URGENT UPDATE - Iran War Expert: A Mass Casualty Attack Is Coming! | Robert Pape

Iran is stronger today than it was Iran is stronger today than it was before the [music] war started. And this before the [music] war started. And this before the [music] war started. And this is literally the nightmare scenario that is literally the nightmare scenario that is literally the nightmare scenario that we've been worrying [music] about. And we've been worrying [music] about. And we've been worrying [music] about. And the reason you're having me here is the reason you're having me here is the reason you're having me here is because in the next few months, the because in the next few months, the because in the next few months, the world economic crisis is going to grow. world economic crisis is going to grow. world economic crisis is going to grow. >> And it does appear that you've been >> And it does appear that you've been >> And it does appear that you've been largely correct about what you said largely correct about what you said largely correct about what you said would happen. would happen. would happen. >> It's because I've been modeling the >> It's because I've been modeling the >> It's because I've been modeling the bombing of Iran for 20 years. And I've bombing of Iran for 20 years. And I've bombing of Iran for 20 years. And I've advised [music] every White House from advised [music] every White House from advised [music] every White House from 2001 to 2024 on different issues related 2001 to 2024 on different issues related 2001 to 2024 on different issues related to conflict. And right now we're coming to conflict. And right now we're coming to conflict. And right now we're coming into the stage [music] three prediction. into the stage [music] three prediction. into the stage [music] three prediction. We're like on the Titanic and we're We're like on the Titanic and we're We're like on the Titanic and we're about to hit the iceberg. [music] And about to hit the iceberg. [music] And about to hit the iceberg. [music] And when the iceberg hits there's not enough when the iceberg hits there's not enough when the iceberg hits there's not enough lifeboats for everybody. So we are lifeboats for everybody. So we are lifeboats for everybody. So we are knocking on the door of the world knocking on the door of the world knocking on the door of the world literally running out of oil. And then literally running out of oil. And then literally running out of oil. And then on top of that even we have another set on top of that even we have another set on top of that even we have another set of [music] problems. For example, Iran of [music] problems. For example, Iran of [music] problems. For example, Iran is attacking our base in Jordan and is attacking our base in Jordan and is attacking our base in Jordan and we're in our ninth day of bombing in a we're in our ninth day of bombing in a we're in our ninth day of bombing in a row. And the scale of eliminating the row. And the scale of eliminating the row. And the scale of eliminating the drone [music] and missile threat is much drone [music] and missile threat is much drone [music] and missile threat is much bigger than people realize because they bigger than people realize because they bigger than people realize because they hide those drones everywhere.

hide those drones everywhere. hide those drones everywhere. >> So, how real is the risk that US will >> So, how real is the risk that US will >> So, how real is the risk that US will [music] do some kind of limited ground [music] do some kind of limited ground [music] do some kind of limited ground operation boots on the ground in Iran? operation boots on the ground in Iran? operation boots on the ground in Iran? >> It's bordering on 70% now, probably >> It's bordering on 70% now, probably >> It's bordering on 70% now, probably [music] by the end of this week. But I'm [music] by the end of this week. But I'm [music] by the end of this week. But I'm concerned about terrorist attack because concerned about terrorist attack because concerned about terrorist attack because controlling pieces of homeland territory controlling pieces of homeland territory controlling pieces of homeland territory is the biggest risk factor [music] for is the biggest risk factor [music] for is the biggest risk factor [music] for suicide terrorism. So the choice is do suicide terrorism. So the choice is do suicide terrorism. So the choice is do we have a global economic crisis, we have a global economic crisis, we have a global economic crisis, [music] possibly a recession, possibly [music] possibly a recession, possibly [music] possibly a recession, possibly worse, or do we let Iran control the worse, or do we let Iran control the worse, or do we let Iran control the straight of hormones? straight of hormones? straight of hormones? >> This is not a good place to be. So what >> This is not a good place to be. So what >> This is not a good place to be. So what is the most [music] probable next thing is the most [music] probable next thing is the most [music] probable next thing that you think happens? that you think happens? that you think happens? >> I think that question, Stephen, is the >> I think that question, Stephen, is the >> I think that question, Stephen, is the most [music] important question in the most [music] important question in the most [music] important question in the world. And I think the answer is This is super interesting to me. My team This is super interesting to me. My team given me this report to show me how many given me this report to show me how many given me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe. of you that watch this show subscribe. of you that watch this show subscribe. And some of you have told us according And some of you have told us according And some of you have told us according to this that you are unsubscribe from to this that you are unsubscribe from to this that you are unsubscribe from the channel randomly. So favor to ask the channel randomly. So favor to ask the channel randomly. So favor to ask all of you. Please could you check right all of you. Please could you check right all of you. Please could you check right now if you've hit the subscribe button now if you've hit the subscribe button now if you've hit the subscribe button if you are a regular viewer of the show if you are a regular viewer of the show if you are a regular viewer of the show and you like what we do here. We're and you like what we do here. We're and you like what we do here. We're approaching quite a significant landmark approaching quite a significant landmark approaching quite a significant landmark on this show in terms of a subscriber on this show in terms of a subscriber on this show in terms of a subscriber number. So, if there was one simple free number. So, if there was one simple free number. So, if there was one simple free thing that you could do to help us, my thing that you could do to help us, my thing that you could do to help us, my team, everyone here, to keep this show team, everyone here, to keep this show team, everyone here, to keep this show free, to keep it improving year over free, to keep it improving year over free, to keep it improving year over year and week over week, it is just to year and week over week, it is just to year and week over week, it is just to hit that subscribe button and to double hit that subscribe button and to double hit that subscribe button and to double check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll ever ask of you. Do we have a deal? If ever ask of you. Do we have a deal? If ever ask of you. Do we have a deal? If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do.

you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do. you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll make sure every single week, every I'll make sure every single week, every I'll make sure every single week, every single month, we fight harder and harder single month, we fight harder and harder single month, we fight harder and harder and harder and harder to bring you the and harder and harder to bring you the and harder and harder to bring you the guests and conversations that you want guests and conversations that you want guests and conversations that you want to hear. I've stayed true to that to hear. I've stayed true to that to hear. I've stayed true to that promise since the very beginning of the promise since the very beginning of the promise since the very beginning of the D of Sio, and I will not let you down. D of Sio, and I will not let you down. D of Sio, and I will not let you down. Please help us. Really appreciate it. Please help us. Really appreciate it. Please help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show. [music] Robert P, with everything that's going Robert P, with everything that's going on with Iran at the moment, the US Iran on with Iran at the moment, the US Iran on with Iran at the moment, the US Iran war, and everything that I've learned war, and everything that I've learned war, and everything that I've learned from you in the two previous from you in the two previous from you in the two previous conversations we've had on the D of a conversations we've had on the D of a conversations we've had on the D of a CEO, I'm guessing that you're not really CEO, I'm guessing that you're not really CEO, I'm guessing that you're not really surprised by what we're seeing now. No, surprised by what we're seeing now. No, surprised by what we're seeing now. No, I'm not. I've been modeling the bombing I'm not. I've been modeling the bombing I'm not. I've been modeling the bombing of Iran for 20 years. The uh the fact is of Iran for 20 years. The uh the fact is of Iran for 20 years. The uh the fact is the modeling has held up and literally the modeling has held up and literally the modeling has held up and literally month by month by month uh when we were month by month by month uh when we were month by month by month uh when we were first here the big surprise for most first here the big surprise for most first here the big surprise for most people was that we bombed the regime in people was that we bombed the regime in people was that we bombed the regime in Iran and it still stood. It survived Iran and it still stood. It survived Iran and it still stood. It survived even though uh we killed the supreme even though uh we killed the supreme even though uh we killed the supreme leader and something like 137 of their leader and something like 137 of their leader and something like 137 of their top leaders. Think about that. So that top leaders. Think about that. So that top leaders. Think about that. So that would be like if somebody killed our would be like if somebody killed our would be like if somebody killed our president, his wife, the first lady, president, his wife, the first lady, president, his wife, the first lady, members of the first family, half of the members of the first family, half of the members of the first family, half of the cabinet, all of the leaders in the cabinet, all of the leaders in the cabinet, all of the leaders in the Pentagon, all of the leaders in the CIA, Pentagon, all of the leaders in the CIA, Pentagon, all of the leaders in the CIA, and about a third of the Congress.

and about a third of the Congress. and about a third of the Congress. That is what we did to Iran in those That is what we did to Iran in those That is what we did to Iran in those opening weeks in March. And nonetheless, opening weeks in March. And nonetheless, opening weeks in March. And nonetheless, that regime survived. And that was that regime survived. And that was that regime survived. And that was something the modeling showed for that something the modeling showed for that something the modeling showed for that 20 years that was based on uh 20 years that was based on uh 20 years that was based on uh substantial um patterns in history uh substantial um patterns in history uh substantial um patterns in history uh where air power alone had never toppled where air power alone had never toppled where air power alone had never toppled a regime going all the way back to World a regime going all the way back to World a regime going all the way back to World War I. Most people had not really heard War I. Most people had not really heard War I. Most people had not really heard that before. Many people even in the that before. Many people even in the that before. Many people even in the military did not fully know how much military did not fully know how much military did not fully know how much President Trump went up against the President Trump went up against the President Trump went up against the weight of history. Then we shifted. We weight of history. Then we shifted. We weight of history. Then we shifted. We shifted to uh six weeks of a bombing shifted to uh six weeks of a bombing shifted to uh six weeks of a bombing campaign. And then what did we do? we campaign. And then what did we do? we campaign. And then what did we do? we shifted over to a two-month blockade. shifted over to a two-month blockade. shifted over to a two-month blockade. Well, that was another version of Well, that was another version of Well, that was another version of punishment. So, the US said that they punishment. So, the US said that they punishment. So, the US said that they were going to block the straight of were going to block the straight of were going to block the straight of Hormuse, basically trying to take Hormuse, basically trying to take Hormuse, basically trying to take control of it themselves and therefore control of it themselves and therefore control of it themselves and therefore kind of punishing the rest of the world. kind of punishing the rest of the world. kind of punishing the rest of the world. >> U well, they they didn't want to punish >> U well, they they didn't want to punish >> U well, they they didn't want to punish the world. What they were that did the world. What they were that did the world. What they were that did happen, but what they wanted to do was happen, but what they wanted to do was happen, but what they wanted to do was punish Iran. So, they were trying to punish Iran. So, they were trying to punish Iran. So, they were trying to coers Iran to get the government to coers Iran to get the government to coers Iran to get the government to surrender control of Hormuz. So keep in surrender control of Hormuz. So keep in surrender control of Hormuz. So keep in mind what happened is on February 28th mind what happened is on February 28th mind what happened is on February 28th that regime change bombing happened and that regime change bombing happened and that regime change bombing happened and it went on for a few days but by March it went on for a few days but by March it went on for a few days but by March 2nd March 3rd Iran controlled Hormuz 2nd March 3rd Iran controlled Hormuz 2nd March 3rd Iran controlled Hormuz literally within a few days the ships literally within a few days the ships literally within a few days the ships stopped cold and they basically have not stopped cold and they basically have not stopped cold and they basically have not reopened except for teenytiny periods of reopened except for teenytiny periods of reopened except for teenytiny periods of time in a small in a modest way and then time in a small in a modest way and then time in a small in a modest way and then you're stuck. How do you get Iran to

you're stuck. How do you get Iran to you're stuck. How do you get Iran to give up control of Hormuz or do you let give up control of Hormuz or do you let give up control of Hormuz or do you let Iran continue to uh control Hormuz for Iran continue to uh control Hormuz for Iran continue to uh control Hormuz for as far as the eye can see? That's been as far as the eye can see? That's been as far as the eye can see? That's been the dilemma we've been in, Stephen, the dilemma we've been in, Stephen, the dilemma we've been in, Stephen, since really the first week in March. since really the first week in March. since really the first week in March. And now it's become clearer to the world And now it's become clearer to the world And now it's become clearer to the world that has the core dilemma. We're at a that has the core dilemma. We're at a that has the core dilemma. We're at a fork in the road. Either we physically fork in the road. Either we physically fork in the road. Either we physically take hormones back all those other take hormones back all those other take hormones back all those other tactou didn't work. didn't get tactou didn't work. didn't get tactou didn't work. didn't get >> theou >> theou >> theou >> uh the memorandum of understanding >> uh the memorandum of understanding >> uh the memorandum of understanding >> which was the I sat here with JD Vance >> which was the I sat here with JD Vance >> which was the I sat here with JD Vance and he told me that they were about to and he told me that they were about to and he told me that they were about to sign an agreement with Iran to sign an agreement with Iran to sign an agreement with Iran to ultimately end the war and they had that ultimately end the war and they had that ultimately end the war and they had that agreement. agreement. agreement. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> JD told me that it was about to be >> JD told me that it was about to be >> JD told me that it was about to be signed. Couple weeks later here we are. signed. Couple weeks later here we are. signed. Couple weeks later here we are. They're back to bombing each other. They're back to bombing each other. They're back to bombing each other. >> Yeah. There's really two big issues with >> Yeah. There's really two big issues with >> Yeah. There's really two big issues with this Stephen with theou this Stephen with theou this Stephen with theou the memorandum of understanding. Um, I the memorandum of understanding. Um, I the memorandum of understanding. Um, I do believe that uh uh Vice President do believe that uh uh Vice President do believe that uh uh Vice President Vance sincerely thought it was going to Vance sincerely thought it was going to Vance sincerely thought it was going to uh had a good chance of ending the war.

uh had a good chance of ending the war. uh had a good chance of ending the war. Uh, but there's a big problem here, Uh, but there's a big problem here, Uh, but there's a big problem here, Stephen, which is when you listen to Stephen, which is when you listen to Stephen, which is when you listen to Vice President Vance, he approached this Vice President Vance, he approached this Vice President Vance, he approached this as a business deal. So, he kept talking as a business deal. So, he kept talking as a business deal. So, he kept talking about all the benefits that were going about all the benefits that were going about all the benefits that were going to come to Iran if they performed a fee to come to Iran if they performed a fee to come to Iran if they performed a fee for service. We want the straight open for service. We want the straight open for service. We want the straight open and we're going to offer you money in and we're going to offer you money in and we're going to offer you money in different ways if you will open the different ways if you will open the different ways if you will open the straight. Well, this is just a straight. Well, this is just a straight. Well, this is just a fundamental misunderstanding of fundamental misunderstanding of fundamental misunderstanding of international politics. This may work international politics. This may work international politics. This may work great in real estate. I'm not saying it great in real estate. I'm not saying it great in real estate. I'm not saying it doesn't, but in a ma major war like doesn't, but in a ma major war like doesn't, but in a ma major war like this, what's at stake is the balance of this, what's at stake is the balance of this, what's at stake is the balance of power. The balance of power. Now, I want power. The balance of power. Now, I want power. The balance of power. Now, I want to explain that before the war, before to explain that before the war, before to explain that before the war, before the war started, there was a balance of the war started, there was a balance of the war started, there was a balance of power where America was ascended. Israel power where America was ascended. Israel power where America was ascended. Israel was the rising power and Iran was was the rising power and Iran was was the rising power and Iran was actually the declining power in the actually the declining power in the actually the declining power in the region. What happened almost within region. What happened almost within region. What happened almost within again two weeks of the war starting is again two weeks of the war starting is again two weeks of the war starting is the balance of power was shifting the balance of power was shifting the balance of power was shifting dramatically when Iran became in control dramatically when Iran became in control dramatically when Iran became in control of form. This represents tremendous of form. This represents tremendous of form. This represents tremendous power in the future. that wealth, all of power in the future. that wealth, all of power in the future. that wealth, all of the potential that uh even though it the potential that uh even though it the potential that uh even though it hadn't been realized yet, equates to not hadn't been realized yet, equates to not hadn't been realized yet, equates to not just money to put in coffers, but it just money to put in coffers, but it just money to put in coffers, but it equates to military power. It equates to equates to military power. It equates to equates to military power. It equates to the ability to influence other states in the ability to influence other states in the ability to influence other states in the region to build a sphere of the region to build a sphere of the region to build a sphere of influence. This is power in terms of influence. This is power in terms of influence. This is power in terms of major power politics that was shifting major power politics that was shifting major power politics that was shifting here. And so with theou as uh you look

here. And so with theou as uh you look here. And so with theou as uh you look at theou JD Vance appears we could just at theou JD Vance appears we could just at theou JD Vance appears we could just look at it he appears to have thought look at it he appears to have thought look at it he appears to have thought this was a business deal. So he appears this was a business deal. So he appears this was a business deal. So he appears to have thought we're going to hold up to have thought we're going to hold up to have thought we're going to hold up the uh promise of say $300 billion it the uh promise of say $300 billion it the uh promise of say $300 billion it will eventually fall on you if you will will eventually fall on you if you will will eventually fall on you if you will just to agree to do what we want and just to agree to do what we want and just to agree to do what we want and behave. Those aren't the clauses that behave. Those aren't the clauses that behave. Those aren't the clauses that matter to Iran. The clauses that matter to Iran. The clauses that matter to Iran. The clauses that mattered to Iran were the clauses which mattered to Iran were the clauses which mattered to Iran were the clauses which directly relate to the balance of power directly relate to the balance of power directly relate to the balance of power in solidifying Iran in solidifying Iran in solidifying Iran uh its control of Hormuz and essentially uh its control of Hormuz and essentially uh its control of Hormuz and essentially thisou is fundamentally a road map to thisou is fundamentally a road map to thisou is fundamentally a road map to Iran becoming the regional hegeimon. Iran becoming the regional hegeimon. Iran becoming the regional hegeimon. >> Heggeimon what does that mean? >> Heggeimon what does that mean? >> Heggeimon what does that mean? >> The most dominant state in the Persian >> The most dominant state in the Persian >> The most dominant state in the Persian Gulf in the Middle East. Wait, so you're Gulf in the Middle East. Wait, so you're Gulf in the Middle East. Wait, so you're saying that this agreement would make saying that this agreement would make saying that this agreement would make them the most dominant state in the them the most dominant state in the them the most dominant state in the Middle East? Middle East? Middle East? >> Absolutely. >> Absolutely. >> Absolutely. >> So why wouldn't they sign it within a >> So why wouldn't they sign it within a >> So why wouldn't they sign it within a heartbeat? heartbeat? heartbeat? >> They did. They did. Iran sign. In fact, >> They did. They did. Iran sign. In fact, >> They did. They did. Iran sign. In fact, most of these points were exactly the most of these points were exactly the most of these points were exactly the points that President Trump said he points that President Trump said he points that President Trump said he would never sign in April when Iran would never sign in April when Iran would never sign in April when Iran presented the initial 14-point plan in presented the initial 14-point plan in presented the initial 14-point plan in April. And the key back at war then?

April. And the key back at war then? April. And the key back at war then? Well, well, let me just explain the key Well, well, let me just explain the key Well, well, let me just explain the key the key things that happened here is the key things that happened here is the key things that happened here is that number one, notice in article five, that number one, notice in article five, that number one, notice in article five, it says that Iran will make the it says that Iran will make the it says that Iran will make the arrangements uh with Hormuz, that is the arrangements uh with Hormuz, that is the arrangements uh with Hormuz, that is the ships with Hormuz and it will not charge ships with Hormuz and it will not charge ships with Hormuz and it will not charge for 60 days. It doesn't say it will for 60 days. It doesn't say it will for 60 days. It doesn't say it will never charge. It says only 60 days. So, never charge. It says only 60 days. So, never charge. It says only 60 days. So, think about that. That this is already think about that. That this is already think about that. That this is already it written into the agreement that it written into the agreement that it written into the agreement that President Trump is signing. And then if President Trump is signing. And then if President Trump is signing. And then if you say, well, what's going to happen you say, well, what's going to happen you say, well, what's going to happen down the road? It's going to be Iran and down the road? It's going to be Iran and down the road? It's going to be Iran and Oman who are going to determine the Oman who are going to determine the Oman who are going to determine the future fees. There's no mention here of future fees. There's no mention here of future fees. There's no mention here of the United States. There's no clause to the United States. There's no clause to the United States. There's no clause to even let the United States wiggle itself even let the United States wiggle itself even let the United States wiggle itself in. This is a perfectly clearly written in. This is a perfectly clearly written in. This is a perfectly clearly written clause. And this basically gives Iran clause. And this basically gives Iran clause. And this basically gives Iran control of the straight of Hormuz and control of the straight of Hormuz and control of the straight of Hormuz and also of the the the discretion to set also of the the the discretion to set also of the the the discretion to set the fees for as far as the I can see the fees for as far as the I can see the fees for as far as the I can see with no constraint whatsoever. with no constraint whatsoever. with no constraint whatsoever. >> How do we know that this is the actual >> How do we know that this is the actual >> How do we know that this is the actual document?

document? document? >> Because both the Iranian government and >> Because both the Iranian government and >> Because both the Iranian government and the White House put out exactly the same the White House put out exactly the same the White House put out exactly the same document word for word um so that we can document word for word um so that we can document word for word um so that we can actually compare them literally word for actually compare them literally word for actually compare them literally word for word. So this is exactly the document word. So this is exactly the document word. So this is exactly the document that President Trump signed. There's no that President Trump signed. There's no that President Trump signed. There's no question that uh we have like an earlier question that uh we have like an earlier question that uh we have like an earlier draft. Now, there were some earlier draft. Now, there were some earlier draft. Now, there were some earlier drafts leaked by Bloomberg. That's not drafts leaked by Bloomberg. That's not drafts leaked by Bloomberg. That's not what this is. This is the final one. But what this is. This is the final one. But what this is. This is the final one. But let me go a little bit further here, let me go a little bit further here, let me go a little bit further here, Steve. So, here we're talking about the Steve. So, here we're talking about the Steve. So, here we're talking about the strategic base of Iran. And keep in strategic base of Iran. And keep in strategic base of Iran. And keep in mind, controlling hormuz means mind, controlling hormuz means mind, controlling hormuz means controlling 20% of the world's oil. controlling 20% of the world's oil. controlling 20% of the world's oil. That's a fantastic amount of wealth and That's a fantastic amount of wealth and That's a fantastic amount of wealth and strategic power to build on in the strategic power to build on in the strategic power to build on in the future. No limit says that nothing about future. No limit says that nothing about future. No limit says that nothing about you can't spend it on missiles, anything you can't spend it on missiles, anything you can't spend it on missiles, anything else. But up here with Lebanon, the else. But up here with Lebanon, the else. But up here with Lebanon, the first article. So here, first article. So here, first article. So here, >> so when you say article, this document >> so when you say article, this document >> so when you say article, this document contains 10, is it 10? contains 10, is it 10? contains 10, is it 10? >> 14 different points. And when you say >> 14 different points. And when you say >> 14 different points. And when you say >> 14 different points and there's three >> 14 different points and there's three >> 14 different points and there's three points that are really the critical points that are really the critical points that are really the critical action points that matter here. this action points that matter here. this action points that matter here. this promise of $300 billion dollars down the promise of $300 billion dollars down the promise of $300 billion dollars down the road, this is so far, you know, th this road, this is so far, you know, th this road, this is so far, you know, th this is like holding out um uh funny money to is like holding out um uh funny money to is like holding out um uh funny money to the Iranians. These are the things that the Iranians. These are the things that the Iranians. These are the things that are actually short-term because this is are actually short-term because this is are actually short-term because this is happening now.

happening now. happening now. >> So, point one, you're saying >> So, point one, you're saying >> So, point one, you're saying >> point one I want to come back to, >> point one I want to come back to, >> point one I want to come back to, Stephen, because I want to explain this Stephen, because I want to explain this Stephen, because I want to explain this is Iran's strategic base. is Iran's strategic base. is Iran's strategic base. >> Point number five, >> Point number five, >> Point number five, >> point number five. But what happens to >> point number five. But what happens to >> point number five. But what happens to become the dominant power in the region? become the dominant power in the region? become the dominant power in the region? You need more than a strategic base. You You need more than a strategic base. You You need more than a strategic base. You want a sphere of influence. You want a want a sphere of influence. You want a want a sphere of influence. You want a sphere of influence here. And can I just sphere of influence here. And can I just sphere of influence here. And can I just can we so I'll hold this up here. Is can we so I'll hold this up here. Is can we so I'll hold this up here. Is that that that >> Yeah, that's good. That's good. Point >> Yeah, that's good. That's good. Point >> Yeah, that's good. That's good. Point number five is controlling the straight number five is controlling the straight number five is controlling the straight of Hormuz. But many of uh the different of Hormuz. But many of uh the different of Hormuz. But many of uh the different countries including Saudi Arabia. You countries including Saudi Arabia. You countries including Saudi Arabia. You have already started to have pipelines have already started to have pipelines have already started to have pipelines to bypass the straight of Hormos. There to bypass the straight of Hormos. There to bypass the straight of Hormos. There were plans to do this for years. They were plans to do this for years. They were plans to do this for years. They were too expensive. But almost were too expensive. But almost were too expensive. But almost immediately uh they started to do that. immediately uh they started to do that. immediately uh they started to do that. So the Saudi Saudi Arabia started to put So the Saudi Saudi Arabia started to put So the Saudi Saudi Arabia started to put out four to five million barrels of oil out four to five million barrels of oil out four to five million barrels of oil a day starting in mid-March uh into the a day starting in mid-March uh into the a day starting in mid-March uh into the Red Sea on a pipeline that had already Red Sea on a pipeline that had already Red Sea on a pipeline that had already been built and hadn't been used. There's been built and hadn't been used. There's been built and hadn't been used. There's a a little area here called Fujyra which a a little area here called Fujyra which a a little area here called Fujyra which is where the UAE had a pipeline that's is where the UAE had a pipeline that's is where the UAE had a pipeline that's almost 2 million barrels a day. So 20 almost 2 million barrels a day. So 20 almost 2 million barrels a day. So 20 million barrels a day were going through million barrels a day were going through million barrels a day were going through Hormuz almost immediately 7 million were Hormuz almost immediately 7 million were Hormuz almost immediately 7 million were being bypassed. Then there's all this being bypassed. Then there's all this being bypassed. Then there's all this discussion that Iraq might build some discussion that Iraq might build some discussion that Iraq might build some pipelines. There might be other pipelines. There might be other pipelines. There might be other pipelines here going through Syria. So pipelines here going through Syria. So pipelines here going through Syria. So what if you're Iran, you now control what if you're Iran, you now control what if you're Iran, you now control this. But notice it's a declining asset this. But notice it's a declining asset this. But notice it's a declining asset that way. If you only control Hormuz that way. If you only control Hormuz that way. If you only control Hormuz within 5 years, good chance your power within 5 years, good chance your power within 5 years, good chance your power is going to be whittleled away. What you

is going to be whittleled away. What you is going to be whittleled away. What you want to do is you want a sphere of want to do is you want a sphere of want to do is you want a sphere of influence. So what Iran started to talk influence. So what Iran started to talk influence. So what Iran started to talk about is their security resistance belt about is their security resistance belt about is their security resistance belt where they wanted to control and they where they wanted to control and they where they wanted to control and they said from the Mediterranean said from the Mediterranean said from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea to the Gulf. This was the to the Red Sea to the Gulf. This was the to the Red Sea to the Gulf. This was the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard. And leaders of the Revolutionary Guard. And leaders of the Revolutionary Guard. And why would you do that? Because you want why would you do that? Because you want why would you do that? Because you want to prevent all of those bypasses to to prevent all of those bypasses to to prevent all of those bypasses to Hormuz. And they're already happening. Hormuz. And they're already happening. Hormuz. And they're already happening. And where's the key one? You don't you And where's the key one? You don't you And where's the key one? You don't you already have the Houthies down here. You already have the Houthies down here. You already have the Houthies down here. You have Hezbollah here, but you want to have Hezbollah here, but you want to have Hezbollah here, but you want to make sure the Houthies are pretty secure make sure the Houthies are pretty secure make sure the Houthies are pretty secure right here. It was right here. It was right here. It was >> So, just again for the people that can't >> So, just again for the people that can't >> So, just again for the people that can't see. see. see. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> So, you're saying the Houthies are >> So, you're saying the Houthies are >> So, you're saying the Houthies are pretty secure where pretty secure where pretty secure where >> the Houthies are pretty secure down here >> the Houthies are pretty secure down here >> the Houthies are pretty secure down here in Yemen. They've been fighting uh with in Yemen. They've been fighting uh with in Yemen. They've been fighting uh with the Saudis for quite some time. They've the Saudis for quite some time. They've the Saudis for quite some time. They've held their own. Uh we fought a war with held their own. Uh we fought a war with held their own. Uh we fought a war with the the uh the Houthies in May 2025 the the uh the Houthies in May 2025 the the uh the Houthies in May 2025 to try to get them to uh pull back from to try to get them to uh pull back from to try to get them to uh pull back from a temporary shutdown of the Red Sea. And a temporary shutdown of the Red Sea. And a temporary shutdown of the Red Sea. And we lost essentially. Um so we couldn't we lost essentially. Um so we couldn't we lost essentially. Um so we couldn't beat them. But the big one that was at beat them. But the big one that was at beat them. But the big one that was at issue was uh Lebanon. And it's and my issue was uh Lebanon. And it's and my issue was uh Lebanon. And it's and my point is it's not so much that they love point is it's not so much that they love point is it's not so much that they love Hezbollah. They do of course they've had Hezbollah. They do of course they've had Hezbollah. They do of course they've had long time uh decades of relationships long time uh decades of relationships long time uh decades of relationships with Hezbollah ideologically. There's with Hezbollah ideologically. There's with Hezbollah ideologically. There's there uh there's good reasons for that.

there uh there's good reasons for that. there uh there's good reasons for that. But there's something else that's a But there's something else that's a But there's something else that's a power reason that's being ignored uh power reason that's being ignored uh power reason that's being ignored uh here, which is you want Hezbollah to here, which is you want Hezbollah to here, which is you want Hezbollah to have drones right here in Lebanon. So if have drones right here in Lebanon. So if have drones right here in Lebanon. So if there's a pipeline that comes out here there's a pipeline that comes out here there's a pipeline that comes out here through Syria, if you've got some other through Syria, if you've got some other through Syria, if you've got some other pipelines that are coming out here, pipelines that are coming out here, pipelines that are coming out here, you've got Hezbollah here that can act you've got Hezbollah here that can act you've got Hezbollah here that can act as your Houthies. They can actually as your Houthies. They can actually as your Houthies. They can actually attack the shipping. So now you have a attack the shipping. So now you have a attack the shipping. So now you have a you're you're Iran. You're a major you're you're Iran. You're a major you're you're Iran. You're a major power. You're the dominant power in the power. You're the dominant power in the power. You're the dominant power in the region. You don't just control this area region. You don't just control this area region. You don't just control this area here and the straight of here and the straight of here and the straight of >> the straight of Formuz and Iran itself. >> the straight of Formuz and Iran itself. >> the straight of Formuz and Iran itself. You have an arc, a security arc here You have an arc, a security arc here You have an arc, a security arc here that in uh is a sphere of influence, but that in uh is a sphere of influence, but that in uh is a sphere of influence, but it's an operational sphere of influence. it's an operational sphere of influence. it's an operational sphere of influence. This is not just a piece of paper or This is not just a piece of paper or This is not just a piece of paper or something to talk about. This is what's something to talk about. This is what's something to talk about. This is what's guaranteeing you. You control all of guaranteeing you. You control all of guaranteeing you. You control all of that oil whether it the oil from the that oil whether it the oil from the that oil whether it the oil from the Persian Gulf comes out through Hormuz, Persian Gulf comes out through Hormuz, Persian Gulf comes out through Hormuz, whether it comes out through Syria or whether it comes out through Syria or whether it comes out through Syria or whether it comes out through the Red whether it comes out through the Red whether it comes out through the Red Sea. And that's what article one is Sea. And that's what article one is Sea. And that's what article one is about. So how come about. So how come about. So how come >> that's what I'm saying is not when I >> that's what I'm saying is not when I >> that's what I'm saying is not when I listen to Vice President Vance, which listen to Vice President Vance, which listen to Vice President Vance, which I've listened to your interview and I've listened to your interview and I've listened to your interview and other interviews, a super smart guy.

other interviews, a super smart guy. other interviews, a super smart guy. Okay, this is not a matter of that. Okay, this is not a matter of that. Okay, this is not a matter of that. Okay. Uh but he's thinking of it as a Okay. Uh but he's thinking of it as a Okay. Uh but he's thinking of it as a business deal. We want Hormuz open. business deal. We want Hormuz open. business deal. We want Hormuz open. what's it going to take to pay? They're what's it going to take to pay? They're what's it going to take to pay? They're not looking at that. They're looking at not looking at that. They're looking at not looking at that. They're looking at they want to be a regional hedgeimon. they want to be a regional hedgeimon. they want to be a regional hedgeimon. This is their roadmap and that's why This is their roadmap and that's why This is their roadmap and that's why they stuck to those goals. But they they stuck to those goals. But they they stuck to those goals. But they signed this document, but then the war signed this document, but then the war signed this document, but then the war has kicked off anyway again because what has kicked off anyway again because what has kicked off anyway again because what happened is President Trump signed the happened is President Trump signed the happened is President Trump signed the document. He owned the document for it document. He owned the document for it document. He owned the document for it for a day. He explained that he signed for a day. He explained that he signed for a day. He explained that he signed the document because this was literally the document because this was literally the document because this was literally four weeks ago because the world was four weeks ago because the world was four weeks ago because the world was going to run out of oil in four weeks going to run out of oil in four weeks going to run out of oil in four weeks and he wanted to open Hormuse. So, and he wanted to open Hormuse. So, and he wanted to open Hormuse. So, President Trump saw this as a way to try President Trump saw this as a way to try President Trump saw this as a way to try to uh open Hormuse. But what happened to uh open Hormuse. But what happened to uh open Hormuse. But what happened immediately after President Trump signed immediately after President Trump signed immediately after President Trump signed the document literally starting in the the document literally starting in the the document literally starting in the next 48 hours is uh President Trump next 48 hours is uh President Trump next 48 hours is uh President Trump started to and his administration started to and his administration started to and his administration started to undermine the document started to undermine the document started to undermine the document violate the clauses in that document. So violate the clauses in that document. So violate the clauses in that document. So issue number one was Secretary Rubio issue number one was Secretary Rubio issue number one was Secretary Rubio establishing a framework accord establishing a framework accord establishing a framework accord agreement in Lebanon which essentially agreement in Lebanon which essentially agreement in Lebanon which essentially would lock in Israel's military presence would lock in Israel's military presence would lock in Israel's military presence in Lebanon as far as the eye could see.

in Lebanon as far as the eye could see. in Lebanon as far as the eye could see. Whereas article one in the document says Whereas article one in the document says Whereas article one in the document says that uh the United States would that uh the United States would that uh the United States would guarantee the territorial integrity of guarantee the territorial integrity of guarantee the territorial integrity of Lebanon which I'm everybody would Lebanon which I'm everybody would Lebanon which I'm everybody would realize would mean Israel is is realize would mean Israel is is realize would mean Israel is is violating the territorial integrity of violating the territorial integrity of violating the territorial integrity of Lebanon. It's not ensuring it. So that Lebanon. It's not ensuring it. So that Lebanon. It's not ensuring it. So that would mean Israel can't be locked in would mean Israel can't be locked in would mean Israel can't be locked in there and still be faithful to Article there and still be faithful to Article there and still be faithful to Article One. So the framework agreement One. So the framework agreement One. So the framework agreement immediately violates article one. The immediately violates article one. The immediately violates article one. The second thing that happened and this second thing that happened and this second thing that happened and this happened shortly after the framework happened shortly after the framework happened shortly after the framework accord is President Trump started to accord is President Trump started to accord is President Trump started to encourage uh passage through the encourage uh passage through the encourage uh passage through the straight of Hormuz uh through the straight of Hormuz uh through the straight of Hormuz uh through the southern uh there's three routes through southern uh there's three routes through southern uh there's three routes through the straight of Hormuz. The central the straight of Hormuz. The central the straight of Hormuz. The central route which used to be in existence the route which used to be in existence the route which used to be in existence the main route before the war now that's main route before the war now that's main route before the war now that's where the 80 mines are. So, nobody's where the 80 mines are. So, nobody's where the 80 mines are. So, nobody's using the Sentra. They're either passing using the Sentra. They're either passing using the Sentra. They're either passing through the southern avenue, which is through the southern avenue, which is through the southern avenue, which is the one close to uh Oman, or they're the one close to uh Oman, or they're the one close to uh Oman, or they're passing through the Iranian passage, passing through the Iranian passage, passing through the Iranian passage, which is, of course, near the coast of which is, of course, near the coast of which is, of course, near the coast of Iran. And what President Trump did is he Iran. And what President Trump did is he Iran. And what President Trump did is he started to encourage this passageway started to encourage this passageway started to encourage this passageway ships to um bypass or pass through ships to um bypass or pass through ships to um bypass or pass through Hormuz on the southern passageway, but Hormuz on the southern passageway, but Hormuz on the southern passageway, but with no coordination with Iran, with no with no coordination with Iran, with no with no coordination with Iran, with no um even u often with their transponders um even u often with their transponders um even u often with their transponders turned off. In fact, President Trump was turned off. In fact, President Trump was turned off. In fact, President Trump was bragging about this as his secret way to bragging about this as his secret way to bragging about this as his secret way to sort of uh bypass Iran's control of the sort of uh bypass Iran's control of the sort of uh bypass Iran's control of the straight of form. He literally bragged straight of form. He literally bragged straight of form. He literally bragged about this on multiple posts on true about this on multiple posts on true about this on multiple posts on true social. Well, that directly uh social. Well, that directly uh social. Well, that directly uh contravenes article 5. Um and then the contravenes article 5. Um and then the contravenes article 5. Um and then the third thing that happened is if you look

third thing that happened is if you look third thing that happened is if you look at we haven't looked at article 11 but at we haven't looked at article 11 but at we haven't looked at article 11 but if we look at article 11 you would see if we look at article 11 you would see if we look at article 11 you would see that Iran was um uh due to have some of that Iran was um uh due to have some of that Iran was um uh due to have some of its frozen asset some of its assets that its frozen asset some of its assets that its frozen asset some of its assets that were seized by the United States and were seized by the United States and were seized by the United States and have been held for decades unfrozen have been held for decades unfrozen have been held for decades unfrozen and it and there's a specific sentence and it and there's a specific sentence and it and there's a specific sentence which gives Iran the exclusive right to which gives Iran the exclusive right to which gives Iran the exclusive right to determine um what's going to happen with determine um what's going to happen with determine um what's going to happen with that money and what President Trump said that money and what President Trump said that money and what President Trump said is they can have their money but only if is they can have their money but only if is they can have their money but only if they give it to the farmers the US they give it to the farmers the US they give it to the farmers the US farmers and buy American grain. That's farmers and buy American grain. That's farmers and buy American grain. That's the third violation of theou. So what the third violation of theou. So what the third violation of theou. So what happened here Stephen is President Trump happened here Stephen is President Trump happened here Stephen is President Trump owned theou he and was faithful to it uh owned theou he and was faithful to it uh owned theou he and was faithful to it uh for at least a day maybe two and this for at least a day maybe two and this for at least a day maybe two and this represented a strategic defeat for the represented a strategic defeat for the represented a strategic defeat for the United States. And he even explained why United States. And he even explained why United States. And he even explained why he accepted that strategic defeat very he accepted that strategic defeat very he accepted that strategic defeat very clearly and forthrightly. I call that clearly and forthrightly. I call that clearly and forthrightly. I call that owning the loss. He owned the loss for owning the loss. He owned the loss for owning the loss. He owned the loss for about a day or two, but then he tried to about a day or two, but then he tried to about a day or two, but then he tried to reverse the loss almost immediately, reverse the loss almost immediately, reverse the loss almost immediately, Stephen. And that's how we're back at Stephen. And that's how we're back at Stephen. And that's how we're back at war. Because the big miscalculation that war. Because the big miscalculation that war. Because the big miscalculation that happened in this period was assuming happened in this period was assuming happened in this period was assuming that if President Trump didn't restart that if President Trump didn't restart that if President Trump didn't restart the war, the war would be over. The mis the war, the war would be over. The mis the war, the war would be over. The mis what? Who started the war? Who started what? Who started the war? Who started what? Who started the war? Who started to shoot the ships in the straight of to shoot the ships in the straight of to shoot the ships in the straight of Formuz? It was the Iranians. Why did Formuz? It was the Iranians. Why did Formuz? It was the Iranians. Why did they do that? Because we were violating

they do that? Because we were violating they do that? Because we were violating theou, bypassing their control of the theou, bypassing their control of the theou, bypassing their control of the straight of Hormuz, and that means straight of Hormuz, and that means straight of Hormuz, and that means preventing Iran from becoming the preventing Iran from becoming the preventing Iran from becoming the regional power, the rising regional regional power, the rising regional regional power, the rising regional power, ultimately the regional hegeimon. power, ultimately the regional hegeimon. power, ultimately the regional hegeimon. So this is why they violated. It wasn't So this is why they violated. It wasn't So this is why they violated. It wasn't so much a legal understanding. This is so much a legal understanding. This is so much a legal understanding. This is great power politics. Stephen, Iran great power politics. Stephen, Iran great power politics. Stephen, Iran wants to be the dominant state in the wants to be the dominant state in the wants to be the dominant state in the region. The United States does not want region. The United States does not want region. The United States does not want Iran to be the dominant state in the Iran to be the dominant state in the Iran to be the dominant state in the region. That has what is what this war region. That has what is what this war region. That has what is what this war has been about since the first week in has been about since the first week in has been about since the first week in March and now it's 5 months later and March and now it's 5 months later and March and now it's 5 months later and we're still at that point. we're still at that point. we're still at that point. There should be a button just down below There should be a button just down below There should be a button just down below here and if it says subscribed, you're here and if it says subscribed, you're here and if it says subscribed, you're already subscribed. If it says already subscribed. If it says already subscribed. If it says subscriber, that means you're not yet. subscriber, that means you're not yet. subscriber, that means you're not yet. And if you're not subscribed, please And if you're not subscribed, please And if you're not subscribed, please could you do us a favor and hit that could you do us a favor and hit that could you do us a favor and hit that button? It helps the show more than you button? It helps the show more than you button? It helps the show more than you know. And according to the algorithm, know. And according to the algorithm, know. And according to the algorithm, you're someone that watches our show, you're someone that watches our show, you're someone that watches our show, but you haven't yet hit that button.

but you haven't yet hit that button. but you haven't yet hit that button. Thank you so much. Did Iran charge Thank you so much. Did Iran charge Thank you so much. Did Iran charge people to go through the Straight of people to go through the Straight of people to go through the Straight of Hormuse before this? Hormuse before this? Hormuse before this? >> No, never did. Did they control the >> No, never did. Did they control the >> No, never did. Did they control the Straight of Hormuz at all? Well, before Straight of Hormuz at all? Well, before Straight of Hormuz at all? Well, before uh the war started, not at all. Before uh the war started, not at all. Before uh the war started, not at all. Before the before February 28, Iran did not the before February 28, Iran did not the before February 28, Iran did not control the straight of Hormuz. What control the straight of Hormuz. What control the straight of Hormuz. What Iran did is it moved from survival to Iran did is it moved from survival to Iran did is it moved from survival to ambition. So Iran saw there was an ambition. So Iran saw there was an ambition. So Iran saw there was an opportunity with the bombing uh because opportunity with the bombing uh because opportunity with the bombing uh because the United States had no mil we didn't the United States had no mil we didn't the United States had no mil we didn't even have our navy here. There was no even have our navy here. There was no even have our navy here. There was no means whatsoever uh to sort of offset means whatsoever uh to sort of offset means whatsoever uh to sort of offset this this uh Iran's uh control of the this this uh Iran's uh control of the this this uh Iran's uh control of the straight of hormones. Nothing at all. straight of hormones. Nothing at all. straight of hormones. Nothing at all. Iran took this as an opportunity and the Iran took this as an opportunity and the Iran took this as an opportunity and the opportunity was to seize power. So is it opportunity was to seize power. So is it opportunity was to seize power. So is it fair to hypothesize that actually this fair to hypothesize that actually this fair to hypothesize that actually this war might have strengthened Iran because war might have strengthened Iran because war might have strengthened Iran because now it has this control over energy on a now it has this control over energy on a now it has this control over energy on a global basis that it didn't have before. global basis that it didn't have before. global basis that it didn't have before. >> Without a doubt. Without a doubt, >> Without a doubt. Without a doubt, >> Without a doubt. Without a doubt, Stephen. I don't say this with any Stephen. I don't say this with any Stephen. I don't say this with any happiness. There's really no question at happiness. There's really no question at happiness. There's really no question at this point that Iran is stronger today this point that Iran is stronger today this point that Iran is stronger today than it was before the war started on than it was before the war started on than it was before the war started on February 28th. And that's because it February 28th. And that's because it February 28th. And that's because it controls uh the Strait of Hormuz, controls uh the Strait of Hormuz, controls uh the Strait of Hormuz, meaning that it can threaten at will meaning that it can threaten at will meaning that it can threaten at will virtually any ship that goes through the virtually any ship that goes through the virtually any ship that goes through the Straight of Hormuz. It's demonstrated Straight of Hormuz. It's demonstrated Straight of Hormuz. It's demonstrated this over and over and over again. Even this over and over and over again. Even this over and over and over again. Even when the ships turn off their

when the ships turn off their when the ships turn off their transponders, they are still able to transponders, they are still able to transponders, they are still able to threaten ships as they go through. And threaten ships as they go through. And threaten ships as they go through. And every time a ship tries to run the every time a ship tries to run the every time a ship tries to run the gauntlet, they run into a drone, a mine, gauntlet, they run into a drone, a mine, gauntlet, they run into a drone, a mine, they run into basically Iran's barrier, they run into basically Iran's barrier, they run into basically Iran's barrier, and that is Iran's power. and that is Iran's power. and that is Iran's power. >> There was a a tweet that went viral this >> There was a a tweet that went viral this >> There was a a tweet that went viral this week um about this. I'm going to read week um about this. I'm going to read week um about this. I'm going to read the tweet here. It says, "I'm confused. the tweet here. It says, "I'm confused. the tweet here. It says, "I'm confused. The US has the most powerful military on The US has the most powerful military on The US has the most powerful military on Earth. We've bombed the hell out of Iran Earth. We've bombed the hell out of Iran Earth. We've bombed the hell out of Iran for 4 months. Trump says their air for 4 months. Trump says their air for 4 months. Trump says their air force, navy, and nearly all of their force, navy, and nearly all of their force, navy, and nearly all of their missile capabilities are destroyed. So, missile capabilities are destroyed. So, missile capabilities are destroyed. So, how is Iran still capable of hitting US how is Iran still capable of hitting US how is Iran still capable of hitting US bases right now? Because only a small bases right now? Because only a small bases right now? Because only a small fraction of its drone arsenal is fraction of its drone arsenal is fraction of its drone arsenal is necessary uh and missile arsenal in necessary uh and missile arsenal in necessary uh and missile arsenal in order to inflict that damage. Iran order to inflict that damage. Iran order to inflict that damage. Iran entered this war with thousands, we entered this war with thousands, we entered this war with thousands, we think tens of thousands of drones, think tens of thousands of drones, think tens of thousands of drones, missile uh ballistic missiles, missile uh ballistic missiles, missile uh ballistic missiles, anti-shipping missiles, which are lower anti-shipping missiles, which are lower anti-shipping missiles, which are lower sea skimming cruise missiles. Um, and sea skimming cruise missiles. Um, and sea skimming cruise missiles. Um, and even though we have destroyed large even though we have destroyed large even though we have destroyed large fractions of their uh of their missiles, fractions of their uh of their missiles, fractions of their uh of their missiles, they have plenty left over to hit these they have plenty left over to hit these they have plenty left over to hit these uh these targets because they're doing uh these targets because they're doing uh these targets because they're doing saturation attacks. They're essentially saturation attacks. They're essentially saturation attacks. They're essentially doing swarms. They're saturating our uh doing swarms. They're saturating our uh doing swarms. They're saturating our uh our defensive capability and the the uh our defensive capability and the the uh our defensive capability and the the uh the drones and missiles to get through the drones and missiles to get through the drones and missiles to get through plenty enough to damage it to the point plenty enough to damage it to the point plenty enough to damage it to the point we can barely use it if if if at all.

we can barely use it if if if at all. we can barely use it if if if at all. >> So is it is it mainly drones that >> So is it is it mainly drones that >> So is it is it mainly drones that they're using at the moment to conduct they're using at the moment to conduct they're using at the moment to conduct these attacks on the straight of Himuz these attacks on the straight of Himuz these attacks on the straight of Himuz and on US bases? Uh it's been a and on US bases? Uh it's been a and on US bases? Uh it's been a combination in the m in in March. It was combination in the m in in March. It was combination in the m in in March. It was mostly intermediate range ballistic mostly intermediate range ballistic mostly intermediate range ballistic missiles and then drones since about the missiles and then drones since about the missiles and then drones since about the middle of March. Um until just quite middle of March. Um until just quite middle of March. Um until just quite recently it's mostly been drones except recently it's mostly been drones except recently it's mostly been drones except for Israel when Israel's been attacked. for Israel when Israel's been attacked. for Israel when Israel's been attacked. It's it's been very heavily with It's it's been very heavily with It's it's been very heavily with ballistic missiles. Uh but what you're ballistic missiles. Uh but what you're ballistic missiles. Uh but what you're seeing now that's just in the last week seeing now that's just in the last week seeing now that's just in the last week is you're starting to see the use of is you're starting to see the use of is you're starting to see the use of ballistic missiles. You're seeing the ballistic missiles. You're seeing the ballistic missiles. You're seeing the use of cruise missiles. These are these use of cruise missiles. These are these use of cruise missiles. These are these sea skimming missiles here and they're sea skimming missiles here and they're sea skimming missiles here and they're being used in against multiple targets. being used in against multiple targets. being used in against multiple targets. So the full arsenal that Iran has the So the full arsenal that Iran has the So the full arsenal that Iran has the full range of the arsenal it appears to full range of the arsenal it appears to full range of the arsenal it appears to be fully there full stocked very well be fully there full stocked very well be fully there full stocked very well and they're showing no signs of running and they're showing no signs of running and they're showing no signs of running out of ammo. If anybody's running out of out of ammo. If anybody's running out of out of ammo. If anybody's running out of ammo, it might be America running out of ammo, it might be America running out of ammo, it might be America running out of interceptors to shoot things down. Um, interceptors to shoot things down. Um, interceptors to shoot things down. Um, but we don't know that as a fact. And I but we don't know that as a fact. And I but we don't know that as a fact. And I think that what you're seeing is Iran think that what you're seeing is Iran think that what you're seeing is Iran has been highly intelligent intelligent has been highly intelligent intelligent has been highly intelligent intelligent about how it has deployed its its about how it has deployed its its about how it has deployed its its missiles. Trump said they have no navy.

missiles. Trump said they have no navy. missiles. Trump said they have no navy. It's been knocked out. They have no air It's been knocked out. They have no air It's been knocked out. They have no air force that's been knocked out. They have force that's been knocked out. They have force that's been knocked out. They have no air detection that's been knocked no air detection that's been knocked no air detection that's been knocked out. Their radar has been knocked out. out. Their radar has been knocked out. out. Their radar has been knocked out. And just about everything's been knocked And just about everything's been knocked And just about everything's been knocked out. Virtually everything they have has out. Virtually everything they have has out. Virtually everything they have has been knocked out. He said that on Truth been knocked out. He said that on Truth been knocked out. He said that on Truth Social in May 2026. If everything has Social in May 2026. If everything has Social in May 2026. If everything has been knocked out, been knocked out, been knocked out, >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> then how come there's no safe passage >> then how come there's no safe passage >> then how come there's no safe passage through the Straight of Hermoose? How through the Straight of Hermoose? How through the Straight of Hermoose? How come this weekend we saw more Americans come this weekend we saw more Americans come this weekend we saw more Americans tragically die um because of Iranian tragically die um because of Iranian tragically die um because of Iranian attacks? attacks? attacks? >> Because what they have left we can't >> Because what they have left we can't >> Because what they have left we can't knock out and is plenty to do the knock out and is plenty to do the knock out and is plenty to do the damage. That's the fundamental problem. damage. That's the fundamental problem. damage. That's the fundamental problem. We took out the easy stuff to hit. they We took out the easy stuff to hit. they We took out the easy stuff to hit. they didn't need it in order to seize control didn't need it in order to seize control didn't need it in order to seize control of hormones and keep hormones and start of hormones and keep hormones and start of hormones and keep hormones and start to defend themselves against uh more to defend themselves against uh more to defend themselves against uh more aggressive pressure. And the bottom line aggressive pressure. And the bottom line aggressive pressure. And the bottom line is that it's it's very difficult, if not is that it's it's very difficult, if not is that it's it's very difficult, if not impossible, to eliminate that impossible, to eliminate that impossible, to eliminate that capability. We would do it in a capability. We would do it in a capability. We would do it in a heartbeat if we could right away. heartbeat if we could right away. heartbeat if we could right away. >> Explain to me in just simple terms why >> Explain to me in just simple terms why >> Explain to me in just simple terms why it's so difficult to remove that it's so difficult to remove that it's so difficult to remove that capability. You know, I was looking at capability. You know, I was looking at capability. You know, I was looking at this picture here which shows the size this picture here which shows the size this picture here which shows the size of a drone relative to another object.

of a drone relative to another object. of a drone relative to another object. So, I guess there was two questions So, I guess there was two questions So, I guess there was two questions which is like where do they hide these which is like where do they hide these which is like where do they hide these and how easy it is is it to make one of and how easy it is is it to make one of and how easy it is is it to make one of these drones? So, they hide those drones these drones? So, they hide those drones these drones? So, they hide those drones Stephen everywhere. Okay. Stephen everywhere. Okay. Stephen everywhere. Okay. >> Okay. They can they're in drone caverns. >> Okay. They can they're in drone caverns. >> Okay. They can they're in drone caverns. They're in warehouses. They're in warehouses. They're in warehouses. They're everywhere. They could be. So They're everywhere. They could be. So They're everywhere. They could be. So that drone, just to kind of give you a that drone, just to kind of give you a that drone, just to kind of give you a sense here, would easily fit in this sense here, would easily fit in this sense here, would easily fit in this room. But the reason this is so room. But the reason this is so room. But the reason this is so difficult is notice how small that is difficult is notice how small that is difficult is notice how small that is here. That that drone compared to the here. That that drone compared to the here. That that drone compared to the scale of where it could be. And this is scale of where it could be. And this is scale of where it could be. And this is what I really want to uh show you what I really want to uh show you what I really want to uh show you because this is I think the hardest part because this is I think the hardest part because this is I think the hardest part to explain to to people as I'm talking to explain to to people as I'm talking to explain to to people as I'm talking in whatever format I'm talking is it's in whatever format I'm talking is it's in whatever format I'm talking is it's the scale of eliminating the drone and the scale of eliminating the drone and the scale of eliminating the drone and missile threat is much bigger than missile threat is much bigger than missile threat is much bigger than people realize because they're hearing people realize because they're hearing people realize because they're hearing measurements well we've destroyed x% and measurements well we've destroyed x% and measurements well we've destroyed x% and y% and that's why you're getting the y% and that's why you're getting the y% and that's why you're getting the question but if you look at this map question but if you look at this map question but if you look at this map this is what they where these drones this is what they where these drones this is what they where these drones these shah Heeds 136 could literally be these shah Heeds 136 could literally be these shah Heeds 136 could literally be anywhere in this radius, 500 mile area.

anywhere in this radius, 500 mile area. anywhere in this radius, 500 mile area. And notice how huge this area is. This And notice how huge this area is. This And notice how huge this area is. This area, this area like this is bigger than area, this area like this is bigger than area, this area like this is bigger than California. It's one and a half times California. It's one and a half times California. It's one and a half times the size of California. the size of California. the size of California. >> So I guess it's like trying to find a >> So I guess it's like trying to find a >> So I guess it's like trying to find a truck in California. truck in California. truck in California. >> It's like trying to find a truck in >> It's like trying to find a truck in >> It's like trying to find a truck in California. These little things here are California. These little things here are California. These little things here are the Shahed drones. Yeah. the Shahed drones. Yeah. the Shahed drones. Yeah. >> Okay. And what we're doing in this area, >> Okay. And what we're doing in this area, >> Okay. And what we're doing in this area, which is mountainous. So, this is why we which is mountainous. So, this is why we which is mountainous. So, this is why we have a a threedimensional, it's not just have a a threedimensional, it's not just have a a threedimensional, it's not just a two-dimensional problem. It's a a two-dimensional problem. It's a a two-dimensional problem. It's a threedimensional problem. threedimensional problem. threedimensional problem. >> We'll show some of these uh visuals on >> We'll show some of these uh visuals on >> We'll show some of these uh visuals on screen now just to show what the train screen now just to show what the train screen now just to show what the train where they're hiding these drones might where they're hiding these drones might where they're hiding these drones might be like. be like. be like. >> They could be anywhere in these >> They could be anywhere in these >> They could be anywhere in these mountains. There's all kinds. And if we mountains. There's all kinds. And if we mountains. There's all kinds. And if we kind of imagine this as a visual. So kind of imagine this as a visual. So kind of imagine this as a visual. So this is the general problem here we have this is the general problem here we have this is the general problem here we have which is just this stuff could be which is just this stuff could be which is just this stuff could be anywhere. And now these are the drones anywhere. And now these are the drones anywhere. And now these are the drones and this is the terrain that the drones and this is the terrain that the drones and this is the terrain that the drones are going to hide in. And notice I've are going to hide in. And notice I've are going to hide in. And notice I've just sprinkled some here. But now I'm just sprinkled some here. But now I'm just sprinkled some here. But now I'm going to cover these up with more going to cover these up with more going to cover these up with more terrain.

terrain. terrain. And notice you can't see those drones And notice you can't see those drones And notice you can't see those drones anymore. And now I'm going to put in anymore. And now I'm going to put in anymore. And now I'm going to put in some more drones somewhere else. And now some more drones somewhere else. And now some more drones somewhere else. And now we're going to put another layer in. And we're going to put another layer in. And we're going to put another layer in. And this is this is again it's the this is this is again it's the this is this is again it's the three-dimensional part of the problem. three-dimensional part of the problem. three-dimensional part of the problem. Meaning hard to find from the air. Now Meaning hard to find from the air. Now Meaning hard to find from the air. Now if I get my people out and I start going if I get my people out and I start going if I get my people out and I start going in now, I could start to dig them out. in now, I could start to dig them out. in now, I could start to dig them out. But let's just keep doing this for a But let's just keep doing this for a But let's just keep doing this for a while. So now I'm putting in another say while. So now I'm putting in another say while. So now I'm putting in another say 20 drones. And I'm going to cover it yet 20 drones. And I'm going to cover it yet 20 drones. And I'm going to cover it yet again. again. again. And then I'm going to put in uh another And then I'm going to put in uh another And then I'm going to put in uh another set of drones. set of drones. set of drones. And I'm covering it yet again. And I'm covering it yet again. And I'm covering it yet again. >> I guess you could put all the drones in >> I guess you could put all the drones in >> I guess you could put all the drones in there and you you would still be able to there and you you would still be able to there and you you would still be able to cover them. cover them. cover them. >> You would. Yes. But you wouldn't do it >> You would. Yes. But you wouldn't do it >> You would. Yes. But you wouldn't do it in You would do it in layers. So they're in You would do it in layers. So they're in You would do it in layers. So they're going to make it so that if you find going to make it so that if you find going to make it so that if you find one, you're going to have to work really one, you're going to have to work really one, you're going to have to work really hard. You have to get them drone by hard. You have to get them drone by hard. You have to get them drone by drone by drone or at least in clusters drone by drone or at least in clusters drone by drone or at least in clusters of them. of them. of them. >> I guess also an important point of >> I guess also an important point of >> I guess also an important point of context is they're also making new ones context is they're also making new ones context is they're also making new ones this whole time. this whole time. this whole time. >> Exactly. So our estimates that we have >> Exactly. So our estimates that we have >> Exactly. So our estimates that we have leaked from the Pentagon are in April.

leaked from the Pentagon are in April. leaked from the Pentagon are in April. That's months ago. That's months ago. That's months ago. these drones, they're they were making u these drones, they're they were making u these drones, they're they were making u 55,000 a year and giving them to Russia. 55,000 a year and giving them to Russia. 55,000 a year and giving them to Russia. So just think about that. That's So just think about that. That's So just think about that. That's thousands every single month. Why thousands every single month. Why thousands every single month. Why haven't they made uh another 5 or 10,000 haven't they made uh another 5 or 10,000 haven't they made uh another 5 or 10,000 drones since April? If you want this to drones since April? If you want this to drones since April? If you want this to open, so let me just straight for open, so let me just straight for open, so let me just straight for >> the straight of form. So now let me just >> the straight of form. So now let me just >> the straight of form. So now let me just explain. So this is our problem. If you explain. So this is our problem. If you explain. So this is our problem. If you want the straight of Formoose to open, want the straight of Formoose to open, want the straight of Formoose to open, it's not good enough to say, "Oh, look. it's not good enough to say, "Oh, look. it's not good enough to say, "Oh, look. I' I've found like dozens or hundreds of I' I've found like dozens or hundreds of I' I've found like dozens or hundreds of these drones." You've got to persuade these drones." You've got to persuade these drones." You've got to persuade the shipping companies that their ships the shipping companies that their ships the shipping companies that their ships are safe. are safe. are safe. They don't obey orders from the They don't obey orders from the They don't obey orders from the Pentagon. You can't order the shippers Pentagon. You can't order the shippers Pentagon. You can't order the shippers to go through to go through to go through >> because the ships are expensive. >> because the ships are expensive. >> because the ships are expensive. >> The ships are expensive and the crews >> The ships are expensive and the crews >> The ships are expensive and the crews don't want to Oh, in the many millions. don't want to Oh, in the many millions. don't want to Oh, in the many millions. millions and millions of dollars. I millions and millions of dollars. I millions and millions of dollars. I don't know the exact amount of these uh don't know the exact amount of these uh don't know the exact amount of these uh tankers, but each tanker will carry tankers, but each tanker will carry tankers, but each tanker will carry between 700,000 and over a million between 700,000 and over a million between 700,000 and over a million barrels of oil. And so they have quite a barrels of oil. And so they have quite a barrels of oil. And so they have quite a the just and you can do the math right the just and you can do the math right the just and you can do the math right there to see how much each ship is worth there to see how much each ship is worth there to see how much each ship is worth carrying that much uh uh that much oil.

carrying that much uh uh that much oil. carrying that much uh uh that much oil. >> I was looking at the cost here. It says >> I was looking at the cost here. It says >> I was looking at the cost here. It says when you combine a brand new vessel with when you combine a brand new vessel with when you combine a brand new vessel with a full tank of oil, a sh single tank a full tank of oil, a sh single tank a full tank of oil, a sh single tank crossing the straight of Hermuz is a crossing the straight of Hermuz is a crossing the straight of Hermuz is a floating asset worth 300 million. floating asset worth 300 million. floating asset worth 300 million. >> Oh wow. See, I didn't learn I learned >> Oh wow. See, I didn't learn I learned >> Oh wow. See, I didn't learn I learned something from you every time. Um, and something from you every time. Um, and something from you every time. Um, and >> that's not even the lives on board, >> that's not even the lives on board, >> that's not even the lives on board, which again are going to cause an which again are going to cause an which again are going to cause an insurance problem, but also no one wants insurance problem, but also no one wants insurance problem, but also no one wants to people to die. to people to die. to people to die. >> Well, and they don't want to die. So, >> Well, and they don't want to die. So, >> Well, and they don't want to die. So, you're going to have mutants. They're you're going to have mutants. They're you're going to have mutants. They're not going to. So, this is why you're not going to. So, this is why you're not going to. So, this is why you're seeing more ships leaving than you're seeing more ships leaving than you're seeing more ships leaving than you're seeing ships come in. And the ships that seeing ships come in. And the ships that seeing ships come in. And the ships that are coming in are very heavily coming to are coming in are very heavily coming to are coming in are very heavily coming to Iran's ports. That's one of the reasons Iran's ports. That's one of the reasons Iran's ports. That's one of the reasons President Trump put the blockade back President Trump put the blockade back President Trump put the blockade back on. It's because what happened here is on. It's because what happened here is on. It's because what happened here is theou this whole idea is not opening up theou this whole idea is not opening up theou this whole idea is not opening up the straight of hormuz it's not the straight of hormuz it's not the straight of hormuz it's not preventing what's going to come in the preventing what's going to come in the preventing what's going to come in the next few weeks maybe month which is the next few weeks maybe month which is the next few weeks maybe month which is the world economic crisis we are knocking on world economic crisis we are knocking on world economic crisis we are knocking on the door of what President Trump told us the door of what President Trump told us the door of what President Trump told us he was trying to avoid which is the he was trying to avoid which is the he was trying to avoid which is the world literally running out of oil and world literally running out of oil and world literally running out of oil and just today before we started the just today before we started the just today before we started the Houthies which big ally of Iran. So just Houthies which big ally of Iran. So just Houthies which big ally of Iran. So just to come back here and and reshow the to come back here and and reshow the to come back here and and reshow the map, uh remember I said that once uh the map, uh remember I said that once uh the map, uh remember I said that once uh the straight of Hormuz became shut down, straight of Hormuz became shut down, straight of Hormuz became shut down, there was 2 million of barrels coming there was 2 million of barrels coming there was 2 million of barrels coming out every day through um for the UAE out every day through um for the UAE out every day through um for the UAE coming out through Fyra and then four to coming out through Fyra and then four to coming out through Fyra and then four to 5 million uh coming out from Saudi 5 million uh coming out from Saudi 5 million uh coming out from Saudi Arabian oil going out to the Red Sea. Uh

Arabian oil going out to the Red Sea. Uh Arabian oil going out to the Red Sea. Uh and this is the the port there at the and this is the the port there at the and this is the the port there at the Red Sea. Well, the Houthies have just Red Sea. Well, the Houthies have just Red Sea. Well, the Houthies have just shut this down literally today. shut this down literally today. shut this down literally today. >> Oh, really? >> Oh, really? >> Oh, really? >> Literally before we came on. Uh, it >> Literally before we came on. Uh, it >> Literally before we came on. Uh, it happened about 6 hours ago. This has happened about 6 hours ago. This has happened about 6 hours ago. This has been escalating for several weeks. been escalating for several weeks. been escalating for several weeks. Iran's been asking for this. This is Iran's been asking for this. This is Iran's been asking for this. This is part of the general escalation that part of the general escalation that part of the general escalation that we're seeing. we're seeing. we're seeing. >> Okay. So, we've got the Straight of >> Okay. So, we've got the Straight of >> Okay. So, we've got the Straight of Hermoose closed. We've got the Houthies Hermoose closed. We've got the Houthies Hermoose closed. We've got the Houthies closing closing closing >> the Red Sea, >> the Red Sea, >> the Red Sea, >> the Red Sea. So, there's no oil flowing >> the Red Sea. So, there's no oil flowing >> the Red Sea. So, there's no oil flowing through there. Yeah. through there. Yeah. through there. Yeah. >> So, are we on the verge of an economic >> So, are we on the verge of an economic >> So, are we on the verge of an economic crisis if things don't change quickly? crisis if things don't change quickly? crisis if things don't change quickly? >> Yes. Yes. This is a this is literally >> Yes. Yes. This is a this is literally >> Yes. Yes. This is a this is literally the nightmare scenario that we've been the nightmare scenario that we've been the nightmare scenario that we've been worrying about. And the reason is is worrying about. And the reason is is worrying about. And the reason is is this. Go back and let's let's think this. Go back and let's let's think this. Go back and let's let's think about this from the 20 million barrels about this from the 20 million barrels about this from the 20 million barrels of oil that was going through the of oil that was going through the of oil that was going through the straight of Hormuz. So when Iran gained straight of Hormuz. So when Iran gained straight of Hormuz. So when Iran gained control of the straight of Hormuz, what control of the straight of Hormuz, what control of the straight of Hormuz, what happened immediately is the uh Saudi happened immediately is the uh Saudi happened immediately is the uh Saudi Arabia and the UEE started to bypass Arabia and the UEE started to bypass Arabia and the UEE started to bypass Hormuz with 7 million barrels a day. So Hormuz with 7 million barrels a day. So Hormuz with 7 million barrels a day. So that means only 13 million at issue, that means only 13 million at issue, that means only 13 million at issue, right? That's a little that's helpful.

right? That's a little that's helpful. right? That's a little that's helpful. The next is the strategic petroleum The next is the strategic petroleum The next is the strategic petroleum reserve, the United States. And we reserve, the United States. And we reserve, the United States. And we started to release about five or 6 started to release about five or 6 started to release about five or 6 million barrels a week through the million barrels a week through the million barrels a week through the through the strategic oil through the strategic oil through the strategic oil >> when uh we started to do this. It's >> when uh we started to do this. It's >> when uh we started to do this. It's right around the middle of March. I right around the middle of March. I right around the middle of March. I can't remember the exact date, but can't remember the exact date, but can't remember the exact date, but notice that you put a big dent in that. notice that you put a big dent in that. notice that you put a big dent in that. And so that's one of the reasons the oil And so that's one of the reasons the oil And so that's one of the reasons the oil markets did not go crazy right away. markets did not go crazy right away. markets did not go crazy right away. >> So I've got some data here then. says, >> So I've got some data here then. says, >> So I've got some data here then. says, um, President Trump authorized the um, President Trump authorized the um, President Trump authorized the emergency release of 172 million barrels emergency release of 172 million barrels emergency release of 172 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserve of oil from the strategic reserve of oil from the strategic reserve designed to be pumped out over roughly designed to be pumped out over roughly designed to be pumped out over roughly 120 days. This wasn't just a US issue or 120 days. This wasn't just a US issue or 120 days. This wasn't just a US issue or the US acting alone. The US draw down the US acting alone. The US draw down the US acting alone. The US draw down was part of a massive coordinated effort was part of a massive coordinated effort was part of a massive coordinated effort by 32 member nations of the by 32 member nations of the by 32 member nations of the International Energy Agency who International Energy Agency who International Energy Agency who collectively agreed to release 400 collectively agreed to release 400 collectively agreed to release 400 million barrels from their emergency million barrels from their emergency million barrels from their emergency stock piles. Because these massive stock piles. Because these massive stock piles. Because these massive releases um were done to offset the releases um were done to offset the releases um were done to offset the Hormuz blockade, the US strategic Hormuz blockade, the US strategic Hormuz blockade, the US strategic reserve has been heavily depleted. And reserve has been heavily depleted. And reserve has been heavily depleted. And as of July 2026, the reserve has dropped as of July 2026, the reserve has dropped as of July 2026, the reserve has dropped down to roughly 300 million barrels, down to roughly 300 million barrels, down to roughly 300 million barrels, which marks the lowest level the reserve which marks the lowest level the reserve which marks the lowest level the reserve has since 1983, has since 1983, has since 1983, a more than 40year low. They're being a more than 40year low. They're being a more than 40year low. They're being depleted. Once you spend your reserve, depleted. Once you spend your reserve, depleted. Once you spend your reserve, you don't get it refilled. And that's you don't get it refilled. And that's you don't get it refilled. And that's what I think President Trump was talking what I think President Trump was talking what I think President Trump was talking about when he said we're about to run about when he said we're about to run about when he said we're about to run out of oil in four weeks. That was out of oil in four weeks. That was out of oil in four weeks. That was exactly the date because we've just run

exactly the date because we've just run exactly the date because we've just run to the date of uh that that quote. What to the date of uh that that quote. What to the date of uh that that quote. What you just read is we're coming to about you just read is we're coming to about you just read is we're coming to about the 120th day. And so what that means is the 120th day. And so what that means is the 120th day. And so what that means is all of that cushion that we had in the all of that cushion that we had in the all of that cushion that we had in the system to protect the ga the price of system to protect the ga the price of system to protect the ga the price of gas already went up. Now you have even gas already went up. Now you have even gas already went up. Now you have even more risk. And then on top of that, more risk. And then on top of that, more risk. And then on top of that, Stephen, we have another set of problems Stephen, we have another set of problems Stephen, we have another set of problems besides the oil itself, which is besides the oil itself, which is besides the oil itself, which is refining capacity in the world. So we we refining capacity in the world. So we we refining capacity in the world. So we we don't uh put crude oil in our cars. We don't uh put crude oil in our cars. We don't uh put crude oil in our cars. We put gasoline in our cars. Diesel as put gasoline in our cars. Diesel as put gasoline in our cars. Diesel as well. Well, how do you get the gas and well. Well, how do you get the gas and well. Well, how do you get the gas and the diesel? You refine the crude. So the diesel? You refine the crude. So the diesel? You refine the crude. So that means the refineries need to work. that means the refineries need to work. that means the refineries need to work. Well, where are much of the world's Well, where are much of the world's Well, where are much of the world's refineries? in the Persian Gulf. Not refineries? in the Persian Gulf. Not refineries? in the Persian Gulf. Not just oil comes through the Persian Gulf, just oil comes through the Persian Gulf, just oil comes through the Persian Gulf, refined product, they're called refined product, they're called refined product, they're called distillates, they come through the distillates, they come through the distillates, they come through the Persian Gulf as well. Now, so that means Persian Gulf as well. Now, so that means Persian Gulf as well. Now, so that means you've shut down something like uh 25% you've shut down something like uh 25% you've shut down something like uh 25% or a third of the world's refining or a third of the world's refining or a third of the world's refining capacity.

capacity. capacity. Now, let's marry this to what's Now, let's marry this to what's Now, let's marry this to what's happening with Russia and Ukraine's happening with Russia and Ukraine's happening with Russia and Ukraine's blasting Russia refineries in Russia. So blasting Russia refineries in Russia. So blasting Russia refineries in Russia. So what's happening Stephen is you are what's happening Stephen is you are what's happening Stephen is you are getting not just the decline of crude getting not just the decline of crude getting not just the decline of crude itself is about to run out but the itself is about to run out but the itself is about to run out but the refining capacity now has been heavily refining capacity now has been heavily refining capacity now has been heavily uh uh strained and and limited. Uh it uh uh strained and and limited. Uh it uh uh strained and and limited. Uh it might be down you know 40%. I don't know might be down you know 40%. I don't know might be down you know 40%. I don't know the exact number but it's something on the exact number but it's something on the exact number but it's something on that order. And what you're seeing then that order. And what you're seeing then that order. And what you're seeing then is what I think President Trump was is what I think President Trump was is what I think President Trump was seeing a month ago, which is he wanted seeing a month ago, which is he wanted seeing a month ago, which is he wanted the straight of form moves to open, but the straight of form moves to open, but the straight of form moves to open, but he also didn't want to own the L. And he also didn't want to own the L. And he also didn't want to own the L. And what President Trump has decided is what President Trump has decided is what President Trump has decided is he'd rather take the risk with the he'd rather take the risk with the he'd rather take the risk with the world's economy than own the L, own the world's economy than own the L, own the world's economy than own the L, own the loss, loss, loss, and maybe he'll change his mind, and maybe he'll change his mind, and maybe he'll change his mind, >> which means he'd rather take the risk >> which means he'd rather take the risk >> which means he'd rather take the risk with the world's economy than just own with the world's economy than just own with the world's economy than just own the L. So what would owning the L in the L. So what would owning the L in the L. So what would owning the L in this scenario? opponent the L would this scenario? opponent the L would this scenario? opponent the L would allow Iran to follow through with allow Iran to follow through with allow Iran to follow through with article 5. So if we go back to article 5 article 5. So if we go back to article 5 article 5. So if we go back to article 5 >> to control to control the straight >> to control to control the straight >> to control to control the straight >> to control the strait on its terms >> to control the strait on its terms >> to control the strait on its terms >> but they that would be set preceded for >> but they that would be set preceded for >> but they that would be set preceded for all of these straits.

all of these straits. all of these straits. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Around the world that >> Around the world that >> Around the world that >> that's exactly right and you can't have >> that's exactly right and you can't have >> that's exactly right and you can't have that. that. that. >> Well these are the choices we have >> Well these are the choices we have >> Well these are the choices we have Stephen. So, so the choice is do we have Stephen. So, so the choice is do we have Stephen. So, so the choice is do we have um uh a global economic crisis, possibly um uh a global economic crisis, possibly um uh a global economic crisis, possibly recession, possibly worse, or do we let recession, possibly worse, or do we let recession, possibly worse, or do we let Iran control the straight of foremost? Iran control the straight of foremost? Iran control the straight of foremost? >> This is not a good place to be. >> This is not a good place to be. >> This is not a good place to be. >> Well, that's the fork in the road that I >> Well, that's the fork in the road that I >> Well, that's the fork in the road that I was telling you was the stage three was telling you was the stage three was telling you was the stage three dilemma. So, that's exactly where we dilemma. So, that's exactly where we dilemma. So, that's exactly where we were in Mar. So, so Stephen, just to were in Mar. So, so Stephen, just to were in Mar. So, so Stephen, just to explain to your audience because they explain to your audience because they explain to your audience because they were trying to figure out how are we were trying to figure out how are we were trying to figure out how are we getting here? This is what the 20 years getting here? This is what the 20 years getting here? This is what the 20 years of modeling was really showing. we would of modeling was really showing. we would of modeling was really showing. we would very quickly get to this fork in the very quickly get to this fork in the very quickly get to this fork in the road. It wouldn't take months and road. It wouldn't take months and road. It wouldn't take months and months. It would happen right away. And months. It would happen right away. And months. It would happen right away. And President Trump has been trying to avoid President Trump has been trying to avoid President Trump has been trying to avoid the escalation trap. This is called an the escalation trap. This is called an the escalation trap. This is called an escalation trap. And he's been trying to escalation trap. And he's been trying to escalation trap. And he's been trying to avoid that trap. He tried to avoid it avoid that trap. He tried to avoid it avoid that trap. He tried to avoid it with bombing for 6 weeks. He tried to with bombing for 6 weeks. He tried to with bombing for 6 weeks. He tried to avoid it with the blockade. He tried avoid it with the blockade. He tried avoid it with the blockade. He tried signing theou. He let JD Vance offer signing theou. He let JD Vance offer signing theou. He let JD Vance offer money. And that that none of those were money. And that that none of those were money. And that that none of those were were actually working. And what he where were actually working. And what he where were actually working. And what he where he is now is still at this fork in the he is now is still at this fork in the he is now is still at this fork in the road. The dilemma of the escalation road. The dilemma of the escalation road. The dilemma of the escalation trap. Either he owns the loss which it trap. Either he owns the loss which it trap. Either he owns the loss which it means everything you just said and means everything you just said and means everything you just said and becomes known as the president who becomes known as the president who becomes known as the president who allowed not just the straight of form allowed not just the straight of form allowed not just the straight of form moves to be uh be controlled but set a moves to be uh be controlled but set a moves to be uh be controlled but set a precedent for other countries and other precedent for other countries and other precedent for other countries and other non-state actors to control their their non-state actors to control their their non-state actors to control their their choke points. or we have the um we take

choke points. or we have the um we take choke points. or we have the um we take it back physically. Are we going to it back physically. Are we going to it back physically. Are we going to physically take it back? physically take it back? physically take it back? >> So, we'll go through the stages in the >> So, we'll go through the stages in the >> So, we'll go through the stages in the escalation trap at straight away after escalation trap at straight away after escalation trap at straight away after this after we move on from this point this after we move on from this point this after we move on from this point around oil because I think some of my around oil because I think some of my around oil because I think some of my audience might not know that this audience might not know that this audience might not know that this escalation trap is historically escalation trap is historically escalation trap is historically predictable and that you've been talking predictable and that you've been talking predictable and that you've been talking about this for a long time and it also about this for a long time and it also about this for a long time and it also allows us to understand exactly what allows us to understand exactly what allows us to understand exactly what happens next. Um I was quite shocked happens next. Um I was quite shocked happens next. Um I was quite shocked when you just said that Trump said when you just said that Trump said when you just said that Trump said recently that the US would run out of recently that the US would run out of recently that the US would run out of oil within 4 weeks. So, I did I just oil within 4 weeks. So, I did I just oil within 4 weeks. So, I did I just looked down at some research here and it looked down at some research here and it looked down at some research here and it says that during a recent press says that during a recent press says that during a recent press conference at the G7 summit in June conference at the G7 summit in June conference at the G7 summit in June 2026, President Trump made a blunt 2026, President Trump made a blunt 2026, President Trump made a blunt admission about how dangerously low admission about how dangerously low admission about how dangerously low global energy oil stock piles have global energy oil stock piles have global energy oil stock piles have become due to the ongoing crisis in the become due to the ongoing crisis in the become due to the ongoing crisis in the straight of Hammoose. His direct quote straight of Hammoose. His direct quote straight of Hammoose. His direct quote was, "We run out of reserves at about 4 was, "We run out of reserves at about 4 was, "We run out of reserves at about 4 weeks." You know, there are reserves all weeks." You know, there are reserves all weeks." You know, there are reserves all over the world and we would run really, over the world and we would run really, over the world and we would run really, really low. we would run out and really low. we would run out and really low. we would run out and there'll be a time when you wouldn't be there'll be a time when you wouldn't be there'll be a time when you wouldn't be able to get it. It would be bedum. able to get it. It would be bedum. able to get it. It would be bedum. >> Yes.

>> Yes. >> Yes. >> Why is he saying that? Isn't that >> Why is he saying that? Isn't that >> Why is he saying that? Isn't that because because because >> doesn't that make him look bad? >> doesn't that make him look bad? >> doesn't that make him look bad? >> It it makes him he's being I think >> It it makes him he's being I think >> It it makes him he's being I think forthright in why he signed theou which forthright in why he signed theou which forthright in why he signed theou which is to avoid that bedum the world is to avoid that bedum the world is to avoid that bedum the world economic crisis. However, economic crisis. However, economic crisis. However, the problem for President Trump is in the problem for President Trump is in the problem for President Trump is in order to avoid the bedum, he has to let order to avoid the bedum, he has to let order to avoid the bedum, he has to let Iran control the straight of H formuz, Iran control the straight of H formuz, Iran control the straight of H formuz, establish that sphere of influence I was establish that sphere of influence I was establish that sphere of influence I was explaining and he almost immediately explaining and he almost immediately explaining and he almost immediately after he said that statement within 48 after he said that statement within 48 after he said that statement within 48 hours undermined thatou that would have hours undermined thatou that would have hours undermined thatou that would have avoided that. Had theou just been uh avoided that. Had theou just been uh avoided that. Had theou just been uh implemented as written, we may not be implemented as written, we may not be implemented as written, we may not be sitting here today talking about the sitting here today talking about the sitting here today talking about the impending world crisis. And I believe impending world crisis. And I believe impending world crisis. And I believe one of the reasons we're knocking on the one of the reasons we're knocking on the one of the reasons we're knocking on the door of more escalation right now is door of more escalation right now is door of more escalation right now is because President Trump is desperate to because President Trump is desperate to because President Trump is desperate to open the straight of foremost. I think open the straight of foremost. I think open the straight of foremost. I think he's taking low risk uh high risk he's taking low risk uh high risk he's taking low risk uh high risk military option mil. I think he's military option mil. I think he's military option mil. I think he's pursuing military options he likely pursuing military options he likely pursuing military options he likely knows are unlikely to work, but they're knows are unlikely to work, but they're knows are unlikely to work, but they're his best chance to open hormuz before his best chance to open hormuz before his best chance to open hormuz before the crisis literally hits.

the crisis literally hits. the crisis literally hits. >> But there's also another before, which >> But there's also another before, which >> But there's also another before, which is the midterm elections. is the midterm elections. is the midterm elections. >> Yes. Am I right in thinking that this >> Yes. Am I right in thinking that this >> Yes. Am I right in thinking that this midterm election takes place in 3 months midterm election takes place in 3 months midterm election takes place in 3 months time and if his approval rating is low time and if his approval rating is low time and if his approval rating is low at that point because of what's going on at that point because of what's going on at that point because of what's going on with the war because when Americans go with the war because when Americans go with the war because when Americans go to the pump to fill up their cars they to the pump to fill up their cars they to the pump to fill up their cars they notice the prices are way high higher notice the prices are way high higher notice the prices are way high higher than usual that means those Americans in than usual that means those Americans in than usual that means those Americans in the election in the midterm elections the election in the midterm elections the election in the midterm elections will vote for the Democrats which means will vote for the Democrats which means will vote for the Democrats which means he will lose the Congress. So he he will lose the Congress. So he he will lose the Congress. So he basically needs to make sure Americans basically needs to make sure Americans basically needs to make sure Americans are happy in three months time. He he are happy in three months time. He he are happy in three months time. He he needs to take the best chance he can can needs to take the best chance he can can needs to take the best chance he can can to make that happen. Okay. And I think to make that happen. Okay. And I think to make that happen. Okay. And I think that what happened here, Stephen, is he that what happened here, Stephen, is he that what happened here, Stephen, is he his quote, you just quoted him, I think his quote, you just quoted him, I think his quote, you just quoted him, I think it was June 17th. it was June 17th. it was June 17th. >> He's saying that within a month those >> He's saying that within a month those >> He's saying that within a month those reserves are going to run out and we're reserves are going to run out and we're reserves are going to run out and we're heading to that bedum that economic heading to that bedum that economic heading to that bedum that economic crisis and that is already happening. crisis and that is already happening. crisis and that is already happening. His s four weeks later, we're right on His s four weeks later, we're right on His s four weeks later, we're right on that trajectory. That trajectory has not that trajectory. That trajectory has not that trajectory. That trajectory has not changed. Maybe we've bought an extra changed. Maybe we've bought an extra changed. Maybe we've bought an extra week or two of time because some oil did week or two of time because some oil did week or two of time because some oil did get out from the from the Persian Gulf.

get out from the from the Persian Gulf. get out from the from the Persian Gulf. Not that much, but enough for a few Not that much, but enough for a few Not that much, but enough for a few weeks here. So maybe it's it's going to weeks here. So maybe it's it's going to weeks here. So maybe it's it's going to now not fall on August 1st. Maybe it'll now not fall on August 1st. Maybe it'll now not fall on August 1st. Maybe it'll be August say 15th or 17th. But it will be August say 15th or 17th. But it will be August say 15th or 17th. But it will hit. It's And that's what he was. And hit. It's And that's what he was. And hit. It's And that's what he was. And now I think he's he sees when it hits now I think he's he sees when it hits now I think he's he sees when it hits he's going to lose uh there's a good he's going to lose uh there's a good he's going to lose uh there's a good chance that the Republicans will lose chance that the Republicans will lose chance that the Republicans will lose more seats in the House and in the more seats in the House and in the more seats in the House and in the Senate. That will make him the lamest of Senate. That will make him the lamest of Senate. That will make him the lamest of lame ducks for his last two years. Uh it lame ducks for his last two years. Uh it lame ducks for his last two years. Uh it may not be that he would be removed from may not be that he would be removed from may not be that he would be removed from office. That's probably not going to office. That's probably not going to office. That's probably not going to happen. But it could be that he will be happen. But it could be that he will be happen. But it could be that he will be impeached again. He will be tied in impeached again. He will be tied in impeached again. He will be tied in knots by the uh by the Democratic knots by the uh by the Democratic knots by the uh by the Democratic controlled House or Democratic controlled House or Democratic controlled House or Democratic controlled House and Senate. And um this controlled House and Senate. And um this controlled House and Senate. And um this is what he's trying to offset. And but is what he's trying to offset. And but is what he's trying to offset. And but he knows something that most of us I he knows something that most of us I he knows something that most of us I think um are not really taking seriously think um are not really taking seriously think um are not really taking seriously uh which is that the world is like we're uh which is that the world is like we're uh which is that the world is like we're like on the Titanic and we're about to like on the Titanic and we're about to like on the Titanic and we're about to hit the iceberg. And maybe that iceberg hit the iceberg. And maybe that iceberg hit the iceberg. And maybe that iceberg moved a little bit further away but moved a little bit further away but moved a little bit further away but we're still right on the trajectory to we're still right on the trajectory to we're still right on the trajectory to hit that iceberg. And it's coming and hit that iceberg. And it's coming and hit that iceberg. And it's coming and when the iceberg hits there's not enough when the iceberg hits there's not enough when the iceberg hits there's not enough lifeboats for everybody. And who's going lifeboats for everybody. And who's going lifeboats for everybody. And who's going to be short of lifeboats? The to be short of lifeboats? The to be short of lifeboats? The Republicans. And that's what I think why Republicans. And that's what I think why Republicans. And that's what I think why I think people made the mistake when I think people made the mistake when I think people made the mistake when they said, "Well, President Trump they said, "Well, President Trump they said, "Well, President Trump couldn't possibly escalate before the couldn't possibly escalate before the couldn't possibly escalate before the midterms." Couldn't possibly for weeks, midterms." Couldn't possibly for weeks, midterms." Couldn't possibly for weeks, Stephen. I've been on shows talking Stephen. I've been on shows talking Stephen. I've been on shows talking about, you know, why President Trump about, you know, why President Trump about, you know, why President Trump will escalate maybe after the midterms, will escalate maybe after the midterms, will escalate maybe after the midterms, maybe next year, but he certainly and I maybe next year, but he certainly and I maybe next year, but he certainly and I kept trying to explain this is not

kept trying to explain this is not kept trying to explain this is not that's probably not right. And that's that's probably not right. And that's that's probably not right. And that's what you're seeing now. You're seeing what you're seeing now. You're seeing what you're seeing now. You're seeing that that President Trump is desperate that that President Trump is desperate that that President Trump is desperate to try to open the straight of Formos. to try to open the straight of Formos. to try to open the straight of Formos. He's he I think is being told probably He's he I think is being told probably He's he I think is being told probably directly from his military these options directly from his military these options directly from his military these options are very low uh risk. They're very high are very low uh risk. They're very high are very low uh risk. They're very high risk. They're very unlikely to succeed. risk. They're very unlikely to succeed. risk. They're very unlikely to succeed. But now that the Titanic is going to hit But now that the Titanic is going to hit But now that the Titanic is going to hit the iceberg, his only other choice is to the iceberg, his only other choice is to the iceberg, his only other choice is to completely walk back and say, "You're completely walk back and say, "You're completely walk back and say, "You're right, Oron. You control her moves. You right, Oron. You control her moves. You right, Oron. You control her moves. You set the fees. You don't have to make any set the fees. You don't have to make any set the fees. You don't have to make any limits on your nuclear program. You are limits on your nuclear program. You are limits on your nuclear program. You are the fourth center of world power. And I, the fourth center of world power. And I, the fourth center of world power. And I, Donald Trump, it happened under my Donald Trump, it happened under my Donald Trump, it happened under my watch. That's a big L to wear on your watch. That's a big L to wear on your watch. That's a big L to wear on your chest, Stephen. And that would be true, chest, Stephen. And that would be true, chest, Stephen. And that would be true, I think, for any president. This is what I think, for any president. This is what I think, for any president. This is what Lynden Johnson faced in Vietnam. Uh, we Lynden Johnson faced in Vietnam. Uh, we Lynden Johnson faced in Vietnam. Uh, we now have the tapes that Johnson was now have the tapes that Johnson was now have the tapes that Johnson was making in the White House in making in the White House in making in the White House in conversations. It wasn't just Nixon conversations. It wasn't just Nixon conversations. It wasn't just Nixon making tapes here. Johnson uh was making making tapes here. Johnson uh was making making tapes here. Johnson uh was making tapes. And we now have tapes of Johnson tapes. And we now have tapes of Johnson tapes. And we now have tapes of Johnson as he's making decisions to escalate the as he's making decisions to escalate the as he's making decisions to escalate the Vietnam War, explaining that he knows Vietnam War, explaining that he knows Vietnam War, explaining that he knows this is very unlikely to end the war.

this is very unlikely to end the war. this is very unlikely to end the war. It's likely to make it worse. And why is It's likely to make it worse. And why is It's likely to make it worse. And why is he doing it? He's doing it because he's he doing it? He's doing it because he's he doing it? He's doing it because he's trying to uh hold on to his uh Great trying to uh hold on to his uh Great trying to uh hold on to his uh Great Society program just for another four or Society program just for another four or Society program just for another four or five months. And what he's hoping is five months. And what he's hoping is five months. And what he's hoping is that even though the escalation is that even though the escalation is that even though the escalation is likely not to work, there's some tiny likely not to work, there's some tiny likely not to work, there's some tiny chance it will. And in four or five chance it will. And in four or five chance it will. And in four or five months, he'll be able to pull a rabbit months, he'll be able to pull a rabbit months, he'll be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat. He became uh it failed out of the hat. He became uh it failed out of the hat. He became uh it failed domestically. Lyndon Johnson had to uh domestically. Lyndon Johnson had to uh domestically. Lyndon Johnson had to uh pull back from running for reelection pull back from running for reelection pull back from running for reelection because of the escalations in the because of the escalations in the because of the escalations in the Vietnam War. And President Trump is Vietnam War. And President Trump is Vietnam War. And President Trump is running the same risk that even though I running the same risk that even though I running the same risk that even though I believe that he's doing this because believe that he's doing this because believe that he's doing this because he's trying to give him him himself and he's trying to give him him himself and he's trying to give him him himself and the Republicans the best chance to win the Republicans the best chance to win the Republicans the best chance to win uh in November, uh it may not work. uh in November, uh it may not work. uh in November, uh it may not work. That's why I think President Trump That's why I think President Trump That's why I think President Trump already planted the seed of uh China already planted the seed of uh China already planted the seed of uh China meddling in the elections. he's already meddling in the elections. he's already meddling in the elections. he's already started the conversation uh that um uh started the conversation uh that um uh started the conversation uh that um uh that there's another possible stone that there's another possible stone that there's another possible stone election in our future. This time election in our future. This time election in our future. This time possibly uh by foreign country, possibly possibly uh by foreign country, possibly possibly uh by foreign country, possibly China.

China. China. >> One of the things you've heard me talk >> One of the things you've heard me talk >> One of the things you've heard me talk about quite a lot over the last couple about quite a lot over the last couple about quite a lot over the last couple of years, and this is something that's of years, and this is something that's of years, and this is something that's true in business and content, but also true in business and content, but also true in business and content, but also with everything in life, is that with everything in life, is that with everything in life, is that consistency is the thing that really, consistency is the thing that really, consistency is the thing that really, really compounds. The same is true in really compounds. The same is true in really compounds. The same is true in sales. When your team is small, sales. When your team is small, sales. When your team is small, consistency happens naturally. The team consistency happens naturally. The team consistency happens naturally. The team knows of every deal, so nothing gets knows of every deal, so nothing gets knows of every deal, so nothing gets missed. But as I've experienced, when missed. But as I've experienced, when missed. But as I've experienced, when you grow, this starts to break down, and you grow, this starts to break down, and you grow, this starts to break down, and deals start to slip. Follow-ups don't deals start to slip. Follow-ups don't deals start to slip. Follow-ups don't happen. Leads go cold that shouldn't happen. Leads go cold that shouldn't happen. Leads go cold that shouldn't have. And when this happens, a lot of have. And when this happens, a lot of have. And when this happens, a lot of leaders look at it and think they have a leaders look at it and think they have a leaders look at it and think they have a people problem. When actually, it's a people problem. When actually, it's a people problem. When actually, it's a systems problem. The businesses that systems problem. The businesses that systems problem. The businesses that I've watched scale well commercially all I've watched scale well commercially all I've watched scale well commercially all have a system their team uses every have a system their team uses every have a system their team uses every single day. And for my team, that system single day. And for my team, that system single day. And for my team, that system has been our sponsor, Pipe Drive. It's has been our sponsor, Pipe Drive. It's has been our sponsor, Pipe Drive. It's an easytouse intelligent CRM tool for an easytouse intelligent CRM tool for an easytouse intelligent CRM tool for growing sales teams that gives you growing sales teams that gives you growing sales teams that gives you visibility of every deal in your sales visibility of every deal in your sales visibility of every deal in your sales pipeline at every single stage. And it pipeline at every single stage. And it pipeline at every single stage. And it shows you what needs to happen for that shows you what needs to happen for that shows you what needs to happen for that deal to move forward all in real time. deal to move forward all in real time. deal to move forward all in real time. It's what keeps our commercial operation It's what keeps our commercial operation It's what keeps our commercial operation consistent when we're a team of five or consistent when we're a team of five or consistent when we're a team of five or when our commercial team was a team of when our commercial team was a team of when our commercial team was a team of 50. Over 100,000 companies are already 50. Over 100,000 companies are already 50. Over 100,000 companies are already running their sales on it. So, if you'd running their sales on it. So, if you'd running their sales on it. So, if you'd like to join them, sign up at like to join them, sign up at like to join them, sign up at piperive.com/ce piperive.com/ce piperive.com/ce where you'll get an exclusive 30-day where you'll get an exclusive 30-day where you'll get an exclusive 30-day free trial instead of the usual 14 days.

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heyen.com/doac. heyen.com/doac. That's h een.com/doac. See you there. See you there. On this point of the escalation trap, On this point of the escalation trap, On this point of the escalation trap, um, it has several stages to it, the um, it has several stages to it, the um, it has several stages to it, the escalation trap, as far as I understand. escalation trap, as far as I understand. escalation trap, as far as I understand. >> Uh, yes, I think you have the picture. >> Uh, yes, I think you have the picture. >> Uh, yes, I think you have the picture. Do we have the picture? I have a I have Do we have the picture? I have a I have Do we have the picture? I have a I have the escalation ladder. the escalation ladder. the escalation ladder. >> Yeah. Yes. So, I made this I think it >> Yeah. Yes. So, I made this I think it >> Yeah. Yes. So, I made this I think it was uh something like March 2nd or March was uh something like March 2nd or March was uh something like March 2nd or March 3rd. 3rd. 3rd. >> Okay. So, for people that can't see the >> Okay. So, for people that can't see the >> Okay. So, for people that can't see the visual, we'll also explain what we're visual, we'll also explain what we're visual, we'll also explain what we're showing here, but we will put it on the showing here, but we will put it on the showing here, but we will put it on the screen for those that can see. screen for those that can see. screen for those that can see. >> Yeah. So, what I did um is I was um uh >> Yeah. So, what I did um is I was um uh >> Yeah. So, what I did um is I was um uh trying to find a way to um graphically trying to find a way to um graphically trying to find a way to um graphically show the escalation trap. And what this show the escalation trap. And what this show the escalation trap. And what this looks like for those who can't see is an looks like for those who can't see is an looks like for those who can't see is an upside down pyramid. So basically it upside down pyramid. So basically it upside down pyramid. So basically it starts small at the bottom and gets starts small at the bottom and gets starts small at the bottom and gets worse and worse and more and more red worse and worse and more and more red worse and worse and more and more red and more and more red as you get through and more and more red as you get through and more and more red as you get through more and more stages as you go to the more and more stages as you go to the more and more stages as you go to the top. In the beginning you start with top. In the beginning you start with top. In the beginning you start with limited strike. That's the bombing of limited strike. That's the bombing of limited strike. That's the bombing of leadership bomb. You kill the leader. leadership bomb. You kill the leader. leadership bomb. You kill the leader. You kill uh you you try to topple the You kill uh you you try to topple the You kill uh you you try to topple the regime with leadership to uh and that regime with leadership to uh and that regime with leadership to uh and that leads to retaliation. Stage two. Stage leads to retaliation. Stage two. Stage leads to retaliation. Stage two. Stage two retaliation is Iran takes hormones two retaliation is Iran takes hormones two retaliation is Iran takes hormones and that then leads to us doing some and that then leads to us doing some and that then leads to us doing some retaliation. I would still call it in retaliation. I would still call it in retaliation. I would still call it in stage two by the way. Um that's why I stage two by the way. Um that's why I stage two by the way. Um that's why I kind of kept it the same color where kind of kept it the same color where kind of kept it the same color where we're doing the uh six weeks bombing.

we're doing the uh six weeks bombing. we're doing the uh six weeks bombing. That's also where the blockade is. And That's also where the blockade is. And That's also where the blockade is. And notice then you get to this red stage notice then you get to this red stage notice then you get to this red stage here. Notice it's where economic crisis here. Notice it's where economic crisis here. Notice it's where economic crisis is. This is where stage three really is. This is where stage three really is. This is where stage three really starts. Okay. Now we were able to offset starts. Okay. Now we were able to offset starts. Okay. Now we were able to offset that economic crisis. So when we talked that economic crisis. So when we talked that economic crisis. So when we talked in March and April, it wasn't clear, in March and April, it wasn't clear, in March and April, it wasn't clear, especially China, they were still especially China, they were still especially China, they were still buying. So that economic crisis was a buying. So that economic crisis was a buying. So that economic crisis was a lot closer in um March and April than it lot closer in um March and April than it lot closer in um March and April than it became after the summit with Shei became after the summit with Shei became after the summit with Shei because she stopped buying 5 million because she stopped buying 5 million because she stopped buying 5 million barrels of oil a day. I want to barrels of oil a day. I want to barrels of oil a day. I want to underscore that. And what did she get underscore that. And what did she get underscore that. And what did she get for that? Uh President Trump last week for that? Uh President Trump last week for that? Uh President Trump last week just blamed him for uh meddling in our just blamed him for uh meddling in our just blamed him for uh meddling in our election. So I'm not sure she has election. So I'm not sure she has election. So I'm not sure she has thought that was a good deal. But still, thought that was a good deal. But still, thought that was a good deal. But still, we're at this point now, and this is we're at this point now, and this is we're at this point now, and this is where stage three is, or the choice is where stage three is, or the choice is where stage three is, or the choice is if you want to get off of the escalation if you want to get off of the escalation if you want to get off of the escalation trap, you then have to let Iran become trap, you then have to let Iran become trap, you then have to let Iran become uh the gain power, become the rising uh the gain power, become the rising uh the gain power, become the rising power in the region, the regional power in the region, the regional power in the region, the regional hegeimon, and essentially the fourth hegeimon, and essentially the fourth hegeimon, and essentially the fourth center of world power because once it um center of world power because once it um center of world power because once it um gains power u with Hormuz, has a sphere gains power u with Hormuz, has a sphere gains power u with Hormuz, has a sphere of influence, a year or two from now, of influence, a year or two from now, of influence, a year or two from now, Steven, they're very likely to have Steven, they're very likely to have Steven, they're very likely to have nuclear weapons. So this is this this is nuclear weapons. So this is this this is nuclear weapons. So this is this this is what it means to let Iran win. It's not what it means to let Iran win. It's not what it means to let Iran win. It's not Iran will win and be nice. Iran is going Iran will win and be nice. Iran is going Iran will win and be nice. Iran is going to become a very powerful state in the to become a very powerful state in the to become a very powerful state in the region. If we go further and this we region. If we go further and this we region. If we go further and this we actually uh do escalate and with the actually uh do escalate and with the actually uh do escalate and with the other map I'll explain what I think the other map I'll explain what I think the other map I'll explain what I think the real issues are going to be between now

real issues are going to be between now real issues are going to be between now and the midterms. and the midterms. and the midterms. Then we're going to head into 2027 into Then we're going to head into 2027 into Then we're going to head into 2027 into the deep red which is the actual forever the deep red which is the actual forever the deep red which is the actual forever war. So many people this week and next war. So many people this week and next war. So many people this week and next week they're going to I'm going to be on week they're going to I'm going to be on week they're going to I'm going to be on a lot of shows Stephen talking about are a lot of shows Stephen talking about are a lot of shows Stephen talking about are we in a forever war? Well, that's we in a forever war? Well, that's we in a forever war? Well, that's coming. Okay, possibly. But right now, coming. Okay, possibly. But right now, coming. Okay, possibly. But right now, we're coming into the stage three we're coming into the stage three we're coming into the stage three question, which is are we going to question, which is are we going to question, which is are we going to physically use force for the first time physically use force for the first time physically use force for the first time for real to seize back control of at for real to seize back control of at for real to seize back control of at least part of Hormuz and so forth? And least part of Hormuz and so forth? And least part of Hormuz and so forth? And that is the big question because if we that is the big question because if we that is the big question because if we do that and that's why I think the real do that and that's why I think the real do that and that's why I think the real issue on the table right now is uh can issue on the table right now is uh can issue on the table right now is uh can the United States physically open hormos the United States physically open hormos the United States physically open hormos between now and the midterms. I think between now and the midterms. I think between now and the midterms. I think that question, Stephen, is the most that question, Stephen, is the most that question, Stephen, is the most important question in the world, for the important question in the world, for the important question in the world, for the world, for the world's economy, for world, for the world's economy, for world, for the world's economy, for international terrorism against international terrorism against international terrorism against Americans, uh, for whether or not we Americans, uh, for whether or not we Americans, uh, for whether or not we truly will be in a forever war. This is truly will be in a forever war. This is truly will be in a forever war. This is going to be decided between now and the going to be decided between now and the going to be decided between now and the midterms. And the and the and the key midterms. And the and the and the key midterms. And the and the and the key issue is, can we physically open the issue is, can we physically open the issue is, can we physically open the straight of form moves between now and straight of form moves between now and straight of form moves between now and the midterms? And I think sadly the the midterms? And I think sadly the the midterms? And I think sadly the answer is almost surely not.

>> It's funny because you mentioned LBJ. So >> It's funny because you mentioned LBJ. So I was looking at some of his quotes I was looking at some of his quotes I was looking at some of his quotes around the time to see how they link around the time to see how they link around the time to see how they link because everybody knows the Vietnam War because everybody knows the Vietnam War because everybody knows the Vietnam War as being a war that just lasted forever as being a war that just lasted forever as being a war that just lasted forever and really achieved nothing. I mean and really achieved nothing. I mean and really achieved nothing. I mean that's generally the consensus that you that's generally the consensus that you that's generally the consensus that you read about. read about. read about. >> And LBJ said at the time, I know we >> And LBJ said at the time, I know we >> And LBJ said at the time, I know we ought not be there, but I can't get out. ought not be there, but I can't get out. ought not be there, but I can't get out. I just can't be the architect of I just can't be the architect of I just can't be the architect of surrender. And by this, he knew that the surrender. And by this, he knew that the surrender. And by this, he knew that the current strategy was a mistake, but he current strategy was a mistake, but he current strategy was a mistake, but he felt politically paralyzed because felt politically paralyzed because felt politically paralyzed because backing down would be like a humiliating backing down would be like a humiliating backing down would be like a humiliating defeat, which again links to Trump's defeat, which again links to Trump's defeat, which again links to Trump's situation. He also said, "Let's get situation. He also said, "Let's get situation. He also said, "Let's get somebody that wants to do something somebody that wants to do something somebody that wants to do something besides drop a bomb, but that can go in besides drop a bomb, but that can go in besides drop a bomb, but that can go in and take in after these damn fellas and and take in after these damn fellas and and take in after these damn fellas and run them back where they belong." And by run them back where they belong." And by run them back where they belong." And by that he meant relying entirely on that he meant relying entirely on that he meant relying entirely on overwhelming American air power wasn't overwhelming American air power wasn't overwhelming American air power wasn't actually solving the unconventional actually solving the unconventional actually solving the unconventional ground level problem which again links ground level problem which again links ground level problem which again links to Trump's situation as you've to Trump's situation as you've to Trump's situation as you've described. described. described. >> That's the transition from air power >> That's the transition from air power >> That's the transition from air power rolling thunder to the heavier use of rolling thunder to the heavier use of rolling thunder to the heavier use of ground forces and both of those of ground forces and both of those of ground forces and both of those of course ultimately fail.

course ultimately fail. course ultimately fail. >> He also said I don't this is again LBJ's >> He also said I don't this is again LBJ's >> He also said I don't this is again LBJ's comments as president during the Vietnam comments as president during the Vietnam comments as president during the Vietnam War. I don't think that we can fight War. I don't think that we can fight War. I don't think that we can fight them 10,000 mi away from home and get them 10,000 mi away from home and get them 10,000 mi away from home and get anywhere in that area. It's just the anywhere in that area. It's just the anywhere in that area. It's just the biggest damn mess that I ever saw. By biggest damn mess that I ever saw. By biggest damn mess that I ever saw. By this, he meant trying to project this, he meant trying to project this, he meant trying to project military power halfway across the globe military power halfway across the globe military power halfway across the globe against an enemy fighting in their own against an enemy fighting in their own against an enemy fighting in their own backyard is incredibly difficult and backyard is incredibly difficult and backyard is incredibly difficult and likely futile, which again links to the likely futile, which again links to the likely futile, which again links to the orange situation. And lastly, LBJ said, orange situation. And lastly, LBJ said, orange situation. And lastly, LBJ said, "A man can fight if he can see daylight "A man can fight if he can see daylight "A man can fight if he can see daylight down the road somewhere, but there ain't down the road somewhere, but there ain't down the road somewhere, but there ain't no daylight in Vietnam. There's not a no daylight in Vietnam. There's not a no daylight in Vietnam. There's not a single bit." And by this he meant that single bit." And by this he meant that single bit." And by this he meant that there was no realistic achievable end there was no realistic achievable end there was no realistic achievable end point or path to victory for its point or path to victory for its point or path to victory for its military strategy. And that also links military strategy. And that also links military strategy. And that also links to how like when political pressures to how like when political pressures to how like when political pressures change and you know Trump's recent change and you know Trump's recent change and you know Trump's recent admission at the G7 that the world is admission at the G7 that the world is admission at the G7 that the world is about to run out of um their energy about to run out of um their energy about to run out of um their energy reserves is a stark realization that the reserves is a stark realization that the reserves is a stark realization that the current strategy is hard. It has a current strategy is hard. It has a current strategy is hard. It has a deadline and there's no clear solution deadline and there's no clear solution deadline and there's no clear solution in sight. in sight. in sight. >> Yeah. It's so tragic. It's so tragic >> Yeah. It's so tragic. It's so tragic >> Yeah. It's so tragic. It's so tragic that we're essentially replaying the that we're essentially replaying the that we're essentially replaying the Vietnam War. Trump is replaying the Vietnam War. Trump is replaying the Vietnam War. Trump is replaying the decisions that Lyndon Johnson made and decisions that Lyndon Johnson made and decisions that Lyndon Johnson made and coming to very similar decisions, which coming to very similar decisions, which coming to very similar decisions, which is he believes as Lynden Johnson did is he believes as Lynden Johnson did is he believes as Lynden Johnson did that even though the military escalation that even though the military escalation that even though the military escalation would be a likely loser on the on the would be a likely loser on the on the would be a likely loser on the on the battlefield, that loss would take months battlefield, that loss would take months battlefield, that loss would take months and months to play out. So there was and months to play out. So there was and months to play out. So there was some chance he could pull a rabbit out some chance he could pull a rabbit out some chance he could pull a rabbit out of a hat. But if he accepted immediate

of a hat. But if he accepted immediate of a hat. But if he accepted immediate abrupt defeat, that would totally abrupt defeat, that would totally abrupt defeat, that would totally undermine and destroy his domestic undermine and destroy his domestic undermine and destroy his domestic political agenda. political agenda. political agenda. >> So, I've got I basically before you >> So, I've got I basically before you >> So, I've got I basically before you came, I looked at the top 20 questions came, I looked at the top 20 questions came, I looked at the top 20 questions that the internet currently wants to that the internet currently wants to that the internet currently wants to know about the Iran war. know about the Iran war. know about the Iran war. >> Oh, great. >> Oh, great. >> Oh, great. >> And we've knocked off a few of them >> And we've knocked off a few of them >> And we've knocked off a few of them already. already. already. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> We've got a couple of them left. >> We've got a couple of them left. >> We've got a couple of them left. >> Yeah, I love it. Um, one of them is can >> Yeah, I love it. Um, one of them is can >> Yeah, I love it. Um, one of them is can the United States actually force the the United States actually force the the United States actually force the straight of Hummus fully open with our straight of Hummus fully open with our straight of Hummus fully open with our current strategy or does Iran now hold current strategy or does Iran now hold current strategy or does Iran now hold lasting leverage over this critical lasting leverage over this critical lasting leverage over this critical choke point? choke point? choke point? >> The answer is um it the United States >> The answer is um it the United States >> The answer is um it the United States cannot do it and this would be an cannot do it and this would be an cannot do it and this would be an opportunity. Stephen, could I have that opportunity. Stephen, could I have that opportunity. Stephen, could I have that map back? map back? map back? >> Let me explain. Yeah, let me let me show >> Let me explain. Yeah, let me let me show >> Let me explain. Yeah, let me let me show you what I think is really in the offing you what I think is really in the offing you what I think is really in the offing here. here. here. >> So, a lot of people are wondering what >> So, a lot of people are wondering what >> So, a lot of people are wondering what are we going to do with 8,000 ground are we going to do with 8,000 ground are we going to do with 8,000 ground troops? So, we have somewhere around troops? So, we have somewhere around troops? So, we have somewhere around 4,500, 5,000 Marines, somewhere around 4,500, 5,000 Marines, somewhere around 4,500, 5,000 Marines, somewhere around 4,000 or so troops from the 82nd 4,000 or so troops from the 82nd 4,000 or so troops from the 82nd Airborne. What are these troops actually Airborne. What are these troops actually Airborne. What are these troops actually going to do? And I think that what going to do? And I think that what going to do? And I think that what President Trump is doing here, and I President Trump is doing here, and I President Trump is doing here, and I think you can really we can really see think you can really we can really see think you can really we can really see this if I kind of explain this is what this if I kind of explain this is what this if I kind of explain this is what we are doing is we are concentrating our we are doing is we are concentrating our we are doing is we are concentrating our forces, our naval forces here into the forces, our naval forces here into the forces, our naval forces here into the Gulf of Oman. We are not moving them Gulf of Oman. We are not moving them Gulf of Oman. We are not moving them through the straight of Formos where con through the straight of Formos where con through the straight of Formos where con our carriers are in the Gulf of Oman and our carriers are in the Gulf of Oman and our carriers are in the Gulf of Oman and also our marine expeditionary unit is in also our marine expeditionary unit is in also our marine expeditionary unit is in the Gulf of Oman. Now previously these the Gulf of Oman. Now previously these the Gulf of Oman. Now previously these had been further away had been further away had been further away the board in the Indian Ocean. We move

the board in the Indian Ocean. We move the board in the Indian Ocean. We move them here closer. And this is important them here closer. And this is important them here closer. And this is important because these guns are are guns that because these guns are are guns that because these guns are are guns that have range to be able to hit the shore have range to be able to hit the shore have range to be able to hit the shore within about 12 mi. So what are you within about 12 mi. So what are you within about 12 mi. So what are you doing with these ships? And what are you doing with these ships? And what are you doing with these ships? And what are you doing here is you are building a force doing here is you are building a force doing here is you are building a force that might be uh able to take a piece of that might be uh able to take a piece of that might be uh able to take a piece of territory at Charbahar or there's a um territory at Charbahar or there's a um territory at Charbahar or there's a um uh right in between Bandraas and uh right in between Bandraas and uh right in between Bandraas and Charbahar there is a little port town Charbahar there is a little port town Charbahar there is a little port town called Jasque and this would be exactly called Jasque and this would be exactly called Jasque and this would be exactly the kind of armada you would build in the kind of armada you would build in the kind of armada you would build in order to take one of those objectives. order to take one of those objectives. order to take one of those objectives. of either Charbahar or Jaskque. And the of either Charbahar or Jaskque. And the of either Charbahar or Jaskque. And the reason that you would do it politically reason that you would do it politically reason that you would do it politically for President Trump is because this for President Trump is because this for President Trump is because this could possibly be a symbolic victory. could possibly be a symbolic victory. could possibly be a symbolic victory. You could possibly take the territory You could possibly take the territory You could possibly take the territory and hold it for weeks. Now, why would and hold it for weeks. Now, why would and hold it for weeks. Now, why would you be able to take the territory and you be able to take the territory and you be able to take the territory and hold it for weeks? It's because this is hold it for weeks? It's because this is hold it for weeks? It's because this is Pakistan.

Pakistan. Pakistan. We haven't even shown the rest of Iran We haven't even shown the rest of Iran We haven't even shown the rest of Iran here. uh Tehran is is is over here. So here. uh Tehran is is is over here. So here. uh Tehran is is is over here. So maybe we want to Yeah, why don't we uh maybe we want to Yeah, why don't we uh maybe we want to Yeah, why don't we uh bring the other map here as well. So bring the other map here as well. So bring the other map here as well. So what we have done, Stephen, is we have what we have done, Stephen, is we have what we have done, Stephen, is we have concentrated our forces here in the Gulf concentrated our forces here in the Gulf concentrated our forces here in the Gulf of Oman. This is our carriers, our of Oman. This is our carriers, our of Oman. This is our carriers, our destroyers, our battleships, and they destroyers, our battleships, and they destroyers, our battleships, and they can provide some air cover here for can provide some air cover here for can provide some air cover here for ships that might pass through uh the ships that might pass through uh the ships that might pass through uh the southern part here. So they I'm not southern part here. So they I'm not southern part here. So they I'm not saying this is the only possible saying this is the only possible saying this is the only possible mission. Uh, but those Marines and the mission. Uh, but those Marines and the mission. Uh, but those Marines and the 82nd Airborne, they're not helping. 82nd Airborne, they're not helping. 82nd Airborne, they're not helping. They're not really there to help ships They're not really there to help ships They're not really there to help ships pass through the straight of Hormuz, but pass through the straight of Hormuz, but pass through the straight of Hormuz, but they're here. Okay. At least the Marines they're here. Okay. At least the Marines they're here. Okay. At least the Marines are here. are here. are here. >> Where? >> Where? >> Where? >> Uh, we don't they're somewhere in the >> Uh, we don't they're somewhere in the >> Uh, we don't they're somewhere in the straight of in the Gulf of Oman. We straight of in the Gulf of Oman. We straight of in the Gulf of Oman. We don't know exactly where they are. That don't know exactly where they are. That don't know exactly where they are. That would not be good. would not be good. would not be good. >> You're just saying that cuz some people >> You're just saying that cuz some people >> You're just saying that cuz some people can't hear. can't hear. can't hear. >> Yeah, that's right. So, they're in the >> Yeah, that's right. So, they're in the >> Yeah, that's right. So, they're in the Gulf of Oman uh here, which is to the Gulf of Oman uh here, which is to the Gulf of Oman uh here, which is to the east of Hormuz. The Gulf, the Persian east of Hormuz. The Gulf, the Persian east of Hormuz. The Gulf, the Persian Gulf is to the west of Hormuz. So Hormuz Gulf is to the west of Hormuz. So Hormuz Gulf is to the west of Hormuz. So Hormuz is the true choke point between these is the true choke point between these is the true choke point between these two Gulfs and the Gulf of Oman here is two Gulfs and the Gulf of Oman here is two Gulfs and the Gulf of Oman here is then what's north of it is the then what's north of it is the then what's north of it is the souththeastern coast of Iran which is souththeastern coast of Iran which is souththeastern coast of Iran which is the the least populated part of Iran.

the the least populated part of Iran. the the least populated part of Iran. Iran's population is mostly up here Iran's population is mostly up here Iran's population is mostly up here around the word Iran. around the word Iran. around the word Iran. >> So you're saying that the US might take >> So you're saying that the US might take >> So you're saying that the US might take a small part of Iran from here? a small part of Iran from here? a small part of Iran from here? >> A small part of Iran >> A small part of Iran >> A small part of Iran >> with ground troops? >> with ground troops? >> with ground troops? >> With ground troops? That's right. and >> With ground troops? That's right. and >> With ground troops? That's right. and literally hold it here uh in order to literally hold it here uh in order to literally hold it here uh in order to get a symbolic victory and in order for get a symbolic victory and in order for get a symbolic victory and in order for Iran to knock us out, they have to Iran to knock us out, they have to Iran to knock us out, they have to redirect all of their attention to this. redirect all of their attention to this. redirect all of their attention to this. Uh and this would be this is why I don't Uh and this would be this is why I don't Uh and this would be this is why I don't think it's going to work because think it's going to work because think it's going to work because ultimately they will do this. Uh but in ultimately they will do this. Uh but in ultimately they will do this. Uh but in the short term in a period of say a few the short term in a period of say a few the short term in a period of say a few weeks or so, this uh there's a there's a weeks or so, this uh there's a there's a weeks or so, this uh there's a there's a chance and I say it's a low chance. I'm chance and I say it's a low chance. I'm chance and I say it's a low chance. I'm not trying to tell you I would advocate not trying to tell you I would advocate not trying to tell you I would advocate for this. I would not advocate for this. for this. I would not advocate for this. for this. I would not advocate for this. I'm trying to explain what these troop I'm trying to explain what these troop I'm trying to explain what these troop these forces are doing here because these forces are doing here because these forces are doing here because otherwise there's no point in having otherwise there's no point in having otherwise there's no point in having these forces here. these forces here. these forces here. >> Okay. So, some questions on this then. >> Okay. So, some questions on this then. >> Okay. So, some questions on this then. If they if the US do I guess invade Iran If they if the US do I guess invade Iran If they if the US do I guess invade Iran from from from >> capture >> capture >> capture port little one of these port towns port little one of these port towns port little one of these port towns >> from the sort of south east here.

>> from the sort of south east here. >> from the sort of south east here. >> That's right. >> That's right. >> That's right. >> This would mean that Iran have a target >> This would mean that Iran have a target >> This would mean that Iran have a target to kill American soldiers. to kill American soldiers. to kill American soldiers. >> That's right. And the cost of losing >> That's right. And the cost of losing >> That's right. And the cost of losing American soldiers, especially back home American soldiers, especially back home American soldiers, especially back home in America, would be tremendous. in America, would be tremendous. in America, would be tremendous. >> You're talking about hundreds dead over >> You're talking about hundreds dead over >> You're talking about hundreds dead over a period of at least weeks. a period of at least weeks. a period of at least weeks. >> And this would be just terrible >> And this would be just terrible >> And this would be just terrible politically for boots to be on the politically for boots to be on the politically for boots to be on the ground and be dying in Iran. ground and be dying in Iran. ground and be dying in Iran. >> Well, it will be divisive politically. >> Well, it will be divisive politically. >> Well, it will be divisive politically. So for people that are opposed to the So for people that are opposed to the So for people that are opposed to the war, this will make them even more war, this will make them even more war, this will make them even more opposed to the war. But for people that opposed to the war. But for people that opposed to the war. But for people that are supporting the war, and this is the are supporting the war, and this is the are supporting the war, and this is the part of the politics that I study, part of the politics that I study, part of the politics that I study, Stephen, uh it's important to understand Stephen, uh it's important to understand Stephen, uh it's important to understand that there's a large part of MAGA that that there's a large part of MAGA that that there's a large part of MAGA that is incredibly supportive of this war. In is incredibly supportive of this war. In is incredibly supportive of this war. In fact, the opinion polls uh uh tend to fact, the opinion polls uh uh tend to fact, the opinion polls uh uh tend to show that more MAGA supports regime show that more MAGA supports regime show that more MAGA supports regime change uh for Iran than oppose it. So, change uh for Iran than oppose it. So, change uh for Iran than oppose it. So, this is not like MAGA has become Tucker this is not like MAGA has become Tucker this is not like MAGA has become Tucker Carlson country or something. This is Carlson country or something. This is Carlson country or something. This is still Trump country uh here and they still Trump country uh here and they still Trump country uh here and they want Trump to win. Well, what you are want Trump to win. Well, what you are want Trump to win. Well, what you are seeing here is that if there are if seeing here is that if there are if seeing here is that if there are if there are troops that are killed, you there are troops that are killed, you there are troops that are killed, you are likely going to see, and you're are likely going to see, and you're are likely going to see, and you're seeing this on Fox News this morning seeing this on Fox News this morning seeing this on Fox News this morning after three more died over the weekend, after three more died over the weekend, after three more died over the weekend, you're seeing a tremendous amount of you're seeing a tremendous amount of you're seeing a tremendous amount of support for our troops and therefore the support for our troops and therefore the support for our troops and therefore the war.

war. war. >> Okay, so I've got some numbers here >> Okay, so I've got some numbers here >> Okay, so I've got some numbers here >> about public support. Based on recent >> about public support. Based on recent >> about public support. Based on recent polling from mid 2026, the ongoing polling from mid 2026, the ongoing polling from mid 2026, the ongoing military conflict with Iran remains military conflict with Iran remains military conflict with Iran remains highly unpopular with the general highly unpopular with the general highly unpopular with the general American public, but support is sharply American public, but support is sharply American public, but support is sharply divided along political lines. Overall, divided along political lines. Overall, divided along political lines. Overall, roughly 27 to 34% of Americans support roughly 27 to 34% of Americans support roughly 27 to 34% of Americans support the war, while a solid majority of 53 to the war, while a solid majority of 53 to the war, while a solid majority of 53 to 57% oppose it. But then when you look at 57% oppose it. But then when you look at 57% oppose it. But then when you look at MAGA, it says that 77% to 85% of MAGA MAGA, it says that 77% to 85% of MAGA MAGA, it says that 77% to 85% of MAGA support the war. There's a MAGA support the war. There's a MAGA support the war. There's a MAGA Republicans and only 5% to 14% of MAGA Republicans and only 5% to 14% of MAGA Republicans and only 5% to 14% of MAGA Republicans oppose the war. Republicans oppose the war. Republicans oppose the war. >> That's right. So what you are seeing is >> That's right. So what you are seeing is >> That's right. So what you are seeing is the divisions in our country which have the divisions in our country which have the divisions in our country which have been building for years been building for years been building for years are still in existence with this war and are still in existence with this war and are still in existence with this war and they're becoming hardened in this war. they're becoming hardened in this war. they're becoming hardened in this war. And if as deaths occur, this is likely And if as deaths occur, this is likely And if as deaths occur, this is likely to harden the division, not shift, at to harden the division, not shift, at to harden the division, not shift, at least not shift much of MAGA to the least not shift much of MAGA to the least not shift much of MAGA to the anti-war position. And the reason is anti-war position. And the reason is anti-war position. And the reason is because just as Trump complained when because just as Trump complained when because just as Trump complained when President Biden pulled out from uh President Biden pulled out from uh President Biden pulled out from uh Afghanistan Afghanistan Afghanistan there, this is going to be uh not just a there, this is going to be uh not just a there, this is going to be uh not just a loss for Trump if he pulls out. This loss for Trump if he pulls out. This loss for Trump if he pulls out. This will be viewed as a as as an insult to will be viewed as a as as an insult to will be viewed as a as as an insult to the people who died. And so people will the people who died. And so people will the people who died. And so people will say, "So if we leave, did those people

say, "So if we leave, did those people say, "So if we leave, did those people die as a mistake? Was it a mistake? Is die as a mistake? Was it a mistake? Is die as a mistake? Was it a mistake? Is their death were their deaths their death were their deaths their death were their deaths worthless?" That's a hard thing. And worthless?" That's a hard thing. And worthless?" That's a hard thing. And that's one of the reasons why when that's one of the reasons why when that's one of the reasons why when troops die in war for months, this can troops die in war for months, this can troops die in war for months, this can harden support for a war, possibly even harden support for a war, possibly even harden support for a war, possibly even grow it. Over time, yes, it tends to grow it. Over time, yes, it tends to grow it. Over time, yes, it tends to whittle down, but in the in the near whittle down, but in the in the near whittle down, but in the in the near term, deaths can actually harden support term, deaths can actually harden support term, deaths can actually harden support for the war. And that's a thing that for the war. And that's a thing that for the war. And that's a thing that most people aren't really fully grasping most people aren't really fully grasping most people aren't really fully grasping yet. yet. yet. >> How real is the risk that the US will do >> How real is the risk that the US will do >> How real is the risk that the US will do some kind of limited ground operation some kind of limited ground operation some kind of limited ground operation with boots on the ground in Iran? with boots on the ground in Iran? with boots on the ground in Iran? uh well over 50%. I think it's uh uh well over 50%. I think it's uh uh well over 50%. I think it's uh bordering on 70% now. Um and the reasons bordering on 70% now. Um and the reasons bordering on 70% now. Um and the reasons are that uh number one, the economic are that uh number one, the economic are that uh number one, the economic crisis that President Trump was trying crisis that President Trump was trying crisis that President Trump was trying to prevent and therefore the economic to prevent and therefore the economic to prevent and therefore the economic costs that will hurt him later is costs that will hurt him later is costs that will hurt him later is already starting to become baked in. already starting to become baked in. already starting to become baked in. what you're hearing this morning with what you're hearing this morning with what you're hearing this morning with the Houthis closing the pipeline area the Houthis closing the pipeline area the Houthis closing the pipeline area around Yanbu, it's called this port city around Yanbu, it's called this port city around Yanbu, it's called this port city in the Red Sea where the uh 4 to 5 in the Red Sea where the uh 4 to 5 in the Red Sea where the uh 4 to 5 million barrels of Saudi oil is coming million barrels of Saudi oil is coming million barrels of Saudi oil is coming out. What you're hear what that is going out. What you're hear what that is going out. What you're hear what that is going to do is make the economic crisis even to do is make the economic crisis even to do is make the economic crisis even more baked in, even more likely unless more baked in, even more likely unless more baked in, even more likely unless it's immediately reversed. And even if it's immediately reversed. And even if it's immediately reversed. And even if it was immediately reversed tomorrow, it was immediately reversed tomorrow, it was immediately reversed tomorrow, that could be reversed again the next that could be reversed again the next that could be reversed again the next day after that. this is starting to day after that. this is starting to day after that. this is starting to spiral out of control because it's not spiral out of control because it's not spiral out of control because it's not just up to President Trump now to to put just up to President Trump now to to put just up to President Trump now to to put this genie back in the bottle. President this genie back in the bottle. President this genie back in the bottle. President Trump can actually still uh can withdraw

Trump can actually still uh can withdraw Trump can actually still uh can withdraw and uh but right now Iran has to stop and uh but right now Iran has to stop and uh but right now Iran has to stop the escalation. It has to let the Red the escalation. It has to let the Red the escalation. It has to let the Red Sea oil flow. It has to allow ships to Sea oil flow. It has to allow ships to Sea oil flow. It has to allow ships to flow from Hormuz. And Iran is not is in flow from Hormuz. And Iran is not is in flow from Hormuz. And Iran is not is in a mood for revenge. Iran is there is a mood for revenge. Iran is there is a mood for revenge. Iran is there is emotions coursing through Iran, but it's emotions coursing through Iran, but it's emotions coursing through Iran, but it's not um causing Iran to uh uh pull back. not um causing Iran to uh uh pull back. not um causing Iran to uh uh pull back. Uh it's causing Iran to want revenge. Uh it's causing Iran to want revenge. Uh it's causing Iran to want revenge. And the leader statement, the Supreme And the leader statement, the Supreme And the leader statement, the Supreme Leader statement just of a couple days Leader statement just of a couple days Leader statement just of a couple days ago, this was Saturday, uh two uh US ago, this was Saturday, uh two uh US ago, this was Saturday, uh two uh US soldiers were tragically killed in soldiers were tragically killed in soldiers were tragically killed in Jordan. Um he called it uh what the Jordan. Um he called it uh what the Jordan. Um he called it uh what the Supreme Leader did was uh used the Supreme Leader did was uh used the Supreme Leader did was uh used the phrase that he's going to deliver phrase that he's going to deliver phrase that he's going to deliver unforgettable lessons to America. unforgettable lessons to America. unforgettable lessons to America. Unforgettable lessons is the exact Unforgettable lessons is the exact Unforgettable lessons is the exact phrase by the Supreme Leader over the phrase by the Supreme Leader over the phrase by the Supreme Leader over the weekend. What you are seeing here, weekend. What you are seeing here, weekend. What you are seeing here, Stephen, is as we have essentially as Stephen, is as we have essentially as Stephen, is as we have essentially as Iran um started to shoot now shoot at Iran um started to shoot now shoot at Iran um started to shoot now shoot at ships here to try to reinforce theou, ships here to try to reinforce theou, ships here to try to reinforce theou, President Trump up the ante. Now we're President Trump up the ante. Now we're President Trump up the ante. Now we're in our ninth week, ninth day of bombing in our ninth week, ninth day of bombing in our ninth week, ninth day of bombing in a row. Now Iran is upping the Annie.

in a row. Now Iran is upping the Annie. in a row. Now Iran is upping the Annie. And Iran is upping the Annie in multiple And Iran is upping the Annie in multiple And Iran is upping the Annie in multiple ways. It's attacking our base in Jordan, ways. It's attacking our base in Jordan, ways. It's attacking our base in Jordan, which it only rarely done since uh since which it only rarely done since uh since which it only rarely done since uh since March, actually. It's now with the March, actually. It's now with the March, actually. It's now with the Houthis closing the Red Sea. And we Houthis closing the Red Sea. And we Houthis closing the Red Sea. And we haven't yet talked about Kuwait. And we haven't yet talked about Kuwait. And we haven't yet talked about Kuwait. And we should talk about what happened here should talk about what happened here should talk about what happened here over the weekend here in Kuwait because over the weekend here in Kuwait because over the weekend here in Kuwait because this is a harbinger of what's to come this is a harbinger of what's to come this is a harbinger of what's to come because it shows how ferocious the anger because it shows how ferocious the anger because it shows how ferocious the anger is by Iran and how hard it's going to be is by Iran and how hard it's going to be is by Iran and how hard it's going to be to stop this spiral of escalation. And to stop this spiral of escalation. And to stop this spiral of escalation. And that is what is one of the the that's that is what is one of the the that's that is what is one of the the that's what's going to lead to President Trump what's going to lead to President Trump what's going to lead to President Trump thinking long and hard about putting thinking long and hard about putting thinking long and hard about putting those ground forces in because we're not those ground forces in because we're not those ground forces in because we're not making an independent decision now. making an independent decision now. making an independent decision now. >> So you said there's a 70% chance Yes. >> So you said there's a 70% chance Yes. >> So you said there's a 70% chance Yes. >> that troops could be put on the ground >> that troops could be put on the ground >> that troops could be put on the ground in Iran. in Iran. in Iran. >> Yes. I think within I think probably uh >> Yes. I think within I think probably uh >> Yes. I think within I think probably uh within the next month, maybe even within the next month, maybe even within the next month, maybe even shorter than that. It could even be by shorter than that. It could even be by shorter than that. It could even be by the end of this week.

the end of this week. the end of this week. This is something that I've made for This is something that I've made for This is something that I've made for you. I've realized that the direio you. I've realized that the direio you. I've realized that the direio audience are strivals that we want to accomplish. And one of that we want to accomplish. And one of the things I've learned is that when you the things I've learned is that when you the things I've learned is that when you aim at the big big big goal, it can feel aim at the big big big goal, it can feel aim at the big big big goal, it can feel incredibly psychologically uncomfortable incredibly psychologically uncomfortable incredibly psychologically uncomfortable because it's kind of like being stood at because it's kind of like being stood at because it's kind of like being stood at the foot of Mount Everest and looking the foot of Mount Everest and looking the foot of Mount Everest and looking upwards. The way to accomplish your upwards. The way to accomplish your upwards. The way to accomplish your goals is by breaking them down into tiny goals is by breaking them down into tiny goals is by breaking them down into tiny small steps. And we call this in our small steps. And we call this in our small steps. And we call this in our team the 1%. And actually this team the 1%. And actually this team the 1%. And actually this philosophy is highly responsible for philosophy is highly responsible for philosophy is highly responsible for much of our success here. So what we've much of our success here. So what we've much of our success here. So what we've done so that you at home can accomplish done so that you at home can accomplish done so that you at home can accomplish any big goal that you have is we've made any big goal that you have is we've made any big goal that you have is we've made these 1% diaries and we released these these 1% diaries and we released these these 1% diaries and we released these last year and they all sold out. So I last year and they all sold out. So I last year and they all sold out. So I asked my team over and over again to asked my team over and over again to asked my team over and over again to bring the diaries back but also to bring the diaries back but also to bring the diaries back but also to introduce some new colors and to make introduce some new colors and to make introduce some new colors and to make some minor tweaks to the diary. So now some minor tweaks to the diary. So now some minor tweaks to the diary. So now we have a better range for you. So, if we have a better range for you. So, if we have a better range for you. So, if you have a big goal in mind and you need you have a big goal in mind and you need you have a big goal in mind and you need a framework and a process and some a framework and a process and some a framework and a process and some motivation, then I highly recommend you motivation, then I highly recommend you motivation, then I highly recommend you get one of these diaries before they get one of these diaries before they get one of these diaries before they will sell out once again. And you can will sell out once again. And you can will sell out once again. And you can get yours at the diary.com.

get yours at the diary.com. get yours at the diary.com. And if you want the link, the link is in And if you want the link, the link is in And if you want the link, the link is in the description below. the description below. the description below. You've shown me on the graph that you've You've shown me on the graph that you've You've shown me on the graph that you've just shown the escalation ladder, you just shown the escalation ladder, you just shown the escalation ladder, you can call it, and and where we are now. can call it, and and where we are now. can call it, and and where we are now. What is the most probable next thing What is the most probable next thing What is the most probable next thing that you think happens with this war? that you think happens with this war? that you think happens with this war? The biggest thing I'm worried about is a The biggest thing I'm worried about is a The biggest thing I'm worried about is a mass casualty attack against American mass casualty attack against American mass casualty attack against American troops or American civilians. troops or American civilians. troops or American civilians. >> Wow. >> Wow. >> Wow. >> Against American troops in the Middle >> Against American troops in the Middle >> Against American troops in the Middle East, but I'm specifically worrying East, but I'm specifically worrying East, but I'm specifically worrying about a barrage of ballistic missiles about a barrage of ballistic missiles about a barrage of ballistic missiles against our uh naval ships in the Gulf against our uh naval ships in the Gulf against our uh naval ships in the Gulf of Oman. So the Iran is showing a uh of Oman. So the Iran is showing a uh of Oman. So the Iran is showing a uh through its the targeting it's that it's through its the targeting it's that it's through its the targeting it's that it's already been doing in the last uh week already been doing in the last uh week already been doing in the last uh week and a half an exquisite ability to and a half an exquisite ability to and a half an exquisite ability to precisely target and um we don't know precisely target and um we don't know precisely target and um we don't know for sure they're able to track the for sure they're able to track the for sure they're able to track the movement of our naval ships in the Gulf movement of our naval ships in the Gulf movement of our naval ships in the Gulf of Oman uh or they're getting help with of Oman uh or they're getting help with of Oman uh or they're getting help with either the ch from the Chinese or the either the ch from the Chinese or the either the ch from the Chinese or the Russians in doing that. But I'm Russians in doing that. But I'm Russians in doing that. But I'm specifically worried that as this specifically worried that as this specifically worried that as this escalates, they've just closed the escalates, they've just closed the escalates, they've just closed the straight. They've just closed the Red straight. They've just closed the Red straight. They've just closed the Red Sea. If we keep going forward, and we'll Sea. If we keep going forward, and we'll Sea. If we keep going forward, and we'll find out if we're going to if Trump will find out if we're going to if Trump will find out if we're going to if Trump will pull back or not, but if we keep going pull back or not, but if we keep going pull back or not, but if we keep going forward, one of the big things I'm forward, one of the big things I'm forward, one of the big things I'm concerned about this week, next week, concerned about this week, next week, concerned about this week, next week, would be an attack on a ship. Uh, and I would be an attack on a ship. Uh, and I would be an attack on a ship. Uh, and I think it would be a barrage attack. The think it would be a barrage attack. The think it would be a barrage attack. The second thing I'm concerned about is uh second thing I'm concerned about is uh second thing I'm concerned about is uh because we are now um literally because we are now um literally because we are now um literally threatening ground occupation. That's

threatening ground occupation. That's threatening ground occupation. That's the biggest risk factor for suicide the biggest risk factor for suicide the biggest risk factor for suicide terrorism in my 25 years of studying terrorism in my 25 years of studying terrorism in my 25 years of studying suicide attacks. We haven't talked about suicide attacks. We haven't talked about suicide attacks. We haven't talked about that, Stephen. And the reason we haven't that, Stephen. And the reason we haven't that, Stephen. And the reason we haven't talked about it is because we were talked about it is because we were talked about it is because we were pretty far away from the big risk factor pretty far away from the big risk factor pretty far away from the big risk factor of how you start a big suicide terrorist of how you start a big suicide terrorist of how you start a big suicide terrorist campaign. That is now changing. Um I've campaign. That is now changing. Um I've campaign. That is now changing. Um I've talked to my substack about this. glad talked to my substack about this. glad talked to my substack about this. glad to talk to you about it now. Uh, but I'm to talk to you about it now. Uh, but I'm to talk to you about it now. Uh, but I'm concerned about a mass casualty attack concerned about a mass casualty attack concerned about a mass casualty attack against Americans. This could be against against Americans. This could be against against Americans. This could be against an American airliner. It could be an American airliner. It could be an American airliner. It could be against I mean Americans on a a against I mean Americans on a a against I mean Americans on a a commercial airliner. This could be um commercial airliner. This could be um commercial airliner. This could be um against uh uh Americans, say business uh against uh uh Americans, say business uh against uh uh Americans, say business uh men in uh Aquaba. So you you might know men in uh Aquaba. So you you might know men in uh Aquaba. So you you might know there have been attacks recently in there have been attacks recently in there have been attacks recently in Aquaba, which is this really lovely Aquaba, which is this really lovely Aquaba, which is this really lovely resort town. I've never been there. And resort town. I've never been there. And resort town. I've never been there. And the uh and the fact is um there are the uh and the fact is um there are the uh and the fact is um there are business American businessmen um uh business American businessmen um uh business American businessmen um uh moving all around the Middle East now to moving all around the Middle East now to moving all around the Middle East now to build these pipelines. And so I can build these pipelines. And so I can build these pipelines. And so I can imagine there being terrorist attacks imagine there being terrorist attacks imagine there being terrorist attacks against the uh the hotels that are against the uh the hotels that are against the uh the hotels that are staying at uh the um German and um staying at uh the um German and um staying at uh the um German and um British embassies have just ordered British embassies have just ordered British embassies have just ordered their evacuation. America State their evacuation. America State their evacuation. America State Department has issued an advisory over Department has issued an advisory over Department has issued an advisory over the weekend for Americans to start the weekend for Americans to start the weekend for Americans to start leaving the region. But I'm concerned leaving the region. But I'm concerned leaving the region. But I'm concerned about terrorist attack because about terrorist attack because about terrorist attack because threatening in or actually doing ground threatening in or actually doing ground threatening in or actually doing ground control, controlling pieces of homeland control, controlling pieces of homeland control, controlling pieces of homeland territory is the biggest risk factor for territory is the biggest risk factor for territory is the biggest risk factor for suicide terrorism. That's what causes suicide terrorism. That's what causes suicide terrorism. That's what causes people more than anything else to strap

people more than anything else to strap people more than anything else to strap on bombs to kill others while they're on bombs to kill others while they're on bombs to kill others while they're killing themselves. So before we explain killing themselves. So before we explain killing themselves. So before we explain in detail, so when you say Stephen, what in detail, so when you say Stephen, what in detail, so when you say Stephen, what I'm looking for in the next few weeks, I'm looking for in the next few weeks, I'm looking for in the next few weeks, >> I'm seeing the spiral of escalation now >> I'm seeing the spiral of escalation now >> I'm seeing the spiral of escalation now occurring. It's a two-sided spiral. It's occurring. It's a two-sided spiral. It's occurring. It's a two-sided spiral. It's not just President Trump. Iran is uh uh not just President Trump. Iran is uh uh not just President Trump. Iran is uh uh escalating here as much as Trump, if not escalating here as much as Trump, if not escalating here as much as Trump, if not more. And uh in this spiral of more. And uh in this spiral of more. And uh in this spiral of escalation, there could be a mass escalation, there could be a mass escalation, there could be a mass casualty attack either against our casualty attack either against our casualty attack either against our troops or against American civilians. troops or against American civilians. troops or against American civilians. And the American civilian attack could And the American civilian attack could And the American civilian attack could be anywhere in the world. It could be in be anywhere in the world. It could be in be anywhere in the world. It could be in Indonesia. It could be London. It could Indonesia. It could be London. It could Indonesia. It could be London. It could be anywhere. And if that mass casualty be anywhere. And if that mass casualty be anywhere. And if that mass casualty event happens, I think what you're going event happens, I think what you're going event happens, I think what you're going to see is that this is likely going to to see is that this is likely going to to see is that this is likely going to cause that division we just discussed cause that division we just discussed cause that division we just discussed here to in America, support for the war here to in America, support for the war here to in America, support for the war to harden even more. And you're going to to harden even more. And you're going to to harden even more. And you're going to get though intense support for get though intense support for get though intense support for continuing the war now to stop uh mass continuing the war now to stop uh mass continuing the war now to stop uh mass casualty attacks by Iran in the future.

casualty attacks by Iran in the future. casualty attacks by Iran in the future. So you have spent some of your career So you have spent some of your career So you have spent some of your career studying terrorist attacks studying terrorist attacks studying terrorist attacks >> and I guess suicide terrorist attacks >> and I guess suicide terrorist attacks >> and I guess suicide terrorist attacks >> specifically. Yes. >> specifically. Yes. >> specifically. Yes. >> Give me a view into the research the >> Give me a view into the research the >> Give me a view into the research the work you've done there. You've written a work you've done there. You've written a work you've done there. You've written a book on it. book on it. book on it. >> Two >> Two >> Two >> two books on it. >> two books on it. >> two books on it. >> And then ladder me up to how that's >> And then ladder me up to how that's >> And then ladder me up to how that's relevant to the moment we're in now. So, relevant to the moment we're in now. So, relevant to the moment we're in now. So, shortly after 9/11, this was, remember, shortly after 9/11, this was, remember, shortly after 9/11, this was, remember, America was hit with a a terrorist America was hit with a a terrorist America was hit with a a terrorist attack here in uh New York, the World attack here in uh New York, the World attack here in uh New York, the World Trade Center, the Pentagon. Uh nearly Trade Center, the Pentagon. Uh nearly Trade Center, the Pentagon. Uh nearly 3,000 Americans died that day. I wanted 3,000 Americans died that day. I wanted 3,000 Americans died that day. I wanted to understand why, and I wanted to to understand why, and I wanted to to understand why, and I wanted to understand more. The more I studied it, understand more. The more I studied it, understand more. The more I studied it, I noticed that 9/11 was a suicide I noticed that 9/11 was a suicide I noticed that 9/11 was a suicide attack. It wasn't just a terrorist attack. It wasn't just a terrorist attack. It wasn't just a terrorist attack. So, I started to collect what attack. So, I started to collect what attack. So, I started to collect what became the first complete data set of became the first complete data set of became the first complete data set of all suicide attacks around the world. Uh all suicide attacks around the world. Uh all suicide attacks around the world. Uh I did this uh at the University of I did this uh at the University of I did this uh at the University of Chicago. I did this with a few research Chicago. I did this with a few research Chicago. I did this with a few research assistants, basically work study assistants, basically work study assistants, basically work study students. The suicide terrorism, the students. The suicide terrorism, the students. The suicide terrorism, the reason I studied it, Stephen, was reason I studied it, Stephen, was reason I studied it, Stephen, was because it's the lung cancer of because it's the lung cancer of because it's the lung cancer of terrorism. Suicide attacks kill more terrorism. Suicide attacks kill more terrorism. Suicide attacks kill more people in the category of terrorism than people in the category of terrorism than people in the category of terrorism than all the other different kinds of all the other different kinds of all the other different kinds of terrorism combined. The suicide attacks terrorism combined. The suicide attacks terrorism combined. The suicide attacks are the biggest killer. Uh it's like are the biggest killer. Uh it's like are the biggest killer. Uh it's like lung cancer. We have other kinds of lung cancer. We have other kinds of lung cancer. We have other kinds of cancers, but lung cancer is the biggest cancers, but lung cancer is the biggest cancers, but lung cancer is the biggest killer. And what is the key risk factor killer. And what is the key risk factor killer. And what is the key risk factor for the lung cancer of suicide for the lung cancer of suicide for the lung cancer of suicide terrorism? It's military combat presence terrorism? It's military combat presence terrorism? It's military combat presence on territory the terrorist prize.

on territory the terrorist prize. on territory the terrorist prize. >> So with suicide terrorism, is it hard to >> So with suicide terrorism, is it hard to >> So with suicide terrorism, is it hard to stop? Because you know, we can intercept stop? Because you know, we can intercept stop? Because you know, we can intercept missiles that are coming over pretty missiles that are coming over pretty missiles that are coming over pretty well, it seems, but suicide terrorism well, it seems, but suicide terrorism well, it seems, but suicide terrorism seems to be a completely different type seems to be a completely different type seems to be a completely different type of challenge. Suicide terrorism is like of challenge. Suicide terrorism is like of challenge. Suicide terrorism is like a precision guided is like turning a a precision guided is like turning a a precision guided is like turning a person into a precisiong guided weapon person into a precisiong guided weapon person into a precisiong guided weapon because literally because literally because literally nothing can better identify the most nothing can better identify the most nothing can better identify the most vulnerable point in a crowd, the most vulnerable point in a crowd, the most vulnerable point in a crowd, the most vulnerable point in a building, the vulnerable point in a building, the vulnerable point in a building, the exact split second to set off the the exact split second to set off the the exact split second to set off the the the explosive better than a human. the explosive better than a human. the explosive better than a human. >> And the how does the US, for example, >> And the how does the US, for example, >> And the how does the US, for example, you're saying two things. You're saying you're saying two things. You're saying you're saying two things. You're saying that that attack could happen in the that that attack could happen in the that that attack could happen in the United States, but also it doesn't have United States, but also it doesn't have United States, but also it doesn't have to. It could happen anywhere in those to. It could happen anywhere in those to. It could happen anywhere in those regions where there's a high density of regions where there's a high density of regions where there's a high density of Americans or Westerners. Theoretically, Americans or Westerners. Theoretically, Americans or Westerners. Theoretically, >> that's right. >> that's right. >> that's right. >> Because, you know, the Americans could >> Because, you know, the Americans could >> Because, you know, the Americans could say, "Well, we're not going to let in say, "Well, we're not going to let in say, "Well, we're not going to let in anybody from those regions. We're going anybody from those regions. We're going anybody from those regions. We're going to get more diligent with passport to get more diligent with passport to get more diligent with passport checks, whatever." checks, whatever." checks, whatever." >> That will happen after the fir, God >> That will happen after the fir, God >> That will happen after the fir, God forbid, I hope I'm wrong, Stephen, but forbid, I hope I'm wrong, Stephen, but forbid, I hope I'm wrong, Stephen, but if and when that first attack happens, if and when that first attack happens, if and when that first attack happens, you're going to see all that come out.

you're going to see all that come out. you're going to see all that come out. You're going to see what can come out. You're going to see what can come out. You're going to see what can come out. >> You're going to see all the idea of what >> You're going to see all the idea of what >> You're going to see all the idea of what can we do? Can we do passport checks? can we do? Can we do passport checks? can we do? Can we do passport checks? Can we do X or Y? What this is right Can we do X or Y? What this is right Can we do X or Y? What this is right after 911, similar thing happened. Let's after 911, similar thing happened. Let's after 911, similar thing happened. Let's hope nothing that large would would hope nothing that large would would hope nothing that large would would happen. But let me just further explain happen. But let me just further explain happen. But let me just further explain that when I when I um compiled that that when I when I um compiled that that when I when I um compiled that database and it made a specific database and it made a specific database and it made a specific prediction. It predicted then that if we prediction. It predicted then that if we prediction. It predicted then that if we invaded and occupied Iraq, we would invaded and occupied Iraq, we would invaded and occupied Iraq, we would touch off the largest suicide terrorist touch off the largest suicide terrorist touch off the largest suicide terrorist campaign in modern times. campaign in modern times. campaign in modern times. What is it? What is it about okay What is it? What is it about okay What is it? What is it about okay invading invading invading their country in particular versus their country in particular versus their country in particular versus bombing their country in particular that bombing their country in particular that bombing their country in particular that causes suicide terrorist attacks from causes suicide terrorist attacks from causes suicide terrorist attacks from your research? Like what is it? Because your research? Like what is it? Because your research? Like what is it? Because bombing them from the sky is is killing bombing them from the sky is is killing bombing them from the sky is is killing people that it's not the killing people people that it's not the killing people people that it's not the killing people part of this that matters. It's the part of this that matters. It's the part of this that matters. It's the political control part that comes with political control part that comes with political control part that comes with the ground forces. So the reason to use the ground forces. So the reason to use the ground forces. So the reason to use the ground forces is to impose political the ground forces is to impose political the ground forces is to impose political control.

control. control. >> So >> So >> So >> that's not just killing people, Stephen. >> that's not just killing people, Stephen. >> that's not just killing people, Stephen. >> So the reason why America put in ground >> So the reason why America put in ground >> So the reason why America put in ground forces forces forces >> is to get political control and that >> is to get political control and that >> is to get political control and that political control means the group political control means the group political control means the group controlled doesn't control its way of controlled doesn't control its way of controlled doesn't control its way of life. life. life. >> It's sort of seen as a deeper violation. >> It's sort of seen as a deeper violation. >> It's sort of seen as a deeper violation. Is that ultimately what it is? It's a Is that ultimately what it is? It's a Is that ultimately what it is? It's a deeper violation that is uh not in deeper violation that is uh not in deeper violation that is uh not in control of the local population. So when control of the local population. So when control of the local population. So when we put in ground forces in Afghanistan we put in ground forces in Afghanistan we put in ground forces in Afghanistan after we topple the Taliban, we topple after we topple the Taliban, we topple after we topple the Taliban, we topple the Taliban with their power by the way, the Taliban with their power by the way, the Taliban with their power by the way, but we don't get much suicide attacks in but we don't get much suicide attacks in but we don't get much suicide attacks in Afghanistan till we start pouring in Afghanistan till we start pouring in Afghanistan till we start pouring in ground forces in Afghanistan. That comes ground forces in Afghanistan. That comes ground forces in Afghanistan. That comes after we topple the Taliban. So we after we topple the Taliban. So we after we topple the Taliban. So we topple the Taliban in fall 2021 and then topple the Taliban in fall 2021 and then topple the Taliban in fall 2021 and then we get the suicide terrorism starting we get the suicide terrorism starting we get the suicide terrorism starting several years later in Afghanistan. It's several years later in Afghanistan. It's several years later in Afghanistan. It's because that's when we're putting in the because that's when we're putting in the because that's when we're putting in the ground forces. ground forces. ground forces. >> So Donald Trump has just posted on Truth >> So Donald Trump has just posted on Truth >> So Donald Trump has just posted on Truth Social a few hours ago saying every time Social a few hours ago saying every time Social a few hours ago saying every time Iran kills an American soldier, they Iran kills an American soldier, they Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay for that killing many times will pay for that killing many times will pay for that killing many times over. This directive has been passed over. This directive has been passed over. This directive has been passed onto the Secretary of War, Pete Hexath, onto the Secretary of War, Pete Hexath, onto the Secretary of War, Pete Hexath, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs and his other military leader. And and his other military leader. And and his other military leader. And obviously this is in response to losing obviously this is in response to losing obviously this is in response to losing an American life. and he's very actively an American life. and he's very actively an American life. and he's very actively tweeting as we speak about the war um tweeting as we speak about the war um tweeting as we speak about the war um tweet after tweet after tweet after tweet after tweet after tweet after tweet after tweet after tweet after tweet on true social. It it it begs the tweet on true social. It it it begs the tweet on true social. It it it begs the I mean I just don't know what is there a I mean I just don't know what is there a I mean I just don't know what is there a end an achievable endgame or off-ramp end an achievable endgame or off-ramp end an achievable endgame or off-ramp here that restores the free shipping

here that restores the free shipping here that restores the free shipping through the straight of Hermuz but also through the straight of Hermuz but also through the straight of Hermuz but also allows the United States to retract allows the United States to retract allows the United States to retract without appearing to have suffered a a without appearing to have suffered a a without appearing to have suffered a a strategic defeat. strategic defeat. strategic defeat. >> No, Stephen, there is not an achievable >> No, Stephen, there is not an achievable >> No, Stephen, there is not an achievable offramp. um that ship sailed first when offramp. um that ship sailed first when offramp. um that ship sailed first when um President Trump decided in the first um President Trump decided in the first um President Trump decided in the first week in March not to declare he could week in March not to declare he could week in March not to declare he could have declared my advice at that point have declared my advice at that point have declared my advice at that point first week in March was to declare first week in March was to declare first week in March was to declare victory and walk away to say all you victory and walk away to say all you victory and walk away to say all you wanted to do was teach Iran a lesson wanted to do was teach Iran a lesson wanted to do was teach Iran a lesson you'd killed the supreme leader a bunch you'd killed the supreme leader a bunch you'd killed the supreme leader a bunch of other leaders now let's go back uh to of other leaders now let's go back uh to of other leaders now let's go back uh to negotiate uh with um about Iran's negotiate uh with um about Iran's negotiate uh with um about Iran's nuclear prayer he did not do that when I nuclear prayer he did not do that when I nuclear prayer he did not do that when I was with you in April I was giving a was with you in April I was giving a was with you in April I was giving a different advice. Um that advice then different advice. Um that advice then different advice. Um that advice then was to militarily contain Israel. That was to militarily contain Israel. That was to militarily contain Israel. That advice was to keep a lid. Israel was advice was to keep a lid. Israel was advice was to keep a lid. Israel was moving into Lebanon doing other things. moving into Lebanon doing other things. moving into Lebanon doing other things. Keep a lid on Israel militarily. Um Keep a lid on Israel militarily. Um Keep a lid on Israel militarily. Um President Trump has taken these ideas President Trump has taken these ideas President Trump has taken these ideas and I'm not saying because I said them, and I'm not saying because I said them, and I'm not saying because I said them, but he's taken those ideas months too but he's taken those ideas months too but he's taken those ideas months too late. If you look at what I'm I think late. If you look at what I'm I think late. If you look at what I'm I think President Trump might think he is trying President Trump might think he is trying President Trump might think he is trying to militarily contain Israel right now to militarily contain Israel right now to militarily contain Israel right now uh with theou I do think he tried to uh with theou I do think he tried to uh with theou I do think he tried to declare victory and and and walk out.

declare victory and and and walk out. declare victory and and and walk out. But the problem here Stephen is that But the problem here Stephen is that But the problem here Stephen is that these are now u a day late and a dollar these are now u a day late and a dollar these are now u a day late and a dollar short. They're just not good enough. So short. They're just not good enough. So short. They're just not good enough. So if you wanted to get back to the if you wanted to get back to the if you wanted to get back to the negotiating track, what exactly are you negotiating track, what exactly are you negotiating track, what exactly are you going to uh offer Iran to come back to going to uh offer Iran to come back to going to uh offer Iran to come back to the table at this point? The sameou say, the table at this point? The sameou say, the table at this point? The sameou say, "Oh, sure. We're going to now just we're "Oh, sure. We're going to now just we're "Oh, sure. We're going to now just we're going to we're going to honor theou that going to we're going to honor theou that going to we're going to honor theou that we already signed and then we violated we already signed and then we violated we already signed and then we violated over and over and over." You're not over and over and over." You're not over and over and over." You're not that's not credible. that's not credible. that's not credible. >> So is this the forever war? >> So is this the forever war? >> So is this the forever war? >> No, we're not yet in the forever war >> No, we're not yet in the forever war >> No, we're not yet in the forever war stage. stage. stage. >> But you said there's no way out. >> But you said there's no way out. >> But you said there's no way out. There's the way out would be if the There's the way out would be if the There's the way out would be if the midterms come and the Democrats win midterms come and the Democrats win midterms come and the Democrats win either the House or the House and the either the House or the House and the either the House or the House and the Senate and they shut down the money for Senate and they shut down the money for Senate and they shut down the money for the war. the war. the war. >> Oh, >> Oh, >> Oh, >> that is a way out. >> that is a way out. >> that is a way out. >> Oh, they can do that. >> Oh, they can do that. >> Oh, they can do that. >> So, this is Yes. That's what happened in >> So, this is Yes. That's what happened in >> So, this is Yes. That's what happened in Vietnam. Vietnam. Vietnam. >> They they they can shut down the money >> They they they can shut down the money >> They they they can shut down the money for the war. for the war. for the war. >> They can shut down the That's what >> They can shut down the That's what >> They can shut down the That's what Congress did. Yes. Congress has the Congress did. Yes. Congress has the Congress did. Yes. Congress has the power. It doesn't use it very often. And power. It doesn't use it very often. And power. It doesn't use it very often. And the last time I did this was in 1974.

the last time I did this was in 1974. the last time I did this was in 1974. The reason I, as I showed you on that The reason I, as I showed you on that The reason I, as I showed you on that escalation ladder, I said there is a escalation ladder, I said there is a escalation ladder, I said there is a stage five, a forever war. We're not at stage five, a forever war. We're not at stage five, a forever war. We're not at a forever war yet. What would be a a forever war yet. What would be a a forever war yet. What would be a forever war would be um uh where that forever war would be um uh where that forever war would be um uh where that will come. And and the reason I'm will come. And and the reason I'm will come. And and the reason I'm defining the the escalation period defining the the escalation period defining the the escalation period between now and the midterms is the most between now and the midterms is the most between now and the midterms is the most crucial period right now. This is going crucial period right now. This is going crucial period right now. This is going to determine everything. And the and to determine everything. And the and to determine everything. And the and what's going to determine the outcome of what's going to determine the outcome of what's going to determine the outcome of the next few months is can America open the next few months is can America open the next few months is can America open the straight of form physically. What the straight of form physically. What the straight of form physically. What could easily happen between now and the could easily happen between now and the could easily happen between now and the midterms is President Trump tries to midterms is President Trump tries to midterms is President Trump tries to open the straight of form moves or he open the straight of form moves or he open the straight of form moves or he allows Iran by the way to um he pulls allows Iran by the way to um he pulls allows Iran by the way to um he pulls back. He could actually pull back. back. He could actually pull back. back. He could actually pull back. Either way, at this point, Stephen, Either way, at this point, Stephen, Either way, at this point, Stephen, there's um uh there's a good chance he there's um uh there's a good chance he there's um uh there's a good chance he will uh lose in the midterms, meaning will uh lose in the midterms, meaning will uh lose in the midterms, meaning that the Republicans will lose one or that the Republicans will lose one or that the Republicans will lose one or both houses in Congress. And if that both houses in Congress. And if that both houses in Congress. And if that happens, then uh whoever takes over happens, then uh whoever takes over happens, then uh whoever takes over control will be a Democrat. They'll be control will be a Democrat. They'll be control will be a Democrat. They'll be hotly um anti-war. And there will be uh hotly um anti-war. And there will be uh hotly um anti-war. And there will be uh great efforts here to shut down the war, great efforts here to shut down the war, great efforts here to shut down the war, meaning shut down the money for the war.

meaning shut down the money for the war. meaning shut down the money for the war. So, it's always about the money. So, it's always about the money. So, it's always about the money. >> I need to get an understanding of the >> I need to get an understanding of the >> I need to get an understanding of the role. So this sort of link between the role. So this sort of link between the role. So this sort of link between the midterms, the money, and then the war. midterms, the money, and then the war. midterms, the money, and then the war. So the midterms are going to change So the midterms are going to change So the midterms are going to change who's in Congress. who's in Congress. who's in Congress. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> And then the people in >> And then the people in >> And then the people in >> who controls it. >> who controls it. >> who controls it. >> And the people in Congress, they decide >> And the people in Congress, they decide >> And the people in Congress, they decide how much money the military gets. how much money the military gets. how much money the military gets. >> They decide whether or not um they can >> They decide whether or not um they can >> They decide whether or not um they can pass laws, and this is what happened in pass laws, and this is what happened in pass laws, and this is what happened in 1974, 1974, 1974, uh to prevent money from being spent on uh to prevent money from being spent on uh to prevent money from being spent on the war. the war. the war. >> And Trump can't overdo that. He >> And Trump can't overdo that. He >> And Trump can't overdo that. He >> he can try to work around it. Uh there >> he can try to work around it. Uh there >> he can try to work around it. Uh there can be then Supreme Court cases and so can be then Supreme Court cases and so can be then Supreme Court cases and so forth and so on. forth and so on. forth and so on. >> So even if Democrats win the midterms >> So even if Democrats win the midterms >> So even if Democrats win the midterms and try to halt the war, Trump could and try to halt the war, Trump could and try to halt the war, Trump could bypass them because he holds massive bypass them because he holds massive bypass them because he holds massive constitutional advantages as constitutional advantages as constitutional advantages as commander-in-chief. He can simply veto commander-in-chief. He can simply veto commander-in-chief. He can simply veto any war powers resolution or funding any war powers resolution or funding any war powers resolution or funding restriction passed by Congress, which restriction passed by Congress, which restriction passed by Congress, which would then require an incredibly would then require an incredibly would then require an incredibly difficult 2/3 supermajority in both difficult 2/3 supermajority in both difficult 2/3 supermajority in both chambers to override. Furthermore, chambers to override. Furthermore, chambers to override. Furthermore, mirroring the arguments of almost every mirroring the arguments of almost every mirroring the arguments of almost every president since Richard Nixon, Trump president since Richard Nixon, Trump president since Richard Nixon, Trump could evoke his Article 2 constitutional could evoke his Article 2 constitutional could evoke his Article 2 constitutional authority, claiming he has the inherent authority, claiming he has the inherent authority, claiming he has the inherent power to defend America's interests and power to defend America's interests and power to defend America's interests and troops without needing legislative troops without needing legislative troops without needing legislative approval. Finally, even if Congress approval. Finally, even if Congress approval. Finally, even if Congress refuses to authorize new funding, the refuses to authorize new funding, the refuses to authorize new funding, the president can use emergency transfer president can use emergency transfer president can use emergency transfer authorities and creative accounting to authorities and creative accounting to authorities and creative accounting to shuffle existing Pentagon budget funds shuffle existing Pentagon budget funds shuffle existing Pentagon budget funds to keep the military operations running to keep the military operations running to keep the military operations running in the short term. You've just defined a in the short term. You've just defined a in the short term. You've just defined a constitutional crisis. Congress will constitutional crisis. Congress will constitutional crisis. Congress will think it has the power. President Trump

think it has the power. President Trump think it has the power. President Trump will think he has the power. That is will think he has the power. That is will think he has the power. That is what is a constitutional crisis. And what is a constitutional crisis. And what is a constitutional crisis. And that's why these midterms, as my that's why these midterms, as my that's why these midterms, as my don't mean to to say it quite in this don't mean to to say it quite in this don't mean to to say it quite in this context, but as you know, I have a book context, but as you know, I have a book context, but as you know, I have a book coming out, Our own worst enemies, the coming out, Our own worst enemies, the coming out, Our own worst enemies, the preface is called uh the most dangerous preface is called uh the most dangerous preface is called uh the most dangerous elections in our lifetimes. That is why elections in our lifetimes. That is why elections in our lifetimes. That is why this election coming up will be the most this election coming up will be the most this election coming up will be the most dangerous election in our lifetime dangerous election in our lifetime dangerous election in our lifetime because the tensions now are growing. On because the tensions now are growing. On because the tensions now are growing. On top of all that, they're not calming top of all that, they're not calming top of all that, they're not calming down those waters. The Iran war is down those waters. The Iran war is down those waters. The Iran war is making all these worse. And what you making all these worse. And what you making all these worse. And what you just read is the tension here that is just read is the tension here that is just read is the tension here that is that could well come because the that could well come because the that could well come because the Democrats are not going to want it to Democrats are not going to want it to Democrats are not going to want it to there to be a forever war. and they were there to be a forever war. and they were there to be a forever war. and they were going to they'll likely fight really going to they'll likely fight really going to they'll likely fight really hard once uh once they control the um uh hard once uh once they control the um uh hard once uh once they control the um uh once they control one or both houses of once they control one or both houses of once they control one or both houses of Congress. President Trump will want to Congress. President Trump will want to Congress. President Trump will want to fight really hard for his legacy and his fight really hard for his legacy and his fight really hard for his legacy and his um uh domestic agenda, including uh um uh domestic agenda, including uh um uh domestic agenda, including uh deportations, including ICE. So, this deportations, including ICE. So, this deportations, including ICE. So, this will all come together. These will not will all come together. These will not will all come together. These will not be compartmentalized separate issues as be compartmentalized separate issues as be compartmentalized separate issues as we get into the midterms. That's why I'm we get into the midterms. That's why I'm we get into the midterms. That's why I'm saying that we're coming the midterms.

saying that we're coming the midterms. saying that we're coming the midterms. The midterms. The midterms. We're not The midterms. The midterms. We're not The midterms. The midterms. We're not heading to a future where it's just heading to a future where it's just heading to a future where it's just about what happens to military bases about what happens to military bases about what happens to military bases overseas. It's just about what happens overseas. It's just about what happens overseas. It's just about what happens to ships overseas, what's happened in to ships overseas, what's happened in to ships overseas, what's happened in Hormuz. These lines, the domestic Hormuz. These lines, the domestic Hormuz. These lines, the domestic political violence in the United States, political violence in the United States, political violence in the United States, I call this the era of violent populism. I call this the era of violent populism. I call this the era of violent populism. and the growing tensions in the country and the growing tensions in the country and the growing tensions in the country over the Iran war. These two lines, the over the Iran war. These two lines, the over the Iran war. These two lines, the domestic uh crisis and the international domestic uh crisis and the international domestic uh crisis and the international crisis are about to come together. And crisis are about to come together. And crisis are about to come together. And as I told my research team in the summer as I told my research team in the summer as I told my research team in the summer of 2024 and talks I gave in Chicago, my of 2024 and talks I gave in Chicago, my of 2024 and talks I gave in Chicago, my nightmare, they asked me what my nightmare, they asked me what my nightmare, they asked me what my nightmare scenario was. This was in the nightmare scenario was. This was in the nightmare scenario was. This was in the fall of 2024. And I said, "My nightmare fall of 2024. And I said, "My nightmare fall of 2024. And I said, "My nightmare scenario is we have uh an international scenario is we have uh an international scenario is we have uh an international crisis at the same time as we have an crisis at the same time as we have an crisis at the same time as we have an election in the fall of 2024. We really election in the fall of 2024. We really election in the fall of 2024. We really didn't have that. Now we do." And this didn't have that. Now we do." And this didn't have that. Now we do." And this is we're heading into the fall of 2026.

is we're heading into the fall of 2026. is we're heading into the fall of 2026. And this was always my nightmare And this was always my nightmare And this was always my nightmare scenario. scenario. scenario. >> Why? What does that mean? What are those >> Why? What does that mean? What are those >> Why? What does that mean? What are those two things colliding? two things colliding? two things colliding? >> Those two things colliding start to look >> Those two things colliding start to look >> Those two things colliding start to look like the 1960s. like the 1960s. like the 1960s. >> And what happened in the 1960s? the >> And what happened in the 1960s? the >> And what happened in the 1960s? the 1960s, we had mass uh demonstrations. We 1960s, we had mass uh demonstrations. We 1960s, we had mass uh demonstrations. We had anti-war violence, we had anti-war had anti-war violence, we had anti-war had anti-war violence, we had anti-war terrorism with the weather underground, terrorism with the weather underground, terrorism with the weather underground, we had multiple assassinations uh that we had multiple assassinations uh that we had multiple assassinations uh that occurred. Martin Luther King, it was uh occurred. Martin Luther King, it was uh occurred. Martin Luther King, it was uh Bobby Kennedy was assassinated, a Bobby Kennedy was assassinated, a Bobby Kennedy was assassinated, a convention in Chicago, there was just convention in Chicago, there was just convention in Chicago, there was just mass uh demonstration. Mayor Daly in mass uh demonstration. Mayor Daly in mass uh demonstration. Mayor Daly in Chicago gave a shoot to kill order. I Chicago gave a shoot to kill order. I Chicago gave a shoot to kill order. I already mentioned to you the weather already mentioned to you the weather already mentioned to you the weather underground um uh string of bombs that underground um uh string of bombs that underground um uh string of bombs that they set off. So what we faced in the they set off. So what we faced in the they set off. So what we faced in the 1960s was the collision of domestic uh 1960s was the collision of domestic uh 1960s was the collision of domestic uh political tension with an unpopular war. political tension with an unpopular war. political tension with an unpopular war. That's how you got the chaos of the That's how you got the chaos of the That's how you got the chaos of the 1960s. I have a whole chapter in the 1960s. I have a whole chapter in the 1960s. I have a whole chapter in the book about the 1960s and why it was so book about the 1960s and why it was so book about the 1960s and why it was so particularly intense. particularly intense. particularly intense. >> So do you think that Trump is likely to >> So do you think that Trump is likely to >> So do you think that Trump is likely to lose the midterms as things stand? Do lose the midterms as things stand? Do lose the midterms as things stand? Do you think the Republicans are likely to you think the Republicans are likely to you think the Republicans are likely to lose lose lose >> here? Here's here's the thing. If um if >> here? Here's here's the thing. If um if >> here? Here's here's the thing. If um if we have a mass casualty attack, this we have a mass casualty attack, this we have a mass casualty attack, this will increase the odds of Trump uh and will increase the odds of Trump uh and will increase the odds of Trump uh and the Republicans winning in the midterms.

the Republicans winning in the midterms. the Republicans winning in the midterms. And I think if uh we uh have a world And I think if uh we uh have a world And I think if uh we uh have a world economic crisis without the mass economic crisis without the mass economic crisis without the mass casualty attack, uh then I think it's casualty attack, uh then I think it's casualty attack, uh then I think it's likely that the Republicans will lose in likely that the Republicans will lose in likely that the Republicans will lose in the midterms. the midterms. the midterms. >> Okay. So I think we have the reason I >> Okay. So I think we have the reason I >> Okay. So I think we have the reason I can't give you a clean uh answer to this can't give you a clean uh answer to this can't give you a clean uh answer to this which I know people want they they would which I know people want they they would which I know people want they they would because we have multiple specific issues because we have multiple specific issues because we have multiple specific issues here that are now as part of the here that are now as part of the here that are now as part of the spiraling violence spiraling violence spiraling violence >> and three 3 months isn't awful long. >> and three 3 months isn't awful long. >> and three 3 months isn't awful long. >> It's a long time because that mass >> It's a long time because that mass >> It's a long time because that mass casualty attack could happen in in casualty attack could happen in in casualty attack could happen in in October and it doesn't have to be October and it doesn't have to be October and it doesn't have to be command directed by Iran. It can be it command directed by Iran. It can be it command directed by Iran. It can be it can occur the mass casualty attack can occur the mass casualty attack can occur the mass casualty attack against Americans uh can occur because against Americans uh can occur because against Americans uh can occur because it's an inspired attack. The Iran the it's an inspired attack. The Iran the it's an inspired attack. The Iran the the supreme leader is issuing statements the supreme leader is issuing statements the supreme leader is issuing statements that sound almost like Baghdadi that was that sound almost like Baghdadi that was that sound almost like Baghdadi that was the leader of ISIS issuing statements to the leader of ISIS issuing statements to the leader of ISIS issuing statements to encourage inspired attacks. That was the encourage inspired attacks. That was the encourage inspired attacks. That was the suicide uh attacks in Paris in November suicide uh attacks in Paris in November suicide uh attacks in Paris in November 2015 that killed over a hundred people.

2015 that killed over a hundred people. 2015 that killed over a hundred people. That was San Bernardino. So we we we saw That was San Bernardino. So we we we saw That was San Bernardino. So we we we saw leaders inspire attacks before and the leaders inspire attacks before and the leaders inspire attacks before and the Supreme Leader statements are just are Supreme Leader statements are just are Supreme Leader statements are just are eerily close to the same words. eerily close to the same words. eerily close to the same words. Is the current US air campaign Is the current US air campaign Is the current US air campaign sustainable? You hinted at this earlier sustainable? You hinted at this earlier sustainable? You hinted at this earlier on that actually the US might be running on that actually the US might be running on that actually the US might be running out of some of their their weapons. Um, out of some of their their weapons. Um, out of some of their their weapons. Um, it's estimated that the daily cost of it's estimated that the daily cost of it's estimated that the daily cost of this this war for America is around $2 this this war for America is around $2 this this war for America is around $2 billion a day and Iran's ability to billion a day and Iran's ability to billion a day and Iran's ability to continue these sort of asymmetric continue these sort of asymmetric continue these sort of asymmetric attacks with drones and other things attacks with drones and other things attacks with drones and other things >> doesn't come as at such a high cost and >> doesn't come as at such a high cost and >> doesn't come as at such a high cost and seems from the example you gave with the seems from the example you gave with the seems from the example you gave with the bowl earlier on to be more sustainable. bowl earlier on to be more sustainable. bowl earlier on to be more sustainable. So, is there actually a risk here that So, is there actually a risk here that So, is there actually a risk here that the US will run out of weapons? Um, I the US will run out of weapons? Um, I the US will run out of weapons? Um, I think that there's a risk we'll run out think that there's a risk we'll run out think that there's a risk we'll run out of interceptors to shoot down missiles, of interceptors to shoot down missiles, of interceptors to shoot down missiles, but even that's pretty low because but even that's pretty low because but even that's pretty low because what's really happening in our arsenal what's really happening in our arsenal what's really happening in our arsenal of weapons, Stephen, is we are using a of weapons, Stephen, is we are using a of weapons, Stephen, is we are using a lot of interceptor, especially say lot of interceptor, especially say lot of interceptor, especially say Patriot missile interceptors to shoot Patriot missile interceptors to shoot Patriot missile interceptors to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles, but down incoming ballistic missiles, but down incoming ballistic missiles, but we're drawing from stocks um in Asia and we're drawing from stocks um in Asia and we're drawing from stocks um in Asia and in Europe. This is one of the reasons in Europe. This is one of the reasons in Europe. This is one of the reasons Zalinsky can't get Patriot missiles, uh, Zalinsky can't get Patriot missiles, uh, Zalinsky can't get Patriot missiles, uh, at least not very many of them. It's at least not very many of them. It's at least not very many of them. It's because we're now moving most of the because we're now moving most of the because we're now moving most of the stocks here for the Persian Gulf. So, I stocks here for the Persian Gulf. So, I stocks here for the Persian Gulf. So, I think that there's some chance we'll run think that there's some chance we'll run think that there's some chance we'll run out of the, uh, those interceptors, but out of the, uh, those interceptors, but out of the, uh, those interceptors, but even there, I think it's low. But even there, I think it's low. But even there, I think it's low. But literally, in terms of the bombs, it's

literally, in terms of the bombs, it's literally, in terms of the bombs, it's it's an gross exaggeration to expect it's an gross exaggeration to expect it's an gross exaggeration to expect that uh, we are going to run out of that uh, we are going to run out of that uh, we are going to run out of bombs to drop from aircraft. And there's bombs to drop from aircraft. And there's bombs to drop from aircraft. And there's two reasons for that. In order to make a two reasons for that. In order to make a two reasons for that. In order to make a precision bomb, most people don't know precision bomb, most people don't know precision bomb, most people don't know what it takes these days. And it's true, what it takes these days. And it's true, what it takes these days. And it's true, we can spend a lot of money making a we can spend a lot of money making a we can spend a lot of money making a precision bomb, but we can literally precision bomb, but we can literally precision bomb, but we can literally take dumb bombs, 500 lb dumb bombs, and take dumb bombs, 500 lb dumb bombs, and take dumb bombs, 500 lb dumb bombs, and strap a backpack on them that will uh strap a backpack on them that will uh strap a backpack on them that will uh connect with GPS and have little uh connect with GPS and have little uh connect with GPS and have little uh cords to the fins of the bombs in order cords to the fins of the bombs in order cords to the fins of the bombs in order to turn a dumb bomb into a precision to turn a dumb bomb into a precision to turn a dumb bomb into a precision bomb. Those fanny packs are about 20,000 bomb. Those fanny packs are about 20,000 bomb. Those fanny packs are about 20,000 bucks, maybe 25. So, we can make them bucks, maybe 25. So, we can make them bucks, maybe 25. So, we can make them much more easily than people think. much more easily than people think. much more easily than people think. >> So, what do you think the United >> So, what do you think the United >> So, what do you think the United States/Trump's States/Trump's States/Trump's objective is at this particular point? objective is at this particular point? objective is at this particular point? Like, what is the goal? The the real Like, what is the goal? The the real Like, what is the goal? The the real goal? Cuz there's lots of press goal? Cuz there's lots of press goal? Cuz there's lots of press conferences I see where they say it's conferences I see where they say it's conferences I see where they say it's nuclear weapons, it's this, that, and nuclear weapons, it's this, that, and nuclear weapons, it's this, that, and the other. I the other. I the other. I >> I think President Trump's goal between >> I think President Trump's goal between >> I think President Trump's goal between now and the midterms is very simple. A now and the midterms is very simple. A now and the midterms is very simple. A symbolic victory.

symbolic victory. symbolic victory. >> And what would that look like? That >> And what would that look like? That >> And what would that look like? That would look like a victory that would would look like a victory that would would look like a victory that would hold for uh a week, maybe two weeks, and hold for uh a week, maybe two weeks, and hold for uh a week, maybe two weeks, and that would be uh an opportunity to show that would be uh an opportunity to show that would be uh an opportunity to show that President Trump fought back. I that President Trump fought back. I that President Trump fought back. I think that's how this would be framed by think that's how this would be framed by think that's how this would be framed by uh uh President Trump's supporters and uh uh President Trump's supporters and uh uh President Trump's supporters and those who support the war. And it would those who support the war. And it would those who support the war. And it would be uh I think President Trump would say, be uh I think President Trump would say, be uh I think President Trump would say, "And this shows what we can do if you "And this shows what we can do if you "And this shows what we can do if you let us win." let us win." let us win." I think his words would be a little I think his words would be a little I think his words would be a little different. different. different. >> Do you think he's stuck? Yes. >> Do you think he's stuck? Yes. >> Do you think he's stuck? Yes. >> Do you think he knows he's stuck? >> Do you think he knows he's stuck? >> Do you think he knows he's stuck? >> I've never met President Trump. Um, my >> I've never met President Trump. Um, my >> I've never met President Trump. Um, my research here, Stephen, has always research here, Stephen, has always research here, Stephen, has always looked at the actual words by decision looked at the actual words by decision looked at the actual words by decision makers. What I can tell you is what his makers. What I can tell you is what his makers. What I can tell you is what his incentives look like. And the incentives incentives look like. And the incentives incentives look like. And the incentives that I've laid out have been quite that I've laid out have been quite that I've laid out have been quite predictive of his behavior. predictive of his behavior. predictive of his behavior. >> Do you want him to call you? >> Do you want him to call you? >> Do you want him to call you? >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> And if he calls you, what is the advice >> And if he calls you, what is the advice >> And if he calls you, what is the advice you would give him on what to do next? you would give him on what to do next? you would give him on what to do next? Uh what I would do is try to design a Uh what I would do is try to design a Uh what I would do is try to design a several year strategy to build a better several year strategy to build a better several year strategy to build a better balance of power in the region that we balance of power in the region that we balance of power in the region that we could over a period of time uh stabilize could over a period of time uh stabilize could over a period of time uh stabilize the world and stabilize the region. And the world and stabilize the region. And the world and stabilize the region. And I think that is the big issue that's I think that is the big issue that's I think that is the big issue that's being missed right now.

being missed right now. being missed right now. >> But if he says, "Listen, Robert, what do >> But if he says, "Listen, Robert, what do >> But if he says, "Listen, Robert, what do I do in the next three months because I do in the next three months because I do in the next three months because I've got these midterms coming up?" I've got these midterms coming up?" I've got these midterms coming up?" >> Then the answer is don't call me. >> Then the answer is don't call me. >> Then the answer is don't call me. I I want to help President Trump, but I I I want to help President Trump, but I I I want to help President Trump, but I want to help America for real. Uh these want to help America for real. Uh these want to help America for real. Uh these are not necessarily at odds, but the are not necessarily at odds, but the are not necessarily at odds, but the bottom line here is that um everything I bottom line here is that um everything I bottom line here is that um everything I have to say to President Trump about the have to say to President Trump about the have to say to President Trump about the next 3 months, we've just done on this next 3 months, we've just done on this next 3 months, we've just done on this podcast, Stephen. Um, but I am podcast, Stephen. Um, but I am podcast, Stephen. Um, but I am absolutely delighted to talk about how absolutely delighted to talk about how absolutely delighted to talk about how to actually build a more secure future to actually build a more secure future to actually build a more secure future for America and for the Gulf. And I just for America and for the Gulf. And I just for America and for the Gulf. And I just don't think that's that's happening. And don't think that's that's happening. And don't think that's that's happening. And I don't think the uh the pressure that I don't think the uh the pressure that I don't think the uh the pressure that this must lead to an electoral victory this must lead to an electoral victory this must lead to an electoral victory for President Trump is likely to uh uh for President Trump is likely to uh uh for President Trump is likely to uh uh make the the the true security for make the the the true security for make the the the true security for America and the Gulf more likely. In America and the Gulf more likely. In America and the Gulf more likely. In fact, it's going to go the other way fact, it's going to go the other way fact, it's going to go the other way around. It will encourage the escalation around. It will encourage the escalation around. It will encourage the escalation trap. So, that's why I'm I am I'm stuck trap. So, that's why I'm I am I'm stuck trap. So, that's why I'm I am I'm stuck by my own logic of the escalation trap by my own logic of the escalation trap by my own logic of the escalation trap uh here. It's literally um we we have to uh here. It's literally um we we have to uh here. It's literally um we we have to move past the idea that uh the only move past the idea that uh the only move past the idea that uh the only acceptable option is an option that acceptable option is an option that acceptable option is an option that guarantees guarantees guarantees um political success for an individual um political success for an individual um political success for an individual even if it means the president of the even if it means the president of the even if it means the president of the United States.

United States. United States. >> What do you think Russia and China >> What do you think Russia and China >> What do you think Russia and China who are often positioned as adversaries who are often positioned as adversaries who are often positioned as adversaries of the United States? What do you think of the United States? What do you think of the United States? What do you think they're thinking right now? And what do they're thinking right now? And what do they're thinking right now? And what do they what do they want to happen? You they what do they want to happen? You they what do they want to happen? You know, I guess China's being hurt by the know, I guess China's being hurt by the know, I guess China's being hurt by the oil situation. Russia's got their own oil situation. Russia's got their own oil situation. Russia's got their own situation going on with the Ukraine. situation going on with the Ukraine. situation going on with the Ukraine. What are they thinking? What are they thinking? What are they thinking? >> Uh I think China does not want there to >> Uh I think China does not want there to >> Uh I think China does not want there to be global instability. Uh but at the be global instability. Uh but at the be global instability. Uh but at the same time, they don't want this to be uh same time, they don't want this to be uh same time, they don't want this to be uh a situation where Iran comes out a situation where Iran comes out a situation where Iran comes out smashed. I think that is um uh that's smashed. I think that is um uh that's smashed. I think that is um uh that's that's simply not in the cart. I also that's simply not in the cart. I also that's simply not in the cart. I also don't think China is going to insert don't think China is going to insert don't think China is going to insert itself in a very forceful way. I think itself in a very forceful way. I think itself in a very forceful way. I think the idea that Iran might come out and the idea that Iran might come out and the idea that Iran might come out and militarily support the United States militarily support the United States militarily support the United States here or militarily support with its own here or militarily support with its own here or militarily support with its own forces Iran is not likely to happen. So forces Iran is not likely to happen. So forces Iran is not likely to happen. So I think that what you were I think that what you were I think that what you were >> Why don't they want Iran smashed to >> Why don't they want Iran smashed to >> Why don't they want Iran smashed to China? China? China? >> For President Xi um he explained quite a >> For President Xi um he explained quite a >> For President Xi um he explained quite a bit of this at the summit. He said to bit of this at the summit. He said to bit of this at the summit. He said to President Trump, "You're a declining President Trump, "You're a declining President Trump, "You're a declining power. Are you going to uh fall into power. Are you going to uh fall into power. Are you going to uh fall into what he called the Thusidity trap?

what he called the Thusidity trap? what he called the Thusidity trap? Meaning, are you going to launch a Meaning, are you going to launch a Meaning, are you going to launch a preventive war against China in Asia? preventive war against China in Asia? preventive war against China in Asia? And that's what President Xi said. And that's what President Xi said. And that's what President Xi said. >> What about Russia? >> What about Russia? >> What about Russia? >> What Russia is seeing is an opportunity >> What Russia is seeing is an opportunity >> What Russia is seeing is an opportunity to squeeze Europe economically. to squeeze Europe economically. to squeeze Europe economically. Uh so I believe that what has been Uh so I believe that what has been Uh so I believe that what has been happening in the last few weeks here, happening in the last few weeks here, happening in the last few weeks here, the last month is that Ukraine has the last month is that Ukraine has the last month is that Ukraine has actually been gaining actually been gaining actually been gaining uh uh not just strength with drones but uh uh not just strength with drones but uh uh not just strength with drones but in a specific area called Crimea in uh in a specific area called Crimea in uh in a specific area called Crimea in uh which uh Russia took and Putin took in which uh Russia took and Putin took in which uh Russia took and Putin took in 2014. There's been a mass exodus out of 2014. There's been a mass exodus out of 2014. There's been a mass exodus out of Crimea in the last weeks. Crimea in the last weeks. Crimea in the last weeks. Ukraine is putting more and more Ukraine is putting more and more Ukraine is putting more and more pressure on the supply lines coming into pressure on the supply lines coming into pressure on the supply lines coming into Crimea and also coming into Ukraine from Crimea and also coming into Ukraine from Crimea and also coming into Ukraine from Russia. And what Putin, I think, is uh Russia. And what Putin, I think, is uh Russia. And what Putin, I think, is uh is is uh wants to have happen is that um is is uh wants to have happen is that um is is uh wants to have happen is that um he will likely escalate more, put more he will likely escalate more, put more he will likely escalate more, put more pressure on Europe at exactly the time pressure on Europe at exactly the time pressure on Europe at exactly the time in the fall when the world economic in the fall when the world economic in the fall when the world economic crisis is growing because of Iran. And crisis is growing because of Iran. And crisis is growing because of Iran. And that is going to squeeze Europe, make it that is going to squeeze Europe, make it that is going to squeeze Europe, make it hard for Europe to fulfill the hard for Europe to fulfill the hard for Europe to fulfill the commitment they just made to uh Zalinsky commitment they just made to uh Zalinsky commitment they just made to uh Zalinsky of 80 billion more dollars. I guess my of 80 billion more dollars. I guess my of 80 billion more dollars. I guess my my last question then before I go to the my last question then before I go to the my last question then before I go to the diary is um if you were to predict how diary is um if you were to predict how diary is um if you were to predict how the next couple of months play out, what

the next couple of months play out, what the next couple of months play out, what would your prediction be? And this is a would your prediction be? And this is a would your prediction be? And this is a on a on probability 51% probability of on a on probability 51% probability of on a on probability 51% probability of outcomes. What happens next? I I think outcomes. What happens next? I I think outcomes. What happens next? I I think we're going to uh in the next few months we're going to uh in the next few months we're going to uh in the next few months cross the threshold with ground cross the threshold with ground cross the threshold with ground operations into either one of the operations into either one of the operations into either one of the islands or part of the coast of Iran islands or part of the coast of Iran islands or part of the coast of Iran because the world economic crisis is because the world economic crisis is because the world economic crisis is going to grow. The price of gasoline in going to grow. The price of gasoline in going to grow. The price of gasoline in the United States is likely to grow and the United States is likely to grow and the United States is likely to grow and President Trump is going to be even more President Trump is going to be even more President Trump is going to be even more desperate to try to find a way to look desperate to try to find a way to look desperate to try to find a way to look make it at least appear as if he has a make it at least appear as if he has a make it at least appear as if he has a plan to open hormones. It may not be plan to open hormones. It may not be plan to open hormones. It may not be real. It may only be symbolic. But I real. It may only be symbolic. But I real. It may only be symbolic. But I think Stephen that the uh where we are think Stephen that the uh where we are think Stephen that the uh where we are heading is um uh the more the crisis the heading is um uh the more the crisis the heading is um uh the more the crisis the world economic crisis increases and if world economic crisis increases and if world economic crisis increases and if there's a mass casualty attack the more there's a mass casualty attack the more there's a mass casualty attack the more that crisis increases the more President that crisis increases the more President that crisis increases the more President Trump is under pressure to demonstrate Trump is under pressure to demonstrate Trump is under pressure to demonstrate he has a way to open hormuz even if it's he has a way to open hormuz even if it's he has a way to open hormuz even if it's far off and he needs a down payment on far off and he needs a down payment on far off and he needs a down payment on that. He needs something to show that. He needs something to show that. He needs something to show tangibly and I think that's where the tangibly and I think that's where the tangibly and I think that's where the pressure will come from for crossing pressure will come from for crossing pressure will come from for crossing into stage three.

into stage three. into stage three. >> I think it's worth saying in these >> I think it's worth saying in these >> I think it's worth saying in these conversations as well that there are 90 conversations as well that there are 90 conversations as well that there are 90 plus million Iranians who currently live plus million Iranians who currently live plus million Iranians who currently live in Iran and who are caught in the midst in Iran and who are caught in the midst in Iran and who are caught in the midst of this craziness and chaos. And of this craziness and chaos. And of this craziness and chaos. And sometimes in these conversations we kind sometimes in these conversations we kind sometimes in these conversations we kind of don't really think about the fact of don't really think about the fact of don't really think about the fact that there's a nation that's just bigger that there's a nation that's just bigger that there's a nation that's just bigger than the nation I come from, the United than the nation I come from, the United than the nation I come from, the United Kingdom, who are right in the heart of Kingdom, who are right in the heart of Kingdom, who are right in the heart of this. And so every time Trump says he's this. And so every time Trump says he's this. And so every time Trump says he's bombed more people over the weekends or bombed more people over the weekends or bombed more people over the weekends or he's firing bombs, I always think about he's firing bombs, I always think about he's firing bombs, I always think about the the real families that are caught the the real families that are caught the the real families that are caught right in in the midst of all of this right in in the midst of all of this right in in the midst of all of this that didn't choose this war that are that didn't choose this war that are that didn't choose this war that are living in an environment where bombs are living in an environment where bombs are living in an environment where bombs are dropping on their heads. And I think for dropping on their heads. And I think for dropping on their heads. And I think for everybody all around the world that everybody all around the world that everybody all around the world that listen to this show, whether you're in listen to this show, whether you're in listen to this show, whether you're in the UK or the United States or Australia the UK or the United States or Australia the UK or the United States or Australia or Canada or wherever you are, South or Canada or wherever you are, South or Canada or wherever you are, South America, Asia, wherever, Africa, it's America, Asia, wherever, Africa, it's America, Asia, wherever, Africa, it's worth taking a second just to imagine worth taking a second just to imagine worth taking a second just to imagine what it would be like to know that the what it would be like to know that the what it would be like to know that the United States are dropping lots of bombs United States are dropping lots of bombs United States are dropping lots of bombs on the nation in which you live and how on the nation in which you live and how on the nation in which you live and how that would feel psychologically, how that would feel psychologically, how that would feel psychologically, how that would feel for your children, how that would feel for your children, how that would feel for your children, how that would feel for for you yourself, that would feel for for you yourself, that would feel for for you yourself, how that would impact your day-to-day how that would impact your day-to-day how that would impact your day-to-day life. And also I guess the uncertainty life. And also I guess the uncertainty life. And also I guess the uncertainty of not knowing when it's going to end, of not knowing when it's going to end, of not knowing when it's going to end, if it's going to end, and also hearing if it's going to end, and also hearing if it's going to end, and also hearing this term escalation trap and thinking this term escalation trap and thinking this term escalation trap and thinking that you know this is actually going to that you know this is actually going to that you know this is actually going to escalate and troops are going to come escalate and troops are going to come escalate and troops are going to come into my country. And so there's a real into my country. And so there's a real into my country. And so there's a real human cost to this which sometimes we human cost to this which sometimes we human cost to this which sometimes we leave out of these conversations.

leave out of these conversations. leave out of these conversations. >> And I have students um uh and at the >> And I have students um uh and at the >> And I have students um uh and at the University of Chicago who um are University of Chicago who um are University of Chicago who um are Iranian, they have families in Iran uh Iranian, they have families in Iran uh Iranian, they have families in Iran uh and they ask me questions about this all and they ask me questions about this all and they ask me questions about this all the time. And sadly, what I have to tell the time. And sadly, what I have to tell the time. And sadly, what I have to tell them is that real hope for the Iranian them is that real hope for the Iranian them is that real hope for the Iranian people is 5 or 10 years away. And as people is 5 or 10 years away. And as people is 5 or 10 years away. And as this war escalates, it pushes closer to this war escalates, it pushes closer to this war escalates, it pushes closer to 10 than five. 10 than five. 10 than five. We have a closing tradition on this We have a closing tradition on this We have a closing tradition on this podcast where the last guest leaves a podcast where the last guest leaves a podcast where the last guest leaves a question for the next. The question left question for the next. The question left question for the next. The question left for you is if you could go back to a for you is if you could go back to a for you is if you could go back to a certain time and see something occur or certain time and see something occur or certain time and see something occur or ask someone something you've always ask someone something you've always ask someone something you've always wondered about, what slash who would wondered about, what slash who would wondered about, what slash who would that person slash place be and why? that person slash place be and why? that person slash place be and why? >> I think the key person I would ask would >> I think the key person I would ask would >> I think the key person I would ask would be uh Franklin Delanor Roosevelt. He be uh Franklin Delanor Roosevelt. He be uh Franklin Delanor Roosevelt. He died before we dropped the atomic bombs. died before we dropped the atomic bombs. died before we dropped the atomic bombs. I would want to know from him when he I would want to know from him when he I would want to know from him when he was developing uh and supporting the was developing uh and supporting the was developing uh and supporting the atomic bombs. Did he imagine the world atomic bombs. Did he imagine the world atomic bombs. Did he imagine the world that would be created by the atomic that would be created by the atomic that would be created by the atomic bombs? Because in my lifetime, war has bombs? Because in my lifetime, war has bombs? Because in my lifetime, war has been a defining feature of my work. Uh been a defining feature of my work. Uh been a defining feature of my work. Uh but uh the uh the prospects of of but uh the uh the prospects of of but uh the uh the prospects of of nuclear war have always overhung quite a nuclear war have always overhung quite a nuclear war have always overhung quite a bit of our work. We never want to get to bit of our work. We never want to get to bit of our work. We never want to get to anything like that. But I'd like to know

anything like that. But I'd like to know anything like that. But I'd like to know from the person who had the most from the person who had the most from the person who had the most authority power uh in order to make that authority power uh in order to make that authority power uh in order to make that future happen who never even saw it, future happen who never even saw it, future happen who never even saw it, didn't even see it happen, but knew it didn't even see it happen, but knew it didn't even see it happen, but knew it was coming. I'd like to know from him was coming. I'd like to know from him was coming. I'd like to know from him what did he think was truly going to what did he think was truly going to what did he think was truly going to come because I think that this would be come because I think that this would be come because I think that this would be uh uh extremely useful to know whether uh uh extremely useful to know whether uh uh extremely useful to know whether or not our leaders truly truly how far or not our leaders truly truly how far or not our leaders truly truly how far out they can really see and understand out they can really see and understand out they can really see and understand how much their decisions today shape the how much their decisions today shape the how much their decisions today shape the world for decades to come. world for decades to come. world for decades to come. >> Robert, thank you. Um we're very excited >> Robert, thank you. Um we're very excited >> Robert, thank you. Um we're very excited for your book September 22nd. So, do we for your book September 22nd. So, do we for your book September 22nd. So, do we have a pre-order link yet? It's just up. have a pre-order link yet? It's just up. have a pre-order link yet? It's just up. Actually, literally, it's just up. So, Actually, literally, it's just up. So, Actually, literally, it's just up. So, yes, yes, yes, >> I have to say when we first sat down, >> I have to say when we first sat down, >> I have to say when we first sat down, you said a bunch of things in terms of you said a bunch of things in terms of you said a bunch of things in terms of what would happen next. And I'm not sure what would happen next. And I'm not sure what would happen next. And I'm not sure I believed them all I believed them all I believed them all >> because I don't know anything about war >> because I don't know anything about war >> because I don't know anything about war and they and you never really think and they and you never really think and they and you never really think about the psychology changes both at about the psychology changes both at about the psychology changes both at home, but also where the bombs are home, but also where the bombs are home, but also where the bombs are dropping. And it does appear that you've dropping. And it does appear that you've dropping. And it does appear that you've been largely correct about what you what been largely correct about what you what been largely correct about what you what you said would happen. this escalation you said would happen. this escalation you said would happen. this escalation that happens across all wars that has that happens across all wars that has that happens across all wars that has happened also in Ukraine and Russia at happened also in Ukraine and Russia at happened also in Ukraine and Russia at the same time but now we're seeing play the same time but now we're seeing play the same time but now we're seeing play out in Iran. So I have to give you your out in Iran. So I have to give you your out in Iran. So I have to give you your credit because you have been credit because you have been credit because you have been unfortunately you've been right I should unfortunately you've been right I should unfortunately you've been right I should say I would agree with the word say I would agree with the word say I would agree with the word unfortunately. So, this is uh um part of unfortunately. So, this is uh um part of unfortunately. So, this is uh um part of me would like to be happy about this, me would like to be happy about this, me would like to be happy about this, but the truth is uh and this is what I but the truth is uh and this is what I but the truth is uh and this is what I just was talking to my 97year-old just was talking to my 97year-old just was talking to my 97year-old mother-in-law about is um uh I told her

mother-in-law about is um uh I told her mother-in-law about is um uh I told her that you had invited me again. She's 97 that you had invited me again. She's 97 that you had invited me again. She's 97 years old, can't even get out of bed, years old, can't even get out of bed, years old, can't even get out of bed, Stephen. And I told her that um it was Stephen. And I told her that um it was Stephen. And I told her that um it was it was one of the the saddest things I it was one of the the saddest things I it was one of the the saddest things I had to agree to. And it's because of had to agree to. And it's because of had to agree to. And it's because of what it really means. The reason you're what it really means. The reason you're what it really means. The reason you're having me here is because things are bad having me here is because things are bad having me here is because things are bad for our country and I want nothing more for our country and I want nothing more for our country and I want nothing more than for things to be better for our than for things to be better for our than for things to be better for our country. country. country. >> Well, Robert, thank you so much for >> Well, Robert, thank you so much for >> Well, Robert, thank you so much for coming back and um you know, if we do coming back and um you know, if we do coming back and um you know, if we do come back again and convene, I hope next come back again and convene, I hope next come back again and convene, I hope next time it's on better times because we're time it's on better times because we're time it's on better times because we're analyzing how it all resulted in peace analyzing how it all resulted in peace analyzing how it all resulted in peace for everybody, especially the people for everybody, especially the people for everybody, especially the people that are living and around right now. that are living and around right now. that are living and around right now. >> Robert, thank you. >> Robert, thank you. >> Robert, thank you. >> Thank you. >> Thank you. >> Thank you. >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly what video you where they know exactly what video you where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next based on AI and would like to watch next based on AI and would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior. And the all of your viewing behavior. And the all of your viewing behavior. And the algorithm says that this video is the algorithm says that this video is the algorithm says that this video is the perfect video for you. It's different perfect video for you. It's different perfect video for you. It's different for everybody looking right now. Check for everybody looking right now. Check for everybody looking right now. Check this video out and I bet you you might this video out and I bet you you might this video out and I bet you you might love it.