening? because we had a a memorandum happening? because we had a a memorandum of understanding uh that was signed of understanding uh that was signed of understanding uh that was signed between uh the US and the Iranians and between uh the US and the Iranians and between uh the US and the Iranians and it was only a matter of weeks before it was only a matter of weeks before it was only a matter of weeks before that fell apart. And the issue here is that fell apart. And the issue here is that fell apart. And the issue here is that President Trump and the Iranian that President Trump and the Iranian that President Trump and the Iranian military leadership military leadership military leadership uh really fundamentally disagree about uh really fundamentally disagree about uh really fundamentally disagree about how much leverage they each have over

how much leverage they each have over how much leverage they each have over the outcome. This is very different from the outcome. This is very different from the outcome. This is very different from what we saw between Trump and Xihinping what we saw between Trump and Xihinping what we saw between Trump and Xihinping when he hit out really hard on the when he hit out really hard on the when he hit out really hard on the tariffs and created a functional boycott tariffs and created a functional boycott tariffs and created a functional boycott and the Chinese hit back with their own and the Chinese hit back with their own and the Chinese hit back with their own tariffs and then the critical minerals tariffs and then the critical minerals tariffs and then the critical minerals licensing regime. And Trump realized, I licensing regime. And Trump realized, I licensing regime. And Trump realized, I do not want to get into a tit fortat do not want to get into a tit fortat do not want to get into a tit fortat continued fight with the Chinese. This continued fight with the Chinese. This continued fight with the Chinese. This is going to hurt me too much. I need to is going to hurt me too much. I need to is going to hurt me too much. I need to back away and I need to ensure back away and I need to ensure back away and I need to ensure stability. The Iranians have hit Trump stability. The Iranians have hit Trump stability. The Iranians have hit Trump back pretty hard. Hit the Americans back pretty hard. Hit the Americans back pretty hard. Hit the Americans back. They've hit them back in blocking back. They've hit them back in blocking back. They've hit them back in blocking the straight and they've hit the back in the straight and they've hit the back in the straight and they've hit the back in attacking targets across the Gulf, both attacking targets across the Gulf, both attacking targets across the Gulf, both infrastructure targets and American infrastructure targets and American infrastructure targets and American bases. bases. bases. But the Iranians believe they can But the Iranians believe they can But the Iranians believe they can continue to do that until they have continue to do that until they have continue to do that until they have control over the strait until they're control over the strait until they're control over the strait until they're given that control by the United States given that control by the United States given that control by the United States seated to by the United States so that seated to by the United States so that seated to by the United States so that they are able to get a lot of money um they are able to get a lot of money um they are able to get a lot of money um and determine who does and doesn't go and determine who does and doesn't go and determine who does and doesn't go through.

through. through. President Trump's perspective is, yeah, President Trump's perspective is, yeah, President Trump's perspective is, yeah, they they may have been able to disrupt they they may have been able to disrupt they they may have been able to disrupt the strait, but I can continue to blow the strait, but I can continue to blow the strait, but I can continue to blow these guys up and ultimately they're these guys up and ultimately they're these guys up and ultimately they're going to have to capitulate. So, I don't going to have to capitulate. So, I don't going to have to capitulate. So, I don't accept that they can continue to wait me accept that they can continue to wait me accept that they can continue to wait me out. I need to show them by continuing out. I need to show them by continuing out. I need to show them by continuing to hit them harder that they're going to to hit them harder that they're going to to hit them harder that they're going to be forced to back away from the deal be forced to back away from the deal be forced to back away from the deal that was signed in the memorandum which that was signed in the memorandum which that was signed in the memorandum which Trump believes is the Iranians can sell Trump believes is the Iranians can sell Trump believes is the Iranians can sell oil but they don't have control of the oil but they don't have control of the oil but they don't have control of the strait. The Iranians believe no we have strait. The Iranians believe no we have strait. The Iranians believe no we have control. So that that's why we are still control. So that that's why we are still control. So that that's why we are still seeing fighting. I am you note that I'm seeing fighting. I am you note that I'm seeing fighting. I am you note that I'm mentioning fighting between Iran and the mentioning fighting between Iran and the mentioning fighting between Iran and the US and the blockade. I am not talking US and the blockade. I am not talking US and the blockade. I am not talking about the Houthis. There is a secondary about the Houthis. There is a secondary about the Houthis. There is a secondary fight going on between the Houthis and fight going on between the Houthis and fight going on between the Houthis and the Saudis. The Houthis are an important the Saudis. The Houthis are an important the Saudis. The Houthis are an important proxy of Iran. They see that they have proxy of Iran. They see that they have proxy of Iran. They see that they have more ability to get cash out of Saudi more ability to get cash out of Saudi more ability to get cash out of Saudi Arabia because the straight of Hormuz is Arabia because the straight of Hormuz is Arabia because the straight of Hormuz is now shut down. So they're demanding a now shut down. So they're demanding a now shut down. So they're demanding a whole bunch of money. They want $10 whole bunch of money. They want $10 whole bunch of money. They want $10 billion upfront from the Saudis to billion upfront from the Saudis to billion upfront from the Saudis to ensure safe packet passage. The Saudis ensure safe packet passage. The Saudis ensure safe packet passage. The Saudis don't want to give them that. But the don't want to give them that. But the don't want to give them that. But the Americans have no part of that Americans have no part of that Americans have no part of that negotiation. The Iranians are telling negotiation. The Iranians are telling negotiation. The Iranians are telling the Houthis to go, but the Iranians have the Houthis to go, but the Iranians have the Houthis to go, but the Iranians have no part of that negotiation. And as long no part of that negotiation. And as long no part of that negotiation. And as long as the Saudis pay off the Houthis

as the Saudis pay off the Houthis as the Saudis pay off the Houthis sufficiently, which I suspect they will sufficiently, which I suspect they will sufficiently, which I suspect they will do, and they have been paying for tens do, and they have been paying for tens do, and they have been paying for tens of thousands of salaries in the Houthi of thousands of salaries in the Houthi of thousands of salaries in the Houthi controlled territories of Yemen for the controlled territories of Yemen for the controlled territories of Yemen for the last few months, as long as they up that last few months, as long as they up that last few months, as long as they up that rate sufficiently, that's not likely to rate sufficiently, that's not likely to rate sufficiently, that's not likely to be an ongoing fight. So, we're talking be an ongoing fight. So, we're talking be an ongoing fight. So, we're talking about Iran versus the US. um the about Iran versus the US. um the about Iran versus the US. um the Israelis for the time being not a direct Israelis for the time being not a direct Israelis for the time being not a direct part of that war though obviously they part of that war though obviously they part of that war though obviously they did initially go to war with the did initially go to war with the did initially go to war with the Americans back in February that's why Americans back in February that's why Americans back in February that's why it's still going on now the other thing it's still going on now the other thing it's still going on now the other thing we need to talk about is the fact that we need to talk about is the fact that we need to talk about is the fact that despite the war still going on despite the war still going on despite the war still going on the Americans and the Iranians continue the Americans and the Iranians continue the Americans and the Iranians continue to act with a lot of restraint to act with a lot of restraint to act with a lot of restraint yes the straight is closed But the yes the straight is closed But the yes the straight is closed But the Americans are not hitting out at the Americans are not hitting out at the Americans are not hitting out at the leadership of Iran or the military leadership of Iran or the military leadership of Iran or the military leadership of Iran. They're not trying leadership of Iran. They're not trying leadership of Iran. They're not trying to kill the new supreme leader. They're to kill the new supreme leader. They're to kill the new supreme leader. They're hitting very few actual infrastructure hitting very few actual infrastructure hitting very few actual infrastructure targets. They've hit a couple bridges, a targets. They've hit a couple bridges, a targets. They've hit a couple bridges, a power plant, a desalination plant, but power plant, a desalination plant, but power plant, a desalination plant, but there are thousands of those in Iran.

there are thousands of those in Iran. there are thousands of those in Iran. Most of the focus of the two weeks of Most of the focus of the two weeks of Most of the focus of the two weeks of strikes, 11 days of strikes has been at strikes, 11 days of strikes has been at strikes, 11 days of strikes has been at military targets. And the Iranians have military targets. And the Iranians have military targets. And the Iranians have hit back basically in a tit fortat way. hit back basically in a tit fortat way. hit back basically in a tit fortat way. So they get one desalination plant hit, So they get one desalination plant hit, So they get one desalination plant hit, they hit one. They get a bridge hit, they hit one. They get a bridge hit, they hit one. They get a bridge hit, they hit a bridge. But there's been a they hit a bridge. But there's been a they hit a bridge. But there's been a great they military they take military great they military they take military great they military they take military hits they aim at US base in Jordan and hits they aim at US base in Jordan and hits they aim at US base in Jordan and they cause uh some casualties there but they cause uh some casualties there but they cause uh some casualties there but but this is very far from the kind of but this is very far from the kind of but this is very far from the kind of allout war that we had back at the end allout war that we had back at the end allout war that we had back at the end of February the beginning of March and of February the beginning of March and of February the beginning of March and that is despite the fact that Trump that is despite the fact that Trump that is despite the fact that Trump continues to threaten that he's going to continues to threaten that he's going to continues to threaten that he's going to destroy all their infrastructure and destroy all their infrastructure and destroy all their infrastructure and that he'll re hell upon the Iranians and that he'll re hell upon the Iranians and that he'll re hell upon the Iranians and he has of course a very substantial he has of course a very substantial he has of course a very substantial military, the world's largest, which is military, the world's largest, which is military, the world's largest, which is positioned to do a lot more damage, but positioned to do a lot more damage, but positioned to do a lot more damage, but he's not doing that. So why is there he's not doing that. So why is there he's not doing that. So why is there this level of restraint from Trump? And this level of restraint from Trump? And this level of restraint from Trump? And the answer is that even though Trump the answer is that even though Trump the answer is that even though Trump knows the midterms are lost and even knows the midterms are lost and even knows the midterms are lost and even though he is prepared to accept higher though he is prepared to accept higher though he is prepared to accept higher oil prices for longer, oil prices for longer, oil prices for longer, he knows that the damage that the he knows that the damage that the he knows that the damage that the Iranians can do in response to the Iranians can do in response to the Iranians can do in response to the United States actually following through United States actually following through United States actually following through on the big threats that he has made are on the big threats that he has made are on the big threats that he has made are unacceptable. unacceptable in terms of unacceptable. unacceptable in terms of unacceptable. unacceptable in terms of the casualties to American soldiers and

the casualties to American soldiers and the casualties to American soldiers and military capabilities and unacceptable military capabilities and unacceptable military capabilities and unacceptable to American allies in the region across to American allies in the region across to American allies in the region across the Gulf. So that has if if the first the Gulf. So that has if if the first the Gulf. So that has if if the first set of factors that I mentioned have set of factors that I mentioned have set of factors that I mentioned have prevented us from achieving stability prevented us from achieving stability prevented us from achieving stability and reopening the strait, the second set and reopening the strait, the second set and reopening the strait, the second set of factors has prevented these of factors has prevented these of factors has prevented these resumption of hostilities from returning resumption of hostilities from returning resumption of hostilities from returning to allout war and the potential for to allout war and the potential for to allout war and the potential for broader confilration. And that that broader confilration. And that that broader confilration. And that that uncomfortable, uncomfortable, uncomfortable, unsettled, unsettled, unsettled, unstable middle ground is where we have unstable middle ground is where we have unstable middle ground is where we have now been occupied in the Middle East for now been occupied in the Middle East for now been occupied in the Middle East for the last several weeks. the last several weeks. the last several weeks. >> So how do you think or where do you >> So how do you think or where do you >> So how do you think or where do you think we go from this uncomfortable think we go from this uncomfortable think we go from this uncomfortable middle ground? Do you see or do you middle ground? Do you see or do you middle ground? Do you see or do you think that there will be even though as think that there will be even though as think that there will be even though as you say Trump has a sense of the um the you say Trump has a sense of the um the you say Trump has a sense of the um the ramifications of an escalation of war?

ramifications of an escalation of war? ramifications of an escalation of war? Do you think that we'll see that? Do you think that we'll see that? Do you think that we'll see that? >> So Trump said uh that the Iranians >> So Trump said uh that the Iranians >> So Trump said uh that the Iranians wanted to talk after all these strikes wanted to talk after all these strikes wanted to talk after all these strikes from the US. The Iranians said not true. from the US. The Iranians said not true. from the US. The Iranians said not true. Actually the US reached out to us and Actually the US reached out to us and Actually the US reached out to us and they want to talk. This is one where they want to talk. This is one where they want to talk. This is one where it's actually kind of impossible absent it's actually kind of impossible absent it's actually kind of impossible absent direct evidence to know who to believe. direct evidence to know who to believe. direct evidence to know who to believe. President Trump or the Islamic Republic President Trump or the Islamic Republic President Trump or the Islamic Republic of Iran. And that's, you know, kind of a of Iran. And that's, you know, kind of a of Iran. And that's, you know, kind of a crazy thing to say, but the the the crazy thing to say, but the the the crazy thing to say, but the the the wildness of the exaggeration from both wildness of the exaggeration from both wildness of the exaggeration from both sides over the course of this war means sides over the course of this war means sides over the course of this war means that really you need to verify uh before that really you need to verify uh before that really you need to verify uh before you're just going on the face value of you're just going on the face value of you're just going on the face value of what the statements are. What we do know what the statements are. What we do know what the statements are. What we do know uh is that we have had uh now um some uh is that we have had uh now um some uh is that we have had uh now um some back and forth conversations and a few back and forth conversations and a few back and forth conversations and a few days of the Americans holding fire even days of the Americans holding fire even days of the Americans holding fire even after Trump said that these guys uh after Trump said that these guys uh after Trump said that these guys uh don't it's useless to negotiate with don't it's useless to negotiate with don't it's useless to negotiate with them there's no point you can't trust them there's no point you can't trust them there's no point you can't trust them all of this so showing a desire on them all of this so showing a desire on them all of this so showing a desire on the part of the US to see if there is an the part of the US to see if there is an the part of the US to see if there is an offramp offramp offramp um I don't believe that the Iranians um I don't believe that the Iranians um I don't believe that the Iranians have changed their negotiating position have changed their negotiating position have changed their negotiating position one iota since the memorandum. They want one iota since the memorandum. They want one iota since the memorandum. They want control. Now, privately, what Trump has control. Now, privately, what Trump has control. Now, privately, what Trump has been discussing with his adviserss have been discussing with his adviserss have been discussing with his adviserss have been three different options. Uh, one is been three different options. Uh, one is been three different options. Uh, one is that the United States basically walks that the United States basically walks that the United States basically walks away and that the Gulf States have to

away and that the Gulf States have to away and that the Gulf States have to negotiate an outcome themselves. And negotiate an outcome themselves. And negotiate an outcome themselves. And this is kind of when he says maybe we do this is kind of when he says maybe we do this is kind of when he says maybe we do it without a deal. That's what he means. it without a deal. That's what he means. it without a deal. That's what he means. And so yes, the Gulf States will end up And so yes, the Gulf States will end up And so yes, the Gulf States will end up having to pay a lot of money directly to having to pay a lot of money directly to having to pay a lot of money directly to Iran, but that'll be negotiated by the Iran, but that'll be negotiated by the Iran, but that'll be negotiated by the cutteries, by the Emiratis, by the cutteries, by the Emiratis, by the cutteries, by the Emiratis, by the Saudis, not Trump's problem. Second is Saudis, not Trump's problem. Second is Saudis, not Trump's problem. Second is that they continue to work in direct that they continue to work in direct that they continue to work in direct negotiations with the Iranians to see if negotiations with the Iranians to see if negotiations with the Iranians to see if they can achieve some kind of compromise they can achieve some kind of compromise they can achieve some kind of compromise where the first time around it didn't where the first time around it didn't where the first time around it didn't work because now they've caused more work because now they've caused more work because now they've caused more damage and they've shown that they're damage and they've shown that they're damage and they've shown that they're willing to tolerate higher price of oil willing to tolerate higher price of oil willing to tolerate higher price of oil for longer, willing to actually for longer, willing to actually for longer, willing to actually implement a blockade. So even if they implement a blockade. So even if they implement a blockade. So even if they haven't caused much damage to Iran, they haven't caused much damage to Iran, they haven't caused much damage to Iran, they are showing a greater willingness to are showing a greater willingness to are showing a greater willingness to take pain and that that means that the take pain and that that means that the take pain and that that means that the Iranians might got not get paid off for Iranians might got not get paid off for Iranians might got not get paid off for a very long time if ever. So try that a very long time if ever. So try that a very long time if ever. So try that again. And the third option is some again. And the third option is some again. And the third option is some level of military escalation and this level of military escalation and this level of military escalation and this could be slight increase in what could be slight increase in what could be slight increase in what infrastructure you hit or going after infrastructure you hit or going after infrastructure you hit or going after the nuclear facilities. pickaxe the nuclear facilities. pickaxe the nuclear facilities. pickaxe mountain, very very deep underground mountain, very very deep underground mountain, very very deep underground hardened facility, uh, uranium hardened facility, uh, uranium hardened facility, uh, uranium enrichment capabilities. Trump has said enrichment capabilities. Trump has said enrichment capabilities. Trump has said on many occasions, they're never going on many occasions, they're never going on many occasions, they're never going to have nukes. They'll never develop to have nukes. They'll never develop to have nukes. They'll never develop nukes. So then he could say, at least in nukes. So then he could say, at least in nukes. So then he could say, at least in principle, see, I took away their principle, see, I took away their principle, see, I took away their capacity to do nukes, and so that's a capacity to do nukes, and so that's a capacity to do nukes, and so that's a win for me. Th those are the options win for me. Th those are the options win for me. Th those are the options that he's presently looking at. Um, none that he's presently looking at. Um, none that he's presently looking at. Um, none of them are likely to reopen the strait of them are likely to reopen the strait of them are likely to reopen the strait immediately.

immediately. immediately. some risk greater damage and fighting. some risk greater damage and fighting. some risk greater damage and fighting. Um, but you know, I think you're talking Um, but you know, I think you're talking Um, but you know, I think you're talking about probably something between a month about probably something between a month about probably something between a month or two of the straight remaining closed or two of the straight remaining closed or two of the straight remaining closed and disrupted with no additional major and disrupted with no additional major and disrupted with no additional major military escalation to, let's say, 6 to military escalation to, let's say, 6 to military escalation to, let's say, 6 to 12 months of major disruption with some 12 months of major disruption with some 12 months of major disruption with some significant military escalation, but significant military escalation, but significant military escalation, but still not the kind of allout conflration still not the kind of allout conflration still not the kind of allout conflration across the Gulf. That's that's the the across the Gulf. That's that's the the across the Gulf. That's that's the the the bid offer spread, if you will. the bid offer spread, if you will. the bid offer spread, if you will. between where we might be heading in the between where we might be heading in the between where we might be heading in the coming months. Um, all of this with coming months. Um, all of this with coming months. Um, all of this with significant economic costs to the United significant economic costs to the United significant economic costs to the United States and around the world. It is worth States and around the world. It is worth States and around the world. It is worth remembering that I mean pretty much remembering that I mean pretty much remembering that I mean pretty much every world leader looks at this war and every world leader looks at this war and every world leader looks at this war and says President Trump and the Israeli says President Trump and the Israeli says President Trump and the Israeli prime minister, but they're basically prime minister, but they're basically prime minister, but they're basically blaming Trump because he's the blaming Trump because he's the blaming Trump because he's the superpower um causing damage to us and superpower um causing damage to us and superpower um causing damage to us and our economy through this war. Having our economy through this war. Having our economy through this war. Having said that, the damage is lower than a said that, the damage is lower than a said that, the damage is lower than a lot of people thought. The oil prices lot of people thought. The oil prices lot of people thought. The oil prices today um are lower than a lot of people today um are lower than a lot of people today um are lower than a lot of people thought. We're not in a global thought. We're not in a global thought. We're not in a global recession. And so even though the recession. And so even though the recession. And so even though the Iranians by closing the strait and the Iranians by closing the strait and the Iranians by closing the strait and the Americans with the blockade have taken Americans with the blockade have taken Americans with the blockade have taken 13 million barrels a day off of the 13 million barrels a day off of the 13 million barrels a day off of the global market and that's a lot. The global market and that's a lot. The global market and that's a lot. The Chinese are actually uh importing 5 Chinese are actually uh importing 5 Chinese are actually uh importing 5 million barrels a day less and that is a

million barrels a day less and that is a million barrels a day less and that is a massive reduction of strain and stress massive reduction of strain and stress massive reduction of strain and stress on the global energy market. On top of on the global energy market. On top of on the global energy market. On top of that, there is a higher level of energy that, there is a higher level of energy that, there is a higher level of energy going through the east west route from going through the east west route from going through the east west route from Saudi Arabia. You've got a couple Saudi Arabia. You've got a couple Saudi Arabia. You've got a couple million barrels avoiding the straight million barrels avoiding the straight million barrels avoiding the straight going through overland UAE a pipeline going through overland UAE a pipeline going through overland UAE a pipeline and you have some diversification and and you have some diversification and and you have some diversification and efficiency gains. So there is a cost efficiency gains. So there is a cost efficiency gains. So there is a cost that cost is being paid even at the pump that cost is being paid even at the pump that cost is being paid even at the pump over $4 right now on average a gallon in over $4 right now on average a gallon in over $4 right now on average a gallon in the US. It would have been about 330 if the US. It would have been about 330 if the US. It would have been about 330 if you take the Iran war out. So that is a you take the Iran war out. So that is a you take the Iran war out. So that is a cost of, you know, about $600, $700 per cost of, you know, about $600, $700 per cost of, you know, about $600, $700 per family for every family in America family for every family in America family for every family in America because of this war. And that's just the because of this war. And that's just the because of this war. And that's just the gas price. That's not other inflation. gas price. That's not other inflation. gas price. That's not other inflation. We're not looking at fertilizer. We're We're not looking at fertilizer. We're We're not looking at fertilizer. We're not looking at helium. We're not looking not looking at helium. We're not looking not looking at helium. We're not looking at long-term food, any of that. We're at long-term food, any of that. We're at long-term food, any of that. We're not looking at the direct cost of the not looking at the direct cost of the not looking at the direct cost of the infrastructure damage that has to be infrastructure damage that has to be infrastructure damage that has to be rebuilt. We're certainly not looking at rebuilt. We're certainly not looking at rebuilt. We're certainly not looking at the civilians that have been killed in the civilians that have been killed in the civilians that have been killed in Iran and the hundred plus billion Iran and the hundred plus billion Iran and the hundred plus billion dollars of damage to their economy. All dollars of damage to their economy. All dollars of damage to their economy. All of that is destructive. And yet, if we of that is destructive. And yet, if we of that is destructive. And yet, if we went back to the end of February, the went back to the end of February, the went back to the end of February, the beginning of March, every market beginning of March, every market beginning of March, every market participant would have expected this participant would have expected this participant would have expected this would have been substantially worse. And would have been substantially worse. And would have been substantially worse. And there has been more resilience in the there has been more resilience in the there has been more resilience in the global economy.

global economy. global economy. >> All right. So, I think you laid out >> All right. So, I think you laid out >> All right. So, I think you laid out really neatly the spread. I have to ask really neatly the spread. I have to ask really neatly the spread. I have to ask you, where do you where do you where you, where do you where do you where you, where do you where do you where would you put your money? would you put your money? would you put your money? I think Trump really does. Look, his ego I think Trump really does. Look, his ego I think Trump really does. Look, his ego is preventing him from letting the is preventing him from letting the is preventing him from letting the Iranians say that they won and uh that Iranians say that they won and uh that Iranians say that they won and uh that that is what brought us back to a that is what brought us back to a that is what brought us back to a blockade. But he really wants to move blockade. But he really wants to move blockade. But he really wants to move on. He wants to get to Cuba. Um he wants on. He wants to get to Cuba. Um he wants on. He wants to get to Cuba. Um he wants to get um to other parts of the world to get um to other parts of the world to get um to other parts of the world where it's easier for him to have wins. where it's easier for him to have wins. where it's easier for him to have wins. Um, and you know that is basically the Um, and you know that is basically the Um, and you know that is basically the Dawnroe doctrine. The Western Dawnroe doctrine. The Western Dawnroe doctrine. The Western Hemisphere, Venezuela's gone very well. Hemisphere, Venezuela's gone very well. Hemisphere, Venezuela's gone very well. Um, the the devastating earthquake in Um, the the devastating earthquake in Um, the the devastating earthquake in Venezuela only means the new Venezuelan Venezuela only means the new Venezuelan Venezuela only means the new Venezuelan government needs the Americans even government needs the Americans even government needs the Americans even more. And so they're having to accept a more. And so they're having to accept a more. And so they're having to accept a political transition that's moving more political transition that's moving more political transition that's moving more quickly than had been anticipated. on quickly than had been anticipated. on quickly than had been anticipated. on top of the oil deals, the mining deals, top of the oil deals, the mining deals, top of the oil deals, the mining deals, the financial deals, all the rest, the financial deals, all the rest, the financial deals, all the rest, you've got a whole bunch of governments you've got a whole bunch of governments you've got a whole bunch of governments that have come into play that are more that have come into play that are more that have come into play that are more aligned with President Trump, not just aligned with President Trump, not just aligned with President Trump, not just Mle and Argentina and Boule and El Mle and Argentina and Boule and El Mle and Argentina and Boule and El Salvador, but also now Fujimorei Salvador, but also now Fujimorei Salvador, but also now Fujimorei um just elected in Peru. You've got Cast um just elected in Peru. You've got Cast um just elected in Peru. You've got Cast in Chile. Uh you've got the new in Chile. Uh you've got the new in Chile. Uh you've got the new Colombian government, for example, uh Colombian government, for example, uh Colombian government, for example, uh having thrown uh pro out. I mean, all of having thrown uh pro out. I mean, all of having thrown uh pro out. I mean, all of these governments are folks that want to these governments are folks that want to these governments are folks that want to work closely with President Trump. And work closely with President Trump. And work closely with President Trump. And so, I mean, he would be doing a lot

so, I mean, he would be doing a lot so, I mean, he would be doing a lot better and the headlines would be a lot better and the headlines would be a lot better and the headlines would be a lot more favorable if he was moving on. Um, more favorable if he was moving on. Um, more favorable if he was moving on. Um, and so I do suspect that after maybe and so I do suspect that after maybe and so I do suspect that after maybe this round of talks, maybe more strikes this round of talks, maybe more strikes this round of talks, maybe more strikes and another round or two, but I don't and another round or two, but I don't and another round or two, but I don't think we're going to see significant think we're going to see significant think we're going to see significant escalation. I I think it's more likely escalation. I I think it's more likely escalation. I I think it's more likely that Trump moves on. And that move on that Trump moves on. And that move on that Trump moves on. And that move on probably means that the bulk of the probably means that the bulk of the probably means that the bulk of the lifting with the Iranians will be done lifting with the Iranians will be done lifting with the Iranians will be done by the Gulf States. They will have to by the Gulf States. They will have to by the Gulf States. They will have to come to their own deal with Iran. Um we come to their own deal with Iran. Um we come to their own deal with Iran. Um we broke it, but you guys can fix it. That broke it, but you guys can fix it. That broke it, but you guys can fix it. That that is it is uh it is not the Pottery that is it is uh it is not the Pottery that is it is uh it is not the Pottery Barn solution for the Middle East. Uh Barn solution for the Middle East. Uh Barn solution for the Middle East. Uh Colin Powell notwithstanding. Colin Powell notwithstanding. Colin Powell notwithstanding. >> I think that makes sense. Do you think >> I think that makes sense. Do you think >> I think that makes sense. Do you think that a president or President Trump has that a president or President Trump has that a president or President Trump has a responsibility to tell the American a responsibility to tell the American a responsibility to tell the American people what is really going on? It seems people what is really going on? It seems people what is really going on? It seems like it, you know, as you say, there are like it, you know, as you say, there are like it, you know, as you say, there are there are kind of no straight stories there are kind of no straight stories there are kind of no straight stories here. So, how should the American people here. So, how should the American people here. So, how should the American people think about this? We we know that 18 US think about this? We we know that 18 US think about this? We we know that 18 US service members have died. We know that service members have died. We know that service members have died. We know that 1,700 civilians at least in Iran have 1,700 civilians at least in Iran have 1,700 civilians at least in Iran have died. So how how can we how can the like died. So how how can we how can the like died. So how how can we how can the like average lay person understand what is average lay person understand what is average lay person understand what is going on what the trajectory is in any going on what the trajectory is in any going on what the trajectory is in any kind of way that they can believe?

kind of way that they can believe? kind of way that they can believe? >> I I do not believe that the >> I I do not believe that the >> I I do not believe that the commanderin-chief has an obligation to commanderin-chief has an obligation to commanderin-chief has an obligation to say things that will undermine America's say things that will undermine America's say things that will undermine America's negotiating position. So, if it is true negotiating position. So, if it is true negotiating position. So, if it is true that the United States is running that the United States is running that the United States is running desperately low of critical uh Patriot desperately low of critical uh Patriot desperately low of critical uh Patriot interceptors or tomahawk missiles and interceptors or tomahawk missiles and interceptors or tomahawk missiles and that would give the Iranians an that would give the Iranians an that would give the Iranians an advantage to holding on, I do not advantage to holding on, I do not advantage to holding on, I do not believe that the commander-in-chief uh believe that the commander-in-chief uh believe that the commander-in-chief uh should be straightforward with the should be straightforward with the should be straightforward with the American people about that at that time. American people about that at that time. American people about that at that time. At that time, I I I think there needs to At that time, I I I think there needs to At that time, I I I think there needs to be a full reckoning and transparency be a full reckoning and transparency be a full reckoning and transparency afterwards. But I I would not want I afterwards. But I I would not want I afterwards. But I I would not want I would not expect the United States would not expect the United States would not expect the United States president to say that. But I do expect president to say that. But I do expect president to say that. But I do expect that the American president needs to be that the American president needs to be that the American president needs to be clear and honest about what the purpose clear and honest about what the purpose clear and honest about what the purpose of the war is um about what the go war of the war is um about what the go war of the war is um about what the go war goals are um and how one would know if goals are um and how one would know if goals are um and how one would know if one has achieved them and they should be one has achieved them and they should be one has achieved them and they should be consistent and there should be a consistent and there should be a consistent and there should be a reckoning um for that over time. You go reckoning um for that over time. You go reckoning um for that over time. You go back and say did you actually get it back and say did you actually get it back and say did you actually get it right or not? There should be right or not? There should be right or not? There should be accountability, responsibility. The buck accountability, responsibility. The buck accountability, responsibility. The buck needs to stop with the president of the needs to stop with the president of the needs to stop with the president of the United States. That is not happening. Um United States. That is not happening. Um United States. That is not happening. Um and that is not happening to such a and that is not happening to such a and that is not happening to such a great degree that many advisers of Trump great degree that many advisers of Trump great degree that many advisers of Trump who are frustrated that he is uh who are frustrated that he is uh who are frustrated that he is uh subverting the national interest of the subverting the national interest of the subverting the national interest of the United States because of his own ego are United States because of his own ego are United States because of his own ego are leaking a lot um to members of the media

leaking a lot um to members of the media leaking a lot um to members of the media to allies to others to say we need to to allies to others to say we need to to allies to others to say we need to find a way out of this war and the find a way out of this war and the find a way out of this war and the president doesn't listen. So um clearly president doesn't listen. So um clearly president doesn't listen. So um clearly uh irrespective of whether I believe the uh irrespective of whether I believe the uh irrespective of whether I believe the president has a responsibility to be president has a responsibility to be president has a responsibility to be straightforward on those issues with the straightforward on those issues with the straightforward on those issues with the American people, he does not believe American people, he does not believe American people, he does not believe that. And we have now seen so many that. And we have now seen so many that. And we have now seen so many occasions where from one day to the occasions where from one day to the occasions where from one day to the other uh the president says things that other uh the president says things that other uh the president says things that just are clearly not so. And I I'll give just are clearly not so. And I I'll give just are clearly not so. And I I'll give you one particularly obvious example you one particularly obvious example you one particularly obvious example that quite pained me was a week ago on that quite pained me was a week ago on that quite pained me was a week ago on Monday when the president came out and Monday when the president came out and Monday when the president came out and announced all of a sudden, okay, we're announced all of a sudden, okay, we're announced all of a sudden, okay, we're charging 20% tolls on every ship that charging 20% tolls on every ship that charging 20% tolls on every ship that goes through the straight. We're going goes through the straight. We're going goes through the straight. We're going to collect I don't if you remember he to collect I don't if you remember he to collect I don't if you remember he said this a week ago money made the said this a week ago money made the said this a week ago money made the announcement, right? And this was announcement, right? And this was announcement, right? And this was patently not true. There was no way to patently not true. There was no way to patently not true. There was no way to implement it. It was intolerable to implement it. It was intolerable to implement it. It was intolerable to allies. There was no mechanism. There allies. There was no mechanism. There allies. There was no mechanism. There was no execution. There was no was no execution. There was no was no execution. There was no agreement. Trump just made it up and he agreement. Trump just made it up and he agreement. Trump just made it up and he said it and and obviously said it and and obviously said it and and obviously uh he never should have done that. But uh he never should have done that. But uh he never should have done that. But also his advisors should not allow him also his advisors should not allow him also his advisors should not allow him to do that. And you can say, "Well, to do that. And you can say, "Well, to do that. And you can say, "Well, they're not powerful enough." Well, if they're not powerful enough." Well, if they're not powerful enough." Well, if they're his adviserss, they have to have they're his adviserss, they have to have they're his adviserss, they have to have the ability and the willingness to stand the ability and the willingness to stand the ability and the willingness to stand up and say, "Sir, like you are damaging up and say, "Sir, like you are damaging up and say, "Sir, like you are damaging your own ability to run the country and your own ability to run the country and your own ability to run the country and and I cannot stand by and watch you and I cannot stand by and watch you and I cannot stand by and watch you destroy your own credibility. I can't

destroy your own credibility. I can't destroy your own credibility. I can't stand by and watch you destroy your own stand by and watch you destroy your own stand by and watch you destroy your own ability to negotiate and come to a ability to negotiate and come to a ability to negotiate and come to a settlement in this war or to win um settlement in this war or to win um settlement in this war or to win um against your adversaries and with against your adversaries and with against your adversaries and with support of your allies. And this kind of support of your allies. And this kind of support of your allies. And this kind of thing is happening all the time on Iran thing is happening all the time on Iran thing is happening all the time on Iran because Trump is angry. He is because Trump is angry. He is because Trump is angry. He is embarrassed. None of it can be his embarrassed. None of it can be his embarrassed. None of it can be his fault. It has to be somebody else. But fault. It has to be somebody else. But fault. It has to be somebody else. But he doesn't have anyone to blame because he doesn't have anyone to blame because he doesn't have anyone to blame because he was the one that chose to go to this he was the one that chose to go to this he was the one that chose to go to this war. the only person he could war. the only person he could war. the only person he could potentially blame is the Israeli prime potentially blame is the Israeli prime potentially blame is the Israeli prime minister. But then it makes it seem as minister. But then it makes it seem as minister. But then it makes it seem as if Trump wasn't in charge of his own if Trump wasn't in charge of his own if Trump wasn't in charge of his own policy. He's getting jerked around by policy. He's getting jerked around by policy. He's getting jerked around by the Israeli leader, which he would never the Israeli leader, which he would never the Israeli leader, which he would never which first of all was not accurate. which first of all was not accurate. which first of all was not accurate. Trump made the decision, but even if it Trump made the decision, but even if it Trump made the decision, but even if it was accurate, he would never admit that. was accurate, he would never admit that. was accurate, he would never admit that. So he he has no ability to really blame So he he has no ability to really blame So he he has no ability to really blame anybody else here. And it's it's the anybody else here. And it's it's the anybody else here. And it's it's the fact that the president of the United fact that the president of the United fact that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, who twice ran and States, Donald Trump, who twice ran and States, Donald Trump, who twice ran and won on a platform of I will not start won on a platform of I will not start won on a platform of I will not start new wars, new wars, new wars, has like now wasted six months of his has like now wasted six months of his has like now wasted six months of his presidency in the run-up to the midterm presidency in the run-up to the midterm presidency in the run-up to the midterm elections having started and failed in a elections having started and failed in a elections having started and failed in a new war is kind of astonishing. It kind new war is kind of astonishing. It kind new war is kind of astonishing. It kind of beggars belief. It's astonishing. It of beggars belief. It's astonishing. It of beggars belief. It's astonishing. It beggars belief. It's also incredibly beggars belief. It's also incredibly beggars belief. It's also incredibly serious in every way, right? I mean, if serious in every way, right? I mean, if serious in every way, right? I mean, if you just take the money side of this, you just take the money side of this, you just take the money side of this, there's already cost, I think, $ 37.5

there's already cost, I think, $ 37.5 there's already cost, I think, $ 37.5 billion. Pete Hexath has just asked billion. Pete Hexath has just asked billion. Pete Hexath has just asked Congress for I think another 67 billion Congress for I think another 67 billion Congress for I think another 67 billion dollars. So, it just feels like the cost dollars. So, it just feels like the cost dollars. So, it just feels like the cost to the American people, to the global to the American people, to the global to the American people, to the global public is just so astronomical. And it's public is just so astronomical. And it's public is just so astronomical. And it's like how is it possible that one man's like how is it possible that one man's like how is it possible that one man's vanity is actually able to cost this vanity is actually able to cost this vanity is actually able to cost this much for the world? much for the world? much for the world? >> Yeah. I mean, we're not talking about a >> Yeah. I mean, we're not talking about a >> Yeah. I mean, we're not talking about a trillion yet, but I mean, if you look at trillion yet, but I mean, if you look at trillion yet, but I mean, if you look at the cost to the Iranian infrastructure, the cost to the Iranian infrastructure, the cost to the Iranian infrastructure, if you look, which has to be rebuilt, if if you look, which has to be rebuilt, if if you look, which has to be rebuilt, if you look at the cost to the Gulf you look at the cost to the Gulf you look at the cost to the Gulf infrastructure, I mean, just that one uh infrastructure, I mean, just that one uh infrastructure, I mean, just that one uh facility LNG facility in cutter, it's facility LNG facility in cutter, it's facility LNG facility in cutter, it's $20 billion and a minimum of five years $20 billion and a minimum of five years $20 billion and a minimum of five years to fix. Um, you look at the inflation to fix. Um, you look at the inflation to fix. Um, you look at the inflation costs all over the world for fertilizer, costs all over the world for fertilizer, costs all over the world for fertilizer, food, helium, um, prochems, plastics, I food, helium, um, prochems, plastics, I food, helium, um, prochems, plastics, I mean, everything with oil in it. You're mean, everything with oil in it. You're mean, everything with oil in it. You're already talking about hundreds of already talking about hundreds of already talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of cost. billions of dollars of cost. billions of dollars of cost. >> Um, and so I mean, no, it's not >> Um, and so I mean, no, it's not >> Um, and so I mean, no, it's not Afghanistan, it's not Iraq, but frankly, Afghanistan, it's not Iraq, but frankly, Afghanistan, it's not Iraq, but frankly, it's clearly the biggest policy mistake it's clearly the biggest policy mistake it's clearly the biggest policy mistake that any US president has made since the that any US president has made since the that any US president has made since the Iraq war. And that's that's astonishing Iraq war. And that's that's astonishing Iraq war. And that's that's astonishing again for a president who understands again for a president who understands again for a president who understands just how damaging these wars can be have just how damaging these wars can be have just how damaging these wars can be have been. For a president who when he was been. For a president who when he was been. For a president who when he was young used his family connections to young used his family connections to young used his family connections to avoid the draft because he didn't want avoid the draft because he didn't want avoid the draft because he didn't want any part in Vietnam because he any part in Vietnam because he any part in Vietnam because he understood that that was a bad war. He understood that that was a bad war. He understood that that was a bad war. He understood that that was a war he didn't understood that that was a war he didn't understood that that was a war he didn't want to sacrifice his own life for. I

want to sacrifice his own life for. I want to sacrifice his own life for. I mean, he gets the fact that wealthy mean, he gets the fact that wealthy mean, he gets the fact that wealthy people have been able to do that. Poor people have been able to do that. Poor people have been able to do that. Poor people haven't. And so, he won in part people haven't. And so, he won in part people haven't. And so, he won in part by saying, "I'm not going to fight any by saying, "I'm not going to fight any by saying, "I'm not going to fight any wars on the back of unconnected, wars on the back of unconnected, wars on the back of unconnected, unwealthy people that can't get an unwealthy people that can't get an unwealthy people that can't get an exemption the way that I could." And exemption the way that I could." And exemption the way that I could." And that was a compelling thing to vote for. that was a compelling thing to vote for. that was a compelling thing to vote for. And and now, not so much. And the fact And and now, not so much. And the fact And and now, not so much. And the fact that he's, you know, the White House is that he's, you know, the White House is that he's, you know, the White House is posting, "Look at the Iran war compared posting, "Look at the Iran war compared posting, "Look at the Iran war compared to Iraq and Vietnam." You're not winning to Iraq and Vietnam." You're not winning to Iraq and Vietnam." You're not winning when you're comparing the damage that when you're comparing the damage that when you're comparing the damage that you've done to Iraq and Vietnam. I you've done to Iraq and Vietnam. I you've done to Iraq and Vietnam. I assure you. assure you. assure you. >> Indeed, you are not. Okay. One final >> Indeed, you are not. Okay. One final >> Indeed, you are not. Okay. One final question, which may be a bit outlandish, question, which may be a bit outlandish, question, which may be a bit outlandish, but I've heard people asking it, so I but I've heard people asking it, so I but I've heard people asking it, so I have to ask you, is should we be worried have to ask you, is should we be worried have to ask you, is should we be worried about an escalation to the point of a about an escalation to the point of a about an escalation to the point of a tactical nuclear deployment tactical nuclear deployment tactical nuclear deployment >> in Iran? >> in Iran? >> in Iran? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> No, that's stupid. >> No, that's stupid. >> No, that's stupid. >> Okay, good. >> Okay, good. >> Okay, good. >> Um, not by the Americans, not by the >> Um, not by the Americans, not by the >> Um, not by the Americans, not by the Israelis who also have lots of nuclear Israelis who also have lots of nuclear Israelis who also have lots of nuclear weapons. Um this is the issue is not weapons. Um this is the issue is not weapons. Um this is the issue is not about military dominance in the region.

about military dominance in the region. about military dominance in the region. The issue is that a very weak Iran has The issue is that a very weak Iran has The issue is that a very weak Iran has the ability despite its weakness to the ability despite its weakness to the ability despite its weakness to cause an immense amount of damage can cause an immense amount of damage can cause an immense amount of damage can bring um the global economy um not to bring um the global economy um not to bring um the global economy um not to its knees uh but certainly make it limp its knees uh but certainly make it limp its knees uh but certainly make it limp and hobble and and that um was not and hobble and and that um was not and hobble and and that um was not expected. That was wildly unexpected by expected. That was wildly unexpected by expected. That was wildly unexpected by President Trump on the back of his President Trump on the back of his President Trump on the back of his success in Venezuela when he decided to success in Venezuela when he decided to success in Venezuela when he decided to launch this decapitation strike uh launch this decapitation strike uh launch this decapitation strike uh against the Islamic Republic. And let us against the Islamic Republic. And let us against the Islamic Republic. And let us remember before we close this remember before we close this remember before we close this conversation on Iran, let us remember conversation on Iran, let us remember conversation on Iran, let us remember that the people that are suffering by that the people that are suffering by that the people that are suffering by far the most are the 92 million people far the most are the 92 million people far the most are the 92 million people in Iran. the ones that were killed by in Iran. the ones that were killed by in Iran. the ones that were killed by the thousands by this Islamic Republic the thousands by this Islamic Republic the thousands by this Islamic Republic back in January that the Americans have back in January that the Americans have back in January that the Americans have done nothing to improve their lives. If done nothing to improve their lives. If done nothing to improve their lives. If anything, their lives have gotten worse. anything, their lives have gotten worse. anything, their lives have gotten worse. The new supreme leader, the military The new supreme leader, the military The new supreme leader, the military that's in charge, they are different that's in charge, they are different that's in charge, they are different leaders. They are just as brutal. They leaders. They are just as brutal. They leaders. They are just as brutal. They are just as capable of repressing their are just as capable of repressing their are just as capable of repressing their population and they will going forward.

population and they will going forward. population and they will going forward. >> Brutal. Brutal. So Trump is meeting with >> Brutal. Brutal. So Trump is meeting with >> Brutal. Brutal. So Trump is meeting with the Israeli president um the Israeli president um the Israeli president um >> Prime Minister >> Prime Minister >> Prime Minister >> I'm sorry, Prime Minister Netanyahu >> I'm sorry, Prime Minister Netanyahu >> I'm sorry, Prime Minister Netanyahu today in Washington. You talked about today in Washington. You talked about today in Washington. You talked about how in fact the US really drove this, how in fact the US really drove this, how in fact the US really drove this, but obviously Israel is super kind of but obviously Israel is super kind of but obviously Israel is super kind of pro anything that the US can do that is pro anything that the US can do that is pro anything that the US can do that is that damages Iran in any way. So what that damages Iran in any way. So what that damages Iran in any way. So what what do you think that they're going to what do you think that they're going to what do you think that they're going to be talking about today and what should be talking about today and what should be talking about today and what should we be listening for in the reporting to we be listening for in the reporting to we be listening for in the reporting to come in the next few days? come in the next few days? come in the next few days? >> Uh yeah, the Israelis would like to see >> Uh yeah, the Israelis would like to see >> Uh yeah, the Israelis would like to see the Americans step this up. They would the Americans step this up. They would the Americans step this up. They would be willing certainly to join if the be willing certainly to join if the be willing certainly to join if the Americans wanted to go after the leaders Americans wanted to go after the leaders Americans wanted to go after the leaders uh of the Islamic Republic that are in uh of the Islamic Republic that are in uh of the Islamic Republic that are in place today. Um and if they wanted to place today. Um and if they wanted to place today. Um and if they wanted to hit Pickaxe Mountain, this nuclear hit Pickaxe Mountain, this nuclear hit Pickaxe Mountain, this nuclear enrichment uh storage site, uh the enrichment uh storage site, uh the enrichment uh storage site, uh the Israelis would support that. Certainly, Israelis would support that. Certainly, Israelis would support that. Certainly, uh BB is going to try to push for that. uh BB is going to try to push for that. uh BB is going to try to push for that. But I note that JD Vance was added to But I note that JD Vance was added to But I note that JD Vance was added to the meeting um recently and he is very the meeting um recently and he is very the meeting um recently and he is very deeply skeptical about the Israeli prime deeply skeptical about the Israeli prime deeply skeptical about the Israeli prime minister and about Israel um trying to minister and about Israel um trying to minister and about Israel um trying to push for more American engagement in a push for more American engagement in a push for more American engagement in a war that is in more in Israel's interest war that is in more in Israel's interest war that is in more in Israel's interest than in the United States. Um and and I than in the United States. Um and and I than in the United States. Um and and I feel quite strongly um that uh that feel quite strongly um that uh that feel quite strongly um that uh that Trump is also mistrustful of what the Trump is also mistrustful of what the Trump is also mistrustful of what the Israelis are trying to get the Americans Israelis are trying to get the Americans Israelis are trying to get the Americans to do here. So, the relationship is to do here. So, the relationship is to do here. So, the relationship is solid. The integration of intelligence, solid. The integration of intelligence, solid. The integration of intelligence, defense forces, that's not changing defense forces, that's not changing defense forces, that's not changing under Trump at all. Um, but I think if under Trump at all. Um, but I think if under Trump at all. Um, but I think if BB's intention is to try to get the BB's intention is to try to get the BB's intention is to try to get the Americans to escalate, he is unlikely to

Americans to escalate, he is unlikely to Americans to escalate, he is unlikely to be successful. be successful. be successful. >> Do you feel like Vance is like what's >> Do you feel like Vance is like what's >> Do you feel like Vance is like what's his what's his role in this and what is his what's his role in this and what is his what's his role in this and what is his impact and effect on Trump? his impact and effect on Trump? his impact and effect on Trump? >> Well, Vance of course wants to be >> Well, Vance of course wants to be >> Well, Vance of course wants to be president in 2029. president in 2029. president in 2029. Um, it's very hard to do that if you are Um, it's very hard to do that if you are Um, it's very hard to do that if you are Kla Harris for Trump. So he needs to Kla Harris for Trump. So he needs to Kla Harris for Trump. So he needs to find a way to differentiate himself from find a way to differentiate himself from find a way to differentiate himself from the Trump policies that are failing um the Trump policies that are failing um the Trump policies that are failing um without undermining Trump directly without undermining Trump directly without undermining Trump directly because then Trump will put an ax to because then Trump will put an ax to because then Trump will put an ax to him. And you know I think one thing him. And you know I think one thing him. And you know I think one thing that's been very interesting is Tucker that's been very interesting is Tucker that's been very interesting is Tucker Carlson said he's no longer a Carlson said he's no longer a Carlson said he's no longer a Republican. He's leaving the party. Um Republican. He's leaving the party. Um Republican. He's leaving the party. Um but he likes JD Vance a lot. And I I but he likes JD Vance a lot. And I I but he likes JD Vance a lot. And I I suspect that that has been orchestrated suspect that that has been orchestrated suspect that that has been orchestrated by Vance directly or by Vance's people by Vance directly or by Vance's people by Vance directly or by Vance's people with Tucker because it's quite useful to with Tucker because it's quite useful to with Tucker because it's quite useful to have someone like Tucker out there have someone like Tucker out there have someone like Tucker out there saying Trump bad, Epstein files, saying Trump bad, Epstein files, saying Trump bad, Epstein files, corruption, pro-Israel, all of that. But corruption, pro-Israel, all of that. But corruption, pro-Israel, all of that. But we like JD. Like that's allowing JD to we like JD. Like that's allowing JD to we like JD. Like that's allowing JD to be less Camalaike be less Camalaike be less Camalaike without him having to say here's what I without him having to say here's what I without him having to say here's what I disagree with on the Trump file. Uh, is disagree with on the Trump file. Uh, is disagree with on the Trump file. Uh, is that going to be enough? Um, I don't that going to be enough? Um, I don't that going to be enough? Um, I don't know. Especially because Trump's know. Especially because Trump's know. Especially because Trump's popularity right now, blended, is like popularity right now, blended, is like popularity right now, blended, is like 38% and he's going to get thumped in the 38% and he's going to get thumped in the 38% and he's going to get thumped in the midterms and that's not going to be easy midterms and that's not going to be easy midterms and that's not going to be easy to run on the back of. So, I mean, I I to run on the back of. So, I mean, I I to run on the back of. So, I mean, I I would rather be running right now as a would rather be running right now as a would rather be running right now as a Democrat for 2028 than as a Republican, Democrat for 2028 than as a Republican, Democrat for 2028 than as a Republican, but that's a long way away and things but that's a long way away and things but that's a long way away and things can change. We don't know where the

can change. We don't know where the can change. We don't know where the economy is going to be. We don't know economy is going to be. We don't know economy is going to be. We don't know what AI is going to look like. We don't what AI is going to look like. We don't what AI is going to look like. We don't know what the geopolitical space is know what the geopolitical space is know what the geopolitical space is going to be. But right now certainly the going to be. But right now certainly the going to be. But right now certainly the Democrats are in stronger position. Democrats are in stronger position. Democrats are in stronger position. >> All right, so let's turn to Ukraine >> All right, so let's turn to Ukraine >> All right, so let's turn to Ukraine because another person that Trump is because another person that Trump is because another person that Trump is meeting with today is of course meeting with today is of course meeting with today is of course Zilinski. Zilinski. Zilinski. >> Busy day. Yes. >> Busy day. Yes. >> Busy day. Yes. >> Tell us what is that conversation going >> Tell us what is that conversation going >> Tell us what is that conversation going to entail and where is that war where to entail and where is that war where to entail and where is that war where are we at with that war right now? are we at with that war right now? are we at with that war right now? >> So as of right now I I took a look right >> So as of right now I I took a look right >> So as of right now I I took a look right before we started talking. Looked like before we started talking. Looked like before we started talking. Looked like the meeting was over. The initial the meeting was over. The initial the meeting was over. The initial readouts from the president of Ukraine readouts from the president of Ukraine readouts from the president of Ukraine were very favorable. I'm not surprised were very favorable. I'm not surprised were very favorable. I'm not surprised at all. The last meeting that the two at all. The last meeting that the two at all. The last meeting that the two men had together was in Anker at the men had together was in Anker at the men had together was in Anker at the NATO summit just a couple weeks ago. It NATO summit just a couple weeks ago. It NATO summit just a couple weeks ago. It was by far their best meeting was by far their best meeting was by far their best meeting historically. historically. historically. >> So we've moved on from him being yelled >> So we've moved on from him being yelled >> So we've moved on from him being yelled at in the Oval Office. at in the Oval Office. at in the Oval Office. >> Well, sure because Ukraine is winning >> Well, sure because Ukraine is winning >> Well, sure because Ukraine is winning now and and Trump loves a winner even now and and Trump loves a winner even now and and Trump loves a winner even more than he likes than he hates someone more than he likes than he hates someone more than he likes than he hates someone he's angry with. Then, and Trump was he's angry with. Then, and Trump was he's angry with. Then, and Trump was very angry with Silinski when he refused very angry with Silinski when he refused very angry with Silinski when he refused to open a a an investigation into Hunter to open a a an investigation into Hunter to open a a an investigation into Hunter Biden and and Joe Biden, which which Biden and and Joe Biden, which which Biden and and Joe Biden, which which mattered a lot to Trump at the time. Um, mattered a lot to Trump at the time. Um, mattered a lot to Trump at the time. Um, but now he sees that the Ukrainians are but now he sees that the Ukrainians are but now he sees that the Ukrainians are able to uh fight effectively against able to uh fight effectively against able to uh fight effectively against Russia, that the Europeans are paying Russia, that the Europeans are paying Russia, that the Europeans are paying for all of it. The American taxpayers for all of it. The American taxpayers for all of it. The American taxpayers are not, and they're launching drones are not, and they're launching drones are not, and they're launching drones deep into Russian territory, and Trump deep into Russian territory, and Trump deep into Russian territory, and Trump is helping them. Trump is giving them is helping them. Trump is giving them is helping them. Trump is giving them the intelligence that's allowing them to the intelligence that's allowing them to the intelligence that's allowing them to target, just like the Russians are target, just like the Russians are target, just like the Russians are giving satellite intelligence to the giving satellite intelligence to the giving satellite intelligence to the Iranians, allowing them to target Iranians, allowing them to target Iranians, allowing them to target American bases in the Gulf, by the way.

American bases in the Gulf, by the way. American bases in the Gulf, by the way. Um, which is one reason why Trump isn't Um, which is one reason why Trump isn't Um, which is one reason why Trump isn't really complaining about that because really complaining about that because really complaining about that because from his view, it's like, well, that's from his view, it's like, well, that's from his view, it's like, well, that's what happens in war. Like, you know, what happens in war. Like, you know, what happens in war. Like, you know, it's the same stuff. Um uh you the it's the same stuff. Um uh you the it's the same stuff. Um uh you the Ukrainians are getting support uh from Ukrainians are getting support uh from Ukrainians are getting support uh from the US as we saw a couple weeks ago in the US as we saw a couple weeks ago in the US as we saw a couple weeks ago in allowing them to have licenses to start allowing them to have licenses to start allowing them to have licenses to start producing Patriot missiles on their producing Patriot missiles on their producing Patriot missiles on their territory. They want to see that move territory. They want to see that move territory. They want to see that move forward quickly. Uh nobody's expecting forward quickly. Uh nobody's expecting forward quickly. Uh nobody's expecting that Trump is going to start writing that Trump is going to start writing that Trump is going to start writing them checks, but you might see more them checks, but you might see more them checks, but you might see more significant sanctions um against the significant sanctions um against the significant sanctions um against the Russians uh which Lindsey Graham had Russians uh which Lindsey Graham had Russians uh which Lindsey Graham had been pushing for. Now we have his uh his been pushing for. Now we have his uh his been pushing for. Now we have his uh his uh funeral his memorial services today. uh funeral his memorial services today. uh funeral his memorial services today. Um a lot of people will be talking about Um a lot of people will be talking about Um a lot of people will be talking about that. Um on balance the Ukrainians are that. Um on balance the Ukrainians are that. Um on balance the Ukrainians are in a stronger position, but that does in a stronger position, but that does in a stronger position, but that does not mean that now than they were 3 not mean that now than they were 3 not mean that now than they were 3 months ago. That does not mean uh that months ago. That does not mean uh that months ago. That does not mean uh that that Putin is going to accept a that Putin is going to accept a that Putin is going to accept a ceasefire. Um, and the danger is that as ceasefire. Um, and the danger is that as ceasefire. Um, and the danger is that as things go worse for Russia, in the lack things go worse for Russia, in the lack things go worse for Russia, in the lack of personnel that he has available to of personnel that he has available to of personnel that he has available to fight, in the economy starting to grip fight, in the economy starting to grip fight, in the economy starting to grip at home, uh, because of the Ukrainian at home, uh, because of the Ukrainian at home, uh, because of the Ukrainian strikes more than the sanctions, um, and strikes more than the sanctions, um, and strikes more than the sanctions, um, and also as the Russian people start getting also as the Russian people start getting also as the Russian people start getting angry with the Kremlin, getting angry angry with the Kremlin, getting angry angry with the Kremlin, getting angry with Putin, uh, what might Putin do?

with Putin, uh, what might Putin do? with Putin, uh, what might Putin do? And, and that that that is a concern And, and that that that is a concern And, and that that that is a concern that I have. I'm much more worried that that I have. I'm much more worried that that I have. I'm much more worried that the Russia Ukraine war might metastasize the Russia Ukraine war might metastasize the Russia Ukraine war might metastasize in the coming year than I am that that in the coming year than I am that that in the coming year than I am that that might happen with the Iranian. might happen with the Iranian. might happen with the Iranian. >> H So what does that look like if that >> H So what does that look like if that >> H So what does that look like if that war does metastasize? war does metastasize? war does metastasize? >> Well, they are already uh the Russians >> Well, they are already uh the Russians >> Well, they are already uh the Russians are already engaging in asymmetric are already engaging in asymmetric are already engaging in asymmetric warfare against NATO allies. uh they are warfare against NATO allies. uh they are warfare against NATO allies. uh they are providing money um for um Russians and providing money um for um Russians and providing money um for um Russians and others on the ground in the Baltic others on the ground in the Baltic others on the ground in the Baltic states in Poland, in Romania and the states in Poland, in Romania and the states in Poland, in Romania and the Nordics to engage in arson attacks, um Nordics to engage in arson attacks, um Nordics to engage in arson attacks, um vandalism. They've engaged in direct um vandalism. They've engaged in direct um vandalism. They've engaged in direct um strikes against critical infrastructure, strikes against critical infrastructure, strikes against critical infrastructure, uh warehouses, railways, uh warehouses, railways, uh warehouses, railways, um um fiber optic cables um in in the um um fiber optic cables um in in the um um fiber optic cables um in in the sea. Um, so I at the very least I expect sea. Um, so I at the very least I expect sea. Um, so I at the very least I expect them to step up that fight with the them to step up that fight with the them to step up that fight with the intention of driving a wedge inside intention of driving a wedge inside intention of driving a wedge inside European NATO, having some NATO European NATO, having some NATO European NATO, having some NATO countries say this is too much, this is countries say this is too much, this is countries say this is too much, this is too dangerous, we don't want to spend, too dangerous, we don't want to spend, too dangerous, we don't want to spend, we want to engage with the Russians.

we want to engage with the Russians. we want to engage with the Russians. Harder to do now that Victor Orban is Harder to do now that Victor Orban is Harder to do now that Victor Orban is gone in Hungary, but still a useful gone in Hungary, but still a useful gone in Hungary, but still a useful strategy if you're Putin. I expect he'll strategy if you're Putin. I expect he'll strategy if you're Putin. I expect he'll do that. Um, I I think he will continue do that. Um, I I think he will continue do that. Um, I I think he will continue to provide more support to the Iranians to provide more support to the Iranians to provide more support to the Iranians to go after the US. It's very to go after the US. It's very to go after the US. It's very interesting that when you look at the interesting that when you look at the interesting that when you look at the Iranian strikes against US military Iranian strikes against US military Iranian strikes against US military bases, most of those drones are shot bases, most of those drones are shot bases, most of those drones are shot down. About 90% are shot down uh by down. About 90% are shot down uh by down. About 90% are shot down uh by American defenses. But those that hit um American defenses. But those that hit um American defenses. But those that hit um they are hitting exactly the targets they are hitting exactly the targets they are hitting exactly the targets they want to hit. There are no craters they want to hit. There are no craters they want to hit. There are no craters randomly um in the ground in these randomly um in the ground in these randomly um in the ground in these bases. They're going after radar. bases. They're going after radar. bases. They're going after radar. They're going after barracks. They're They're going after barracks. They're They're going after barracks. They're going after planes. These are things going after planes. These are things going after planes. These are things that move around a lot. they are clearly that move around a lot. they are clearly that move around a lot. they are clearly getting satellite data from the getting satellite data from the getting satellite data from the Russians. So, I find that very credible. Russians. So, I find that very credible. Russians. So, I find that very credible. Um, but you know, so there'll be more of Um, but you know, so there'll be more of Um, but you know, so there'll be more of that. And then the big question and and that. And then the big question and and that. And then the big question and and they're also they're now hitting the they're also they're now hitting the they're also they're now hitting the Black Sea. They're hitting all these Black Sea. They're hitting all these Black Sea. They're hitting all these Ukrainian ships because they're trying Ukrainian ships because they're trying Ukrainian ships because they're trying to create again a greater food shortage to create again a greater food shortage to create again a greater food shortage where the Ukrainians are not able to where the Ukrainians are not able to where the Ukrainians are not able to export uh food and 90% of the ships are export uh food and 90% of the ships are export uh food and 90% of the ships are unwilling to travel out even though unwilling to travel out even though unwilling to travel out even though Odessa is still functional. you can't Odessa is still functional. you can't Odessa is still functional. you can't get the insurance, you can't get the get the insurance, you can't get the get the insurance, you can't get the crews if the Russian will will hit you.

crews if the Russian will will hit you. crews if the Russian will will hit you. Um, now the big question, and you asked Um, now the big question, and you asked Um, now the big question, and you asked me this about Iran, is might the me this about Iran, is might the me this about Iran, is might the Russians use a tactical nuke? The answer Russians use a tactical nuke? The answer Russians use a tactical nuke? The answer there for me is still no because I think there for me is still no because I think there for me is still no because I think the Chinese would strongly oppose it. the Chinese would strongly oppose it. the Chinese would strongly oppose it. The Indians, Kazakhstan, I mean, The Indians, Kazakhstan, I mean, The Indians, Kazakhstan, I mean, countries that that matter to Russia. I countries that that matter to Russia. I countries that that matter to Russia. I don't think they want to take that risk. don't think they want to take that risk. don't think they want to take that risk. I don't think Putin feels that I don't think Putin feels that I don't think Putin feels that desperate. But but I do recognize that desperate. But but I do recognize that desperate. But but I do recognize that at the end of the day there are no at the end of the day there are no at the end of the day there are no checks and balances on Putin. He does checks and balances on Putin. He does checks and balances on Putin. He does not get great information. He is getting not get great information. He is getting not get great information. He is getting much older. He looks more infirm and his much older. He looks more infirm and his much older. He looks more infirm and his situation feels like he's circling situation feels like he's circling situation feels like he's circling circling the drain. He's he's caused I circling the drain. He's he's caused I circling the drain. He's he's caused I mean you look at the mistakes Trump has mean you look at the mistakes Trump has mean you look at the mistakes Trump has made in Iran. That's that's rookie made in Iran. That's that's rookie made in Iran. That's that's rookie numbers compared to what Putin is doing numbers compared to what Putin is doing numbers compared to what Putin is doing in Ukraine and what Putin Putin is doing in Ukraine and what Putin Putin is doing in Ukraine and what Putin Putin is doing to his own country, to his own people, to his own country, to his own people, to his own country, to his own people, to his own economy. And I I I do worry a to his own economy. And I I I do worry a to his own economy. And I I I do worry a lot that in another year or two years of lot that in another year or two years of lot that in another year or two years of this, if Putin refuses to accept the this, if Putin refuses to accept the this, if Putin refuses to accept the pushing and the nudging from friends, um pushing and the nudging from friends, um pushing and the nudging from friends, um that that he really should engage in a that that he really should engage in a that that he really should engage in a ceasefire that that we could end up in a ceasefire that that we could end up in a ceasefire that that we could end up in a situation where Putin could take some situation where Putin could take some situation where Putin could take some calamitous decisions, that he would he'd calamitous decisions, that he would he'd calamitous decisions, that he would he'd be willing to go down with the ship the be willing to go down with the ship the be willing to go down with the ship the way that, you know, a a US or a Chinese way that, you know, a a US or a Chinese way that, you know, a a US or a Chinese leader would not. Um, but you know, the leader would not. Um, but you know, the leader would not. Um, but you know, the head of ISIS would, the head of Hamas head of ISIS would, the head of Hamas head of ISIS would, the head of Hamas would. I I I worry that Putin right now

would. I I I worry that Putin right now would. I I I worry that Putin right now is in between those those two sorts of is in between those those two sorts of is in between those those two sorts of leaders and he's trending towards the leaders and he's trending towards the leaders and he's trending towards the latter. latter. latter. >> Yikes. Do you think what what do you >> Yikes. Do you think what what do you >> Yikes. Do you think what what do you think, if anything, could nudge him think, if anything, could nudge him think, if anything, could nudge him towards accepting a ceasefire, or does towards accepting a ceasefire, or does towards accepting a ceasefire, or does he have to win this war outright? Is he, he have to win this war outright? Is he, he have to win this war outright? Is he, you know, does he have that kind of you know, does he have that kind of you know, does he have that kind of Trump thing of having to look like he Trump thing of having to look like he Trump thing of having to look like he won? I think it will help that um the won? I think it will help that um the won? I think it will help that um the Chinese are starting to make that case. Chinese are starting to make that case. Chinese are starting to make that case. I thought it was good that uh President I thought it was good that uh President I thought it was good that uh President Tokaya from Kazakhstan met with him Tokaya from Kazakhstan met with him Tokaya from Kazakhstan met with him earlier this week and said directly, I earlier this week and said directly, I earlier this week and said directly, I really think you should do a ceasefire really think you should do a ceasefire really think you should do a ceasefire here. This war is not helping anyone. He here. This war is not helping anyone. He here. This war is not helping anyone. He wasn't saying give back any territory. wasn't saying give back any territory. wasn't saying give back any territory. We said just the ceasefire, you know, We said just the ceasefire, you know, We said just the ceasefire, you know, like Zilinski already said that he would like Zilinski already said that he would like Zilinski already said that he would accept a ceasefire without accept a ceasefire without accept a ceasefire without preconditions. You do the same thing. Be preconditions. You do the same thing. Be preconditions. You do the same thing. Be willing to sit down and talk. Tokayaf willing to sit down and talk. Tokayaf willing to sit down and talk. Tokayaf would not have said that 6 months ago. would not have said that 6 months ago. would not have said that 6 months ago. He's saying that now. Uh I think that's He's saying that now. Uh I think that's He's saying that now. Uh I think that's interesting. I think that's important. interesting. I think that's important. interesting. I think that's important. He he may be throwing his hat in the He he may be throwing his hat in the He he may be throwing his hat in the ring to be the next UN Secretary ring to be the next UN Secretary ring to be the next UN Secretary General, by the way. So there's there General, by the way. So there's there General, by the way. So there's there might be an agenda there. But might be an agenda there. But might be an agenda there. But nonetheless, uh that would have been nonetheless, uh that would have been nonetheless, uh that would have been particularly unwelcome news for Putin.

particularly unwelcome news for Putin. particularly unwelcome news for Putin. So I think that will help. Um and again, So I think that will help. Um and again, So I think that will help. Um and again, it's not like Putin, I mean, yes, he has it's not like Putin, I mean, yes, he has it's not like Putin, I mean, yes, he has a war economy. He needs to keep going. a war economy. He needs to keep going. a war economy. He needs to keep going. He can't like he has nothing to do with He can't like he has nothing to do with He can't like he has nothing to do with these people if they come back home. So these people if they come back home. So these people if they come back home. So there will be other stresses, but there will be other stresses, but there will be other stresses, but ultimately Putin's in charge. uh Putin ultimately Putin's in charge. uh Putin ultimately Putin's in charge. uh Putin has a security uh mechanism around him has a security uh mechanism around him has a security uh mechanism around him that that he runs, but Putin's also that that he runs, but Putin's also that that he runs, but Putin's also isolated. So, I mean, one other way um isolated. So, I mean, one other way um isolated. So, I mean, one other way um that this ends is if Putin's done for. that this ends is if Putin's done for. that this ends is if Putin's done for. If there is a, you know, a limited If there is a, you know, a limited If there is a, you know, a limited palace coup that takes him out or if the palace coup that takes him out or if the palace coup that takes him out or if the Ukrainians were able to target and take Ukrainians were able to target and take Ukrainians were able to target and take him out and and believe me, if they had him out and and believe me, if they had him out and and believe me, if they had an an open shot at him, they probably an an open shot at him, they probably an an open shot at him, they probably would. They know that he's doing the would. They know that he's doing the would. They know that he's doing the same against Silinski. So I mean I think same against Silinski. So I mean I think same against Silinski. So I mean I think that there's there's like the easy way that there's there's like the easy way that there's there's like the easy way which is Trump Putin actually accepts uh which is Trump Putin actually accepts uh which is Trump Putin actually accepts uh there's the easy way which is Putin there's the easy way which is Putin there's the easy way which is Putin actually accepts okay we got to like you actually accepts okay we got to like you actually accepts okay we got to like you know calm this down um or there's the know calm this down um or there's the know calm this down um or there's the harder way which is you know progosion harder way which is you know progosion harder way which is you know progosion plus um and uh and and because this guy plus um and uh and and because this guy plus um and uh and and because this guy is driving the economy in the ditch but is driving the economy in the ditch but is driving the economy in the ditch but absent those two things it gets worse it absent those two things it gets worse it absent those two things it gets worse it gets worse and you know we are seeing gets worse and you know we are seeing gets worse and you know we are seeing that the Russians are they're stepping that the Russians are they're stepping that the Russians are they're stepping up their attacks on civilian targets up their attacks on civilian targets up their attacks on civilian targets inside Kiev. And as they do that, the inside Kiev. And as they do that, the inside Kiev. And as they do that, the Ukrainians are going after all these Ukrainians are going after all these Ukrainians are going after all these refineries across Russia. I mean, this refineries across Russia. I mean, this refineries across Russia. I mean, this is not this does not look like we're is not this does not look like we're is not this does not look like we're about to have a ceasefire, about to have a ceasefire, about to have a ceasefire, >> right? So, we have to wrap it up pretty >> right? So, we have to wrap it up pretty >> right? So, we have to wrap it up pretty quickly, but one final question is that quickly, but one final question is that quickly, but one final question is that as you're surveying the environment,

as you're surveying the environment, as you're surveying the environment, you're looking at the landscape. What is you're looking at the landscape. What is you're looking at the landscape. What is the one thing that you're waiting for the one thing that you're waiting for the one thing that you're waiting for like a shoe to drop or what is the one like a shoe to drop or what is the one like a shoe to drop or what is the one thing that we should all be looking for thing that we should all be looking for thing that we should all be looking for in order to have a better understanding in order to have a better understanding in order to have a better understanding of what actually is going on? I I think of what actually is going on? I I think of what actually is going on? I I think that we've actually passed peak Trump that we've actually passed peak Trump that we've actually passed peak Trump disruption on the global stage. His disruption on the global stage. His disruption on the global stage. His ability, whether it's on tariffs and ability, whether it's on tariffs and ability, whether it's on tariffs and hitting the Chinese or it's on Russia hitting the Chinese or it's on Russia hitting the Chinese or it's on Russia and doing a deal over the heads of the and doing a deal over the heads of the and doing a deal over the heads of the Europeans and Ukrainians, or whether Europeans and Ukrainians, or whether Europeans and Ukrainians, or whether it's Iran and forcing them to it's Iran and forcing them to it's Iran and forcing them to capitulate, like ultimately the limits capitulate, like ultimately the limits capitulate, like ultimately the limits on Trump's power globally have become on Trump's power globally have become on Trump's power globally have become more clear. That will become even more more clear. That will become even more more clear. That will become even more so after the midterm elections in so after the midterm elections in so after the midterm elections in November. And so seeing countries being November. And so seeing countries being November. And so seeing countries being able to hedge, stand up for themselves, able to hedge, stand up for themselves, able to hedge, stand up for themselves, look forward to what a postTrump America look forward to what a postTrump America look forward to what a postTrump America relationship is like, those are things relationship is like, those are things relationship is like, those are things that are going to become more clear, I that are going to become more clear, I that are going to become more clear, I think, and more clarifying to us um over think, and more clarifying to us um over think, and more clarifying to us um over the course of the coming months. the course of the coming months. the course of the coming months. >> So Ian, thank you. We're no doubt going >> So Ian, thank you. We're no doubt going >> So Ian, thank you. We're no doubt going to call on you to help explain what is to call on you to help explain what is to call on you to help explain what is going on over the next few months, but going on over the next few months, but going on over the next few months, but always grateful for your wisdom and your always grateful for your wisdom and your always grateful for your wisdom and your insight. Be well. Have a wonderful day, insight. Be well. Have a wonderful day, insight. Be well. Have a wonderful day, and we'll see you soon.

and we'll see you soon. and we'll see you soon. >> Happy summer, everybody.