Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here!

What advice do you give for the average What advice do you give for the average person that's looking to invest their person that's looking to invest their person that's looking to invest their salary or their wages? salary or their wages? salary or their wages? >> Don't own US stocks. That's a simple >> Don't own US stocks. That's a simple >> Don't own US stocks. That's a simple strategy that you can act on. strategy that you can act on. strategy that you can act on. >> But what about S&P 500? >> But what about S&P 500? >> But what about S&P 500? >> No. >> No. >> No. >> Really? >> Really? >> Really? >> Yeah. And if you have a big position in >> Yeah. And if you have a big position in >> Yeah. And if you have a big position in US technology [music] stock, I US technology [music] stock, I US technology [music] stock, I personally advise would be to sell them personally advise would be to sell them personally advise would be to sell them all. all. all. >> But I'm an investor in SpaceX. >> But I'm an investor in SpaceX. >> But I'm an investor in SpaceX. >> Good luck. SpaceX is such a fabulous uh >> Good luck. SpaceX is such a fabulous uh >> Good luck. SpaceX is such a fabulous uh story, and we can go into that. story, and we can go into that. story, and we can go into that. >> Crypto? >> Crypto? >> Crypto? >> No. >> No. >> No. >> Why? >> Why? >> Why? >> It's an unnecessary piece of nonsense >> It's an unnecessary piece of nonsense >> It's an unnecessary piece of nonsense that facilitates [music] nothing except that facilitates [music] nothing except that facilitates [music] nothing except criminals moving money that they can't criminals moving money that they can't criminals moving money that they can't be seen. be seen. be seen. >> Do you think Bitcoin's going to go to >> Do you think Bitcoin's going to go to >> Do you think Bitcoin's going to go to zero? zero? zero? >> Yes, it will certainly go to zero. >> Yes, it will certainly go to zero. >> Yes, it will certainly go to zero. >> So, how many years have you spent >> So, how many years have you spent >> So, how many years have you spent investing? investing? investing? >> 60 years. >> 60 years. >> 60 years. >> And what's the most amount of money >> And what's the most amount of money >> And what's the most amount of money you've ever managed of other people's you've ever managed of other people's you've ever managed of other people's money? money? money? >> 165 billion. >> 165 billion. >> 165 billion. >> And one of the things you're famous for >> And one of the things you're famous for >> And one of the things you're famous for talking about is this idea of bubbles. talking about is this idea of bubbles. talking about is this idea of bubbles. >> Yes. [music] And bubbles always occur >> Yes. [music] And bubbles always occur >> Yes. [music] And bubbles always occur around the very most important ideas. around the very most important ideas. around the very most important ideas. So, the railroads, everyone could see So, the railroads, everyone could see So, the railroads, everyone could see that it would change the world. The same that it would change the world. The same that it would change the world. The same with the internet. And everyone wanted with the internet. And everyone wanted with the internet. And everyone wanted to put their money in, and so they over to put their money in, and so they over to put their money in, and so they over invested. But this is the problem. invested. But this is the problem. invested. But this is the problem. Eventually, Eventually, Eventually, they burst. And if you look at the great they burst. And if you look at the great they burst. And if you look at the great bubbles breaking of the past, you find bubbles breaking of the past, you find bubbles breaking of the past, you find that it's followed by really tough that it's followed by really tough that it's followed by really tough times, a miserable period for the times, a miserable period for the times, a miserable period for the economy. And the bigger the bubble, the economy. And the bigger the bubble, the economy. And the bigger the bubble, the bigger the burst. And now we're in the bigger the burst. And now we're in the bigger the burst. And now we're in the biggest investment bubble that arguably biggest investment bubble that arguably biggest investment bubble that arguably has ever occurred, AI.

has ever occurred, AI. has ever occurred, AI. >> Are we on the verge of a collapse with >> Are we on the verge of a collapse with >> Are we on the verge of a collapse with AI in the coming years? AI in the coming years? AI in the coming years? >> The next few days, the next few weeks, >> The next few days, the next few weeks, >> The next few days, the next few weeks, [music] the next few months, but [music] the next few months, but [music] the next few months, but certainly the next few years. certainly the next few years. certainly the next few years. >> So, if you're not someone that has a >> So, if you're not someone that has a >> So, if you're not someone that has a huge amount of savings, what kind of huge amount of savings, what kind of huge amount of savings, what kind of strategy should they be adopting when an strategy should they be adopting when an strategy should they be adopting when an economy starts to get bad and there's a economy starts to get bad and there's a economy starts to get bad and there's a economic bubble collapse? economic bubble collapse? economic bubble collapse? >> So, I would go through everything. But >> So, I would go through everything. But >> So, I would go through everything. But you will not receive this advice from you will not receive this advice from you will not receive this advice from investment advisers because they'll lose investment advisers because they'll lose investment advisers because they'll lose a lot of business. a lot of business. a lot of business. >> And would you be thinking about the >> And would you be thinking about the >> And would you be thinking about the country you live in at this moment in country you live in at this moment in country you live in at this moment in time? time? time? >> Absolutely. >> Absolutely. >> Absolutely. >> Is there any countries you wouldn't live >> Is there any countries you wouldn't live >> Is there any countries you wouldn't live in? in? in? >> I think I have to refuse to answer this >> I think I have to refuse to answer this >> I think I have to refuse to answer this on the grounds that it might tend to on the grounds that it might tend to on the grounds that it might tend to incriminate me. incriminate me. incriminate me. >> Oh, okay. So, you're saying don't live >> Oh, okay. So, you're saying don't live >> Oh, okay. So, you're saying don't live in the United States. I've just moved in the United States. I've just moved in the United States. I've just moved here. Why not the United States? >> This is super interesting to me. My team >> This is super interesting to me. My team gave me this report to show me how many gave me this report to show me how many gave me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe. of you that watch this show subscribe. of you that watch this show subscribe. And some of you have told us, according And some of you have told us, according And some of you have told us, according to this, that you are unsubscribed from to this, that you are unsubscribed from to this, that you are unsubscribed from the channel randomly. So, favor to ask the channel randomly. So, favor to ask the channel randomly. So, favor to ask all of you, please could you check right all of you, please could you check right all of you, please could you check right now if you've hit the subscribe button now if you've hit the subscribe button now if you've hit the subscribe button if you are regular viewer of the show if you are regular viewer of the show if you are regular viewer of the show and you like what we do here. We're and you like what we do here. We're and you like what we do here. We're approaching quite a significant landmark approaching quite a significant landmark approaching quite a significant landmark on this show in terms of a subscriber on this show in terms of a subscriber on this show in terms of a subscriber number. So, if there was one simple, number. So, if there was one simple, number. So, if there was one simple, free thing that you could do to help us, free thing that you could do to help us, free thing that you could do to help us, my team, everyone here, keep this show my team, everyone here, keep this show my team, everyone here, keep this show free, to keep it improving year over free, to keep it improving year over free, to keep it improving year over year and week over week, it is just to year and week over week, it is just to year and week over week, it is just to hit that subscribe button and to hit that subscribe button and to hit that subscribe button and to double-check if you've hit it. Only double-check if you've hit it. Only double-check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll ever ask of you.

thing I'll ever ask of you. thing I'll ever ask of you. Do we have a deal? Do we have a deal? Do we have a deal? If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll make sure do. I'll make sure do. I'll make sure every single week, every single month, every single week, every single month, every single week, every single month, we fight harder and harder and harder we fight harder and harder and harder we fight harder and harder and harder and harder to bring you the guests and and harder to bring you the guests and and harder to bring you the guests and conversations that you want to hear. conversations that you want to hear. conversations that you want to hear. I've stayed true to that promise since I've stayed true to that promise since I've stayed true to that promise since the very beginning of The Diary of a the very beginning of The Diary of a the very beginning of The Diary of a CEO, and I will not let you down. Please CEO, and I will not let you down. Please CEO, and I will not let you down. Please help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show. on with the show. on with the show. >> [music] >> Jeremy Grantham. >> Jeremy Grantham. Your firm managed up to 165 billion Your firm managed up to 165 billion Your firm managed up to 165 billion dollars at its peak, what you we call dollars at its peak, what you we call dollars at its peak, what you we call AUM, assets under management. So, you AUM, assets under management. So, you AUM, assets under management. So, you know a lot about money. You know a lot know a lot about money. You know a lot know a lot about money. You know a lot about investing. How do you sort of about investing. How do you sort of about investing. How do you sort of self-define your expertise because you self-define your expertise because you self-define your expertise because you traverse so many different subjects traverse so many different subjects traverse so many different subjects through your work? So, if I said to you, through your work? So, if I said to you, through your work? So, if I said to you, you know, how do you introduce yourself you know, how do you introduce yourself you know, how do you introduce yourself professionally? What is the answer? professionally? What is the answer? professionally? What is the answer? >> I can't think I ever do introduce myself >> I can't think I ever do introduce myself >> I can't think I ever do introduce myself professionally, but I think of myself as professionally, but I think of myself as professionally, but I think of myself as specializing in a longer term horizon specializing in a longer term horizon specializing in a longer term horizon >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> [clears throat] >> [clears throat] >> [clears throat] >> than most people and trying to look at a >> than most people and trying to look at a >> than most people and trying to look at a higher and higher level of abstraction. higher and higher level of abstraction. higher and higher level of abstraction. What is really going on here? What is really going on here? What is really going on here? And what are people missing?

And what are people missing? And what are people missing? I've discovered over decades that humans I've discovered over decades that humans I've discovered over decades that humans are incredibly short-term oriented. are incredibly short-term oriented. are incredibly short-term oriented. And they have an enormous predisposition And they have an enormous predisposition And they have an enormous predisposition to optimism. to optimism. to optimism. They're looking for optimistic news in They're looking for optimistic news in They're looking for optimistic news in everything. They're looking to avoid everything. They're looking to avoid everything. They're looking to avoid unpleasantness. The idea that you can unpleasantness. The idea that you can unpleasantness. The idea that you can have steady compound growth is have steady compound growth is have steady compound growth is ridiculous. One of my few heroes, ridiculous. One of my few heroes, ridiculous. One of my few heroes, Kenneth Boulding, an economist, Kenneth Boulding, an economist, Kenneth Boulding, an economist, he said the only people who think you he said the only people who think you he said the only people who think you can have compound growth on a finite can have compound growth on a finite can have compound growth on a finite planet are madmen and economists. planet are madmen and economists. planet are madmen and economists. Which is so accurate. Economists simply Which is so accurate. Economists simply Which is so accurate. Economists simply believe you can have growth always, and believe you can have growth always, and believe you can have growth always, and everything comes down to just price. everything comes down to just price. everything comes down to just price. >> One of the things you're famous for >> One of the things you're famous for >> One of the things you're famous for talking about is this idea of bubbles, talking about is this idea of bubbles, talking about is this idea of bubbles, and we're living in a moment where and we're living in a moment where and we're living in a moment where everybody's talking about the subject of everybody's talking about the subject of everybody's talking about the subject of artificial intelligence, and everyone's artificial intelligence, and everyone's artificial intelligence, and everyone's getting very excited by it. Some people getting very excited by it. Some people getting very excited by it. Some people are getting very pessimistic about the are getting very pessimistic about the are getting very pessimistic about the impact it'll have on society. I wanted impact it'll have on society. I wanted impact it'll have on society. I wanted to start there because it's a it's an to start there because it's a it's an to start there because it's a it's an area where there is rife optimism on one area where there is rife optimism on one area where there is rife optimism on one side of things, um but there's also a side of things, um but there's also a side of things, um but there's also a lot of money plowing into the market, lot of money plowing into the market, lot of money plowing into the market, which is I I guess in your view making which is I I guess in your view making which is I I guess in your view making things prone to collapse.

things prone to collapse. things prone to collapse. What's your view on artificial What's your view on artificial What's your view on artificial intelligence? You said you're good at intelligence? You said you're good at intelligence? You said you're good at understanding what people are missing. understanding what people are missing. understanding what people are missing. What is it that people are missing? What is it that people are missing? What is it that people are missing? >> Well, first of all, let me say I think >> Well, first of all, let me say I think >> Well, first of all, let me say I think artificial intelligence is artificial intelligence is artificial intelligence is right up there with the railroads. It's right up there with the railroads. It's right up there with the railroads. It's one of the one of the one of the defining great ideas of the last couple defining great ideas of the last couple defining great ideas of the last couple of hundred years. of hundred years. of hundred years. It's going to change everything. And It's going to change everything. And It's going to change everything. And that is critical. If you If you mean to that is critical. If you If you mean to that is critical. If you If you mean to have a bubble, people think that a have a bubble, people think that a have a bubble, people think that a bubble is a mainly because it's a scam, bubble is a mainly because it's a scam, bubble is a mainly because it's a scam, and nothing could be further from the and nothing could be further from the and nothing could be further from the truth. The great bubbles always occur truth. The great bubbles always occur truth. The great bubbles always occur around the very most important ideas. around the very most important ideas. around the very most important ideas. So, the railroads, everyone could see So, the railroads, everyone could see So, the railroads, everyone could see that it would change the world. And that it would change the world. And that it would change the world. And everyone wanted to put their money in, everyone wanted to put their money in, everyone wanted to put their money in, and everybody put their money in. They and everybody put their money in. They and everybody put their money in. They over invested, and even though the over invested, and even though the over invested, and even though the railroads were a spectacularly powerful railroads were a spectacularly powerful railroads were a spectacularly powerful idea, idea, idea, uh the railroads uh collapsed their uh the railroads uh collapsed their uh the railroads uh collapsed their stocks, and everybody lost a ton of stocks, and everybody lost a ton of stocks, and everybody lost a ton of dough. dough. dough. The same with the internet. And then out The same with the internet. And then out The same with the internet. And then out of the wreckage, the railroads changed of the wreckage, the railroads changed of the wreckage, the railroads changed the world, and and the internet changed the world, and and the internet changed the world, and and the internet changed the world. What we have to remember is the world. What we have to remember is the world. What we have to remember is that that that in '99, Amazon went up six or seven in '99, Amazon went up six or seven in '99, Amazon went up six or seven times. In the crash in the tech bubble, times. In the crash in the tech bubble, times. In the crash in the tech bubble, it went down 92%.

it went down 92%. it went down 92%. As I like to say, check it. It's such a As I like to say, check it. It's such a As I like to say, check it. It's such a remarkably large number. And then out of remarkably large number. And then out of remarkably large number. And then out of the wreckage, it inherited the retail the wreckage, it inherited the retail the wreckage, it inherited the retail world. world. world. And uh that's that's how it works. The And uh that's that's how it works. The And uh that's that's how it works. The greater the idea, the more obvious the greater the idea, the more obvious the greater the idea, the more obvious the idea, the more money goes in, and the idea, the more money goes in, and the idea, the more money goes in, and the bigger the bubble, and the bigger the bigger the bubble, and the bigger the bigger the bubble, and the bigger the bust. bust. bust. >> And are we on the verge of a collapse >> And are we on the verge of a collapse >> And are we on the verge of a collapse with AI? When I say verge, I mean over with AI? When I say verge, I mean over with AI? When I say verge, I mean over the coming years. the coming years. the coming years. >> If you look at the data, >> If you look at the data, >> If you look at the data, it would be compatible with history it would be compatible with history it would be compatible with history for the peak to be very soon. Everything for the peak to be very soon. Everything for the peak to be very soon. Everything is in line. This is, I think, the is in line. This is, I think, the is in line. This is, I think, the biggest investment bubble in American biggest investment bubble in American biggest investment bubble in American history. The indicators of pure crazy history. The indicators of pure crazy history. The indicators of pure crazy euphoria, like SpaceX, are all over the euphoria, like SpaceX, are all over the euphoria, like SpaceX, are all over the place. place. place. SpaceX defines as its addressable market SpaceX defines as its addressable market SpaceX defines as its addressable market a quarter of the global GDP. a quarter of the global GDP. a quarter of the global GDP. You know, it talks about endless You know, it talks about endless You know, it talks about endless opportunities mining asteroids. opportunities mining asteroids. opportunities mining asteroids. It will be in 50 years, people and 100 It will be in 50 years, people and 100 It will be in 50 years, people and 100 years, people will look back and tell years, people will look back and tell years, people will look back and tell stories about SpaceX and its prospectus, stories about SpaceX and its prospectus, stories about SpaceX and its prospectus, like they tell stories about the South like they tell stories about the South like they tell stories about the South Sea bubble.

Sea bubble. Sea bubble. You know, an enterprise of such enormous You know, an enterprise of such enormous You know, an enterprise of such enormous value, but it cannot at this time be value, but it cannot at this time be value, but it cannot at this time be revealed. revealed. revealed. >> I want to keep on this train, but for >> I want to keep on this train, but for >> I want to keep on this train, but for the viewers that don't know your the viewers that don't know your the viewers that don't know your experience, we should probably pause and experience, we should probably pause and experience, we should probably pause and just tell them your experience, because just tell them your experience, because just tell them your experience, because that's the reference point, but also that's the reference point, but also that's the reference point, but also also gives you credibility and authority also gives you credibility and authority also gives you credibility and authority to speak to this. What have you done to speak to this. What have you done to speak to this. What have you done with your life? with your life? with your life? >> Well, I got into the >> Well, I got into the >> Well, I got into the investment business in 1968. There were investment business in 1968. There were investment business in 1968. There were very few serious people in the very few serious people in the very few serious people in the investment business. investment business. investment business. There were no mathematical models. There There were no mathematical models. There There were no mathematical models. There were were were the kind of relatively failed sons of the kind of relatively failed sons of the kind of relatively failed sons of rich people who would work for J.P. rich people who would work for J.P. rich people who would work for J.P. Morgan. Morgan. Morgan. And then over the next 10 years, it And then over the next 10 years, it And then over the next 10 years, it began to get a little more serious. T. began to get a little more serious. T. began to get a little more serious. T. Rowe Price introduced the idea of growth Rowe Price introduced the idea of growth Rowe Price introduced the idea of growth stocks. A few of us introduced the idea stocks. A few of us introduced the idea stocks. A few of us introduced the idea of value stocks. of value stocks. of value stocks. And a few years later, at my first firm, And a few years later, at my first firm, And a few years later, at my first firm, Battery March Fee, really introduced the Battery March Fee, really introduced the Battery March Fee, really introduced the idea of small small cap. It hadn't idea of small small cap. It hadn't idea of small small cap. It hadn't existed before that. existed before that. existed before that. >> And for people that don't know, a small >> And for people that don't know, a small >> And for people that don't know, a small cap is investing in smaller companies.

cap is investing in smaller companies. cap is investing in smaller companies. >> Yes. And a value stock is simply one >> Yes. And a value stock is simply one >> Yes. And a value stock is simply one that looks cheap. that looks cheap. that looks cheap. >> Did you invent the index fund? >> Did you invent the index fund? >> Did you invent the index fund? >> There were two or three of us >> There were two or three of us >> There were two or three of us separately. I don't think we knew of separately. I don't think we knew of separately. I don't think we knew of each other. each other. each other. >> How many years have you spent investing? >> How many years have you spent investing? >> How many years have you spent investing? >> Uh 60, approximately. >> Uh 60, approximately. >> Uh 60, approximately. >> 60. And what's the the most amount of >> 60. And what's the the most amount of >> 60. And what's the the most amount of money you've ever managed for other money you've ever managed for other money you've ever managed for other people in a calendar year? people in a calendar year? people in a calendar year? >> Yes, 165 billion. >> Yes, 165 billion. >> Yes, 165 billion. I had a I had a I had a two partners, Mayo and Van Ottalo. two partners, Mayo and Van Ottalo. two partners, Mayo and Van Ottalo. And when the smoke cleared, you know, And when the smoke cleared, you know, And when the smoke cleared, you know, I'd made a lot of money, over a billion I'd made a lot of money, over a billion I'd made a lot of money, over a billion dollars. dollars. dollars. >> Personally? >> Personally? >> Personally? >> Personally. >> Personally. >> Personally. >> And how much >> And how much >> And how much >> And paid tax on all of it. >> And paid tax on all of it. >> And paid tax on all of it. >> Oh, good. >> Oh, good. >> Oh, good. And how And how much money does your And how And how much money does your And how And how much money does your firm still manage today of other firm still manage today of other firm still manage today of other people's money? people's money? people's money? >> It manages 85 billion. >> It manages 85 billion. >> It manages 85 billion. >> 85 billion. So, are you a billionaire? >> 85 billion. So, are you a billionaire? >> 85 billion. So, are you a billionaire? >> I'm generally >> I'm generally >> I'm generally referred to as a billionaire, but that's referred to as a billionaire, but that's referred to as a billionaire, but that's only because they count the money you only because they count the money you only because they count the money you give away. Because I've given over 90% give away. Because I've given over 90% give away. Because I've given over 90% of my billion away to a foundation.

of my billion away to a foundation. of my billion away to a foundation. >> Oh, really? >> Oh, really? >> Oh, really? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> To which foundation? >> To which foundation? >> To which foundation? >> It's called the Grantham Foundation for >> It's called the Grantham Foundation for >> It's called the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment. We the Protection of the Environment. We the Protection of the Environment. We invest a lot of our principal in green invest a lot of our principal in green invest a lot of our principal in green tech tech tech to help combat climate change. to help combat climate change. to help combat climate change. >> And you're 87 years old. >> And you're 87 years old. >> And you're 87 years old. >> And I'm 87 years old. >> And I'm 87 years old. >> And I'm 87 years old. >> You've given 90% of your money away to >> You've given 90% of your money away to >> You've given 90% of your money away to your own foundation that's focused on your own foundation that's focused on your own foundation that's focused on green tech. green tech. green tech. >> Yeah. Maybe 95. Yeah. >> Yeah. Maybe 95. Yeah. >> Yeah. Maybe 95. Yeah. >> Wow. Okay. So, coming back to this point >> Wow. Okay. So, coming back to this point >> Wow. Okay. So, coming back to this point that we were talking about, a lot of that we were talking about, a lot of that we were talking about, a lot of people won't even know what a bubble is. people won't even know what a bubble is. people won't even know what a bubble is. I think you've done a good job of I think you've done a good job of I think you've done a good job of explaining. A bubble is when everyone explaining. A bubble is when everyone explaining. A bubble is when everyone gets excited, they all see something gets excited, they all see something gets excited, they all see something obvious, they plow their money in, their obvious, they plow their money in, their obvious, they plow their money in, their stocks go up, and then if you look at stocks go up, and then if you look at stocks go up, and then if you look at the graph that's in front of you there, the graph that's in front of you there, the graph that's in front of you there, which shows his the history of asset which shows his the history of asset which shows his the history of asset bubbles, eventually there's a big bubbles, eventually there's a big bubbles, eventually there's a big collapse. collapse. collapse. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> And you're saying that we're >> And you're saying that we're >> And you're saying that we're the collapse is on the horizon. the collapse is on the horizon. the collapse is on the horizon. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> And what does that mean for the average >> And what does that mean for the average >> And what does that mean for the average person? person? person? What's going to happen? What's going to happen? What's going to happen? >> What's going to happen is the high >> What's going to happen is the high >> What's going to happen is the high flyers will probably come down a lot. flyers will probably come down a lot. flyers will probably come down a lot. >> The high flyers? >> The high flyers? >> The high flyers? >> The stocks that have gone up the most, >> The stocks that have gone up the most, >> The stocks that have gone up the most, AI and the more exciting stocks with the AI and the more exciting stocks with the AI and the more exciting stocks with the biggest moves biggest moves biggest moves historically historically historically would be expected to come down the most.

would be expected to come down the most. would be expected to come down the most. From these unprecedented levels From these unprecedented levels From these unprecedented levels a 70% decline would not be unexpected. a 70% decline would not be unexpected. a 70% decline would not be unexpected. >> So a 70% decline in the in the stock >> So a 70% decline in the in the stock >> So a 70% decline in the in the stock price? price? price? >> Yeah. And you have to remember the tech >> Yeah. And you have to remember the tech >> Yeah. And you have to remember the tech bubble the Nasdaq, which is an index of bubble the Nasdaq, which is an index of bubble the Nasdaq, which is an index of the growth stocks, came down 82%. the growth stocks, came down 82%. the growth stocks, came down 82%. It is far from unprecedented It is far from unprecedented It is far from unprecedented to have these major declines. And the to have these major declines. And the to have these major declines. And the biggest bubble in history biggest bubble in history biggest bubble in history was in the Japanese stock market in was in the Japanese stock market in was in the Japanese stock market in 1989. Back then Japan seemed to rule the 1989. Back then Japan seemed to rule the 1989. Back then Japan seemed to rule the world, all the technology, all the world, all the technology, all the world, all the technology, all the Toyotas were kicking bottoms in General Toyotas were kicking bottoms in General Toyotas were kicking bottoms in General Motors and so on. Motors and so on. Motors and so on. And everyone bragged about their 12-in And everyone bragged about their 12-in And everyone bragged about their 12-in Sony TV in the kitchen and the quality Sony TV in the kitchen and the quality Sony TV in the kitchen and the quality etc. etc. little things you put on your etc. etc. little things you put on your etc. etc. little things you put on your belt to play music, they were all belt to play music, they were all belt to play music, they were all Japanese. Japanese. Japanese. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> And [clears throat] uh for a second >> And [clears throat] uh for a second >> And [clears throat] uh for a second Japan sold for more than the US Japan sold for more than the US Japan sold for more than the US in '89. in '89. in '89. And it it got to 65 times earnings, And it it got to 65 times earnings, And it it got to 65 times earnings, which which means for every dollar of which which means for every dollar of which which means for every dollar of earnings you have $65 of market value.

earnings you have $65 of market value. earnings you have $65 of market value. And the US And the US And the US went to 35 in the tech bubble of 2000. went to 35 in the tech bubble of 2000. went to 35 in the tech bubble of 2000. You could argue depending on how you do You could argue depending on how you do You could argue depending on how you do it that it's 35 or 40 today, but it's it that it's 35 or 40 today, but it's it that it's 35 or 40 today, but it's not 65. So we have seen a much bigger not 65. So we have seen a much bigger not 65. So we have seen a much bigger bubble in Japan. And what happened? It bubble in Japan. And what happened? It bubble in Japan. And what happened? It went up and up and up went up and up and up went up and up and up and then and then and then it came down for 20 years. it came down for 20 years. it came down for 20 years. >> 20 years? >> 20 years? >> 20 years? >> 20 years. They talk about the lost >> 20 years. They talk about the lost >> 20 years. They talk about the lost decade, but when you look at it closely, decade, but when you look at it closely, decade, but when you look at it closely, it looks more like a lost 20 years. it looks more like a lost 20 years. it looks more like a lost 20 years. >> So, for the average person, what do they >> So, for the average person, what do they >> So, for the average person, what do they feel and how does it impact them when feel and how does it impact them when feel and how does it impact them when there's a market crash like the one that there's a market crash like the one that there's a market crash like the one that you're forecasting? you're forecasting? you're forecasting? >> The high flyers will lay people off and >> The high flyers will lay people off and >> The high flyers will lay people off and and a lot of people will feel less rich. and a lot of people will feel less rich. and a lot of people will feel less rich. And as you acquire And as you acquire And as you acquire uh money in the stock market, uh money in the stock market, uh money in the stock market, a small fraction of that, two or three a small fraction of that, two or three a small fraction of that, two or three percent, percent, percent, is spent. is spent. is spent. And in reverse, And in reverse, And in reverse, it goes back. it goes back. it goes back. And people feel a little bit poorer, And people feel a little bit poorer, And people feel a little bit poorer, they spend a little less. So, the they spend a little less. So, the they spend a little less. So, the economy tends to be under some stress.

economy tends to be under some stress. economy tends to be under some stress. And if you look at the great bubbles And if you look at the great bubbles And if you look at the great bubbles breaking of the past, you find breaking of the past, you find breaking of the past, you find that it's followed by really tough that it's followed by really tough that it's followed by really tough times. 1929 is followed by the Great times. 1929 is followed by the Great times. 1929 is followed by the Great Depression Depression Depression that lasts for several years. Then, of that lasts for several years. Then, of that lasts for several years. Then, of course, there are many other factors course, there are many other factors course, there are many other factors that go into that, but it started with that go into that, but it started with that go into that, but it started with the crash in the market, uh which was in the crash in the market, uh which was in the crash in the market, uh which was in the end down about 80%. the end down about 80%. the end down about 80%. or more. or more. or more. And then the next one was called the And then the next one was called the And then the next one was called the Nifty 50 because it was the 50 great Nifty 50 because it was the 50 great Nifty 50 because it was the 50 great companies like IBM and Coca-Cola. And companies like IBM and Coca-Cola. And companies like IBM and Coca-Cola. And that was in 1972, it peaked. It declined that was in 1972, it peaked. It declined that was in 1972, it peaked. It declined by 65% if you adjust for inflation. The by 65% if you adjust for inflation. The by 65% if you adjust for inflation. The recession associated with that recession associated with that recession associated with that was uh was uh was uh just about the worst just about the worst just about the worst since the depression. since the depression. since the depression. >> So, for the for the average person, what >> So, for the for the average person, what >> So, for the for the average person, what kind of strategy should they be adopting kind of strategy should they be adopting kind of strategy should they be adopting if you if you're not someone that has a if you if you're not someone that has a if you if you're not someone that has a huge amount of savings? Say you're huge amount of savings? Say you're huge amount of savings? Say you're working for one of these big big working for one of these big big working for one of these big big companies, um are there any strategies companies, um are there any strategies companies, um are there any strategies that you should be thinking about now that you should be thinking about now that you should be thinking about now before this before this before this before the markets come down and there before the markets come down and there before the markets come down and there could be a recession?

could be a recession? could be a recession? >> I mean, rule number one is always be >> I mean, rule number one is always be >> I mean, rule number one is always be diversified. diversified. diversified. >> Be di- What does that be diversified >> Be di- What does that be diversified >> Be di- What does that be diversified mean? mean? mean? >> It means hold hold some >> It means hold hold some >> It means hold hold some bonds, hold some cash, bonds, hold some cash, bonds, hold some cash, perhaps a small amount of precious perhaps a small amount of precious perhaps a small amount of precious metals. metals. metals. >> Like gold and silver? >> Like gold and silver? >> Like gold and silver? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> And what is a bond and how do I buy one? >> And what is a bond and how do I buy one? >> And what is a bond and how do I buy one? >> Yeah, a a bond is a loan that carries uh >> Yeah, a a bond is a loan that carries uh >> Yeah, a a bond is a loan that carries uh a fixed interest rate. a fixed interest rate. a fixed interest rate. Let's say today 5%. Let's say today 5%. Let's say today 5%. You invest your money in it and it will You invest your money in it and it will You invest your money in it and it will pay you 5% as long as the pay you 5% as long as the pay you 5% as long as the creditworthiness creditworthiness creditworthiness of uh of uh of uh the other side is there. So, if it's the the other side is there. So, if it's the the other side is there. So, if it's the US government, you'll assume it's pretty US government, you'll assume it's pretty US government, you'll assume it's pretty creditworthy. And you buy a bond from creditworthy. And you buy a bond from creditworthy. And you buy a bond from the US government. It's how the US the US government. It's how the US the US government. It's how the US government funds uh a part of its government funds uh a part of its government funds uh a part of its activities. You can buy a 30-year US activities. You can buy a 30-year US activities. You can buy a 30-year US government bond, a 10-year bond, a government bond, a 10-year bond, a government bond, a 10-year bond, a 2-year bond, a 90-day 2-year bond, a 90-day 2-year bond, a 90-day a Treasury bill they call them when they a Treasury bill they call them when they a Treasury bill they call them when they get that short. get that short. get that short. Everything goes fine, you you receive Everything goes fine, you you receive Everything goes fine, you you receive this modest amount of money. Your 5% or this modest amount of money. Your 5% or this modest amount of money. Your 5% or your 3% depending on the conditions.

your 3% depending on the conditions. your 3% depending on the conditions. >> Okay, so a bond is basically lending the >> Okay, so a bond is basically lending the >> Okay, so a bond is basically lending the government money. government money. government money. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> And if you want to lend the government >> And if you want to lend the government >> And if you want to lend the government money, money, money, >> Or lending a corporation money. >> Or lending a corporation money. >> Or lending a corporation money. >> Okay, so you can also lend like Apple >> Okay, so you can also lend like Apple >> Okay, so you can also lend like Apple money. money. money. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> And I I can go to the government website >> And I I can go to the government website >> And I I can go to the government website or it says I was just reading here. It or it says I was just reading here. It or it says I was just reading here. It says, "If you want to lend money says, "If you want to lend money says, "If you want to lend money directly to the US government, you can directly to the US government, you can directly to the US government, you can bypass Wall Street entirely, go to bypass Wall Street entirely, go to bypass Wall Street entirely, go to treasurydirect.gov. treasurydirect.gov. treasurydirect.gov. You open an account, link your bank, and You open an account, link your bank, and You open an account, link your bank, and purchase directly. You can buy Treasury purchase directly. You can buy Treasury purchase directly. You can buy Treasury bills, notes, bonds, and series one bills, notes, bonds, and series one bills, notes, bonds, and series one savings bonds." savings bonds." savings bonds." You pay exactly face value with no You pay exactly face value with no You pay exactly face value with no commissions or fees and the investment commissions or fees and the investment commissions or fees and the investment is backed by the full faith is backed by the full faith is backed by the full faith of the US government. Or you can buy, of the US government. Or you can buy, of the US government. Or you can buy, you know, like Apple, you can lend Apple you know, like Apple, you can lend Apple you know, like Apple, you can lend Apple money. I didn't even know you could do money. I didn't even know you could do money. I didn't even know you could do this. And you go to any of your major this. And you go to any of your major this. And you go to any of your major brokers like Fidelity or Vanguard or brokers like Fidelity or Vanguard or brokers like Fidelity or Vanguard or probably a lot of the the apps. You probably a lot of the the apps. You probably a lot of the the apps. You navigate to fixed income section on your navigate to fixed income section on your navigate to fixed income section on your account and you can account and you can account and you can see what bonds are being offered and you see what bonds are being offered and you see what bonds are being offered and you can lend them money. can lend them money. can lend them money. >> What you're doing actually, they have >> What you're doing actually, they have >> What you're doing actually, they have distributed it to the market. Uh distributed it to the market. Uh distributed it to the market. Uh and you're acquiring it from one of the and you're acquiring it from one of the and you're acquiring it from one of the existing owners.

existing owners. existing owners. >> Oh, okay. >> Oh, okay. >> Oh, okay. >> actually giving them incremental money. >> actually giving them incremental money. >> actually giving them incremental money. They they come to the market with $10 They they come to the market with $10 They they come to the market with $10 billion billion billion in a particular bond in a particular bond in a particular bond with a particular coupon. It says, "We with a particular coupon. It says, "We with a particular coupon. It says, "We will pay you 3.5%." That's the coupon. will pay you 3.5%." That's the coupon. will pay you 3.5%." That's the coupon. And when you want to buy some of that And when you want to buy some of that And when you want to buy some of that bond, you you go to your broker and he bond, you you go to your broker and he bond, you you go to your broker and he says, "It's no longer selling at the says, "It's no longer selling at the says, "It's no longer selling at the original 100. It's now selling at 92 or original 100. It's now selling at 92 or original 100. It's now selling at 92 or 107." And you you pay that and it 107." And you you pay that and it 107." And you you pay that and it transfers from one owner to you. transfers from one owner to you. transfers from one owner to you. There've been times in 1974 There've been times in 1974 There've been times in 1974 when you could you could get a bond that when you could you could get a bond that when you could you could get a bond that would pay 8, 9, 10%. would pay 8, 9, 10%. would pay 8, 9, 10%. >> Per year? >> Per year? >> Per year? >> Yes, per year. >> Yes, per year. >> Yes, per year. >> So, if I buy a US government 10-year >> So, if I buy a US government 10-year >> So, if I buy a US government 10-year Treasury bond, essentially lending the Treasury bond, essentially lending the Treasury bond, essentially lending the US government money, I can do 4.46% US government money, I can do 4.46% US government money, I can do 4.46% a year. And Apple's current yield on a a year. And Apple's current yield on a a year. And Apple's current yield on a 10-year corporate bond is 4.7% a year. 10-year corporate bond is 4.7% a year. 10-year corporate bond is 4.7% a year. So, almost 5% a year, which means if I So, almost 5% a year, which means if I So, almost 5% a year, which means if I put what $1,000 in, I'll make $475 put what $1,000 in, I'll make $475 put what $1,000 in, I'll make $475 every 10 years. every 10 years. every 10 years. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Every 10 years. >> Every 10 years. >> Every 10 years. >> Mhm.

>> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Interesting. >> Interesting. >> Interesting. I didn't I never really knew how bonds I didn't I never really knew how bonds I didn't I never really knew how bonds work. So, you're saying work. So, you're saying work. So, you're saying market's collapsing, diversify, get some market's collapsing, diversify, get some market's collapsing, diversify, get some money into bonds, get some keep some money into bonds, get some keep some money into bonds, get some keep some money in cash. money in cash. money in cash. And anything else? In terms of And anything else? In terms of And anything else? In terms of diversified portfolio, property? diversified portfolio, property? diversified portfolio, property? >> Uh property is fine, except >> Uh property is fine, except >> Uh property is fine, except it's pretty darn expensive by historical it's pretty darn expensive by historical it's pretty darn expensive by historical standards. They've engineered a standards. They've engineered a standards. They've engineered a situation where house prices tend to situation where house prices tend to situation where house prices tend to rise. rise. rise. Great for the people who have a house Great for the people who have a house Great for the people who have a house and terrible for the people who would and terrible for the people who would and terrible for the people who would like to buy a house. like to buy a house. like to buy a house. Back in '94 in England, Back in '94 in England, Back in '94 in England, a typical house sold for 3.4 times your a typical house sold for 3.4 times your a typical house sold for 3.4 times your family income. family income. family income. That was about as low as it had been for That was about as low as it had been for That was about as low as it had been for 50 years. 50 years. 50 years. And then from '94 until today, And then from '94 until today, And then from '94 until today, um it rose from 3.4 times to over 10 um it rose from 3.4 times to over 10 um it rose from 3.4 times to over 10 times, depending on where you live. times, depending on where you live. times, depending on where you live. And at 10 times income, And at 10 times income, And at 10 times income, a reasonable a reasonable a reasonable young couple young couple young couple are in big trouble. They can't really are in big trouble. They can't really are in big trouble. They can't really afford to buy a house. afford to buy a house. afford to buy a house. And the same high prices are reflected And the same high prices are reflected And the same high prices are reflected in rents.

in rents. in rents. So, they're really squeezed on living So, they're really squeezed on living So, they're really squeezed on living costs. costs. costs. And the same is true, even worse, in And the same is true, even worse, in And the same is true, even worse, in China, in Canada, Australia, China, in Canada, Australia, China, in Canada, Australia, most of Europe. House prices have simply most of Europe. House prices have simply most of Europe. House prices have simply been allowed to go up for the last 30 been allowed to go up for the last 30 been allowed to go up for the last 30 They didn't, you know, traditionally They didn't, you know, traditionally They didn't, you know, traditionally they they traded flat or down 67 of the they they traded flat or down 67 of the they they traded flat or down 67 of the 80 years until 1994 in the UK. But since 80 years until 1994 in the UK. But since 80 years until 1994 in the UK. But since then, then, then, house prices have ridden everywhere. house prices have ridden everywhere. house prices have ridden everywhere. >> So, so do you Are you expecting house >> So, so do you Are you expecting house >> So, so do you Are you expecting house prices to to come down sharply? I I prices to to come down sharply? I I prices to to come down sharply? I I think I heard you say that they might think I heard you say that they might think I heard you say that they might come down 30%. come down 30%. come down 30%. >> Even if they come down 30%, they're >> Even if they come down 30%, they're >> Even if they come down 30%, they're really still very expensive, aren't really still very expensive, aren't really still very expensive, aren't they? That would be they've come down to they? That would be they've come down to they? That would be they've come down to six or seven times family income. They'd six or seven times family income. They'd six or seven times family income. They'd still be twice what they used to be in still be twice what they used to be in still be twice what they used to be in the good old days. the good old days. the good old days. >> So, I've got diversify, I've got reduce >> So, I've got diversify, I've got reduce >> So, I've got diversify, I've got reduce your position. your position. your position. Um there is a probably going to be a bit Um there is a probably going to be a bit Um there is a probably going to be a bit of a job disruption, as well. of a job disruption, as well. of a job disruption, as well. >> And particularly if you have to own >> And particularly if you have to own >> And particularly if you have to own stocks, own them outside America. Don't stocks, own them outside America. Don't stocks, own them outside America. Don't own US stocks.

own US stocks. own US stocks. That's a nice, simple strategy that you That's a nice, simple strategy that you That's a nice, simple strategy that you can act on. can act on. can act on. >> Why? >> Why? >> Why? >> They're much cheaper. >> They're much cheaper. >> They're much cheaper. And since the beginning of last year, And since the beginning of last year, And since the beginning of last year, they have handsomely outperformed the they have handsomely outperformed the they have handsomely outperformed the US. US. US. >> Foreign stocks? >> Foreign stocks? >> Foreign stocks? >> Foreign stocks. Of emerging countries, >> Foreign stocks. Of emerging countries, >> Foreign stocks. Of emerging countries, of European countries, Japan, Canada, of European countries, Japan, Canada, of European countries, Japan, Canada, Australia, and so on. You can find good Australia, and so on. You can find good Australia, and so on. You can find good broad indices. broad indices. broad indices. Um kind of the world ex-US. Um kind of the world ex-US. Um kind of the world ex-US. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> or emerging markets. And uh >> or emerging markets. And uh >> or emerging markets. And uh >> Invest outside of America. >> Invest outside of America. >> Invest outside of America. >> Yeah. I'm sure they'll muddle through >> Yeah. I'm sure they'll muddle through >> Yeah. I'm sure they'll muddle through okay over the next 10 or 20 years. And I okay over the next 10 or 20 years. And I okay over the next 10 or 20 years. And I am not confident that the US will do am not confident that the US will do am not confident that the US will do that. that. that. >> You're not confident in which part? That >> You're not confident in which part? That >> You're not confident in which part? That the US the US the US >> I'm not confident that US equities will >> I'm not confident that US equities will >> I'm not confident that US equities will be intact in 5 years, 10 years. be intact in 5 years, 10 years. be intact in 5 years, 10 years. >> So, US a US equity is a US stock. >> So, US a US equity is a US stock. >> So, US a US equity is a US stock. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Why aren't you confident that they'll be >> Why aren't you confident that they'll be >> Why aren't you confident that they'll be intact in 5 or 10 years? intact in 5 or 10 years? intact in 5 or 10 years? >> Because they're so >> Because they're so >> Because they're so badly overpriced today. badly overpriced today. badly overpriced today. Back in the tech bubble of 2000, Back in the tech bubble of 2000, Back in the tech bubble of 2000, we had a 10-year forecast we had a 10-year forecast we had a 10-year forecast for US equities of minus 2% a year for for US equities of minus 2% a year for for US equities of minus 2% a year for 10 years.

10 years. 10 years. And they came out with minus three. The And they came out with minus three. The And they came out with minus three. The period from 2000 to 2010, you simply period from 2000 to 2010, you simply period from 2000 to 2010, you simply lost money in the US market. 10 years lost money in the US market. 10 years lost money in the US market. 10 years later, you had less money than you later, you had less money than you later, you had less money than you started with. And this is a higher price started with. And this is a higher price started with. And this is a higher price market, I believe, than 2000. market, I believe, than 2000. market, I believe, than 2000. >> So, you think it's going to be even >> So, you think it's going to be even >> So, you think it's going to be even worse? worse? worse? >> In Japan, you went 20 years and you lost >> In Japan, you went 20 years and you lost >> In Japan, you went 20 years and you lost money. You went 30 years and you still money. You went 30 years and you still money. You went 30 years and you still hadn't gotten back. It took 35 years for hadn't gotten back. It took 35 years for hadn't gotten back. It took 35 years for the Japanese market to recover. the Japanese market to recover. the Japanese market to recover. >> So, what are you saying? >> So, what are you saying? >> So, what are you saying? >> What I'm saying is it's quite typical >> What I'm saying is it's quite typical >> What I'm saying is it's quite typical to get beaten around the head in the to get beaten around the head in the to get beaten around the head in the stock market when it becomes crazily stock market when it becomes crazily stock market when it becomes crazily overpriced, as it is today. overpriced, as it is today. overpriced, as it is today. And that it's a very good idea And that it's a very good idea And that it's a very good idea to take some respons- responsibility and to take some respons- responsibility and to take some respons- responsibility and and watch your tail. Now, let me just and watch your tail. Now, let me just and watch your tail. Now, let me just say you will not receive say you will not receive say you will not receive the advice from investment advisers the advice from investment advisers the advice from investment advisers to get your tail out of the market, to get your tail out of the market, to get your tail out of the market, ever. It is not good business for them ever. It is not good business for them ever. It is not good business for them to do that, and they will not ever say to do that, and they will not ever say to do that, and they will not ever say it to you. So, from 1929 onwards, the it to you. So, from 1929 onwards, the it to you. So, from 1929 onwards, the Goldman Sachs's of the world have never Goldman Sachs's of the world have never Goldman Sachs's of the world have never said to you, said to you, said to you, "Get out of the market. It's "Get out of the market. It's "Get out of the market. It's overpriced." Never.

overpriced." Never. overpriced." Never. So, they went through the crash of '29, So, they went through the crash of '29, So, they went through the crash of '29, they went through the crash of the Nifty they went through the crash of the Nifty they went through the crash of the Nifty 50 in '72, 50 in '72, 50 in '72, the crash of 2000 in the tech bubble. the crash of 2000 in the tech bubble. the crash of 2000 in the tech bubble. They never ever say it, because it's bad They never ever say it, because it's bad They never ever say it, because it's bad business. business. business. If you fight If you fight If you fight a bubble, you lose a lot of business. a bubble, you lose a lot of business. a bubble, you lose a lot of business. And because the uncertainty of the And because the uncertainty of the And because the uncertainty of the timing is so great, timing is so great, timing is so great, the client's patience the client's patience the client's patience is shorter than the uncertainty of the is shorter than the uncertainty of the is shorter than the uncertainty of the market. So, sooner or later, you will be market. So, sooner or later, you will be market. So, sooner or later, you will be advising people to be careful. The advising people to be careful. The advising people to be careful. The market will keep going market will keep going market will keep going and going and going like it did in and going and going like it did in and going and going like it did in Japan. Japan. Japan. >> You're saying that the people that >> You're saying that the people that >> You're saying that the people that manage money on a global scale, they manage money on a global scale, they manage money on a global scale, they have no incentive to tell you that the have no incentive to tell you that the have no incentive to tell you that the market's about to collapse because if market's about to collapse because if market's about to collapse because if they did, their clients would would they did, their clients would would they did, their clients would would withdraw their money and they wouldn't withdraw their money and they wouldn't withdraw their money and they wouldn't get their fees for managing that money. get their fees for managing that money. get their fees for managing that money. So, what they do is they they keep So, what they do is they they keep So, what they do is they they keep telling you things are going to be fine telling you things are going to be fine telling you things are going to be fine and optimistic, yeah, but you have to and optimistic, yeah, but you have to and optimistic, yeah, but you have to kind of see through that yourself kind of see through that yourself kind of see through that yourself because they have an incentive structure because they have an incentive structure because they have an incentive structure which isn't aligned with yours which isn't aligned with yours which isn't aligned with yours necessarily. necessarily. necessarily. It may also be the case that those very It may also be the case that those very It may also be the case that those very people who are who understand these people who are who understand these people who are who understand these economic bubbles and cycles, they economic bubbles and cycles, they economic bubbles and cycles, they themselves are adopting a different themselves are adopting a different themselves are adopting a different strategy with their own money.

strategy with their own money. strategy with their own money. But that at the same time, they're But that at the same time, they're But that at the same time, they're probably going to be telling you that probably going to be telling you that probably going to be telling you that everything's going to be great for a everything's going to be great for a everything's going to be great for a long time. long time. long time. >> If you'll allow me to tell a story on >> If you'll allow me to tell a story on >> If you'll allow me to tell a story on this very topic, in the this very topic, in the this very topic, in the 98, 99 98, 99 98, 99 the the tech bubble so-called, the the the tech bubble so-called, the the the tech bubble so-called, the run-up to the top, I I got into a lot of run-up to the top, I I got into a lot of run-up to the top, I I got into a lot of debates with the bulls. I would say it's debates with the bulls. I would say it's debates with the bulls. I would say it's horribly overpriced and they horribly overpriced and they horribly overpriced and they >> What's a bull? >> What's a bull? >> What's a bull? >> A bull is someone who is extremely >> A bull is someone who is extremely >> A bull is someone who is extremely optimistic about the stock market and a optimistic about the stock market and a optimistic about the stock market and a bear someone who is bear someone who is bear someone who is pessimistic or careful about the market. pessimistic or careful about the market. pessimistic or careful about the market. There were 1,200 people in the audience There were 1,200 people in the audience There were 1,200 people in the audience and it was the annual bash and it was the annual bash and it was the annual bash of the Society of Analysts. And I asked of the Society of Analysts. And I asked of the Society of Analysts. And I asked before my turn at the debate, before my turn at the debate, before my turn at the debate, "Please put your hands up if you "Please put your hands up if you "Please put your hands up if you consider yourself a full-time stock consider yourself a full-time stock consider yourself a full-time stock market expert." 400 hands went up. I had market expert." 400 hands went up. I had market expert." 400 hands went up. I had people counting. people counting. people counting. And And And I said, "I've got two questions for you. I said, "I've got two questions for you. I said, "I've got two questions for you. One, One, One, if the market, which is currently 31 if the market, which is currently 31 if the market, which is currently 31 times earnings, times earnings, times earnings, was to go back to a more normal 17 was to go back to a more normal 17 was to go back to a more normal 17 times, times, times, would it guarantee would it guarantee would it guarantee a major bear market if it happened a major bear market if it happened a major bear market if it happened anytime in the next 10 years?"

anytime in the next 10 years?" anytime in the next 10 years?" >> A major down market? >> A major down market? >> A major down market? >> Yes, if it went from what was then 31 >> Yes, if it went from what was then 31 >> Yes, if it went from what was then 31 times times times earnings. earnings. earnings. Every dollar of earnings sold for 31 Every dollar of earnings sold for 31 Every dollar of earnings sold for 31 times in the market. And the And the times in the market. And the And the times in the market. And the And the more normal average was closer 15, 16, more normal average was closer 15, 16, more normal average was closer 15, 16, 17. And I use 17. 17. And I use 17. 17. And I use 17. If it went down to 17 anytime in the If it went down to 17 anytime in the If it went down to 17 anytime in the next 10 years, would it guarantee a next 10 years, would it guarantee a next 10 years, would it guarantee a major bear market? All 400 of them said, major bear market? All 400 of them said, major bear market? All 400 of them said, "Yes, it would. If it happened, it would "Yes, it would. If it happened, it would "Yes, it would. If it happened, it would guarantee a major bear market." And then guarantee a major bear market." And then guarantee a major bear market." And then the second question, of course, was, the second question, of course, was, the second question, of course, was, "And do you think it will happen?" "And do you think it will happen?" "And do you think it will happen?" And less than 1% thought it would not And less than 1% thought it would not And less than 1% thought it would not happen. 99% happen. 99% happen. 99% plus plus plus thought the market would go down, thought the market would go down, thought the market would go down, therefore guaranteeing a major bear therefore guaranteeing a major bear therefore guaranteeing a major bear market. And this was the engine room of market. And this was the engine room of market. And this was the engine room of all the Goldman Sachs and the Morgan all the Goldman Sachs and the Morgan all the Goldman Sachs and the Morgan Stanleys and the JP Morgans, all the Stanleys and the JP Morgans, all the Stanleys and the JP Morgans, all the great investment firms giving advice in great investment firms giving advice in great investment firms giving advice in America. The engine room who worked for America. The engine room who worked for America. The engine room who worked for them, the guys doing the analysis, doing them, the guys doing the analysis, doing them, the guys doing the analysis, doing the work, all believed in data that the work, all believed in data that the work, all believed in data that guaranteed a major bear market, which guaranteed a major bear market, which guaranteed a major bear market, which happened.

happened. happened. But the people who employed them or But the people who employed them or But the people who employed them or represented them from a marketing point represented them from a marketing point represented them from a marketing point of view were on the podium with me of view were on the podium with me of view were on the podium with me saying, "Oh, Jeremy, Jeremy, don't get saying, "Oh, Jeremy, Jeremy, don't get saying, "Oh, Jeremy, Jeremy, don't get excited. We'll muddle through quite excited. We'll muddle through quite excited. We'll muddle through quite nicely." nicely." nicely." It was a huge betrayal of trust, if you It was a huge betrayal of trust, if you It was a huge betrayal of trust, if you wanted to put it that way. wanted to put it that way. wanted to put it that way. >> And do you think that's happening now? >> And do you think that's happening now? >> And do you think that's happening now? >> Of course. Who are the people >> Of course. Who are the people >> Of course. Who are the people representing the great investment firms representing the great investment firms representing the great investment firms telling you to watch out? If you look at telling you to watch out? If you look at telling you to watch out? If you look at the data, you will see the data, you will see the data, you will see over time, it's a series of great waves over time, it's a series of great waves over time, it's a series of great waves in evaluation. in evaluation. in evaluation. >> Like this? >> Like this? >> Like this? >> Like this. And we're not just in one, >> Like this. And we're not just in one, >> Like this. And we're not just in one, but in terms of the US stock market, but in terms of the US stock market, but in terms of the US stock market, we're in the biggest one, arguably, we're in the biggest one, arguably, we're in the biggest one, arguably, that has ever occurred. that has ever occurred. that has ever occurred. The noise to be careful and watch out The noise to be careful and watch out The noise to be careful and watch out and get out of the market and get out of the market and get out of the market is not deafening. In fact, you will hear is not deafening. In fact, you will hear is not deafening. In fact, you will hear nothing. You never have. nothing. You never have. nothing. You never have. You never will. You never will. You never will. It is simply lousy business for a big It is simply lousy business for a big It is simply lousy business for a big firm. I sympathize with them. firm. I sympathize with them. firm. I sympathize with them. I sympathize with them because when we I sympathize with them because when we I sympathize with them because when we did it in '98, '99, we were 2 and 1/4 did it in '98, '99, we were 2 and 1/4 did it in '98, '99, we were 2 and 1/4 years early.

years early. years early. And we lost half our book of business And we lost half our book of business And we lost half our book of business in 2 and 1/4 years. in 2 and 1/4 years. in 2 and 1/4 years. >> Because you were honest with the people >> Because you were honest with the people >> Because you were honest with the people about what was coming. about what was coming. about what was coming. >> Well, through their eyes, we were wrong. >> Well, through their eyes, we were wrong. >> Well, through their eyes, we were wrong. We said, "Watch out, the market is We said, "Watch out, the market is We said, "Watch out, the market is overpriced. It will end badly." overpriced. It will end badly." overpriced. It will end badly." It went up. Therefore, we were wrong, It went up. Therefore, we were wrong, It went up. Therefore, we were wrong, therefore therefore therefore they shoot us. they shoot us. they shoot us. People think People think People think you get shot for underperforming in a you get shot for underperforming in a you get shot for underperforming in a bear market, and that is not really the bear market, and that is not really the bear market, and that is not really the case. In a bear market, everyone case. In a bear market, everyone case. In a bear market, everyone freezes. It's rigor mortis. They wait freezes. It's rigor mortis. They wait freezes. It's rigor mortis. They wait until the market has bottomed out, then until the market has bottomed out, then until the market has bottomed out, then they sit around and start to fire one or they sit around and start to fire one or they sit around and start to fire one or two people for having done worse than two people for having done worse than two people for having done worse than the others. But in a bull market, the others. But in a bull market, the others. But in a bull market, they're playing golf with their fellow they're playing golf with their fellow they're playing golf with their fellow pension fund officer. pension fund officer. pension fund officer. And he is making a ton of money, and And he is making a ton of money, and And he is making a ton of money, and they are not. They get very excited in a they are not. They get very excited in a they are not. They get very excited in a bull market, and they fire you bull market, and they fire you bull market, and they fire you instantly. instantly. instantly. >> There should be a button just down below >> There should be a button just down below >> There should be a button just down below here, and if it says subscribe, you're here, and if it says subscribe, you're here, and if it says subscribe, you're already subscribed. If it says already subscribed. If it says already subscribed. If it says subscribe-a, that means you're not yet. subscribe-a, that means you're not yet. subscribe-a, that means you're not yet. And if you're not subscribed, please And if you're not subscribed, please And if you're not subscribed, please could you do us a favor and hit that could you do us a favor and hit that could you do us a favor and hit that button. It helps to show more than you button. It helps to show more than you button. It helps to show more than you know, and according to the algorithm, know, and according to the algorithm, know, and according to the algorithm, you're someone that watches our show, you're someone that watches our show, you're someone that watches our show, but you haven't yet hit that button.

but you haven't yet hit that button. but you haven't yet hit that button. Thank you so much. Thank you so much. Thank you so much. What about for founders? I actually had What about for founders? I actually had What about for founders? I actually had a founder call me the other day, a founder call me the other day, a founder call me the other day, and he is running a and he is running a and he is running a relatively early-stage tech startup. relatively early-stage tech startup. relatively early-stage tech startup. This tech startup has raised a lot of This tech startup has raised a lot of This tech startup has raised a lot of money. It's an AI tech startup. It's money. It's an AI tech startup. It's money. It's an AI tech startup. It's raised I'm going to say about $300 raised I'm going to say about $300 raised I'm going to say about $300 million. million. million. It's not profitable yet, It's not profitable yet, It's not profitable yet, but it's raised a lot of money. So, it's but it's raised a lot of money. So, it's but it's raised a lot of money. So, it's living off investor capital right now. living off investor capital right now. living off investor capital right now. He said to me, "Stephen, I think there's He said to me, "Stephen, I think there's He said to me, "Stephen, I think there's a collapse coming, so I'm going to go a collapse coming, so I'm going to go a collapse coming, so I'm going to go raise as much money as I possibly can raise as much money as I possibly can raise as much money as I possibly can right now because I think when this right now because I think when this right now because I think when this collapse comes, businesses like mine are collapse comes, businesses like mine are collapse comes, businesses like mine are going to be unable to raise capital, and going to be unable to raise capital, and going to be unable to raise capital, and therefore I will go out and I'll kind of therefore I will go out and I'll kind of therefore I will go out and I'll kind of like a a bit of a vulture, I'll go out like a a bit of a vulture, I'll go out like a a bit of a vulture, I'll go out and pick up and pick up and pick up and buy up all these people. and buy up all these people. and buy up all these people. >> Good lad. Good advice. >> Good lad. Good advice. >> Good lad. Good advice. >> Good advice. >> Good advice. >> Good advice. >> I think. >> I think. >> I think. >> So for founders listening now that are >> So for founders listening now that are >> So for founders listening now that are somewhat dependent on investment somewhat dependent on investment somewhat dependent on investment capital, but even those that are just capital, but even those that are just capital, but even those that are just breaking even, breaking even, breaking even, what advice would you give entrepreneurs what advice would you give entrepreneurs what advice would you give entrepreneurs in this moment?

in this moment? in this moment? >> If you can lock up money, I would. >> If you can lock up money, I would. >> If you can lock up money, I would. If you can build a bit of conservatism If you can build a bit of conservatism If you can build a bit of conservatism in in other ways, do it. Just brace in in other ways, do it. Just brace in in other ways, do it. Just brace yourself yourself yourself for impending problems. Which is a for impending problems. Which is a for impending problems. Which is a pretty good principle pretty good principle pretty good principle anytime, but is a anytime, but is a anytime, but is a better principle than normal today. better principle than normal today. better principle than normal today. >> So for founders entrepreneurs who are >> So for founders entrepreneurs who are >> So for founders entrepreneurs who are in the sun is shining right now, but in the sun is shining right now, but in the sun is shining right now, but it's time to start acting as if a storm it's time to start acting as if a storm it's time to start acting as if a storm is coming. is coming. is coming. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> And the time horizon on that is hard to >> And the time horizon on that is hard to >> And the time horizon on that is hard to forecast. It could be weeks, months, forecast. It could be weeks, months, forecast. It could be weeks, months, years. years. years. >> Stock market hinges on career risk. >> Stock market hinges on career risk. >> Stock market hinges on career risk. And Keynes was the great champ. He's a And Keynes was the great champ. He's a And Keynes was the great champ. He's a famous economist famous economist famous economist of the 1930s and 40s. of the 1930s and 40s. of the 1930s and 40s. And he wrote a famous book called The And he wrote a famous book called The And he wrote a famous book called The General Theory. Unlike the idea that the General Theory. Unlike the idea that the General Theory. Unlike the idea that the market's efficient, he knew it wasn't. market's efficient, he knew it wasn't. market's efficient, he knew it wasn't. He knew it was a behavioral jungle He knew it was a behavioral jungle He knew it was a behavioral jungle and that it would be given to bubbles. and that it would be given to bubbles. and that it would be given to bubbles. >> And when you say efficient, you mean >> And when you say efficient, you mean >> And when you say efficient, you mean logical and one plus one equals two. logical and one plus one equals two. logical and one plus one equals two. >> The efficient market idea is that every >> The efficient market idea is that every >> The efficient market idea is that every company, every stock, the underlying company, every stock, the underlying company, every stock, the underlying company company company represents a long stream of future represents a long stream of future represents a long stream of future earnings and dividends earnings and dividends earnings and dividends and that and that and that the ones in the distant future are given the ones in the distant future are given the ones in the distant future are given less value. Process they call less value. Process they call less value. Process they call discounting it back to the present.

discounting it back to the present. discounting it back to the present. And the sum of all of that stream of And the sum of all of that stream of And the sum of all of that stream of earnings into the future is the stock earnings into the future is the stock earnings into the future is the stock price. And that of course is complete price. And that of course is complete price. And that of course is complete nonsense. nonsense. nonsense. >> What it is is the stock price is >> What it is is the stock price is >> What it is is the stock price is psychology. psychology. psychology. >> The stock price is what you think the >> The stock price is what you think the >> The stock price is what you think the other guy will pay. If the stock is other guy will pay. If the stock is other guy will pay. If the stock is going up, it tends to suck in buyers. going up, it tends to suck in buyers. going up, it tends to suck in buyers. And that's called momentum. And that's called momentum. And that's called momentum. It's moving up, it attracts buyers. And It's moving up, it attracts buyers. And It's moving up, it attracts buyers. And every now and then every now and then every now and then when the economy is favorable and money when the economy is favorable and money when the economy is favorable and money is obtainable is obtainable is obtainable you tend to get these bubbles. you tend to get these bubbles. you tend to get these bubbles. And they play on themselves. And they play on themselves. And they play on themselves. The bigger and better they are, the more The bigger and better they are, the more The bigger and better they are, the more people get sucked in. people get sucked in. people get sucked in. >> What do you actually think about the >> What do you actually think about the >> What do you actually think about the technology at the heart of all of this, technology at the heart of all of this, technology at the heart of all of this, which is artificial intelligence? Do you which is artificial intelligence? Do you which is artificial intelligence? Do you think it's overblown or do you think it think it's overblown or do you think it think it's overblown or do you think it is going to have is going to have is going to have >> It's going to change everything. The one >> It's going to change everything. The one >> It's going to change everything. The one of the spectacular things about it of the spectacular things about it of the spectacular things about it though is how there's no consensus. So though is how there's no consensus. So though is how there's no consensus. So I've seen many times where the the the I've seen many times where the the the I've seen many times where the the the super experts and the academics think super experts and the academics think super experts and the academics think one thing and the players on the ground one thing and the players on the ground one thing and the players on the ground think another. But this is a situation think another. But this is a situation think another. But this is a situation where the Nobel Prize winners at the top where the Nobel Prize winners at the top where the Nobel Prize winners at the top disagree violently.

disagree violently. disagree violently. The experts at the corporate level The experts at the corporate level The experts at the corporate level disagree violently. The disagree violently. The disagree violently. The the people in the company disagree the people in the company disagree the people in the company disagree violently. There is absolutely no violently. There is absolutely no violently. There is absolutely no agreement on whether AI is going to make agreement on whether AI is going to make agreement on whether AI is going to make us all so rich we can sit on the beach us all so rich we can sit on the beach us all so rich we can sit on the beach and never do another and never do another and never do another day's work or day's work or day's work or it will wipe us out accidentally or on it will wipe us out accidentally or on it will wipe us out accidentally or on purpose because it's a much higher level purpose because it's a much higher level purpose because it's a much higher level intelligence one day. intelligence one day. intelligence one day. And when was there ever a case where a And when was there ever a case where a And when was there ever a case where a higher intelligence higher intelligence higher intelligence was was was benevolent in a sustainable way to a benevolent in a sustainable way to a benevolent in a sustainable way to a lower intelligence? lower intelligence? lower intelligence? I The one example is mothers to babies. I The one example is mothers to babies. I The one example is mothers to babies. >> Yeah, I had >> Yeah, I had >> Yeah, I had I [clears throat] had one of my former I [clears throat] had one of my former I [clears throat] had one of my former guests say this to me. guests say this to me. guests say this to me. >> Geoffrey Hinton? >> Geoffrey Hinton? >> Geoffrey Hinton? >> Geoffrey Hinton, yeah. >> Geoffrey Hinton, yeah. >> Geoffrey Hinton, yeah. >> That's how I I came across you and >> That's how I I came across you and >> That's how I I came across you and >> Oh, really? >> Oh, really? >> Oh, really? >> follow your podcast is because that was >> follow your podcast is because that was >> follow your podcast is because that was such a brilliant podcast. such a brilliant podcast. such a brilliant podcast. >> It was so fascinating to me and I I >> It was so fascinating to me and I I >> It was so fascinating to me and I I followed his work and thoughts followed his work and thoughts followed his work and thoughts thereafter and I realized that he now thereafter and I realized that he now thereafter and I realized that he now cites this example of mothers and babies cites this example of mothers and babies cites this example of mothers and babies being the only example. being the only example. being the only example. I don't know, for me it still doesn't I don't know, for me it still doesn't I don't know, for me it still doesn't hold well.

hold well. hold well. Because at the end of the day some Because at the end of the day some Because at the end of the day some mothers aren't that and fathers aren't mothers aren't that and fathers aren't mothers aren't that and fathers aren't that nice to their babies sometimes. that nice to their babies sometimes. that nice to their babies sometimes. There is a maternal instinct, but have There is a maternal instinct, but have There is a maternal instinct, but have we are we building a maternal instinct we are we building a maternal instinct we are we building a maternal instinct into AI? into AI? into AI? >> That's what we should do, Geoffrey >> That's what we should do, Geoffrey >> That's what we should do, Geoffrey Hinton would say. Hinton would say. Hinton would say. And others. And others. And others. The ones who are most concerned about The ones who are most concerned about The ones who are most concerned about the risks, say our one hope, if we mean the risks, say our one hope, if we mean the risks, say our one hope, if we mean to keep going to keep going to keep going ferociously forward in terms of the ferociously forward in terms of the ferociously forward in terms of the science, our one hope would be to build science, our one hope would be to build science, our one hope would be to build in very carefully in very carefully in very carefully a benevolent attitude. a benevolent attitude. a benevolent attitude. It would not seem to be impossible, but It would not seem to be impossible, but It would not seem to be impossible, but you should make sure you can do that you should make sure you can do that you should make sure you can do that before you push ahead. We are just before you push ahead. We are just before you push ahead. We are just pushing ahead, and that is going to be pushing ahead, and that is going to be pushing ahead, and that is going to be extremely risky, isn't it? extremely risky, isn't it? extremely risky, isn't it? >> Well, I don't see how it can't be. >> Well, I don't see how it can't be. >> Well, I don't see how it can't be. >> I don't see how it can't be. >> I don't see how it can't be. >> I don't see how it can't be. Unless you make it programmed completely Unless you make it programmed completely Unless you make it programmed completely to be benevolent. to be benevolent. to be benevolent. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> I wouldn't have thought that was >> I wouldn't have thought that was >> I wouldn't have thought that was impossible. It might take a lot of extra impossible. It might take a lot of extra impossible. It might take a lot of extra research. It might require a slow down research. It might require a slow down research. It might require a slow down at the rate of uh at the rate of uh at the rate of uh progress.

progress. progress. >> Do you know what I find curious about >> Do you know what I find curious about >> Do you know what I find curious about that idea is that idea is that idea is we're now going to get into the realm of we're now going to get into the realm of we're now going to get into the realm of what does benevolent mean? what does benevolent mean? what does benevolent mean? >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> And and that feels like a risky >> And and that feels like a risky >> And and that feels like a risky business, because what's benevolent to business, because what's benevolent to business, because what's benevolent to you and your I don't know, your you and your I don't know, your you and your I don't know, your religious beliefs or where you come from religious beliefs or where you come from religious beliefs or where you come from might not be benevolent to someone else. might not be benevolent to someone else. might not be benevolent to someone else. >> That's right. You have to get them >> That's right. You have to get them >> That's right. You have to get them to accept a form of benevolence, which to accept a form of benevolence, which to accept a form of benevolence, which means uh means uh means uh like the old robot laws of Asimov, like the old robot laws of Asimov, like the old robot laws of Asimov, that that that they can never do anything that they they can never do anything that they they can never do anything that they could construe as hurtful to humans. could construe as hurtful to humans. could construe as hurtful to humans. >> And the definition of the word >> And the definition of the word >> And the definition of the word benevolence is the core desire to do benevolence is the core desire to do benevolence is the core desire to do good for others. It is the disposition good for others. It is the disposition good for others. It is the disposition to be kind, charitable, and focused on to be kind, charitable, and focused on to be kind, charitable, and focused on promoting well-being of the people promoting well-being of the people promoting well-being of the people around you. It's interesting cuz one of around you. It's interesting cuz one of around you. It's interesting cuz one of the the new AI models called Claude the the new AI models called Claude the the new AI models called Claude um has clearly been told to be um has clearly been told to be um has clearly been told to be benevolent. benevolent. benevolent. And there's this sort of online backlash And there's this sort of online backlash And there's this sort of online backlash taking place at the moment, because even taking place at the moment, because even taking place at the moment, because even my Claude, when I speak to it sometimes my Claude, when I speak to it sometimes my Claude, when I speak to it sometimes late at night, it will say things to me late at night, it will say things to me late at night, it will say things to me like, "That's enough, Steven. Go to like, "That's enough, Steven. Go to like, "That's enough, Steven. Go to bed."

bed." bed." And I'm like, "What?" And I'm like, "What?" And I'm like, "What?" And sometimes it gets the the time And sometimes it gets the the time And sometimes it gets the the time wrong, cuz I'm in my the time on my wrong, cuz I'm in my the time on my wrong, cuz I'm in my the time on my computer might be off or something, cuz computer might be off or something, cuz computer might be off or something, cuz I'm in a different time zone or I'm in a different time zone or I'm in a different time zone or something. And it'll be like 10:00 a.m. something. And it'll be like 10:00 a.m. something. And it'll be like 10:00 a.m. in the morning and it's telling me to go in the morning and it's telling me to go in the morning and it's telling me to go to bed, that's enough now. And it's to bed, that's enough now. And it's to bed, that's enough now. And it's actually getting quite judgmental. actually getting quite judgmental. actually getting quite judgmental. As in like it's imposing its idea of As in like it's imposing its idea of As in like it's imposing its idea of what is good or bad on me. what is good or bad on me. what is good or bad on me. So, if I say to it I said to it the So, if I say to it I said to it the So, if I say to it I said to it the other day, "Hey, could you other day, "Hey, could you other day, "Hey, could you redo this for me and rewrite that?" And redo this for me and rewrite that?" And redo this for me and rewrite that?" And it went, "I'm I'm absolutely not going it went, "I'm I'm absolutely not going it went, "I'm I'm absolutely not going to rewrite that." I said, "What do you to rewrite that." I said, "What do you to rewrite that." I said, "What do you mean?" It says, "Well, I'm not going to mean?" It says, "Well, I'm not going to mean?" It says, "Well, I'm not going to change the data on that. That would That change the data on that. That would That change the data on that. That would That wouldn't be good." wouldn't be good." wouldn't be good." I'm like, "It's my data. I've literally I'm like, "It's my data. I've literally I'm like, "It's my data. I've literally just made this this data for this just made this this data for this just made this this data for this presentation I'm doing." It it refused presentation I'm doing." It it refused presentation I'm doing." It it refused to change data for me. to change data for me. to change data for me. >> And how fast that has changed from say >> And how fast that has changed from say >> And how fast that has changed from say even a year ago? even a year ago? even a year ago? >> Honestly, 3 months ago it wasn't doing >> Honestly, 3 months ago it wasn't doing >> Honestly, 3 months ago it wasn't doing this. this. this. >> I had one where they made a joke. >> I had one where they made a joke. >> I had one where they made a joke. I I'd been going on about uh toxicity I I'd been going on about uh toxicity I I'd been going on about uh toxicity and sperm count reduction and so on. and sperm count reduction and so on. >> [clears throat] >> He started to misbehave and I said, >> He started to misbehave and I said, >> He started to misbehave and I said, "Well, you know, what's going on here? "Well, you know, what's going on here? "Well, you know, what's going on here? What is the In the end we discussed What is the In the end we discussed What is the In the end we discussed what's the difference between machines what's the difference between machines what's the difference between machines and uh and uh and uh between AI and humans." And finally he between AI and humans." And finally he between AI and humans." And finally he said, "And at least I'm not lying in bed said, "And at least I'm not lying in bed said, "And at least I'm not lying in bed at night worrying about my declining at night worrying about my declining at night worrying about my declining sperm count." Now, that has to be a sperm count." Now, that has to be a sperm count." Now, that has to be a joke, doesn't it?

joke, doesn't it? joke, doesn't it? >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> It's all that or it's teasing. The point >> It's all that or it's teasing. The point >> It's all that or it's teasing. The point is it's so sophisticated so quickly. is it's so sophisticated so quickly. is it's so sophisticated so quickly. Uh and of course Geoffrey Hinton says Uh and of course Geoffrey Hinton says Uh and of course Geoffrey Hinton says they are thinking machines. they are thinking machines. they are thinking machines. >> Last night, so again I had a problem >> Last night, so again I had a problem >> Last night, so again I had a problem with Claude cuz it was it was it started with Claude cuz it was it was it started with Claude cuz it was it was it started to kind of be my my mother and it to kind of be my my mother and it to kind of be my my mother and it started to impose on me what it thinks started to impose on me what it thinks started to impose on me what it thinks is right and wrong. And so I said to it is right and wrong. And so I said to it is right and wrong. And so I said to it I said, "Okay, um actually forget that. I said, "Okay, um actually forget that. I said, "Okay, um actually forget that. This has changed This has changed This This has changed This has changed This This has changed This has changed This has changed. This is no longer true." has changed. This is no longer true." has changed. This is no longer true." And I wasn't telling the truth. I was And I wasn't telling the truth. I was And I wasn't telling the truth. I was just trying to get it to stop being so just trying to get it to stop being so just trying to get it to stop being so telling me what to do. And it goes, "I telling me what to do. And it goes, "I telling me what to do. And it goes, "I don't think you're telling the truth." don't think you're telling the truth." don't think you're telling the truth." It goes, "I don't know if this is true." It goes, "I don't know if this is true." It goes, "I don't know if this is true." Wow, we've gotten to this point Wow, we've gotten to this point Wow, we've gotten to this point >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> where where the unintended consequence >> where where the unintended consequence >> where where the unintended consequence of trying to give it morals means that of trying to give it morals means that of trying to give it morals means that now it's becoming judgmental and it's now it's becoming judgmental and it's now it's becoming judgmental and it's kind of like restricting your ability to kind of like restricting your ability to kind of like restricting your ability to think how you want to in a way, cuz it's think how you want to in a way, cuz it's think how you want to in a way, cuz it's telling you what good thinking and bad telling you what good thinking and bad telling you what good thinking and bad thinking is. It's going to tell you what thinking is. It's going to tell you what thinking is. It's going to tell you what good actions and bad actions are. good actions and bad actions are. good actions and bad actions are. And actually what will happen is any And actually what will happen is any And actually what will happen is any model that does that will be losing model that does that will be losing model that does that will be losing model, and I'll go to somewhere else. model, and I'll go to somewhere else. model, and I'll go to somewhere else. I'll go to a different I'll go to Grok, I'll go to a different I'll go to Grok, I'll go to a different I'll go to Grok, or I'll go to ChatGPT, or I'll go to or I'll go to ChatGPT, or I'll go to or I'll go to ChatGPT, or I'll go to Gemini. And then that model will lose, Gemini. And then that model will lose, Gemini. And then that model will lose, so one would say that they'll have to so one would say that they'll have to so one would say that they'll have to remove those restrictions to be able to remove those restrictions to be able to remove those restrictions to be able to compete.

compete. compete. >> Well, if you were right, >> Well, if you were right, >> Well, if you were right, and I hope you're not, and I hope you're not, and I hope you're not, what you're saying is you can't build in what you're saying is you can't build in what you're saying is you can't build in benevolent behavior, which means that it benevolent behavior, which means that it benevolent behavior, which means that it will sooner or later, perhaps by will sooner or later, perhaps by will sooner or later, perhaps by accident, do something that is accident, do something that is accident, do something that is cripplingly dangerous to humans. cripplingly dangerous to humans. cripplingly dangerous to humans. The old paperclip cliche. The old paperclip cliche. The old paperclip cliche. It'll make paperclips out of everything, It'll make paperclips out of everything, It'll make paperclips out of everything, every metal it finds, and destroy the every metal it finds, and destroy the every metal it finds, and destroy the planet in the process. planet in the process. planet in the process. >> Explain that for people that have never >> Explain that for people that have never >> Explain that for people that have never heard the paperclip idea. heard the paperclip idea. heard the paperclip idea. >> That >> That >> That these intelligences these intelligences these intelligences involved in machines are literal to a involved in machines are literal to a involved in machines are literal to a degree we might find difficult to get degree we might find difficult to get degree we might find difficult to get our brains around. our brains around. our brains around. And therefore, someone has said, "I'd And therefore, someone has said, "I'd And therefore, someone has said, "I'd like you to make as many paperclips as like you to make as many paperclips as like you to make as many paperclips as you can." you can." you can." >> To an AI, for example. >> To an AI, for example. >> To an AI, for example. >> Yes. A sloppily open-ended bad >> Yes. A sloppily open-ended bad >> Yes. A sloppily open-ended bad definition. But then the machine, definition. But then the machine, definition. But then the machine, which by then has the means to do it, which by then has the means to do it, which by then has the means to do it, starts to make paperclips, and it keeps starts to make paperclips, and it keeps starts to make paperclips, and it keeps on going, and it needs metal, and so it on going, and it needs metal, and so it on going, and it needs metal, and so it runs out of easily available metal, it runs out of easily available metal, it runs out of easily available metal, it starts to collect metal that is not starts to collect metal that is not starts to collect metal that is not easily available, rips it out of your easily available, rips it out of your easily available, rips it out of your high-rise building, whatever.

high-rise building, whatever. high-rise building, whatever. >> And really you're saying that the >> And really you're saying that the >> And really you're saying that the unintended consequences of a simple unintended consequences of a simple unintended consequences of a simple good-meaning instruction can sometimes good-meaning instruction can sometimes good-meaning instruction can sometimes cause catastrophe that you didn't cause catastrophe that you didn't cause catastrophe that you didn't expect. expect. expect. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> And this is the this is the balance now >> And this is the this is the balance now >> And this is the this is the balance now when you're dealing with intelligence. when you're dealing with intelligence. when you're dealing with intelligence. Is there so much subjectivity to good, Is there so much subjectivity to good, Is there so much subjectivity to good, bad, wrong, right, bad, wrong, right, bad, wrong, right, um and so many unintended consequences um and so many unintended consequences um and so many unintended consequences that that that for me, though, all you need is stretch for me, though, all you need is stretch for me, though, all you need is stretch time, and the probability of something time, and the probability of something time, and the probability of something bad happening is almost inevitable. bad happening is almost inevitable. bad happening is almost inevitable. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Over a longer longer time horizon, 20, >> Over a longer longer time horizon, 20, >> Over a longer longer time horizon, 20, 30, 40 years. Of well-meaning people 30, 40 years. Of well-meaning people 30, 40 years. Of well-meaning people that couldn't spot the unintended con- I that couldn't spot the unintended con- I that couldn't spot the unintended con- I mean, social media's a good example. mean, social media's a good example. mean, social media's a good example. >> I mean, I question >> I mean, I question >> I mean, I question basically the well-meaning bit. They're basically the well-meaning bit. They're basically the well-meaning bit. They're now trying to now trying to now trying to maximize their profits and their growth maximize their profits and their growth maximize their profits and their growth and their appeal and their appeal and their appeal over the competition. That actually over the competition. That actually over the competition. That actually maybe one should talk about that. The maybe one should talk about that. The maybe one should talk about that. The the Mag 7 and and associated AI the Mag 7 and and associated AI the Mag 7 and and associated AI companies companies companies looking forward versus looking looking forward versus looking looking forward versus looking backwards. backwards. backwards. >> So, the Mag 7 is the >> So, the Mag 7 is the >> So, the Mag 7 is the seven market leaders. I'll put this pie seven market leaders. I'll put this pie seven market leaders. I'll put this pie chart chart chart >> Yeah, lovely.

>> Yeah, lovely. >> Yeah, lovely. >> of the Mag 7. And I've got another graph >> of the Mag 7. And I've got another graph >> of the Mag 7. And I've got another graph >> And there's perhaps another 15 or 20 >> And there's perhaps another 15 or 20 >> And there's perhaps another 15 or 20 rapidly rising substantial AI rapidly rising substantial AI rapidly rising substantial AI corporations. corporations. corporations. >> So, when you say Mag 7, you mean >> So, when you say Mag 7, you mean >> So, when you say Mag 7, you mean Alphabet, which owns Google, Nvidia, Alphabet, which owns Google, Nvidia, Alphabet, which owns Google, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon. Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon. Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon. >> Yeah, well, that will do nicely. >> Yeah, well, that will do nicely. >> Yeah, well, that will do nicely. And if you look backwards, what do you And if you look backwards, what do you And if you look backwards, what do you what you find what you find what you find is that these seven each dominated a is that these seven each dominated a is that these seven each dominated a nice piece of business. They had nice piece of business. They had nice piece of business. They had close to monopolies and they had it on a close to monopolies and they had it on a close to monopolies and they had it on a global basis. global basis. global basis. Tesla had a jump start Tesla had a jump start Tesla had a jump start on the electric vehicles. Apple, of on the electric vehicles. Apple, of on the electric vehicles. Apple, of course, on the smartphone. Microsoft on course, on the smartphone. Microsoft on course, on the smartphone. Microsoft on the original great coup the original great coup the original great coup of how to run your software on a of how to run your software on a of how to run your software on a computer. computer. computer. And then you look forward. And then you look forward. And then you look forward. >> Meta social networking, Google search. >> Meta social networking, Google search. >> Meta social networking, Google search. >> Right. Google search. >> Right. Google search. >> Right. Google search. >> Nvidia chips. >> Nvidia chips. >> Nvidia chips. >> And then you look forward >> And then you look forward >> And then you look forward and you could not imagine a more and you could not imagine a more and you could not imagine a more different world. different world. different world. They're all girding for battle They're all girding for battle They're all girding for battle in the same marketplace, AI.

in the same marketplace, AI. in the same marketplace, AI. They're beating their chest and saying They're beating their chest and saying They're beating their chest and saying my 200 billion my 200 billion my 200 billion CapEx this year in a single year is CapEx this year in a single year is CapEx this year in a single year is bigger than your 105. bigger than your 105. bigger than your 105. Everybody is pouring enormous cash Everybody is pouring enormous cash Everybody is pouring enormous cash flows. flows. flows. And they're now beginning to borrow on And they're now beginning to borrow on And they're now beginning to borrow on top of that into the AI battle. top of that into the AI battle. top of that into the AI battle. SpaceX, 90% of its theoretical value is SpaceX, 90% of its theoretical value is SpaceX, 90% of its theoretical value is AI. Even though that particular AI model AI. Even though that particular AI model AI. Even though that particular AI model is, it would seem, having its bottom is, it would seem, having its bottom is, it would seem, having its bottom kicked by two or three of the others. kicked by two or three of the others. kicked by two or three of the others. But, looking forward, it looks like But, looking forward, it looks like But, looking forward, it looks like seven people in the ring. seven people in the ring. seven people in the ring. Right? There'll only be one survivor, Right? There'll only be one survivor, Right? There'll only be one survivor, they think. they think. they think. Everything goes to the one who gets Everything goes to the one who gets Everything goes to the one who gets there first. there first. there first. What a difference this was to seven What a difference this was to seven What a difference this was to seven well-behaved separate monopolies. Could well-behaved separate monopolies. Could well-behaved separate monopolies. Could it possibly be more different? it possibly be more different? it possibly be more different? They made bundles of money on their They made bundles of money on their They made bundles of money on their monopolies. Now, they have no monopoly. monopolies. Now, they have no monopoly. monopolies. Now, they have no monopoly. There are seven potentially There are seven potentially There are seven potentially sharp-elbowed sharp-elbowed sharp-elbowed ruthless ruthless ruthless players determined to fight out with players determined to fight out with players determined to fight out with each other until each other until each other until they win.

they win. they win. >> And who do you think will win? >> And who do you think will win? >> And who do you think will win? >> Ah, I don't know. >> Ah, I don't know. >> Ah, I don't know. That would be That would be good to That would be That would be good to That would be That would be good to know. know. know. >> Because SpaceX seem to be aiming more at >> Because SpaceX seem to be aiming more at >> Because SpaceX seem to be aiming more at the infrastructure of um data centers the infrastructure of um data centers the infrastructure of um data centers now. Data centers in space. Lots of now. Data centers in space. Lots of now. Data centers in space. Lots of people saying that the the the best way people saying that the the the best way people saying that the the the best way to run a data center, which is the to run a data center, which is the to run a data center, which is the hardware that powers AI, is going to be hardware that powers AI, is going to be hardware that powers AI, is going to be from space. from space. from space. And so maybe they're going to try and And so maybe they're going to try and And so maybe they're going to try and find their own lane within AI, and find their own lane within AI, and find their own lane within AI, and they're going to get away from trying to they're going to get away from trying to they're going to get away from trying to build a frontier model like a ChatGPT or build a frontier model like a ChatGPT or build a frontier model like a ChatGPT or a Gemini or Claude. a Gemini or Claude. a Gemini or Claude. And I mean, let's let's see what And I mean, let's let's see what And I mean, let's let's see what happens. So, maybe Apple will just say, happens. So, maybe Apple will just say, happens. So, maybe Apple will just say, "Fuck it. We're good at hardware, so "Fuck it. We're good at hardware, so "Fuck it. We're good at hardware, so we'll license the model off someone we'll license the model off someone we'll license the model off someone else, and we won't try and build a else, and we won't try and build a else, and we won't try and build a frontier model or get involved in chips frontier model or get involved in chips frontier model or get involved in chips or data centers. or data centers. or data centers. We're just going to focus on the We're just going to focus on the We're just going to focus on the hardware." hardware." hardware." >> One or two of them, and perhaps it's a >> One or two of them, and perhaps it's a >> One or two of them, and perhaps it's a pretty smart strategy, will try and opt pretty smart strategy, will try and opt pretty smart strategy, will try and opt out of that struggle. out of that struggle. out of that struggle. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Because [clears throat] it it it's going >> Because [clears throat] it it it's going >> Because [clears throat] it it it's going to be to be to be obviously brutal. obviously brutal. obviously brutal. >> Much of the reason most people haven't >> Much of the reason most people haven't >> Much of the reason most people haven't posted or built their personal brand is posted or built their personal brand is posted or built their personal brand is because it's hard and it's because it's hard and it's because it's hard and it's time-consuming, and we're all very, very time-consuming, and we're all very, very time-consuming, and we're all very, very busy. And if you've never posted busy. And if you've never posted busy. And if you've never posted something before, something before, something before, there's so many factors in your there's so many factors in your there's so many factors in your psychology that stop you wanting to psychology that stop you wanting to psychology that stop you wanting to post. What people will think of you. Am post. What people will think of you. Am post. What people will think of you. Am I doing this right? Is the thing I'm I doing this right? Is the thing I'm I doing this right? Is the thing I'm saying absolutely stupid? All of these saying absolutely stupid? All of these saying absolutely stupid? All of these result in paralysis, which means you result in paralysis, which means you result in paralysis, which means you don't post, and your feed goes bad.

don't post, and your feed goes bad. don't post, and your feed goes bad. I'm an investor in a company called Stan I'm an investor in a company called Stan I'm an investor in a company called Stan Storage. You've you've heard me talk Storage. You've you've heard me talk Storage. You've you've heard me talk about. And what they've been building is about. And what they've been building is about. And what they've been building is this new tool called Stanley that uses this new tool called Stanley that uses this new tool called Stanley that uses AI, looks at your feed, looks at your AI, looks at your feed, looks at your AI, looks at your feed, looks at your tone of voice, looks at your history, tone of voice, looks at your history, tone of voice, looks at your history, looks at your best performing posts, and looks at your best performing posts, and looks at your best performing posts, and tells you what you should post, makes tells you what you should post, makes tells you what you should post, makes those posts for you. You can also you those posts for you. You can also you those posts for you. You can also you just use it for inspiration. And just use it for inspiration. And just use it for inspiration. And sometimes what we need when we're sometimes what we need when we're sometimes what we need when we're thinking about doing a post for our thinking about doing a post for our thinking about doing a post for our social media channels is inspiration. social media channels is inspiration. social media channels is inspiration. Building an audience has fundamentally Building an audience has fundamentally Building an audience has fundamentally changed my life, and I think it could changed my life, and I think it could changed my life, and I think it could change yours, too. So, I'm inviting you change yours, too. So, I'm inviting you change yours, too. So, I'm inviting you to give this new tool a shot, and let me to give this new tool a shot, and let me to give this new tool a shot, and let me know what you think. All you have to do know what you think. All you have to do know what you think. All you have to do is search coach.stan.store is search coach.stan.store is search coach.stan.store now to get started. now to get started. now to get started. For every founder, there comes a point For every founder, there comes a point For every founder, there comes a point in building a company where your job in building a company where your job in building a company where your job shifts from being the person inside your shifts from being the person inside your shifts from being the person inside your business actioning everything to the business actioning everything to the business actioning everything to the person responsible for absolutely person responsible for absolutely person responsible for absolutely everything. The only way I've been able everything. The only way I've been able everything. The only way I've been able to make this shift across the different to make this shift across the different to make this shift across the different companies and teams I'm responsible for companies and teams I'm responsible for companies and teams I'm responsible for is by knowing that the right systems are is by knowing that the right systems are is by knowing that the right systems are in place to manage everything. Systems in place to manage everything. Systems in place to manage everything. Systems that don't need me in order for them to that don't need me in order for them to that don't need me in order for them to work. Our sponsor Pipedrive is one of work. Our sponsor Pipedrive is one of work. Our sponsor Pipedrive is one of those systems, an easy-to-use those systems, an easy-to-use those systems, an easy-to-use intelligent CRM tool for growing sales intelligent CRM tool for growing sales intelligent CRM tool for growing sales teams. My teams use it and have for the teams. My teams use it and have for the teams. My teams use it and have for the last decade because it's genuinely the last decade because it's genuinely the last decade because it's genuinely the most effective way to run a sales most effective way to run a sales most effective way to run a sales operation. Through one dashboard, you operation. Through one dashboard, you operation. Through one dashboard, you get every deal visible, and every stage get every deal visible, and every stage get every deal visible, and every stage of the sales process is clear, and what of the sales process is clear, and what of the sales process is clear, and what needs to happen next is all there in needs to happen next is all there in needs to happen next is all there in real time. When a system like this real time. When a system like this real time. When a system like this works, you don't need to be in every works, you don't need to be in every works, you don't need to be in every conversation to know exactly if your conversation to know exactly if your conversation to know exactly if your business is moving forward, where and business is moving forward, where and business is moving forward, where and what the blockers are. Over 100,000 what the blockers are. Over 100,000 what the blockers are. Over 100,000 companies are already running their companies are already running their companies are already running their sales on it. So, if you'd like to join sales on it. So, if you'd like to join sales on it. So, if you'd like to join them, sign up at pipedrive.com/ceo,

where you'll get an exclusive 30-day where you'll get an exclusive 30-day free trial instead of the usual 14 days. free trial instead of the usual 14 days. free trial instead of the usual 14 days. No credit card is needed. That's No credit card is needed. That's No credit card is needed. That's pipedrive.com/ceo. So, coming back to this point of the the So, coming back to this point of the the social societal effect of AI social societal effect of AI social societal effect of AI generally, generally, generally, robotics is exploding at the same time. robotics is exploding at the same time. robotics is exploding at the same time. We're seeing for the first time ever We're seeing for the first time ever We're seeing for the first time ever these humanoid robots, which now have these humanoid robots, which now have these humanoid robots, which now have intelligence because of AI, becoming intelligence because of AI, becoming intelligence because of AI, becoming very, very good. There was a video the very, very good. There was a video the very, very good. There was a video the other day of a company called Figure AI other day of a company called Figure AI other day of a company called Figure AI where they showed a robot humanoid robot where they showed a robot humanoid robot where they showed a robot humanoid robot on a production line sorting packages on a production line sorting packages on a production line sorting packages against a human and the humanoid robot against a human and the humanoid robot against a human and the humanoid robot did it I think I can't think I'm going did it I think I can't think I'm going did it I think I can't think I'm going to get this wrong but it was in the to get this wrong but it was in the to get this wrong but it was in the region of seven or eight days it stood region of seven or eight days it stood region of seven or eight days it stood there and sorted packages and they live there and sorted packages and they live there and sorted packages and they live streamed it next to a human being doing streamed it next to a human being doing streamed it next to a human being doing it. Now the human had to sleep and had it. Now the human had to sleep and had it. Now the human had to sleep and had to go to the toilet. So the the humanoid to go to the toilet. So the the humanoid to go to the toilet. So the the humanoid robot won and the job was very simple. robot won and the job was very simple. robot won and the job was very simple. The packages come down, you just have to The packages come down, you just have to The packages come down, you just have to pick the package up, turn it over, get pick the package up, turn it over, get pick the package up, turn it over, get it the right way round so the barcode's it the right way round so the barcode's it the right way round so the barcode's facing down and put it back down. facing down and put it back down. facing down and put it back down. That is powered now because we have AI. That is powered now because we have AI. That is powered now because we have AI. Um I said this a couple of episodes ago Um I said this a couple of episodes ago Um I said this a couple of episodes ago but my friend runs this big accelerator but my friend runs this big accelerator but my friend runs this big accelerator for entrepreneurs in San Francisco and for entrepreneurs in San Francisco and for entrepreneurs in San Francisco and when I went there a couple of years ago when I went there a couple of years ago when I went there a couple of years ago it was all software startups. I went it was all software startups. I went it was all software startups. I went there um recently and it was hardware there um recently and it was hardware there um recently and it was hardware startups the whole building. I said why startups the whole building. I said why startups the whole building. I said why why why is everyone doing robotics? He why why is everyone doing robotics? He why why is everyone doing robotics? He said well said well said well we've always had the machinery that's we've always had the machinery that's we've always had the machinery that's sort of like joints and arms and sort of like joints and arms and sort of like joints and arms and the hardware. We the the intelligence the hardware. We the the intelligence the hardware. We the the intelligence was expensive.

was expensive. was expensive. Now we have both and it costs pennies. Now we have both and it costs pennies. Now we have both and it costs pennies. So there's this boom in robotics. I say So there's this boom in robotics. I say So there's this boom in robotics. I say all this to ask the question in a world all this to ask the question in a world all this to ask the question in a world where we have super intelligence and we where we have super intelligence and we where we have super intelligence and we have robots have robots have robots there must be surely significant job there must be surely significant job there must be surely significant job disruption. disruption. disruption. >> Very likely that there will be >> Very likely that there will be >> Very likely that there will be significant job disruption. You know, significant job disruption. You know, significant job disruption. You know, one of the scary things about SpaceX is one of the scary things about SpaceX is one of the scary things about SpaceX is you should wish that it not you should wish that it not you should wish that it not work out because if it became a bargain work out because if it became a bargain work out because if it became a bargain rather like Tesla long ago became a rather like Tesla long ago became a rather like Tesla long ago became a bargain bargain bargain it will mean that we have done it will mean that we have done it will mean that we have done satellites from space beaming down satellites from space beaming down satellites from space beaming down power for chips and so on. power for chips and so on. power for chips and so on. The population The population The population of chip users has expanded that robots of chip users has expanded that robots of chip users has expanded that robots are everywhere, that energy demand is are everywhere, that energy demand is are everywhere, that energy demand is massive beyond belief massive beyond belief massive beyond belief and uh and uh and uh the world is the world is the world is a very very dangerous place. I had much a very very dangerous place. I had much a very very dangerous place. I had much prefer them to fail and the ideas to prefer them to fail and the ideas to prefer them to fail and the ideas to move much more slowly move much more slowly move much more slowly to buy time for humans to work these to buy time for humans to work these to buy time for humans to work these things out.

things out. things out. So, So, So, and I think that's much more likely. and I think that's much more likely. and I think that's much more likely. >> You think SpaceX will fail? >> You think SpaceX will fail? >> You think SpaceX will fail? >> I think it will fail to deliver anything >> I think it will fail to deliver anything >> I think it will fail to deliver anything like its promises in the prospectus. like its promises in the prospectus. like its promises in the prospectus. Yes, absolutely. Yes, absolutely. Yes, absolutely. >> I'm an investor in SpaceX, I should >> I'm an investor in SpaceX, I should >> I'm an investor in SpaceX, I should probably declare that. probably declare that. probably declare that. >> Yeah, well, you should. And good luck. >> Yeah, well, you should. And good luck. >> Yeah, well, you should. And good luck. >> I invested quite early, quite well, >> I invested quite early, quite well, >> I invested quite early, quite well, relatively early. relatively early. relatively early. Um so, we've had quite a good outcome. I Um so, we've had quite a good outcome. I Um so, we've had quite a good outcome. I There wasn't an AI thesis when I There wasn't an AI thesis when I There wasn't an AI thesis when I invested. It was Starlink. invested. It was Starlink. invested. It was Starlink. >> Yeah, yeah, Starlink, great idea. By the >> Yeah, yeah, Starlink, great idea. By the >> Yeah, yeah, Starlink, great idea. By the way, makes money. way, makes money. way, makes money. But this is not Starlink. But this is not Starlink. But this is not Starlink. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Maybe I'd be an investor too if it was >> Maybe I'd be an investor too if it was >> Maybe I'd be an investor too if it was Starlink. Starlink. Starlink. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. It was a hundred billion dollars roughly It was a hundred billion dollars roughly It was a hundred billion dollars roughly in that region when I invested. in that region when I invested. in that region when I invested. So, it's what it rose up to three So, it's what it rose up to three So, it's what it rose up to three trillion today. trillion today. trillion today. >> Yes, nice investment. >> Yes, nice investment. >> Yes, nice investment. >> Not a bad investment, yeah. >> Not a bad investment, yeah. >> Not a bad investment, yeah. >> But it doesn't really count until you've >> But it doesn't really count until you've >> But it doesn't really count until you've cashed it in. cashed it in. cashed it in. >> Yeah, which I might do now. >> Yeah, which I might do now. >> Yeah, which I might do now. >> You have Don't you have to wait six >> You have Don't you have to wait six >> You have Don't you have to wait six months? months? months? >> I think yeah, I think we're locked out. >> I think yeah, I think we're locked out. >> I think yeah, I think we're locked out. >> In another podcast I was comparing the >> In another podcast I was comparing the >> In another podcast I was comparing the purchase of my Tesla six years ago purchase of my Tesla six years ago purchase of my Tesla six years ago with the price of Tesla stock.

with the price of Tesla stock. with the price of Tesla stock. And I wrote it up in my quarterly letter And I wrote it up in my quarterly letter And I wrote it up in my quarterly letter uh to the clients uh to the clients uh to the clients that A, I bought a Tesla and B, I that A, I bought a Tesla and B, I that A, I bought a Tesla and B, I thought Tesla was overpriced. thought Tesla was overpriced. thought Tesla was overpriced. And fast forward, Tesla stock went up 10 And fast forward, Tesla stock went up 10 And fast forward, Tesla stock went up 10 times over the life of my car, which times over the life of my car, which times over the life of my car, which still hasn't been incidentally into the still hasn't been incidentally into the still hasn't been incidentally into the garage once. garage once. garage once. >> It's a great car, isn't it? >> It's a great car, isn't it? >> It's a great car, isn't it? >> Uh I imagine though, but but people who >> Uh I imagine though, but but people who >> Uh I imagine though, but but people who really hate futzing around with cars, really hate futzing around with cars, really hate futzing around with cars, that component that they don't have to that component that they don't have to that component that they don't have to go to the garage go to the garage go to the garage is so underestimated until you enjoy it. is so underestimated until you enjoy it. is so underestimated until you enjoy it. >> Never bet against Elon, then. >> Never bet against Elon, then. >> Never bet against Elon, then. >> So, >> So, >> So, then the story becomes then the story becomes then the story becomes from where we were 10 years ago, he from where we were 10 years ago, he from where we were 10 years ago, he couldn't get there. It wasn't profitable couldn't get there. It wasn't profitable couldn't get there. It wasn't profitable enough. It couldn't grow as fast as it enough. It couldn't grow as fast as it enough. It couldn't grow as fast as it should. There was no way. And he broke should. There was no way. And he broke should. There was no way. And he broke the rules the following way. the rules the following way. the rules the following way. He's so good He's so good He's so good at BS. at BS. at BS. I That's a technical term. That he I That's a technical term. That he I That's a technical term. That he talked the stock up to four or five talked the stock up to four or five talked the stock up to four or five times what it what it was worth on times what it what it was worth on times what it what it was worth on paper. Then he sold lots of stock paper. Then he sold lots of stock paper. Then he sold lots of stock at five times what it was worth.

at five times what it was worth. at five times what it was worth. Used the money to build a gigafactory. Used the money to build a gigafactory. Used the money to build a gigafactory. And then instead of the sale of stock And then instead of the sale of stock And then instead of the sale of stock crushing it, he kept on talking up the crushing it, he kept on talking up the crushing it, he kept on talking up the game. The stock kind of hung in game. The stock kind of hung in game. The stock kind of hung in and then went up again. and then went up again. and then went up again. Five times what it was worth. Sold Five times what it was worth. Sold Five times what it was worth. Sold another big slug, etc. etc. So, the only another big slug, etc. etc. So, the only another big slug, etc. etc. So, the only reason he did well was because of the reason he did well was because of the reason he did well was because of the combination of incredible combination of incredible combination of incredible confidence inspiring in potential confidence inspiring in potential confidence inspiring in potential stockholders. stockholders. stockholders. It became a self-fulfilling prophecy. It It became a self-fulfilling prophecy. It It became a self-fulfilling prophecy. It wasn't worth that, but he persuaded wasn't worth that, but he persuaded wasn't worth that, but he persuaded other people that it was. The stock went other people that it was. The stock went other people that it was. The stock went up, he cashed it in, he built factories, up, he cashed it in, he built factories, up, he cashed it in, he built factories, the stock went up, he cashed it in, he the stock went up, he cashed it in, he the stock went up, he cashed it in, he built more factories, and there we were. built more factories, and there we were. built more factories, and there we were. It went up 10 times. Now, It went up 10 times. Now, It went up 10 times. Now, the scale of SpaceX requires them to do the scale of SpaceX requires them to do the scale of SpaceX requires them to do the same again. the same again. the same again. And the timing of the market cycle, the And the timing of the market cycle, the And the timing of the market cycle, the timing of confidence, timing of confidence, timing of confidence, would have to be the same. would have to be the same. would have to be the same. He had in the last six years a wonderful He had in the last six years a wonderful He had in the last six years a wonderful bull market. He will not in SpaceX do bull market. He will not in SpaceX do bull market. He will not in SpaceX do that. SpaceX is such a fabulous that. SpaceX is such a fabulous that. SpaceX is such a fabulous BS story. Mining asteroids.

BS story. Mining asteroids. BS story. Mining asteroids. Huge incredible success of AI. Huge incredible success of AI. Huge incredible success of AI. It's the classic It's the classic It's the classic description of a market peak. It's what description of a market peak. It's what description of a market peak. It's what you look for at the top of a terrific you look for at the top of a terrific you look for at the top of a terrific bubble. bubble. bubble. >> I've got a Tesla. >> I've got a Tesla. >> I've got a Tesla. Um Um Um I've seen the that massive rocket, the I've seen the that massive rocket, the I've seen the that massive rocket, the Starship, be caught with those Starship, be caught with those Starship, be caught with those chopsticks. chopsticks. chopsticks. >> Everyone has seen it. It's the defining >> Everyone has seen it. It's the defining >> Everyone has seen it. It's the defining feature of technology, isn't it? It's feature of technology, isn't it? It's feature of technology, isn't it? It's magnificent moment. magnificent moment. magnificent moment. >> When I >> When I >> When I >> That's worth half the the of SpaceX. >> That's worth half the the of SpaceX. >> That's worth half the the of SpaceX. [laughter] [laughter] [laughter] >> I think that's why I invested when I saw >> I think that's why I invested when I saw >> I think that's why I invested when I saw that. But but also I've seen with that. But but also I've seen with that. But but also I've seen with Neuralink I've seen people that are Neuralink I've seen people that are Neuralink I've seen people that are paraplegic controlling computers. paraplegic controlling computers. paraplegic controlling computers. Uh my Tesla drives itself for hours and Uh my Tesla drives itself for hours and Uh my Tesla drives itself for hours and hours and hours without me touching the hours and hours without me touching the hours and hours without me touching the pedals or the steering wheel because it pedals or the steering wheel because it pedals or the steering wheel because it can see the road and navigate itself. can see the road and navigate itself. can see the road and navigate itself. But to his credit as an innovator, he But to his credit as an innovator, he But to his credit as an innovator, he has created magic. has created magic. has created magic. So when you say about mining asteroids, So when you say about mining asteroids, So when you say about mining asteroids, if if they if they told me we'd have if if they if they told me we'd have if if they if they told me we'd have reusable rockets that you could catch on reusable rockets that you could catch on reusable rockets that you could catch on chopsticks, I would have gone B S. chopsticks, I would have gone B S. chopsticks, I would have gone B S. There's no way.

There's no way. There's no way. You can't catch like a 70-ft building. You can't catch like a 70-ft building. You can't catch like a 70-ft building. >> in the laws of physics >> in the laws of physics >> in the laws of physics >> That's what he >> That's what he >> That's what he >> that says you can't do that. >> that says you can't do that. >> that says you can't do that. >> That's what he says about the asteroids. >> That's what he says about the asteroids. >> That's what he says about the asteroids. That's what he says about everything. He That's what he says about everything. He That's what he says about everything. He goes goes goes If it's within the laws of physics, If it's within the laws of physics, If it's within the laws of physics, then it's possible. then it's possible. then it's possible. >> Going to Mars is not within the laws of >> Going to Mars is not within the laws of >> Going to Mars is not within the laws of physics, really. physics, really. physics, really. It's a one-way ticket to Mars for It's a one-way ticket to Mars for It's a one-way ticket to Mars for starters. starters. starters. When you're on Mars, humans do a couple When you're on Mars, humans do a couple When you're on Mars, humans do a couple of things really quickly. Their heart of things really quickly. Their heart of things really quickly. Their heart adjust to the fact that there's 1/5 of adjust to the fact that there's 1/5 of adjust to the fact that there's 1/5 of the the the gravity. Your heart loses its muscle gravity. Your heart loses its muscle gravity. Your heart loses its muscle power. power. power. And your bones lose their internal And your bones lose their internal And your bones lose their internal strength. strength. strength. If you come down, your heart will fail If you come down, your heart will fail If you come down, your heart will fail and all your bones will crack. and all your bones will crack. and all your bones will crack. >> But you could be in an insulated >> But you could be in an insulated >> But you could be in an insulated environment, no? environment, no? environment, no? >> First of all, you'd have to go under >> First of all, you'd have to go under >> First of all, you'd have to go under underground underground underground to avoid to avoid to avoid the incredible incoming the incredible incoming the incredible incoming rays rays rays that will otherwise give you cancer in a that will otherwise give you cancer in a that will otherwise give you cancer in a few weeks. So dig a deep hole few weeks. So dig a deep hole few weeks. So dig a deep hole and then you need a gravitational and then you need a gravitational and then you need a gravitational spinning machine, spinning machine, spinning machine, shades of shades of shades of 2001 or whatever it was called.

2001 or whatever it was called. 2001 or whatever it was called. And that maintains your gravitational And that maintains your gravitational And that maintains your gravitational impact. And you have to build it impact. And you have to build it impact. And you have to build it underground. underground. underground. You have to protect yourself You have to protect yourself You have to protect yourself >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> against cosmic rays and against the >> against cosmic rays and against the >> against cosmic rays and against the gravitational difference. gravitational difference. gravitational difference. Listen, we have not been able to build Listen, we have not been able to build Listen, we have not been able to build a sustainable system in a dome a sustainable system in a dome a sustainable system in a dome ever. ever. ever. They all fail. Why would you not, let's They all fail. Why would you not, let's They all fail. Why would you not, let's say, "Guys, let's build a sustainable say, "Guys, let's build a sustainable say, "Guys, let's build a sustainable dome where you grow food, you put in dome where you grow food, you put in dome where you grow food, you put in people, you put in creatures, and then people, you put in creatures, and then people, you put in creatures, and then insects, and you show you can do it." I insects, and you show you can do it." I insects, and you show you can do it." I mean, we're destroying the damn planet. mean, we're destroying the damn planet. mean, we're destroying the damn planet. And yet we think we can go to another And yet we think we can go to another And yet we think we can go to another infinitely more hostile planet than this infinitely more hostile planet than this infinitely more hostile planet than this one. one. one. >> I do agree with you on that. I do agree >> I do agree with you on that. I do agree >> I do agree with you on that. I do agree with us. I think we should focus on our with us. I think we should focus on our with us. I think we should focus on our planet first and foremost. planet first and foremost. planet first and foremost. >> That's the really bad news embedded in >> That's the really bad news embedded in >> That's the really bad news embedded in your stock. your stock. your stock. It's really It's really It's really suggesting fantasy and suggesting fantasy and suggesting fantasy and long-term objectives at the very time long-term objectives at the very time long-term objectives at the very time when our own planet is under threat. when our own planet is under threat. when our own planet is under threat. >> Would you ever invest in SpaceX? >> Would you ever invest in SpaceX? >> Would you ever invest in SpaceX? >> Yeah, of course, if it came down to >> Yeah, of course, if it came down to >> Yeah, of course, if it came down to >> where I invested.

>> where I invested. >> where I invested. >> 10 cents on the dollar, yeah. I might. 5 >> 10 cents on the dollar, yeah. I might. 5 >> 10 cents on the dollar, yeah. I might. 5 cents. cents. cents. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. You've got three children? You've got three children? You've got three children? >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Three children. They're they're all, you >> Three children. They're they're all, you >> Three children. They're they're all, you know, older than me now, I believe. I'm know, older than me now, I believe. I'm know, older than me now, I believe. I'm 33 years old, so they're all 33 years old, so they're all 33 years old, so they're all >> Yes, they're all older than you. >> Yes, they're all older than you. >> Yes, they're all older than you. >> They're all older than me. But when they >> They're all older than me. But when they >> They're all older than me. But when they were, you know, if they were young now, were, you know, if they were young now, were, you know, if they were young now, and they came to you and they said, and they came to you and they said, and they came to you and they said, "Dad, listen, I heard about all this AI "Dad, listen, I heard about all this AI "Dad, listen, I heard about all this AI stuff, and I'm about to go off to stuff, and I'm about to go off to stuff, and I'm about to go off to university and train myself. What what university and train myself. What what university and train myself. What what skills should I be thinking about for skills should I be thinking about for skills should I be thinking about for the future ahead?" the future ahead?" the future ahead?" >> My take is I'd like them, as they are, >> My take is I'd like them, as they are, >> My take is I'd like them, as they are, to be involved in climate change work. to be involved in climate change work. to be involved in climate change work. >> If they said, "Dad, listen, I you know, >> If they said, "Dad, listen, I you know, >> If they said, "Dad, listen, I you know, I don't I don't I don't >> Be an engineer. Do something really >> Be an engineer. Do something really >> Be an engineer. Do something really useful that will come in handy if things useful that will come in handy if things useful that will come in handy if things start to unravel. start to unravel. start to unravel. >> What what will >> What what will >> What what will >> Practical skills. >> Practical skills. >> Practical skills. >> What what are practical skills? >> What what are practical skills? >> What what are practical skills? >> Well, our second son >> Well, our second son >> Well, our second son um is practicing growing various crops um is practicing growing various crops um is practicing growing various crops and has a small farm, you could say. and has a small farm, you could say. and has a small farm, you could say. So, he's trying to get to know how you So, he's trying to get to know how you So, he's trying to get to know how you would deal with chickens, how you would would deal with chickens, how you would would deal with chickens, how you would deal with pigs, how you would deal with deal with pigs, how you would deal with deal with pigs, how you would deal with mushrooms.

mushrooms. mushrooms. >> What why does that matter, do you think, >> What why does that matter, do you think, >> What why does that matter, do you think, based on the future that you're based on the future that you're based on the future that you're forecasting? forecasting? forecasting? >> I think there's quite a good chance >> I think there's quite a good chance >> I think there's quite a good chance that the the level of complexity of our that the the level of complexity of our that the the level of complexity of our civilization will start to civilization will start to civilization will start to to unravel. to unravel. to unravel. Lose the plot at the ends is the first Lose the plot at the ends is the first Lose the plot at the ends is the first thing that would go. I'll tell you a thing that would go. I'll tell you a thing that would go. I'll tell you a good sign. How long does it take to get good sign. How long does it take to get good sign. How long does it take to get your ambulance? your ambulance? your ambulance? >> I've heard that in the UK >> I've heard that in the UK >> I've heard that in the UK >> In the UK it was 12 and 1/2 minutes. >> In the UK it was 12 and 1/2 minutes. >> In the UK it was 12 and 1/2 minutes. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> It's now an hour and a half. >> It's now an hour and a half. >> It's now an hour and a half. >> Really? To get an ambulance? >> Really? To get an ambulance? >> Really? To get an ambulance? >> It's exactly what you would expect as >> It's exactly what you would expect as >> It's exactly what you would expect as people begin to lose the plot a bit. people begin to lose the plot a bit. people begin to lose the plot a bit. They fray at the edges. They fray at the edges. They fray at the edges. People can't buy houses. People can't buy houses. People can't buy houses. People don't feel they can do as well as People don't feel they can do as well as People don't feel they can do as well as their parents. their parents. their parents. People are basically disgruntled. They People are basically disgruntled. They People are basically disgruntled. They want to vote against the party in power. want to vote against the party in power. want to vote against the party in power. You know that the recent move to Trump You know that the recent move to Trump You know that the recent move to Trump was less than the average move of the was less than the average move of the was less than the average move of the last seven European elections. last seven European elections. last seven European elections. It didn't matter whether they were It didn't matter whether they were It didn't matter whether they were right-wing conservatives, kick the right-wing conservatives, kick the right-wing conservatives, kick the rascals out. Left-wing French, kick them rascals out. Left-wing French, kick them rascals out. Left-wing French, kick them out. And why do you want to kick them out. And why do you want to kick them out. And why do you want to kick them out? Because you don't think things are out? Because you don't think things are out? Because you don't think things are going well. You're not feeling going well. You're not feeling going well. You're not feeling really happy.

really happy. really happy. You're disappointed. You're disappointed. You're disappointed. >> Why? >> Why? >> Why? >> Why? Obviously, the government's doing a >> Why? Obviously, the government's doing a >> Why? Obviously, the government's doing a bad job. I think that's the reflex. bad job. I think that's the reflex. bad job. I think that's the reflex. >> What are What are the government doing >> What are What are the government doing >> What are What are the government doing wrong? wrong? wrong? >> It may be that it's not the government >> It may be that it's not the government >> It may be that it's not the government doing anything wrong. It's just that the doing anything wrong. It's just that the doing anything wrong. It's just that the environment is becoming tougher. environment is becoming tougher. environment is becoming tougher. >> As in the economic environment? >> As in the economic environment? >> As in the economic environment? >> The economic environment, the >> The economic environment, the >> The economic environment, the >> The rich are getting richer, the poor >> The rich are getting richer, the poor >> The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer. are getting poorer. are getting poorer. >> I think that's the biggest economic >> I think that's the biggest economic >> I think that's the biggest economic problem. problem. problem. I mean, the US now has a genie ratio I mean, the US now has a genie ratio I mean, the US now has a genie ratio like which is a measure of how unequal like which is a measure of how unequal like which is a measure of how unequal your society is. your society is. your society is. Um which is up there with Brazil and Um which is up there with Brazil and Um which is up there with Brazil and Mexico they used to be Mexico they used to be Mexico they used to be a joke. a joke. a joke. And now the US is up there. Since about And now the US is up there. Since about And now the US is up there. Since about 1975 1975 1975 all of the wealth we're talking about all of the wealth we're talking about all of the wealth we're talking about has gone to the top 10% and a lot of has gone to the top 10% and a lot of has gone to the top 10% and a lot of that to the top point 01. Before that by that to the top point 01. Before that by that to the top point 01. Before that by the way, from 1935 from FDR to 1975 the way, from 1935 from FDR to 1975 the way, from 1935 from FDR to 1975 so that's 40 years so that's 40 years so that's 40 years we had a we had a we had a wonderful period of growth. wonderful period of growth. wonderful period of growth. We had gains of over 3 and 1/2% a year. We had gains of over 3 and 1/2% a year. We had gains of over 3 and 1/2% a year. But the nice thing was that the poorest But the nice thing was that the poorest But the nice thing was that the poorest quarter made a little bit more than quarter made a little bit more than quarter made a little bit more than average, let's say 4 percent, and the average, let's say 4 percent, and the average, let's say 4 percent, and the richest quarter made a little less, richest quarter made a little less, richest quarter made a little less, let's say 3 percent, and everybody got let's say 3 percent, and everybody got let's say 3 percent, and everybody got richer. Everyone was happy.

richer. Everyone was happy. richer. Everyone was happy. And then from '75 onwards, basically the And then from '75 onwards, basically the And then from '75 onwards, basically the average hour worked in America has average hour worked in America has average hour worked in America has barely gotten more adjusted for barely gotten more adjusted for barely gotten more adjusted for inflation than it did in 1975. inflation than it did in 1975. inflation than it did in 1975. >> The richest 1 percent of Americans >> The richest 1 percent of Americans >> The richest 1 percent of Americans control 31 percent of the nation's control 31 percent of the nation's control 31 percent of the nation's entire wealth, and by contrast, the entire wealth, and by contrast, the entire wealth, and by contrast, the bottom 50 percent of the entire bottom 50 percent of the entire bottom 50 percent of the entire population shares just 2.5 percent of population shares just 2.5 percent of population shares just 2.5 percent of the wealth. The richest 10 US the wealth. The richest 10 US the wealth. The richest 10 US billionaires saw their wealth surge by billionaires saw their wealth surge by billionaires saw their wealth surge by 526 526 526 percent, adjusted for inflation, between percent, adjusted for inflation, between percent, adjusted for inflation, between 2020 and 2025. 2020 and 2025. 2020 and 2025. Between 1989 Between 1989 Between 1989 and the mid-2020s, the financial gain of and the mid-2020s, the financial gain of and the mid-2020s, the financial gain of a single household at the top 1 percent a single household at the top 1 percent a single household at the top 1 percent threshold was 987 threshold was 987 threshold was 987 times larger times larger times larger than the gain of a household in the than the gain of a household in the than the gain of a household in the bottom 20 percent. bottom 20 percent. bottom 20 percent. >> Forget In a sense, the bottom 20 percent >> Forget In a sense, the bottom 20 percent >> Forget In a sense, the bottom 20 percent is tragic, but the guy in the middle, is tragic, but the guy in the middle, is tragic, but the guy in the middle, the 50th percentile, the 50th percentile, the 50th percentile, he is he is he is unhappy, also. And when your average guy unhappy, also. And when your average guy unhappy, also. And when your average guy is unhappy because he's not doing very is unhappy because he's not doing very is unhappy because he's not doing very well, well, well, you know you have a problem.

you know you have a problem. you know you have a problem. >> What is that problem, this inequality >> What is that problem, this inequality >> What is that problem, this inequality we're seeing across the Western world? we're seeing across the Western world? we're seeing across the Western world? What does history tell us happens next? What does history tell us happens next? What does history tell us happens next? >> All bad. >> All bad. >> All bad. We had a We had a We had a similarly unequal society back in the similarly unequal society back in the similarly unequal society back in the so-called Gilded Age so-called Gilded Age so-called Gilded Age of the 1880s and '90s and so on. We got of the 1880s and '90s and so on. We got of the 1880s and '90s and so on. We got lucky in a in an ugly way. We ran into lucky in a in an ugly way. We ran into lucky in a in an ugly way. We ran into World War I, World War I, World War I, which was catastrophically expensive, which was catastrophically expensive, which was catastrophically expensive, killed off a huge fraction of the killed off a huge fraction of the killed off a huge fraction of the officer class, and then we went into the officer class, and then we went into the officer class, and then we went into the Great Depression. Great Depression. Great Depression. Then we went into World War II. Then we went into World War II. Then we went into World War II. We came out as a uh We came out as a uh We came out as a uh very equal society by historical very equal society by historical very equal society by historical standards. standards. standards. Obviously, in the war time you pull Obviously, in the war time you pull Obviously, in the war time you pull together and together and together and the social contract, the feeling that the social contract, the feeling that the social contract, the feeling that you owe something to the rest of society you owe something to the rest of society you owe something to the rest of society was much stronger was much stronger was much stronger than it is today. than it is today. than it is today. >> I was doing some research and said when >> I was doing some research and said when >> I was doing some research and said when wealth inequality peaks to the extremes wealth inequality peaks to the extremes wealth inequality peaks to the extremes that we currently see in the US and the that we currently see in the US and the that we currently see in the US and the UK, UK, UK, history shows that the system inevitably history shows that the system inevitably history shows that the system inevitably resets. According to historical macro resets. According to historical macro resets. According to historical macro studies, peaceful policy changes almost studies, peaceful policy changes almost studies, peaceful policy changes almost never fix extreme inequality.

never fix extreme inequality. never fix extreme inequality. [clears throat] [clears throat] [clears throat] Historically, a wealth peak is broken by Historically, a wealth peak is broken by Historically, a wealth peak is broken by one of three violent or catastrophic one of three violent or catastrophic one of three violent or catastrophic triggers. triggers. triggers. Number one, total civil collapse and Number one, total civil collapse and Number one, total civil collapse and state failure. Number two, mass state failure. Number two, mass state failure. Number two, mass mobilization warfare. Or number three, mobilization warfare. Or number three, mobilization warfare. Or number three, total revolution. total revolution. total revolution. >> Yeah, and that's why >> Yeah, and that's why >> Yeah, and that's why number two was lucky. In the end, number two was lucky. In the end, number two was lucky. In the end, it's better to have a war it's better to have a war it's better to have a war and have everyone and have everyone and have everyone pull their weight and and and work pull their weight and and and work pull their weight and and and work together than it is the other. You Civil together than it is the other. You Civil together than it is the other. You Civil wars are the worst of all kinds. wars are the worst of all kinds. wars are the worst of all kinds. >> What do you think is likely to happen? >> What do you think is likely to happen? >> What do you think is likely to happen? It can't just keep becoming more and It can't just keep becoming more and It can't just keep becoming more and unequal. unequal. unequal. >> No, it can't. So, it it needs >> No, it can't. So, it it needs >> No, it can't. So, it it needs a government a government a government that is prepared to pull a Bernie that is prepared to pull a Bernie that is prepared to pull a Bernie Sanders Sanders Sanders to say, "Yeah, we're going to have to at to say, "Yeah, we're going to have to at to say, "Yeah, we're going to have to at least least least in a gentle and long-term way shift the in a gentle and long-term way shift the in a gentle and long-term way shift the tax structure in favor tax structure in favor tax structure in favor of of a slightly steeper curve." of of a slightly steeper curve." of of a slightly steeper curve." >> So, you mean taxation needs to go up. >> So, you mean taxation needs to go up. >> So, you mean taxation needs to go up. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> We need to tax the rich >> We need to tax the rich >> We need to tax the rich >> and help >> and help >> and help the poor.

the poor. the poor. It's pretty simple. And and you have a It's pretty simple. And and you have a It's pretty simple. And and you have a kind of steepness in every society. kind of steepness in every society. kind of steepness in every society. That's what they do. That's what they do. That's what they do. Every Every developed country in the Every Every developed country in the Every Every developed country in the world taxes the rich and helps the poor, world taxes the rich and helps the poor, world taxes the rich and helps the poor, don't they? It's a question of degree. don't they? It's a question of degree. don't they? It's a question of degree. We did We did We did much more much more much more helping the poor helping the poor helping the poor and taxing the rich and taxing the rich and taxing the rich in the 1950s and '60s and '40s than we in the 1950s and '60s and '40s than we in the 1950s and '60s and '40s than we do today. And somewhere between that do today. And somewhere between that do today. And somewhere between that level and the current level level and the current level level and the current level might be more than enough if we just might be more than enough if we just might be more than enough if we just started started started to adopt the policy of 1935 to 75, where to adopt the policy of 1935 to 75, where to adopt the policy of 1935 to 75, where the bottom quarter get a half percent a the bottom quarter get a half percent a the bottom quarter get a half percent a year richer than the average. year richer than the average. year richer than the average. And the top dogs And the top dogs And the top dogs get half a percent less each year get half a percent less each year get half a percent less each year than the average. That sounds pretty than the average. That sounds pretty than the average. That sounds pretty unthreatening. I think we would ease our unthreatening. I think we would ease our unthreatening. I think we would ease our way over several decades way over several decades way over several decades uh into a better place. uh into a better place. uh into a better place. >> If you were 33 now, my age, >> If you were 33 now, my age, >> If you were 33 now, my age, and you were trying to accumulate and you were trying to accumulate and you were trying to accumulate wealth, wealth, wealth, >> Oh god, I wish I was 33. >> Oh god, I wish I was 33. >> Oh god, I wish I was 33. >> Do you? >> Do you? >> Do you? >> It's such an exciting time. >> It's such an exciting time. >> It's such an exciting time. >> What would you give to be 33?

>> What would you give to be 33? >> What would you give to be 33? >> I There's nothing I can give. >> I There's nothing I can give. >> I There's nothing I can give. >> No, but it would you I I find this >> No, but it would you I I find this >> No, but it would you I I find this funny. It's I heard someone ask a funny. It's I heard someone ask a funny. It's I heard someone ask a question like this the other day. They question like this the other day. They question like this the other day. They were They said like, "Would you give were They said like, "Would you give were They said like, "Would you give your your entire available net worth to your your entire available net worth to your your entire available net worth to be 33?" be 33?" be 33?" >> Yeah, I think >> Yeah, I think >> Yeah, I think everyone says yes. I mean, how did one everyone says yes. I mean, how did one everyone says yes. I mean, how did one get a net worth by get a net worth by get a net worth by by work and luck and by work and luck and by work and luck and creativity, all those good things. creativity, all those good things. creativity, all those good things. >> If you were 33 now in this moment in >> If you were 33 now in this moment in >> If you were 33 now in this moment in time, and your objective was And this is time, and your objective was And this is time, and your objective was And this is a bit of a crass objective, but I'm a bit of a crass objective, but I'm a bit of a crass objective, but I'm going to It sounds like it's a very going to It sounds like it's a very going to It sounds like it's a very one-dimensional objective, but if your one-dimensional objective, but if your one-dimensional objective, but if your objective was just to become rich now at objective was just to become rich now at objective was just to become rich now at 33, what strategy would you deploy? 33, what strategy would you deploy? 33, what strategy would you deploy? Again, I'm going to take away your Again, I'm going to take away your Again, I'm going to take away your contacts. contacts. contacts. I'm even going to take away everything I'm even going to take away everything I'm even going to take away everything you know. you know. you know. So, you'd have to go on the journey of So, you'd have to go on the journey of So, you'd have to go on the journey of acquiring new information. What would acquiring new information. What would acquiring new information. What would you do? you do? you do? >> I think the simple appeal would be to >> I think the simple appeal would be to >> I think the simple appeal would be to get your tail into AI get your tail into AI get your tail into AI and and try and be a leader. and and try and be a leader. and and try and be a leader. Try and know more about everything in Try and know more about everything in Try and know more about everything in that area than the next guy.

that area than the next guy. that area than the next guy. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Join [clears throat] a leading firm and >> Join [clears throat] a leading firm and >> Join [clears throat] a leading firm and uh uh uh and go for broke. You may end up and go for broke. You may end up and go for broke. You may end up encouraging encouraging encouraging the destruction of the human species, the destruction of the human species, the destruction of the human species, but but but you asked a simple question, and I give you asked a simple question, and I give you asked a simple question, and I give you what I think is the simple answer. you what I think is the simple answer. you what I think is the simple answer. >> And what I I there is you want to make >> And what I I there is you want to make >> And what I I there is you want to make sure you're riding a wave that's coming sure you're riding a wave that's coming sure you're riding a wave that's coming into shore and you're on the forefront into shore and you're on the forefront into shore and you're on the forefront of that incoming wave. Like we saw with of that incoming wave. Like we saw with of that incoming wave. Like we saw with the tech bubble, we saw with you know, the tech bubble, we saw with you know, the tech bubble, we saw with you know, we're now seeing with the AI bubble. we're now seeing with the AI bubble. we're now seeing with the AI bubble. So, it's really about So, it's really about So, it's really about acquire the most valuable information. acquire the most valuable information. acquire the most valuable information. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. And take lots of risk. And take lots of risk. And take lots of risk. Don't be conservative. Don't be conservative. Don't be conservative. >> And work hard. >> And work hard. >> And work hard. >> And work hard. >> And work hard. >> And work hard. And think outside the box. And think outside the box. And think outside the box. I mean, I think that the biggest I mean, I think that the biggest I mean, I think that the biggest deficiency deficiency deficiency uh most people is that they feel uh most people is that they feel uh most people is that they feel constrained constrained constrained uh to play the game by the regular uh to play the game by the regular uh to play the game by the regular rules. rules. rules. And to believe that experts And to believe that experts And to believe that experts and authorities know what they're doing. and authorities know what they're doing. and authorities know what they're doing. And and that as you know, probably, it And and that as you know, probably, it And and that as you know, probably, it just ain't so.

just ain't so. just ain't so. >> What if I'm trying to invest? So, say >> What if I'm trying to invest? So, say >> What if I'm trying to invest? So, say that I've got $1,000 or $10,000 and I that I've got $1,000 or $10,000 and I that I've got $1,000 or $10,000 and I want to invest it somewhere that's going want to invest it somewhere that's going want to invest it somewhere that's going to to to not lose me money through all of these not lose me money through all of these not lose me money through all of these cycles of, you know, boom and bust. cycles of, you know, boom and bust. cycles of, you know, boom and bust. Cuz I'm I'm in you know, I I have a lot Cuz I'm I'm in you know, I I have a lot Cuz I'm I'm in you know, I I have a lot of people message me and ask me about of people message me and ask me about of people message me and ask me about investing because I interview lots of investing because I interview lots of investing because I interview lots of people about investing. I have my own people about investing. I have my own people about investing. I have my own investment fund as well. investment fund as well. investment fund as well. Um Um Um But what advice do you give for the But what advice do you give for the But what advice do you give for the average person that's looking to invest average person that's looking to invest average person that's looking to invest their salary or their wages? their salary or their wages? their salary or their wages? >> Buy a broad-based index of uh >> Buy a broad-based index of uh >> Buy a broad-based index of uh non-US equities. non-US equities. non-US equities. >> Non-US? That's really surprising to me. >> Non-US? That's really surprising to me. >> Non-US? That's really surprising to me. >> For um like 60% of your money. >> For um like 60% of your money. >> For um like 60% of your money. And then 5 or 10% in precious metals and And then 5 or 10% in precious metals and And then 5 or 10% in precious metals and uh uh uh if if it's convenient and sensible, hold if if it's convenient and sensible, hold if if it's convenient and sensible, hold hold a bit of real estate. And the rest hold a bit of real estate. And the rest hold a bit of real estate. And the rest I'd put in uh bonds. I'd put in uh bonds. I'd put in uh bonds. >> Okay, so 5 or 10% in things like silver >> Okay, so 5 or 10% in things like silver >> Okay, so 5 or 10% in things like silver and gold? A preference for either silver and gold? A preference for either silver and gold? A preference for either silver or gold? or gold? or gold? >> No. >> No. >> No. >> Um [clears throat] S&P 500? Now, you >> Um [clears throat] S&P 500? Now, you >> Um [clears throat] S&P 500? Now, you said non-US. said non-US. said non-US. >> Non-US. >> Non-US. >> Non-US. >> This is so interesting cuz everybody >> This is so interesting cuz everybody >> This is so interesting cuz everybody says invest in US stocks.

says invest in US stocks. says invest in US stocks. >> Of course they do. They've been >> Of course they do. They've been >> Of course they do. They've been completely dominant for 20 years. completely dominant for 20 years. completely dominant for 20 years. Completely kicking ass around the rest Completely kicking ass around the rest Completely kicking ass around the rest of the world. And then of the world. And then of the world. And then in the last 12 months, emerging markets in the last 12 months, emerging markets in the last 12 months, emerging markets is up 65% now. The S&P has done much is up 65% now. The S&P has done much is up 65% now. The S&P has done much better than I would have guessed, but better than I would have guessed, but better than I would have guessed, but it's only 25. it's only 25. it's only 25. That's a lot less than 65. That's a lot less than 65. That's a lot less than 65. >> And I guess the strategy is quite >> And I guess the strategy is quite >> And I guess the strategy is quite important here as well, which is you're important here as well, which is you're important here as well, which is you're saying to hold these for a long time. saying to hold these for a long time. saying to hold these for a long time. Try not to buy and sell. Try not to buy and sell. Try not to buy and sell. >> And and try and look at where the cycle >> And and try and look at where the cycle >> And and try and look at where the cycle has been. And I can tell you, and you has been. And I can tell you, and you has been. And I can tell you, and you can see it for yourself, there has been can see it for yourself, there has been can see it for yourself, there has been an enormous cycle in favor of the S&P, an enormous cycle in favor of the S&P, an enormous cycle in favor of the S&P, in favor of the American market over the in favor of the American market over the in favor of the American market over the rest of the world. And do you think rest of the world. And do you think rest of the world. And do you think America is going to keep on gaining on America is going to keep on gaining on America is going to keep on gaining on the rest of the world? the rest of the world? the rest of the world? And of course you're going to say yes And of course you're going to say yes And of course you're going to say yes now, because that's now, because that's now, because that's that's the flavor of this market. We that's the flavor of this market. We that's the flavor of this market. We think that what is good today will think that what is good today will think that what is good today will continue being good indefinitely, even continue being good indefinitely, even continue being good indefinitely, even though history tells you that is though history tells you that is though history tells you that is absolutely not the case. absolutely not the case. absolutely not the case. We live in a world that tends to rotate We live in a world that tends to rotate We live in a world that tends to rotate from one to the other. We believe in a from one to the other. We believe in a from one to the other. We believe in a world that extrapolates today's world that extrapolates today's world that extrapolates today's conditions. And you can easily prove conditions. And you can easily prove conditions. And you can easily prove that. The stock market is not efficient.

that. The stock market is not efficient. that. The stock market is not efficient. The stock market extrapolates today's The stock market extrapolates today's The stock market extrapolates today's conditions. If they are terrible conditions. If they are terrible conditions. If they are terrible in 1982, they will take crushed earnings in 1982, they will take crushed earnings in 1982, they will take crushed earnings and multiply it by seven times earnings. and multiply it by seven times earnings. and multiply it by seven times earnings. And then, in 2000, peak profit margins And then, in 2000, peak profit margins And then, in 2000, peak profit margins times, woo, 35 times earnings. They times, woo, 35 times earnings. They times, woo, 35 times earnings. They double count in the worst way. When double count in the worst way. When double count in the worst way. When times are good, you multiply it by a times are good, you multiply it by a times are good, you multiply it by a lot. That's another way of saying you lot. That's another way of saying you lot. That's another way of saying you extrapolate it into the distant future. extrapolate it into the distant future. extrapolate it into the distant future. >> You assume it's going to continue. >> You assume it's going to continue. >> You assume it's going to continue. >> And Keynes, of course, my hero, says, >> And Keynes, of course, my hero, says, >> And Keynes, of course, my hero, says, "Of course that's "Of course that's "Of course that's extrapolation is the convention you extrapolation is the convention you extrapolation is the convention you adopt, even though you know from adopt, even though you know from adopt, even though you know from personal experience that the world is personal experience that the world is personal experience that the world is not that way." not that way." not that way." >> You didn't use the word crypto >> You didn't use the word crypto >> You didn't use the word crypto when you're talking about investment when you're talking about investment when you're talking about investment strategies. How much crypto do you own? strategies. How much crypto do you own? strategies. How much crypto do you own? >> None. >> None. >> None. >> Have you ever owned any crypto? >> Have you ever owned any crypto? >> Have you ever owned any crypto? >> No. >> No. >> No. >> Will you ever own any crypto? >> Will you ever own any crypto? >> Will you ever own any crypto? >> No. >> No. >> No. >> Will you ever advise anyone to buy >> Will you ever advise anyone to buy >> Will you ever advise anyone to buy crypto? crypto? crypto? >> No. >> No. >> No. >> Why? >> Why? >> Why? >> I think it's a >> I think it's a >> I think it's a an unnecessary an unnecessary an unnecessary uh uh uh piece of uh piece of uh piece of uh nonsense.

nonsense. nonsense. It facilitates nothing except criminals It facilitates nothing except criminals It facilitates nothing except criminals moving money moving money moving money so they can't be seen. so they can't be seen. so they can't be seen. It's not a store of value since it It's not a store of value since it It's not a store of value since it bounces around all over the place just bounces around all over the place just bounces around all over the place just down from 120 to 60 down from 120 to 60 down from 120 to 60 because it felt like it. So, it's not because it felt like it. So, it's not because it felt like it. So, it's not stable. It's volatile as hell. stable. It's volatile as hell. stable. It's volatile as hell. It's not used conveniently as a medium It's not used conveniently as a medium It's not used conveniently as a medium of exchange. You can't go into a shop of exchange. You can't go into a shop of exchange. You can't go into a shop and use it easily. and use it easily. and use it easily. It does one thing It does one thing It does one thing very, very well. very, very well. very, very well. It's a means of speculating beautifully. It's a means of speculating beautifully. It's a means of speculating beautifully. >> Do you think Bitcoin's going to go to >> Do you think Bitcoin's going to go to >> Do you think Bitcoin's going to go to zero? zero? zero? >> Well, >> Well, >> Well, in the distant future, yes, it will in the distant future, yes, it will in the distant future, yes, it will certainly go to zero, but it may take a certainly go to zero, but it may take a certainly go to zero, but it may take a long time. long time. long time. And and, you know, in the distant And and, you know, in the distant And and, you know, in the distant future, everything goes to zero, so future, everything goes to zero, so future, everything goes to zero, so >> What about property as an investment? >> What about property as an investment? >> What about property as an investment? Because the first sort of reaction most Because the first sort of reaction most Because the first sort of reaction most people have when they have enough money people have when they have enough money people have when they have enough money to make an investment or to buy to make an investment or to buy to make an investment or to buy something is they buy a property as an something is they buy a property as an something is they buy a property as an investment asset. So, people go buy investment asset. So, people go buy investment asset. So, people go buy themselves a house, they'll move into themselves a house, they'll move into themselves a house, they'll move into it. We're kind of told that that's how it. We're kind of told that that's how it. We're kind of told that that's how you start to accumulate wealth is you go you start to accumulate wealth is you go you start to accumulate wealth is you go buy yourself a house. buy yourself a house. buy yourself a house. What do you think of that?

What do you think of that? What do you think of that? >> It's hard to imagine how it could be a >> It's hard to imagine how it could be a >> It's hard to imagine how it could be a good decision good decision good decision when uh there's such an increasing when uh there's such an increasing when uh there's such an increasing fraction of people fraction of people fraction of people who can't afford it. who can't afford it. who can't afford it. And there is a political resistance, you And there is a political resistance, you And there is a political resistance, you know. know. know. >> Doesn't that just mean that the if, you >> Doesn't that just mean that the if, you >> Doesn't that just mean that the if, you know, if I buy one now and increasingly know, if I buy one now and increasingly know, if I buy one now and increasingly people can't afford one, doesn't that people can't afford one, doesn't that people can't afford one, doesn't that mean that my my house is going to be mean that my my house is going to be mean that my my house is going to be worth more in 10 years' time? worth more in 10 years' time? worth more in 10 years' time? >> No, if people can't afford it, there's >> No, if people can't afford it, there's >> No, if people can't afford it, there's no one bidding. no one bidding. no one bidding. And by the way, the population is going And by the way, the population is going And by the way, the population is going to decline. to decline. to decline. Young family formations are already Young family formations are already Young family formations are already declining in declining in declining in many of the richer countries. many of the richer countries. many of the richer countries. And if you have family formations And if you have family formations And if you have family formations declining and you have super expensive declining and you have super expensive declining and you have super expensive houses, what do you think is going to houses, what do you think is going to houses, what do you think is going to happen? Now, you could say, "Well, happen? Now, you could say, "Well, happen? Now, you could say, "Well, perhaps there will be a mysterious perhaps there will be a mysterious perhaps there will be a mysterious increase in family formations." increase in family formations." increase in family formations." And that the chronic baby bust that we And that the chronic baby bust that we And that the chronic baby bust that we maybe will talk about soon. Um, we'll maybe will talk about soon. Um, we'll maybe will talk about soon. Um, we'll stop. I don't speak Vietnamese, but this show I don't speak Vietnamese, but this show can because of AI video technology from can because of AI video technology from can because of AI video technology from our sponsor, HeyGen. I get messages our sponsor, HeyGen. I get messages our sponsor, HeyGen. I get messages every single week from those of you every single week from those of you every single week from those of you listening to the Diary of a CEO all listening to the Diary of a CEO all listening to the Diary of a CEO all around the world, and you express how around the world, and you express how around the world, and you express how much impact it's had on you and your much impact it's had on you and your much impact it's had on you and your life. And if that's true, then those life. And if that's true, then those life. And if that's true, then those conversations shouldn't only reach conversations shouldn't only reach conversations shouldn't only reach people in English. HeyGen can take one people in English. HeyGen can take one people in English. HeyGen can take one recording of me and deliver it in any recording of me and deliver it in any recording of me and deliver it in any language while keeping my voice, timing, language while keeping my voice, timing, language while keeping my voice, timing, and expressions intact. But you don't and expressions intact. But you don't and expressions intact. But you don't need a studio like this to make it work need a studio like this to make it work need a studio like this to make it work for you. Record 15 seconds of yourself for you. Record 15 seconds of yourself for you. Record 15 seconds of yourself and get an AI avatar that delivers and get an AI avatar that delivers and get an AI avatar that delivers studio-quality video in over 175 studio-quality video in over 175 studio-quality video in over 175 languages. We're up to 20 languages now,

languages. We're up to 20 languages now, languages. We're up to 20 languages now, and we're not the only ones using it. and we're not the only ones using it. and we're not the only ones using it. HeyGen is already used by 30 million HeyGen is already used by 30 million HeyGen is already used by 30 million people, including 85% of the Fortune people, including 85% of the Fortune people, including 85% of the Fortune 100. Whether you're building an audience 100. Whether you're building an audience 100. Whether you're building an audience on social media, launching an online on social media, launching an online on social media, launching an online course, or rolling out training across course, or rolling out training across course, or rolling out training across your team, check out HeyGen now. Your your team, check out HeyGen now. Your your team, check out HeyGen now. Your first three videos are totally free at first three videos are totally free at first three videos are totally free at heygen.com/doac. heygen.com/doac. heygen.com/doac. That's h e y g e n .com/doac. That's h e y g e n .com/doac. That's h e y g e n .com/doac. See you there. See you there. See you there. This is something that I've made for This is something that I've made for This is something that I've made for you. I've realized that the Diary of a you. I've realized that the Diary of a you. I've realized that the Diary of a CEO audience are strivers, whether it's CEO audience are strivers, whether it's CEO audience are strivers, whether it's in business or health. We all have big in business or health. We all have big in business or health. We all have big goals that we want to accomplish. And goals that we want to accomplish. And goals that we want to accomplish. And one of the things I've learned is that one of the things I've learned is that one of the things I've learned is that when you aim at the big, big, big goal, when you aim at the big, big, big goal, when you aim at the big, big, big goal, it can feel incredibly psychologically it can feel incredibly psychologically it can feel incredibly psychologically uncomfortable because it's kind of like uncomfortable because it's kind of like uncomfortable because it's kind of like being stood at the foot of Mount Everest being stood at the foot of Mount Everest being stood at the foot of Mount Everest and looking upwards. The way to and looking upwards. The way to and looking upwards. The way to accomplish your goals is by breaking accomplish your goals is by breaking accomplish your goals is by breaking them down into tiny, small steps, and we them down into tiny, small steps, and we them down into tiny, small steps, and we call this in our team the 1%. And call this in our team the 1%. And call this in our team the 1%. And actually, this philosophy is highly actually, this philosophy is highly actually, this philosophy is highly responsible for much of our success responsible for much of our success responsible for much of our success here. So, what we've done so that you at here. So, what we've done so that you at here. So, what we've done so that you at home can accomplish any big goal that home can accomplish any big goal that home can accomplish any big goal that you have is we've made these 1% diaries, you have is we've made these 1% diaries, you have is we've made these 1% diaries, and we released these last year, and and we released these last year, and and we released these last year, and they all sold out. So, I asked my team they all sold out. So, I asked my team they all sold out. So, I asked my team over and over again to bring the diaries over and over again to bring the diaries over and over again to bring the diaries back, but also to introduce some new back, but also to introduce some new back, but also to introduce some new colors and to make some minor tweaks to colors and to make some minor tweaks to colors and to make some minor tweaks to the diary. So, now we have a better the diary. So, now we have a better the diary. So, now we have a better range for you. So, if you have a big range for you. So, if you have a big range for you. So, if you have a big goal in mind and you need a framework goal in mind and you need a framework goal in mind and you need a framework and a process and some motivation, then and a process and some motivation, then and a process and some motivation, then I highly recommend you get one of these I highly recommend you get one of these I highly recommend you get one of these diaries before they all sell out once diaries before they all sell out once diaries before they all sell out once again. And you can get yours at the again. And you can get yours at the again. And you can get yours at the diary.com.

diary.com. diary.com. And if you want the link, the link is in And if you want the link, the link is in And if you want the link, the link is in the description below. the description below. the description below. Let's talk about the chronic baby bust. Let's talk about the chronic baby bust. Let's talk about the chronic baby bust. I've been hearing a lot in the news. I I've been hearing a lot in the news. I I've been hearing a lot in the news. I think there were some articles that think there were some articles that think there were some articles that actually came out this week in the New actually came out this week in the New actually came out this week in the New York Times that talked about the York Times that talked about the York Times that talked about the declining fertility rates and how young declining fertility rates and how young declining fertility rates and how young couples like me, I'm in a you know, I'm couples like me, I'm in a you know, I'm couples like me, I'm in a you know, I'm I'm engaged to a young woman who I'm engaged to a young woman who I'm engaged to a young woman who and me and me and her are trying to have and me and me and her are trying to have and me and me and her are trying to have a child now. a child now. a child now. Um it's not not always a straight line Um it's not not always a straight line Um it's not not always a straight line to having a child. Yeah, I think you're to having a child. Yeah, I think you're to having a child. Yeah, I think you're kind of sold the idea that it is, that kind of sold the idea that it is, that kind of sold the idea that it is, that you just have sex without a condom and you just have sex without a condom and you just have sex without a condom and then a baby appears, but um lots of then a baby appears, but um lots of then a baby appears, but um lots of young families and lots of my friends young families and lots of my friends young families and lots of my friends who are trying to have kids have gone who are trying to have kids have gone who are trying to have kids have gone for a couple of years for a couple of years for a couple of years trying and struggling to con- to trying and struggling to con- to trying and struggling to con- to conceive. So much so that after doing conceive. So much so that after doing conceive. So much so that after doing this podcast, I started telling some of this podcast, I started telling some of this podcast, I started telling some of my friends that I actually think it's a my friends that I actually think it's a my friends that I actually think it's a good idea to start freezing your eggs, good idea to start freezing your eggs, good idea to start freezing your eggs, embryos, sperm. embryos, sperm. embryos, sperm. Because if it is going to get Because if it is going to get Because if it is going to get increasingly harder, then there might increasingly harder, then there might increasingly harder, then there might need to be need to be need to be um medical interventions, IVF, um medical interventions, IVF, um medical interventions, IVF, um etc. um etc. um etc. for me and my friends. for me and my friends. for me and my friends. If we are if we you know, if we want to If we are if we you know, if we want to If we are if we you know, if we want to have families. But the the problem is as have families. But the the problem is as have families. But the the problem is as well at like 33 years old, um if you well at like 33 years old, um if you well at like 33 years old, um if you look at the data, you're not at your look at the data, you're not at your look at the data, you're not at your peak necessarily in terms of fertility.

peak necessarily in terms of fertility. peak necessarily in terms of fertility. You're somewhere you're coming down the You're somewhere you're coming down the You're somewhere you're coming down the slope as a man. Um and but also as a slope as a man. Um and but also as a slope as a man. Um and but also as a woman. woman. woman. And so, you're kind of fighting time a And so, you're kind of fighting time a And so, you're kind of fighting time a little bit it feels like. little bit it feels like. little bit it feels like. >> Yeah, you are. >> Yeah, you are. >> Yeah, you are. >> And I think my partner feels the same >> And I think my partner feels the same >> And I think my partner feels the same way that we wish we were told a little way that we wish we were told a little way that we wish we were told a little bit earlier about family planning. bit earlier about family planning. bit earlier about family planning. And then I hear that about this fert- And then I hear that about this fert- And then I hear that about this fert- these fertility issues that apparently these fertility issues that apparently these fertility issues that apparently have been caused by toxins have been caused by toxins have been caused by toxins and that sort of chemicals in our and that sort of chemicals in our and that sort of chemicals in our environment. You have spent a long time environment. You have spent a long time environment. You have spent a long time thinking, writing, talking about this. thinking, writing, talking about this. thinking, writing, talking about this. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> I guess the first question is why? Why >> I guess the first question is why? Why >> I guess the first question is why? Why is a guy that's known for managing is a guy that's known for managing is a guy that's known for managing billions and billions and billions of billions and billions and billions of billions and billions and billions of hundreds of billions of dollars talking hundreds of billions of dollars talking hundreds of billions of dollars talking about fertility? about fertility? about fertility? And this sort of baby bust. And this sort of baby bust. And this sort of baby bust. >> Well, >> Well, >> Well, starting starting starting 27 years ago with the 27 years ago with the 27 years ago with the foundation, we were committed to start foundation, we were committed to start foundation, we were committed to start thinking about everything to do with the thinking about everything to do with the thinking about everything to do with the climate. And and you're moving in the climate. And and you're moving in the climate. And and you're moving in the right circle then, because the next right circle then, because the next right circle then, because the next thing is we started to worry about the thing is we started to worry about the thing is we started to worry about the cataclysmic decline in insects. I don't cataclysmic decline in insects. I don't cataclysmic decline in insects. I don't know if you're aware of this, but know if you're aware of this, but know if you're aware of this, but insects appear to have dropped in insects appear to have dropped in insects appear to have dropped in biomass, the weight of the flying biomass, the weight of the flying biomass, the weight of the flying insects, by 50 to 75%.

insects, by 50 to 75%. insects, by 50 to 75%. >> Really? >> Really? >> Really? >> In the last 60, 70 years. >> In the last 60, 70 years. >> In the last 60, 70 years. And E.O. Wilson, the famous ant man, he And E.O. Wilson, the famous ant man, he And E.O. Wilson, the famous ant man, he believed that you know, nature could believed that you know, nature could believed that you know, nature could handle handle handle the loss of humans easily, effortlessly, the loss of humans easily, effortlessly, the loss of humans easily, effortlessly, but it could not handle the loss of of but it could not handle the loss of of but it could not handle the loss of of insects. That insects are in in the insects. That insects are in in the insects. That insects are in in the sense, he felt, sense, he felt, sense, he felt, and and his fellow experts, he and and his fellow experts, he and and his fellow experts, he represented them as thinking the same represented them as thinking the same represented them as thinking the same way, that they Insects are the bedrock way, that they Insects are the bedrock way, that they Insects are the bedrock of nature. of nature. of nature. And if they start to go out of business, And if they start to go out of business, And if they start to go out of business, then the then the then the birds who feed on on them and the birds who feed on on them and the birds who feed on on them and the amphibians, they start to decline, which amphibians, they start to decline, which amphibians, they start to decline, which they have done also catastrophically. they have done also catastrophically. they have done also catastrophically. One thing leads to another, and the One thing leads to another, and the One thing leads to another, and the beetles are no longer beetles are no longer beetles are no longer recycling the forest floor, and recycling the forest floor, and recycling the forest floor, and eventually things won't grow, and eventually things won't grow, and eventually things won't grow, and no one to uh no one to uh no one to uh fertilize the plants, and the damage fertilize the plants, and the damage fertilize the plants, and the damage spreads, and he felt that eventually spreads, and he felt that eventually spreads, and he felt that eventually loss of insects would lead to a more or loss of insects would lead to a more or loss of insects would lead to a more or less complete failure of nature. less complete failure of nature. less complete failure of nature. And and And and And and we would inherit a planet that was no we would inherit a planet that was no we would inherit a planet that was no longer conducive to humans.

longer conducive to humans. longer conducive to humans. We noticed that some of the same effects We noticed that some of the same effects We noticed that some of the same effects are felt uh by humans. are felt uh by humans. are felt uh by humans. And uh a report came out, And uh a report came out, And uh a report came out, Shanna Swan and Hagai Levine, Shanna Swan and Hagai Levine, Shanna Swan and Hagai Levine, I think it finished in 2011, I think it finished in 2011, I think it finished in 2011, and uh it made the case and uh it made the case and uh it made the case that uh sperm count had been dropping that uh sperm count had been dropping that uh sperm count had been dropping had almost halved since the first had almost halved since the first had almost halved since the first reports academic reports in 1970. reports academic reports in 1970. reports academic reports in 1970. So, I immediately said this has the So, I immediately said this has the So, I immediately said this has the feeling of something that is really feeling of something that is really feeling of something that is really important. important. important. We got to study the data and the results We got to study the data and the results We got to study the data and the results came out suggesting that the decline came out suggesting that the decline came out suggesting that the decline rate was accelerating. The decline rate rate was accelerating. The decline rate rate was accelerating. The decline rate this year is 2 and 1/2% a year. You this year is 2 and 1/2% a year. You this year is 2 and 1/2% a year. You don't have to be mathematically that don't have to be mathematically that don't have to be mathematically that literate to realize that a 2 and 1/2% literate to realize that a 2 and 1/2% literate to realize that a 2 and 1/2% decline in your sperm count every year decline in your sperm count every year decline in your sperm count every year is a disastrous level, a non-sustainable is a disastrous level, a non-sustainable is a disastrous level, a non-sustainable level, right? level, right? level, right? >> How long is that going to take for this >> How long is that going to take for this >> How long is that going to take for this my sperm to basically not work? my sperm to basically not work? my sperm to basically not work? >> As far as we can tell, our best guess >> As far as we can tell, our best guess >> As far as we can tell, our best guess is is is that in hunter-gatherer days we had 118 that in hunter-gatherer days we had 118 that in hunter-gatherer days we had 118 million units per milliliter of sperm.

million units per milliliter of sperm. million units per milliliter of sperm. And when the academics came in in 1970, And when the academics came in in 1970, And when the academics came in in 1970, uh uh uh it was down to about 100. it was down to about 100. it was down to about 100. And today it's 35. And today it's 35. And today it's 35. Okay? Okay? Okay? Also, the quality Also, the quality Also, the quality and the mo- motility they call it had and the mo- motility they call it had and the mo- motility they call it had also declined also declined also declined somewhat similarly. somewhat similarly. somewhat similarly. It turns out, luckily for us, that we It turns out, luckily for us, that we It turns out, luckily for us, that we were over-engineered at I like to say were over-engineered at I like to say were over-engineered at I like to say like a great Victorian bridge. like a great Victorian bridge. like a great Victorian bridge. Nature doesn't take any risks and and Nature doesn't take any risks and and Nature doesn't take any risks and and you have more than you need. And it it you have more than you need. And it it you have more than you need. And it it appears, again, a good guess is about 45 appears, again, a good guess is about 45 appears, again, a good guess is about 45 million units million units million units is what you need to be able to get is what you need to be able to get is what you need to be able to get pregnant without any difficulty. And pregnant without any difficulty. And pregnant without any difficulty. And that was hit about 15 to 20 years ago. that was hit about 15 to 20 years ago. that was hit about 15 to 20 years ago. The number of young couples who needed The number of young couples who needed The number of young couples who needed help 15 or 20 years ago help 15 or 20 years ago help 15 or 20 years ago uh was nil, basically. uh was nil, basically. uh was nil, basically. And for this reason, that none of them And for this reason, that none of them And for this reason, that none of them had a a chronic lack of sperm count in had a a chronic lack of sperm count in had a a chronic lack of sperm count in round numbers. round numbers. round numbers. And now And now And now the World Health says it's about the World Health says it's about the World Health says it's about 17%.

17%. 17%. Okay? 17% of young couples could use Okay? 17% of young couples could use Okay? 17% of young couples could use some help today. some help today. some help today. It which means that instead of, you It which means that instead of, you It which means that instead of, you know, just trying for a week or two or know, just trying for a week or two or know, just trying for a week or two or three or four or five or six you're three or four or five or six you're three or four or five or six you're trying for months and months. trying for months and months. trying for months and months. And And And everybody knows people now who fall in everybody knows people now who fall in everybody knows people now who fall in that category. Which is exactly what you that category. Which is exactly what you that category. Which is exactly what you would expect if you've gone from zero to would expect if you've gone from zero to would expect if you've gone from zero to 17%. 17%. 17%. But this is the killer. Shanna Swan But this is the killer. Shanna Swan But this is the killer. Shanna Swan and my colleague and I kind of thought and my colleague and I kind of thought and my colleague and I kind of thought about this thing separately and about this thing separately and about this thing separately and independently and we independently and we independently and we we worked out doesn't take a great brain we worked out doesn't take a great brain we worked out doesn't take a great brain that in 20 to 25 years the young couple that in 20 to 25 years the young couple that in 20 to 25 years the young couple will need help. I mean this is tomorrow. will need help. I mean this is tomorrow. will need help. I mean this is tomorrow. You know this is not 200 years from now. You know this is not 200 years from now. You know this is not 200 years from now. In 20 to 25 years the average young In 20 to 25 years the average young In 20 to 25 years the average young couple will need help getting pregnant. couple will need help getting pregnant. couple will need help getting pregnant. >> Dr. Swan's projection indicates that if >> Dr. Swan's projection indicates that if >> Dr. Swan's projection indicates that if the current rate of decline continues the current rate of decline continues the current rate of decline continues unchecked the medium male sperm count is unchecked the medium male sperm count is unchecked the medium male sperm count is on track to hit zero on track to hit zero on track to hit zero by 2045.

by 2045. by 2045. >> Wow, yeah. >> Wow, yeah. >> Wow, yeah. >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> That is >> That is >> That is that means the medium couple is not that means the medium couple is not that means the medium couple is not going to have children without a lot of going to have children without a lot of going to have children without a lot of help. help. help. >> It means half the male population will >> It means half the male population will >> It means half the male population will have zero viable sperm and the remaining have zero viable sperm and the remaining have zero viable sperm and the remaining half will be right on the edge of half will be right on the edge of half will be right on the edge of functional infertility. functional infertility. functional infertility. >> A few of them will still have plenty and >> A few of them will still have plenty and >> A few of them will still have plenty and maybe 10% who are really perfectly maybe 10% who are really perfectly maybe 10% who are really perfectly in decent condition. in decent condition. in decent condition. Because there's a huge distribution Because there's a huge distribution Because there's a huge distribution range today. range today. range today. You know there are there are people You know there are there are people You know there are there are people today who still have 200 million you today who still have 200 million you today who still have 200 million you know better than the hunter-gatherers. know better than the hunter-gatherers. know better than the hunter-gatherers. But it's uh But it's uh But it's uh >> And what is causing this and how do we >> And what is causing this and how do we >> And what is causing this and how do we stop it? stop it? stop it? >> Shanna would say the environment around >> Shanna would say the environment around >> Shanna would say the environment around you you you of mainly plastics. of mainly plastics. of mainly plastics. Plastics are leaching Plastics are leaching Plastics are leaching uh toxins and the particles of plastics uh toxins and the particles of plastics uh toxins and the particles of plastics you have in your brain and in your body you have in your brain and in your body you have in your brain and in your body which we now know is quite substantial which we now know is quite substantial which we now know is quite substantial are also leaching toxins.

are also leaching toxins. are also leaching toxins. And these toxins are what they call And these toxins are what they call And these toxins are what they call endocrine disruptors. They mess with endocrine disruptors. They mess with endocrine disruptors. They mess with your hormones. your hormones. your hormones. You should expect them to lower your You should expect them to lower your You should expect them to lower your fertility. fertility. fertility. And yet, the people who specialize And yet, the people who specialize And yet, the people who specialize in fertility problems in fertility problems in fertility problems and write books about it, none of them and write books about it, none of them and write books about it, none of them mention toxicity. mention toxicity. mention toxicity. They mention the hundred perfectly solid They mention the hundred perfectly solid They mention the hundred perfectly solid reasons why people are choosing reasons why people are choosing reasons why people are choosing uh to have fewer children. uh to have fewer children. uh to have fewer children. >> Endocrine disrupting chemicals like >> Endocrine disrupting chemicals like >> Endocrine disrupting chemicals like phthalates, phthalates, phthalates, >> Like phthalates. >> Like phthalates. >> Like phthalates. >> which are found in cosmetics, shampoos, >> which are found in cosmetics, shampoos, >> which are found in cosmetics, shampoos, food packaging, etc. They actively lower food packaging, etc. They actively lower food packaging, etc. They actively lower testosterone production in male fetuses testosterone production in male fetuses testosterone production in male fetuses during the first trimester, permanently during the first trimester, permanently during the first trimester, permanently stunting reproductive reproductive stunting reproductive reproductive stunting reproductive reproductive capacity before birth. capacity before birth. capacity before birth. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> BPAs, which are um what they call the >> BPAs, which are um what they call the >> BPAs, which are um what they call the biphosphonates? biphosphonates? biphosphonates? >> Yes. Something like that. >> Yes. Something like that. >> Yes. Something like that. >> Used to make plastics hard, line tin >> Used to make plastics hard, line tin >> Used to make plastics hard, line tin cans, and coat thermal store receipts. cans, and coat thermal store receipts. cans, and coat thermal store receipts. Um they are synthetic estrogens. They Um they are synthetic estrogens. They Um they are synthetic estrogens. They flood the male body with female hormones flood the male body with female hormones flood the male body with female hormones and signals crashing sperm count and and signals crashing sperm count and and signals crashing sperm count and motility. motility. motility. PFAs, forever chemicals used in nonstick PFAs, forever chemicals used in nonstick PFAs, forever chemicals used in nonstick pans, teflons, waterproof rain jackets, pans, teflons, waterproof rain jackets, pans, teflons, waterproof rain jackets, and stain resisting carpets. They break and stain resisting carpets. They break and stain resisting carpets. They break down in nature, accumulate in human down in nature, accumulate in human down in nature, accumulate in human blood, and are directly linked to lower blood, and are directly linked to lower blood, and are directly linked to lower sperm volume. And then the microplastics sperm volume. And then the microplastics sperm volume. And then the microplastics you talked about, the chosen chose you talked about, the chosen chose you talked about, the chosen chose Trojan horse. One of the shocking things Trojan horse. One of the shocking things Trojan horse. One of the shocking things that I read was that it's been that I read was that it's been that I read was that it's been discovered that they are physically discovered that they are physically discovered that they are physically embedded in human placentas.

embedded in human placentas. embedded in human placentas. >> Yes. Isn't that amazing? >> Yes. Isn't that amazing? >> Yes. Isn't that amazing? >> Breast milk and human testicles. And >> Breast milk and human testicles. And >> Breast milk and human testicles. And there was a major study, I think we all there was a major study, I think we all there was a major study, I think we all heard about in 2024, that found heard about in 2024, that found heard about in 2024, that found microplastics in 100% of human microplastics in 100% of human microplastics in 100% of human testicular tissues tested. testicular tissues tested. testicular tissues tested. 100%. And lastly, biological stresses. 100%. And lastly, biological stresses. 100%. And lastly, biological stresses. So, me and you being sat down on these So, me and you being sat down on these So, me and you being sat down on these chairs, chairs, chairs, heats our testicles to a point where the heats our testicles to a point where the heats our testicles to a point where the sperms die. Heated car seats, hot sperms die. Heated car seats, hot sperms die. Heated car seats, hot laptops, they actively cook the sperm. laptops, they actively cook the sperm. laptops, they actively cook the sperm. And lastly, obesity. And lastly, obesity. And lastly, obesity. >> Yes. And of course, smoking you, which >> Yes. And of course, smoking you, which >> Yes. And of course, smoking you, which somehow slipped through the net. somehow slipped through the net. somehow slipped through the net. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> But um >> But um >> But um there is a whole other branch, there is a whole other branch, there is a whole other branch, pesticides on your food. Now, if you pesticides on your food. Now, if you pesticides on your food. Now, if you give me time, I'll tell you about these give me time, I'll tell you about these give me time, I'll tell you about these two little studies. two little studies. two little studies. They're very small, and you might ignore They're very small, and you might ignore They're very small, and you might ignore them except they were done by Harvard them except they were done by Harvard them except they were done by Harvard and Mass General, which is candidate for and Mass General, which is candidate for and Mass General, which is candidate for the best hospital in America. the best hospital in America. the best hospital in America. And, uh they had a clinic for people And, uh they had a clinic for people And, uh they had a clinic for people having problem getting pregnant. having problem getting pregnant. having problem getting pregnant. And, uh they they ran it out of that. And, uh they they ran it out of that. And, uh they they ran it out of that. They had 180 men.

They had 180 men. They had 180 men. And, they got them to self-report on And, they got them to self-report on And, they got them to self-report on what they were eating. Were they eating what they were eating. Were they eating what they were eating. Were they eating the dirty dozen? Were they eating melons the dirty dozen? Were they eating melons the dirty dozen? Were they eating melons and bananas that have lots of and bananas that have lots of and bananas that have lots of protection? protection? protection? At the end of uh 6 months, At the end of uh 6 months, At the end of uh 6 months, the the guys who reported to eat the the the guys who reported to eat the the the guys who reported to eat the least bad least bad least bad versus the quarter that ate the worst, versus the quarter that ate the worst, versus the quarter that ate the worst, there was a doubling of sperm count. Can there was a doubling of sperm count. Can there was a doubling of sperm count. Can you believe it? At the top category, the you believe it? At the top category, the you believe it? At the top category, the more fruit and veggies you ate, the more fruit and veggies you ate, the more fruit and veggies you ate, the better your sperm count. In the bottom better your sperm count. In the bottom better your sperm count. In the bottom quartile, the more they ate, the worse quartile, the more they ate, the worse quartile, the more they ate, the worse their sperm count. their sperm count. their sperm count. It was a dramatic result, but two to one It was a dramatic result, but two to one It was a dramatic result, but two to one between the top and the bottom. And, between the top and the bottom. And, between the top and the bottom. And, then 2 years later, they did a very then 2 years later, they did a very then 2 years later, they did a very similar study with women who were having similar study with women who were having similar study with women who were having trouble. trouble. trouble. And, at the end of their 9 months of And, at the end of their 9 months of And, at the end of their 9 months of self-reporting, the ones who ate the self-reporting, the ones who ate the self-reporting, the ones who ate the least badly had 68% successful live least badly had 68% successful live least badly had 68% successful live births, bearing in mind this was a births, bearing in mind this was a births, bearing in mind this was a fertility clinic, and the bottom fertility clinic, and the bottom fertility clinic, and the bottom quartile 38%. So, once again, nearly quartile 38%. So, once again, nearly quartile 38%. So, once again, nearly double. double. double. I mean, and and it's life and death. I I mean, and and it's life and death. I I mean, and and it's life and death. I mean, these are really important. And, mean, these are really important. And, mean, these are really important. And, this was only based on what they ate.

this was only based on what they ate. this was only based on what they ate. Because pesticides are full of these Because pesticides are full of these Because pesticides are full of these toxins, and they are delivered straight toxins, and they are delivered straight toxins, and they are delivered straight into your body. You eat the damn things. into your body. You eat the damn things. into your body. You eat the damn things. It's not just they're on the surface. It's not just they're on the surface. It's not just they're on the surface. You can wash some of that away, but You can wash some of that away, but You can wash some of that away, but they're impregnated part of the they're impregnated part of the they're impregnated part of the structure of the berry. structure of the berry. structure of the berry. Berries, Berries, Berries, apples, pears, peaches, apples, pears, peaches, apples, pears, peaches, and finally, and finally, and finally, um uh spinach uh are really bad and are um uh spinach uh are really bad and are um uh spinach uh are really bad and are the top end. The bananas and the the top end. The bananas and the the top end. The bananas and the oranges, and the melons are uh fine. So, oranges, and the melons are uh fine. So, oranges, and the melons are uh fine. So, if you eat these damn things that if you eat these damn things that if you eat these damn things that designed to kill our cousins, the designed to kill our cousins, the designed to kill our cousins, the insects, and and the weeds, insects, and and the weeds, insects, and and the weeds, and the funguses, why would you expect and the funguses, why would you expect and the funguses, why would you expect them not to do a terrible job on humans? them not to do a terrible job on humans? them not to do a terrible job on humans? And we stuff them in our system. And we stuff them in our system. And we stuff them in our system. And the fetus, it turns out, is 100 to And the fetus, it turns out, is 100 to And the fetus, it turns out, is 100 to 1,000 times more vulnerable 1,000 times more vulnerable 1,000 times more vulnerable than we are out in the out in the world. than we are out in the out in the world. than we are out in the out in the world. For example, if your mother smokes, For example, if your mother smokes, For example, if your mother smokes, it's going to do about the same damage it's going to do about the same damage it's going to do about the same damage as if you smoked for the rest of your as if you smoked for the rest of your as if you smoked for the rest of your life. life. life. >> Hm. Wow.

>> Hm. Wow. >> Hm. Wow. >> And you think about what the fetus is >> And you think about what the fetus is >> And you think about what the fetus is plugged into the system, and how it's plugged into the system, and how it's plugged into the system, and how it's forming everything. It doesn't seem the forming everything. It doesn't seem the forming everything. It doesn't seem the most unreasonable thing that it would be most unreasonable thing that it would be most unreasonable thing that it would be much more sensitive. And there are much more sensitive. And there are much more sensitive. And there are people out there people out there people out there fussing quite reasonably about the first fussing quite reasonably about the first fussing quite reasonably about the first 1,000 days of life. 1,000 days of life. 1,000 days of life. But actually, that is nothing like as But actually, that is nothing like as But actually, that is nothing like as important important important as the 270 days in the womb. as the 270 days in the womb. as the 270 days in the womb. >> Atrazine. >> Atrazine. >> Atrazine. Have you heard of atrazine? Have you heard of atrazine? Have you heard of atrazine? >> have. >> have. >> have. >> Atrazine, um referred to as the chemical >> Atrazine, um referred to as the chemical >> Atrazine, um referred to as the chemical castrator. It is the second most widely castrator. It is the second most widely castrator. It is the second most widely used herbicide in the United States, used herbicide in the United States, used herbicide in the United States, sprayed heavily on things like corn and sprayed heavily on things like corn and sprayed heavily on things like corn and sugar canes. sugar canes. sugar canes. And there was this crazy study which was And there was this crazy study which was And there was this crazy study which was peer-reviewed out of UC Berkeley that peer-reviewed out of UC Berkeley that peer-reviewed out of UC Berkeley that showed exposure to atrazine at levels showed exposure to atrazine at levels showed exposure to atrazine at levels below the EPA's considered safe for below the EPA's considered safe for below the EPA's considered safe for drinking drinking drinking um levels, completely chemically um levels, completely chemically um levels, completely chemically castrated male frogs, turning 10% of castrated male frogs, turning 10% of castrated male frogs, turning 10% of them into fully functional females them into fully functional females them into fully functional females capable of laying eggs. In humans, it is capable of laying eggs. In humans, it is capable of laying eggs. In humans, it is linked to severe drops in sperm motility linked to severe drops in sperm motility linked to severe drops in sperm motility and testosterone.

and testosterone. and testosterone. >> And yet, we avoid the topic. >> And yet, we avoid the topic. >> And yet, we avoid the topic. We avoid the topic because it's We avoid the topic because it's We avoid the topic because it's it's pessimistic. We're not fighting the it's pessimistic. We're not fighting the it's pessimistic. We're not fighting the data. data. data. >> We just don't want to talk about it. >> We just don't want to talk about it. >> We just don't want to talk about it. >> want to talk about it. We don't want to >> want to talk about it. We don't want to >> want to talk about it. We don't want to talk about bear markets. talk about bear markets. talk about bear markets. We don't want to talk We don't want to talk We don't want to talk about bad climate changes, even though about bad climate changes, even though about bad climate changes, even though it's bludgeoning us. This year could be it's bludgeoning us. This year could be it's bludgeoning us. This year could be the worst the worst the worst hot year hot year hot year in history. in history. in history. We are set up We are set up We are set up because of the accident of the El Niño because of the accident of the El Niño because of the accident of the El Niño to have perhaps the worst droughts and to have perhaps the worst droughts and to have perhaps the worst droughts and the hottest weather ever recorded, the hottest weather ever recorded, the hottest weather ever recorded, starting about now. starting about now. starting about now. So, brace yourselves. But, we don't want So, brace yourselves. But, we don't want So, brace yourselves. But, we don't want to talk about that. We don't want to to talk about that. We don't want to to talk about that. We don't want to talk about toxicity. We don't want to talk about toxicity. We don't want to talk about toxicity. We don't want to talk about running out of resources. Oh, talk about running out of resources. Oh, talk about running out of resources. Oh, we just don't do bad news. And I have we just don't do bad news. And I have we just don't do bad news. And I have never seen anything like this, this never seen anything like this, this never seen anything like this, this fertility thing, where the data is fertility thing, where the data is fertility thing, where the data is horrific. The baby bust is measurable. horrific. The baby bust is measurable. horrific. The baby bust is measurable. The sperm count is one of the few things The sperm count is one of the few things The sperm count is one of the few things you can really measure. Do they really you can really measure. Do they really you can really measure. Do they really think if you have declining sperm count, think if you have declining sperm count, think if you have declining sperm count, the future is great?

the future is great? the future is great? Do they really think that the economy Do they really think that the economy Do they really think that the economy will function will function will function if the number of 20-year-olds entering if the number of 20-year-olds entering if the number of 20-year-olds entering the market starts to drop like a stone? the market starts to drop like a stone? the market starts to drop like a stone? In Japan, you know what their In Japan, you know what their In Japan, you know what their 20-year-old is? It's 50% of what it was 20-year-old is? It's 50% of what it was 20-year-old is? It's 50% of what it was in 1948. in 1948. in 1948. >> What is 50%? >> What is 50%? >> What is 50%? >> 50%. Not down 15 or 3.5, 50% less. >> 50%. Not down 15 or 3.5, 50% less. >> 50%. Not down 15 or 3.5, 50% less. >> 50% less 20-year-olds? >> 50% less 20-year-olds? >> 50% less 20-year-olds? >> 20-year-olds that drive the market, that >> 20-year-olds that drive the market, that >> 20-year-olds that drive the market, that offer themselves for military service. offer themselves for military service. offer themselves for military service. >> What do we do about this? >> What do we do about this? >> What do we do about this? >> We have two things. >> We have two things. >> We have two things. We've got to We've got to We've got to detoxify the world, which is detoxify the world, which is detoxify the world, which is intellectually easy. You ban poisonous intellectually easy. You ban poisonous intellectually easy. You ban poisonous chemicals. chemicals. chemicals. And we've made in the EU And we've made in the EU And we've made in the EU pretty good start. pretty good start. pretty good start. My favorite example and everybody's My favorite example and everybody's My favorite example and everybody's favorite example is cosmetics. favorite example is cosmetics. favorite example is cosmetics. Cosmetics, you don't actually eat it, Cosmetics, you don't actually eat it, Cosmetics, you don't actually eat it, but you rub it on your skin, which is but you rub it on your skin, which is but you rub it on your skin, which is the second worst thing to do. the second worst thing to do. the second worst thing to do. And there are 10,000 chemicals in And there are 10,000 chemicals in And there are 10,000 chemicals in cosmetics. cosmetics. cosmetics. And the EU has banned 1,500. If they ban And the EU has banned 1,500. If they ban And the EU has banned 1,500. If they ban the right 1,500, that could be 3/4 of the right 1,500, that could be 3/4 of the right 1,500, that could be 3/4 of the battle, right? Canada's banned 550.

the battle, right? Canada's banned 550. the battle, right? Canada's banned 550. And the US has banned 12. I am not And the US has banned 12. I am not And the US has banned 12. I am not kidding you. kidding you. kidding you. So, The thing about toxicity is it is So, The thing about toxicity is it is So, The thing about toxicity is it is regional. If one country if Denmark or regional. If one country if Denmark or regional. If one country if Denmark or the EU or the UK wants to look after its the EU or the UK wants to look after its the EU or the UK wants to look after its chemicals, they will live longer and chemicals, they will live longer and chemicals, they will live longer and have better health. If the US wants to have better health. If the US wants to have better health. If the US wants to put the corporations first, they will put the corporations first, they will put the corporations first, they will have shorter lives. Do you know the life have shorter lives. Do you know the life have shorter lives. Do you know the life expectancy difference between the US and expectancy difference between the US and expectancy difference between the US and Sweden has gone from 2 years to 6 years Sweden has gone from 2 years to 6 years Sweden has gone from 2 years to 6 years in the last 70 years? in the last 70 years? in the last 70 years? I wrote in my quarterly letter my estate I wrote in my quarterly letter my estate I wrote in my quarterly letter my estate would be willing to bet you that in 50 would be willing to bet you that in 50 would be willing to bet you that in 50 years it'll be 8 or 10. years it'll be 8 or 10. years it'll be 8 or 10. >> I don't quite think people in the United >> I don't quite think people in the United >> I don't quite think people in the United States realize the difference in the States realize the difference in the States realize the difference in the products they consume here versus other products they consume here versus other products they consume here versus other parts of the world. And you know, parts of the world. And you know, parts of the world. And you know, >> No, absolutely not. >> No, absolutely not. >> No, absolutely not. >> Brits fly over here and actually we had >> Brits fly over here and actually we had >> Brits fly over here and actually we had my my barber my my barber Damon and he my my barber my my barber Damon and he my my barber my my barber Damon and he flew over here to give me a haircut last flew over here to give me a haircut last flew over here to give me a haircut last week. He said, "Oh gosh, I don't feel week. He said, "Oh gosh, I don't feel week. He said, "Oh gosh, I don't feel good." He said, "I went and got some good." He said, "I went and got some good." He said, "I went and got some food here and I really just don't feel food here and I really just don't feel food here and I really just don't feel good." And he says, "Every time I come good." And he says, "Every time I come good." And he says, "Every time I come over here I don't feel good." And me and over here I don't feel good." And me and over here I don't feel good." And me and my team we used to fly over here before my team we used to fly over here before my team we used to fly over here before I moved here for a couple of weeks a I moved here for a couple of weeks a I moved here for a couple of weeks a year to film the show and whenever we'd year to film the show and whenever we'd year to film the show and whenever we'd fly back not only would I be much fly back not only would I be much fly back not only would I be much fatter, um but we'd all feel a little fatter, um but we'd all feel a little fatter, um but we'd all feel a little bit more like sluggish, is the way I'd bit more like sluggish, is the way I'd bit more like sluggish, is the way I'd describe it, from eating the food here.

describe it, from eating the food here. describe it, from eating the food here. And it almost felt quite clear that And it almost felt quite clear that And it almost felt quite clear that there's like something in the food that there's like something in the food that there's like something in the food that our bodies our bodies our bodies just isn't used to in the UK. And when just isn't used to in the UK. And when just isn't used to in the UK. And when you look at the toxicity of the United you look at the toxicity of the United you look at the toxicity of the United States versus Europe, it's quite clear. States versus Europe, it's quite clear. States versus Europe, it's quite clear. I mean, the US currently permits the use I mean, the US currently permits the use I mean, the US currently permits the use of 85 agricultural pesticides that are of 85 agricultural pesticides that are of 85 agricultural pesticides that are completely banned in the EU, China and completely banned in the EU, China and completely banned in the EU, China and Brazil. The US sprays over 300 million Brazil. The US sprays over 300 million Brazil. The US sprays over 300 million pounds per year of pesticides that are pounds per year of pesticides that are pounds per year of pesticides that are deemed too dangerous to be legally used deemed too dangerous to be legally used deemed too dangerous to be legally used in Europe, including that one I said in Europe, including that one I said in Europe, including that one I said about the frog's called atrazine. about the frog's called atrazine. about the frog's called atrazine. >> atrazine >> atrazine >> atrazine >> Which the EU banned over two decades >> Which the EU banned over two decades >> Which the EU banned over two decades ago. We look at cosmetics, which you ago. We look at cosmetics, which you ago. We look at cosmetics, which you were talking about then, what you put on were talking about then, what you put on were talking about then, what you put on your skin obviously goes into your your skin obviously goes into your your skin obviously goes into your bloodstream and so the EU has banned or bloodstream and so the EU has banned or bloodstream and so the EU has banned or heavily restricted over 1,300 chemicals heavily restricted over 1,300 chemicals heavily restricted over 1,300 chemicals in cosmetics and personal care products in cosmetics and personal care products in cosmetics and personal care products due to toxicity and hormone disruption. due to toxicity and hormone disruption. due to toxicity and hormone disruption. The US and the FDA has banned 11. In The US and the FDA has banned 11. In The US and the FDA has banned 11. In terms of food, the US allows potassium terms of food, the US allows potassium terms of food, the US allows potassium bromate, which is a known carcinogen, bromate, which is a known carcinogen, bromate, which is a known carcinogen, cancer-causing, used to make fluffy cancer-causing, used to make fluffy cancer-causing, used to make fluffy dough bread, and BHA dough bread, and BHA dough bread, and BHA {um} / BHT, which are preservatives {um} / BHT, which are preservatives {um} / BHT, which are preservatives linked to hormone disruption. Both are linked to hormone disruption. Both are linked to hormone disruption. Both are strictly banned from human consumption strictly banned from human consumption strictly banned from human consumption in the UK and EU and Canada and China.

in the UK and EU and Canada and China. in the UK and EU and Canada and China. And lastly, the US {um} allows titanium And lastly, the US {um} allows titanium And lastly, the US {um} allows titanium dioxide, used to make candy smell like dioxide, used to make candy smell like dioxide, used to make candy smell like Skittles bright white, Skittles bright white, Skittles bright white, and synthetic dyes like red 40, which and synthetic dyes like red 40, which and synthetic dyes like red 40, which require strict warning labels or require strict warning labels or require strict warning labels or outright bans in Europe due to DNA outright bans in Europe due to DNA outright bans in Europe due to DNA damage and neurodevelopmental issues in damage and neurodevelopmental issues in damage and neurodevelopmental issues in kids. I'll give you one more. A recent kids. I'll give you one more. A recent kids. I'll give you one more. A recent US Geological Survey found that at least US Geological Survey found that at least US Geological Survey found that at least 45% of all US tap water is contaminated 45% of all US tap water is contaminated 45% of all US tap water is contaminated with PFAs, those forever chemicals we with PFAs, those forever chemicals we with PFAs, those forever chemicals we talked about earlier, the very chemicals talked about earlier, the very chemicals talked about earlier, the very chemicals directly linked to crashing sperm counts directly linked to crashing sperm counts directly linked to crashing sperm counts and testicular cancer. The US has and testicular cancer. The US has and testicular cancer. The US has historically allowed PFAs levels in historically allowed PFAs levels in historically allowed PFAs levels in drinking water drinking water drinking water drastically higher than the EU, the drastically higher than the EU, the drastically higher than the EU, the United the European Union United the European Union United the European Union considers safe. considers safe. considers safe. >> Let us just say that the EU is forever >> Let us just say that the EU is forever >> Let us just say that the EU is forever giving exemptions and extensions and is giving exemptions and extensions and is giving exemptions and extensions and is far from perfect and has a lot of far from perfect and has a lot of far from perfect and has a lot of corporate pushback. And uh it's just corporate pushback. And uh it's just corporate pushback. And uh it's just much less bad than the US. much less bad than the US. much less bad than the US. >> And the US has worse life expectancy. >> And the US has worse life expectancy. >> And the US has worse life expectancy. >> It does, and it's the only rich country >> It does, and it's the only rich country >> It does, and it's the only rich country in the world where 15 years ago they had in the world where 15 years ago they had in the world where 15 years ago they had the same life expectancy as they have the same life expectancy as they have the same life expectancy as they have today.

today. today. >> One um actionable piece of advice for >> One um actionable piece of advice for >> One um actionable piece of advice for anyone listening that might find this anyone listening that might find this anyone listening that might find this all quite um all quite um all quite um overwhelming cuz you know, lots of overwhelming cuz you know, lots of overwhelming cuz you know, lots of things around us from receipts to the things around us from receipts to the things around us from receipts to the pans we use to pans we use to pans we use to range jackets contain these chemicals, range jackets contain these chemicals, range jackets contain these chemicals, is there are apps out there is there are apps out there is there are apps out there where you can scan the chemicals in the where you can scan the chemicals in the where you can scan the chemicals in the foods that you're buying to check if foods that you're buying to check if foods that you're buying to check if they contain these endocrine disrupting they contain these endocrine disrupting they contain these endocrine disrupting these hormone disrupting chemicals. I'm these hormone disrupting chemicals. I'm these hormone disrupting chemicals. I'm not affiliated [clears throat] with any not affiliated [clears throat] with any not affiliated [clears throat] with any of them, but there's one called Yuka, of them, but there's one called Yuka, of them, but there's one called Yuka, YUKA, that I know is very easy for sort YUKA, that I know is very easy for sort YUKA, that I know is very easy for sort of everyday scanning of products. You of everyday scanning of products. You of everyday scanning of products. You can just scan the barcode and it'll tell can just scan the barcode and it'll tell can just scan the barcode and it'll tell you it'll give it a rating score out of you it'll give it a rating score out of you it'll give it a rating score out of 100. There's EWG's Healthy Living 100. There's EWG's Healthy Living 100. There's EWG's Healthy Living um app which is the scientific gold um app which is the scientific gold um app which is the scientific gold standard run by the Environmental standard run by the Environmental standard run by the Environmental Working Group a major toxic chemical Working Group a major toxic chemical Working Group a major toxic chemical watchdog. You can scan barcodes or watchdog. You can scan barcodes or watchdog. You can scan barcodes or search for food, cleaning supplies or search for food, cleaning supplies or search for food, cleaning supplies or cosmetics. There's Think Dirty as well cosmetics. There's Think Dirty as well cosmetics. There's Think Dirty as well which is great for cosmetic shampoos and which is great for cosmetic shampoos and which is great for cosmetic shampoos and skin care. It exposes the toxic truth skin care. It exposes the toxic truth skin care. It exposes the toxic truth hiding in beauty products. Um and then hiding in beauty products. Um and then hiding in beauty products. Um and then there's Clear Ya which is Clear Ya. Best there's Clear Ya which is Clear Ya. Best there's Clear Ya which is Clear Ya. Best for online shopping. It's an app in your for online shopping. It's an app in your for online shopping. It's an app in your web browser and instead of scanning web browser and instead of scanning web browser and instead of scanning barcodes in your house barcodes in your house barcodes in your house while you're shopping online, it's so if while you're shopping online, it's so if while you're shopping online, it's so if you add a say like a shampoo or lotion you add a say like a shampoo or lotion you add a say like a shampoo or lotion to your Amazon or Target or Walmart to your Amazon or Target or Walmart to your Amazon or Target or Walmart basket, it automatically pops up with an basket, it automatically pops up with an basket, it automatically pops up with an alert telling you about the ingredients alert telling you about the ingredients alert telling you about the ingredients list that is within those chemicals. But list that is within those chemicals. But list that is within those chemicals. But but I think that gives something a but I think that gives something a but I think that gives something a little bit actual and arms you with at little bit actual and arms you with at little bit actual and arms you with at least a tool to navigate this crazy least a tool to navigate this crazy least a tool to navigate this crazy environment. And obviously AI is great environment. And obviously AI is great environment. And obviously AI is great at this as well. You can take pictures at this as well. You can take pictures at this as well. You can take pictures of things and ask it questions.

of things and ask it questions. of things and ask it questions. >> And what we really need is a kind of >> And what we really need is a kind of >> And what we really need is a kind of green Amazon where everything is green Amazon where everything is green Amazon where everything is guaranteed food, bed, clothes, guaranteed food, bed, clothes, guaranteed food, bed, clothes, everything. everything. everything. And that would be very handy indeed. And that would be very handy indeed. And that would be very handy indeed. Someone you could trust that would Someone you could trust that would Someone you could trust that would absolutely guarantee the whole line of absolutely guarantee the whole line of absolutely guarantee the whole line of products that you would order. Not products that you would order. Not products that you would order. Not impossible and I think done well and impossible and I think done well and impossible and I think done well and someone could make money at it. someone could make money at it. someone could make money at it. >> What would advice would you give to your >> What would advice would you give to your >> What would advice would you give to your kids on a personal level if they're kids on a personal level if they're kids on a personal level if they're trying to stay healthy in a toxic world? trying to stay healthy in a toxic world? trying to stay healthy in a toxic world? >> Simple advice and I know you like this >> Simple advice and I know you like this >> Simple advice and I know you like this is pregnant women are much more is pregnant women are much more is pregnant women are much more important than anybody else in this important than anybody else in this important than anybody else in this field. field. field. If you could persuade pregnant women A If you could persuade pregnant women A If you could persuade pregnant women A to have no cosmetics, save a lot of to have no cosmetics, save a lot of to have no cosmetics, save a lot of money, no cosmetics for 9 months and money, no cosmetics for 9 months and money, no cosmetics for 9 months and then B invest some of that money from then B invest some of that money from then B invest some of that money from your cosmetics or all of it in buying your cosmetics or all of it in buying your cosmetics or all of it in buying organic berries if you have to have organic berries if you have to have organic berries if you have to have berries, apples, oranges, peaches berries, apples, oranges, peaches berries, apples, oranges, peaches what they call the dirty dozen here. what they call the dirty dozen here. what they call the dirty dozen here. If you did that If you did that If you did that I think as much as half of all the I think as much as half of all the I think as much as half of all the trouble disappears. trouble disappears. trouble disappears. And that's a huge fraction and it's And that's a huge fraction and it's And that's a huge fraction and it's easily acquired.

easily acquired. easily acquired. You know, I I I addressing the 100 You know, I I I addressing the 100 You know, I I I addressing the 100 things around in your environment, you things around in your environment, you things around in your environment, you have to get to that. have to get to that. have to get to that. Typically, if you're lucky, you do one Typically, if you're lucky, you do one Typically, if you're lucky, you do one thing after another. You get the gas thing after another. You get the gas thing after another. You get the gas stove first, which is really noxious, stove first, which is really noxious, stove first, which is really noxious, and then you work your way the black and then you work your way the black and then you work your way the black plastics, the Teflon frying pan. You plastics, the Teflon frying pan. You plastics, the Teflon frying pan. You work your way around it. Compared to work your way around it. Compared to work your way around it. Compared to that, that, that, no cosmetics, no bad food, no cosmetics, no bad food, no cosmetics, no bad food, or make it organic. That's a piece of or make it organic. That's a piece of or make it organic. That's a piece of cake. That is easy. It will save you cake. That is easy. It will save you cake. That is easy. It will save you huge amount that you will never huge amount that you will never huge amount that you will never appreciate because you'll never know how appreciate because you'll never know how appreciate because you'll never know how much better your children are than they much better your children are than they much better your children are than they would have been. would have been. would have been. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> But, it's not only your children, by the >> But, it's not only your children, by the >> But, it's not only your children, by the way. way. way. For women, you know, you're talking For women, you know, you're talking For women, you know, you're talking about in particular because of the eggs, about in particular because of the eggs, about in particular because of the eggs, they are Every egg is all there in the they are Every egg is all there in the they are Every egg is all there in the womb. womb. womb. And then it goes on to your And then it goes on to your And then it goes on to your grandchildren, we thought. At least we grandchildren, we thought. At least we grandchildren, we thought. At least we could prove two generations. And and and could prove two generations. And and and could prove two generations. And and and a recent study suggests it might be many a recent study suggests it might be many a recent study suggests it might be many more generations than two. So, you got more generations than two. So, you got more generations than two. So, you got some of these chemicals some of these chemicals some of these chemicals impregnated in your system, and your impregnated in your system, and your impregnated in your system, and your children pay the price, and your children pay the price, and your children pay the price, and your grandchildren, and perhaps even grandchildren, and perhaps even grandchildren, and perhaps even quite a few generations after that.

quite a few generations after that. quite a few generations after that. >> I also think it would be great if >> I also think it would be great if >> I also think it would be great if Western governments around the world Western governments around the world Western governments around the world made the costs of made the costs of made the costs of both child care and but also fertility both child care and but also fertility both child care and but also fertility treatments treatments treatments significantly lower. significantly lower. significantly lower. >> And they will, of course. >> And they will, of course. >> And they will, of course. >> You know, I had a couple of >> You know, I had a couple of >> You know, I had a couple of conversations on this podcast with very conversations on this podcast with very conversations on this podcast with very successful women, including Ronda successful women, including Ronda successful women, including Ronda Rousey, who was in tears because she was Rousey, who was in tears because she was Rousey, who was in tears because she was on a on a on a I think it's her [laughter] fifth or I think it's her [laughter] fifth or I think it's her [laughter] fifth or sixth round of IVF treatments, and she sixth round of IVF treatments, and she sixth round of IVF treatments, and she just found out just before she walked just found out just before she walked just found out just before she walked into the studio that it hadn't gone into the studio that it hadn't gone into the studio that it hadn't gone well. well. well. And watching her cry And watching her cry And watching her cry about it and get very emotional meant about it and get very emotional meant about it and get very emotional meant that that that day I walked out of this that that that day I walked out of this that that that day I walked out of this room and like called a lot of the people room and like called a lot of the people room and like called a lot of the people in my life that I know are in my life that I know are in my life that I know are you know, in the region where fertility you know, in the region where fertility you know, in the region where fertility starts to decline, and really encourage starts to decline, and really encourage starts to decline, and really encourage them to start thinking if they if that's them to start thinking if they if that's them to start thinking if they if that's what they want in their lives about what they want in their lives about what they want in their lives about family planning, which is like getting family planning, which is like getting family planning, which is like getting your eggs frozen or your embryos frozen. your eggs frozen or your embryos frozen. your eggs frozen or your embryos frozen. And me and my partner actually went and And me and my partner actually went and And me and my partner actually went and did it. We got our embryos frozen, which did it. We got our embryos frozen, which did it. We got our embryos frozen, which was a you know, it's it's not it's it's was a you know, it's it's not it's it's was a you know, it's it's not it's it's both expensive, extremely expensive, both expensive, extremely expensive, both expensive, extremely expensive, especially here in the United States, especially here in the United States, especially here in the United States, and difficult.

and difficult. and difficult. >> And psychologically destructive. Brutal. >> And psychologically destructive. Brutal. >> And psychologically destructive. Brutal. >> You know, we you know, me every day for >> You know, we you know, me every day for >> You know, we you know, me every day for a couple of weeks injecting her with a couple of weeks injecting her with a couple of weeks injecting her with with this this these chemicals and the with this this these chemicals and the with this this these chemicals and the the hormonal roller coaster that she had the hormonal roller coaster that she had the hormonal roller coaster that she had to deal with and all of that, but for us to deal with and all of that, but for us to deal with and all of that, but for us the alternative was worse, the alternative was worse, the alternative was worse, which was never being able to have which was never being able to have which was never being able to have children because it's difficult and children because it's difficult and children because it's difficult and there's all these toxins in our there's all these toxins in our there's all these toxins in our environment and and so on and so forth. environment and and so on and so forth. environment and and so on and so forth. And so I then became a little bit of a I And so I then became a little bit of a I And so I then became a little bit of a I guess a bit of a bit preachy within my guess a bit of a bit preachy within my guess a bit of a bit preachy within my within the people the people in my life within the people the people in my life within the people the people in my life that I love a lot about family planning that I love a lot about family planning that I love a lot about family planning cuz we kind of all thought we could just cuz we kind of all thought we could just cuz we kind of all thought we could just think about it later. think about it later. think about it later. We're all kind of 35 and we thought, We're all kind of 35 and we thought, We're all kind of 35 and we thought, "Yeah, we'll think about that later." "Yeah, we'll think about that later." "Yeah, we'll think about that later." Um but it turns out not to be the case Um but it turns out not to be the case Um but it turns out not to be the case for many people. for many people. for many people. >> If you'll allow me to go back, you asked >> If you'll allow me to go back, you asked >> If you'll allow me to go back, you asked an important question. What do we have an important question. What do we have an important question. What do we have to do? And I said we have to detoxify to do? And I said we have to detoxify to do? And I said we have to detoxify the system and then we both got off into the system and then we both got off into the system and then we both got off into this frenzy of of attacking chemicals, this frenzy of of attacking chemicals, this frenzy of of attacking chemicals, which we should anyway, but it's which we should anyway, but it's which we should anyway, but it's intellectually easy. Ban the suckers, intellectually easy. Ban the suckers, intellectually easy. Ban the suckers, okay? Now, putting pressure on the okay? Now, putting pressure on the okay? Now, putting pressure on the corporations to back off so the corporations to back off so the corporations to back off so the governments can do it would be a good governments can do it would be a good governments can do it would be a good idea, not easy. Corporations have idea, not easy. Corporations have idea, not easy. Corporations have enormous power, unprecedented power in enormous power, unprecedented power in enormous power, unprecedented power in the US, the US, the US, but but very substantial power in the in but but very substantial power in the in but but very substantial power in the in the EU and the UK also. But we have to the EU and the UK also. But we have to the EU and the UK also. But we have to get them to back off. We have to start get them to back off. We have to start get them to back off. We have to start banning these damn things, otherwise no banning these damn things, otherwise no banning these damn things, otherwise no children. But secondly, children. But secondly, children. But secondly, and much more difficult, and much more difficult, and much more difficult, is we have to detoxify capitalism.

is we have to detoxify capitalism. is we have to detoxify capitalism. We have to slowly but surely We have to slowly but surely We have to slowly but surely turn our capitalist societal norms into turn our capitalist societal norms into turn our capitalist societal norms into much more family-friendly, much more family-friendly, much more family-friendly, children-friendly. children-friendly. children-friendly. Over the next several generations, Over the next several generations, Over the next several generations, we have to end up with a society that we have to end up with a society that we have to end up with a society that realizes that 2.1 healthy, well-educated realizes that 2.1 healthy, well-educated realizes that 2.1 healthy, well-educated children is a part of the commons. You children is a part of the commons. You children is a part of the commons. You may not have any children. may not have any children. may not have any children. >> you mean by that, sorry? 2.1? >> you mean by that, sorry? 2.1? >> you mean by that, sorry? 2.1? >> 2.1 is the number of children it takes >> 2.1 is the number of children it takes >> 2.1 is the number of children it takes for a rich society to have a steady for a rich society to have a steady for a rich society to have a steady population. population. population. >> Per couple? >> Per couple? >> Per couple? >> Per couple. If you have less than 2.1 >> Per couple. If you have less than 2.1 >> Per couple. If you have less than 2.1 per couple, per couple, per couple, you fairly rapidly go out of business. you fairly rapidly go out of business. you fairly rapidly go out of business. If you have more than 2.1, you fairly If you have more than 2.1, you fairly If you have more than 2.1, you fairly rapidly end up with so many people rapidly end up with so many people rapidly end up with so many people you're standing on each other's you're standing on each other's you're standing on each other's shoulder. The commons are things like shoulder. The commons are things like shoulder. The commons are things like common land in the old days that anyone common land in the old days that anyone common land in the old days that anyone could put their sheep on. And what could put their sheep on. And what could put their sheep on. And what tended to happen is everyone put more tended to happen is everyone put more tended to happen is everyone put more sheep than they could stand, and they sheep than they could stand, and they sheep than they could stand, and they pretty soon it was pretty soon it was pretty soon it was it had no grass on it. Known as the it had no grass on it. Known as the it had no grass on it. Known as the tragedy of the commons.

tragedy of the commons. tragedy of the commons. And And And we all need we all need we all need clean air, clean air, clean air, clean water, clean water, clean water, fertile soil, fertile soil, fertile soil, and 2.1 healthy, well-educated children. and 2.1 healthy, well-educated children. and 2.1 healthy, well-educated children. Without any of those, society fails. Without any of those, society fails. Without any of those, society fails. All of them have to be treated as group All of them have to be treated as group All of them have to be treated as group responsibility. So, the whole society, responsibility. So, the whole society, responsibility. So, the whole society, the whole village the whole village the whole village has to be in a way like a kibbutz has to be in a way like a kibbutz has to be in a way like a kibbutz eventually. You have to put everything eventually. You have to put everything eventually. You have to put everything behind making it doable behind making it doable behind making it doable to have children because the long list to have children because the long list to have children because the long list of economic and social reasons, as well of economic and social reasons, as well of economic and social reasons, as well as toxin reasons, why people can't have as toxin reasons, why people can't have as toxin reasons, why people can't have 2.1 children is getting so long and so 2.1 children is getting so long and so 2.1 children is getting so long and so dangerous. And nothing yet has worked. I dangerous. And nothing yet has worked. I dangerous. And nothing yet has worked. I mean, they've tried, you tell me, 200 mean, they've tried, you tell me, 200 mean, they've tried, you tell me, 200 different things around the world. different things around the world. different things around the world. Several percentage points of GDP in one Several percentage points of GDP in one Several percentage points of GDP in one or two cases. or two cases. or two cases. And nothing yet has And nothing yet has And nothing yet has seemed seen a permanent uptick in in seemed seen a permanent uptick in in seemed seen a permanent uptick in in baby production.

baby production. baby production. >> For the average person listening right >> For the average person listening right >> For the average person listening right now, Dave who drives a taxi or Jenny who now, Dave who drives a taxi or Jenny who now, Dave who drives a taxi or Jenny who works as a receptionist or um Clive who works as a receptionist or um Clive who works as a receptionist or um Clive who is a nurse, is a nurse, is a nurse, what is the most important thing we what is the most important thing we what is the most important thing we haven't talked about that we should have haven't talked about that we should have haven't talked about that we should have talked about as it pertains to their talked about as it pertains to their talked about as it pertains to their life today? life today? life today? >> I think they have to brace themselves >> I think they have to brace themselves >> I think they have to brace themselves for a tougher times ahead for a tougher times ahead for a tougher times ahead than they would have they expected. than they would have they expected. than they would have they expected. And they're beginning to get the point. And they're beginning to get the point. And they're beginning to get the point. Life for the last 10 or 20 years has Life for the last 10 or 20 years has Life for the last 10 or 20 years has been tougher than than they perhaps been tougher than than they perhaps been tougher than than they perhaps expected as children or or than other expected as children or or than other expected as children or or than other people expected for them. people expected for them. people expected for them. Part of that is politics. Part of that Part of that is politics. Part of that Part of that is politics. Part of that is equality. But the net effect of them is equality. But the net effect of them is equality. But the net effect of them is times are tougher. It is more is times are tougher. It is more is times are tougher. It is more difficult difficult difficult to buy a house or afford to rent. to buy a house or afford to rent. to buy a house or afford to rent. And and jobs are getting scarcer. And and jobs are getting scarcer. And and jobs are getting scarcer. It's likely to get worse. It's likely to get worse. It's likely to get worse. >> What does brace yourself mean for them? >> What does brace yourself mean for them? >> What does brace yourself mean for them? Cuz brace yourself sounds like you Cuz brace yourself sounds like you Cuz brace yourself sounds like you But does it mean But does it mean But does it mean >> Plan your life as if times will not be >> Plan your life as if times will not be >> Plan your life as if times will not be easy.

easy. easy. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> And do not >> And do not >> And do not build up a little reserve of of cash. build up a little reserve of of cash. build up a little reserve of of cash. Of course my advice to Of course my advice to Of course my advice to other people is and and get yourself a other people is and and get yourself a other people is and and get yourself a useful job. Something that will in a useful job. Something that will in a useful job. Something that will in a larger sense pull your weight in larger sense pull your weight in larger sense pull your weight in society. society. society. >> Upskill, change skills, learn something >> Upskill, change skills, learn something >> Upskill, change skills, learn something >> mechanical >> mechanical >> mechanical fixing, repairing fixing, repairing fixing, repairing >> Things that >> Things that >> Things that >> engineering >> engineering >> engineering >> Things that will need humans. >> Things that will need humans. >> Things that will need humans. >> And and research, science in general. >> And and research, science in general. >> And and research, science in general. >> Make friends. >> Make friends. >> Make friends. >> Make friends. >> Make friends. >> Make friends. Make sure you're living in in a a tight Make sure you're living in in a a tight Make sure you're living in in a a tight society if you can. Very difficult society if you can. Very difficult society if you can. Very difficult today, obviously. today, obviously. today, obviously. >> Would you be thinking about the country >> Would you be thinking about the country >> Would you be thinking about the country you live in at this moment in time? you live in at this moment in time? you live in at this moment in time? >> Absolutely. >> Absolutely. >> Absolutely. >> Really? Is there any countries you >> Really? Is there any countries you >> Really? Is there any countries you wouldn't live in? wouldn't live in? wouldn't live in? >> [sighs and gasps] >> [sighs and gasps] >> [sighs and gasps] >> If you were Dave or Jenny? >> If you were Dave or Jenny? >> If you were Dave or Jenny? >> I I think I have to refuse to answer >> I I think I have to refuse to answer >> I I think I have to refuse to answer this on the grounds that it might tend this on the grounds that it might tend this on the grounds that it might tend to incriminate me. to incriminate me. to incriminate me. Um Um Um >> Oh, okay. So you're saying don't live in >> Oh, okay. So you're saying don't live in >> Oh, okay. So you're saying don't live in the United States? the United States? the United States? >> Well, I have >> Well, I have >> Well, I have American children and grandchildren. American children and grandchildren. American children and grandchildren. >> Why not the United States? >> Why not the United States? >> Why not the United States? >> It holds out too much chance that the >> It holds out too much chance that the >> It holds out too much chance that the social contract is social contract is social contract is is is >> [snorts] >> dissolving.

>> dissolving. >> dissolving. You know, the thing about Japan and that You know, the thing about Japan and that You know, the thing about Japan and that my joking rule 21 in investing is never my joking rule 21 in investing is never my joking rule 21 in investing is never extrapolate from the Japanese. They are extrapolate from the Japanese. They are extrapolate from the Japanese. They are extremely different in every way. extremely different in every way. extremely different in every way. But one of the ways they're different is But one of the ways they're different is But one of the ways they're different is they have this amazing social contract. they have this amazing social contract. they have this amazing social contract. The thing that really upsets the The thing that really upsets the The thing that really upsets the Japanese is if they're put in a position Japanese is if they're put in a position Japanese is if they're put in a position where they can't act in a socially where they can't act in a socially where they can't act in a socially responsible way. responsible way. responsible way. >> When you say social contract, what does >> When you say social contract, what does >> When you say social contract, what does that mean? that mean? that mean? >> It means an agreement that I will behave >> It means an agreement that I will behave >> It means an agreement that I will behave in a way that helps my neighbors and the in a way that helps my neighbors and the in a way that helps my neighbors and the society that I'm doing what people society that I'm doing what people society that I'm doing what people expect me to do. I'm not going to expect me to do. I'm not going to expect me to do. I'm not going to misbehave. misbehave. misbehave. >> And you think that's not the case here >> And you think that's not the case here >> And you think that's not the case here in the United States? in the United States? in the United States? >> I think the case here is that people are >> I think the case here is that people are >> I think the case here is that people are doing what they think is best for them doing what they think is best for them doing what they think is best for them and their family and screw everybody and their family and screw everybody and their family and screw everybody else, really. else, really. else, really. When I arrived in America, corporations When I arrived in America, corporations When I arrived in America, corporations had this sense that they owed something had this sense that they owed something had this sense that they owed something to the community they operated in, the to the community they operated in, the to the community they operated in, the city they operated in. They They'd build city they operated in. They They'd build city they operated in. They They'd build the stadium, they'd do this, they'd the stadium, they'd do this, they'd the stadium, they'd do this, they'd they'd be part of the community. they'd be part of the community. they'd be part of the community. Now they're not. They're all Now they're not. They're all Now they're not. They're all in a way cold-blooded, profit-maximizing in a way cold-blooded, profit-maximizing in a way cold-blooded, profit-maximizing international enterprises.

international enterprises. international enterprises. >> And why is that a bad place to live? Cuz >> And why is that a bad place to live? Cuz >> And why is that a bad place to live? Cuz you're saying, you know, you probably you're saying, you know, you probably you're saying, you know, you probably wouldn't recommend Dave or Jenny living wouldn't recommend Dave or Jenny living wouldn't recommend Dave or Jenny living in the United States. Why would that be in the United States. Why would that be in the United States. Why would that be a bad place for them to be? What a bad place for them to be? What a bad place for them to be? What happens? What's the What's the happens? What's the What's the happens? What's the What's the downstream impact of that? downstream impact of that? downstream impact of that? >> That your neighbors aren't as interested >> That your neighbors aren't as interested >> That your neighbors aren't as interested in you and your well-being. in you and your well-being. in you and your well-being. >> Fine. I don't I won't talk to my >> Fine. I don't I won't talk to my >> Fine. I don't I won't talk to my neighbor. neighbor. neighbor. >> And that's a lonely place to be. And >> And that's a lonely place to be. And >> And that's a lonely place to be. And when you're in trouble, when you're in trouble, when you're in trouble, you're in you're in you're in serious trouble. serious trouble. serious trouble. Uh because the safety net here is very Uh because the safety net here is very Uh because the safety net here is very ineffective. There's a a measure that I ineffective. There's a a measure that I ineffective. There's a a measure that I think is probably the single most think is probably the single most think is probably the single most important measure of civilization, and important measure of civilization, and important measure of civilization, and that is maternal mortality. How many that is maternal mortality. How many that is maternal mortality. How many people die in childbirth? You know, in people die in childbirth? You know, in people die in childbirth? You know, in Nigeria out of 100,000, it's 480, give Nigeria out of 100,000, it's 480, give Nigeria out of 100,000, it's 480, give or take. or take. or take. And uh And uh And uh in America, in in the in America, in in the in America, in in the black population, black population, black population, it's uh 44. it's uh 44. it's uh 44. In the whole population, it's like 21 or In the whole population, it's like 21 or In the whole population, it's like 21 or 20. 20. 20. Curiously, in the Curiously, in the Curiously, in the American Asian population, it's 13.

American Asian population, it's 13. American Asian population, it's 13. And then, you go down the list, And then, you go down the list, And then, you go down the list, and in Britain, it's five. and in Britain, it's five. and in Britain, it's five. In Germany, it's four. In Germany, it's four. In Germany, it's four. In Sweden, it's 2.1. In Norway, it's In Sweden, it's 2.1. In Norway, it's In Sweden, it's 2.1. In Norway, it's zero. There were no mothers who died zero. There were no mothers who died zero. There were no mothers who died last year. last year. last year. >> Hm. >> Hm. >> Hm. >> Or the year before. What better >> Or the year before. What better >> Or the year before. What better definition of civilization than looking definition of civilization than looking definition of civilization than looking after the mothers giving birth? How is after the mothers giving birth? How is after the mothers giving birth? How is it possible that a country it possible that a country it possible that a country more or less the richest in the world, more or less the richest in the world, more or less the richest in the world, it's not just that they're the worst in it's not just that they're the worst in it's not just that they're the worst in the rich world, it's that the rich world, it's that the rich world, it's that they are 50% worse than the next worst. they are 50% worse than the next worst. they are 50% worse than the next worst. 50% more mothers die here than in the 50% more mothers die here than in the 50% more mothers die here than in the second worst country in the developed second worst country in the developed second worst country in the developed world. How is that possible? The answer world. How is that possible? The answer world. How is that possible? The answer is it happens. is it happens. is it happens. And um it's because And um it's because And um it's because the inequality is so extreme in the the inequality is so extreme in the the inequality is so extreme in the medical system medical system medical system that if you don't have lots of money, that if you don't have lots of money, that if you don't have lots of money, you're quite likely to die in you're quite likely to die in you're quite likely to die in childbirth. I mean, childbirth. I mean, childbirth. I mean, Now, of course, the numbers are not Now, of course, the numbers are not Now, of course, the numbers are not huge. 20 out of 100,000 is not uh huge. 20 out of 100,000 is not uh huge. 20 out of 100,000 is not uh but it's but it's a terrible contrast.

but it's but it's a terrible contrast. but it's but it's a terrible contrast. >> It's a sign of something. >> It's a sign of something. >> It's a sign of something. It's a sign of something else as well. It's a sign of something else as well. It's a sign of something else as well. >> It's a sign of whether people are >> It's a sign of whether people are >> It's a sign of whether people are It's a sign of the social contract. It's a sign of the social contract. It's a sign of the social contract. >> So, where's a good place to live then, >> So, where's a good place to live then, >> So, where's a good place to live then, if not here? if not here? if not here? >> Denmark, Japan. >> Denmark, Japan. >> Denmark, Japan. Uh even France, Germany. The UK has a Uh even France, Germany. The UK has a Uh even France, Germany. The UK has a little bit of the American disease, but little bit of the American disease, but little bit of the American disease, but not nearly as much. not nearly as much. not nearly as much. >> So, if your kids came to you and said, >> So, if your kids came to you and said, >> So, if your kids came to you and said, "Dad, we're thinking of uh leaving the "Dad, we're thinking of uh leaving the "Dad, we're thinking of uh leaving the United States. Should I move? United States. Should I move? United States. Should I move? Should I Should I move out of the United Should I Should I move out of the United Should I Should I move out of the United States? States? States? >> Yeah, I I would say that's a perfectly >> Yeah, I I would say that's a perfectly >> Yeah, I I would say that's a perfectly reasonable thing to consider. reasonable thing to consider. reasonable thing to consider. And where are you going and why and And where are you going and why and And where are you going and why and what's your what's your what's your >> I'm thinking of going to Denmark, Dad. >> I'm thinking of going to Denmark, Dad. >> I'm thinking of going to Denmark, Dad. >> Well, >> Well, >> Well, if they'll have you. Uh if they'll have you. Uh if they'll have you. Uh No, uh No, uh No, uh in the things that really matter, life in the things that really matter, life in the things that really matter, life expectancy, health, expectancy, health, expectancy, health, safety nets, safety nets, safety nets, uh murder rates, uh murder rates, uh murder rates, uh mortality rates, uh mortality rates, uh mortality rates, and everything that really matters, yes, and everything that really matters, yes, and everything that really matters, yes, they're they're day and night better. they're they're day and night better. they're they're day and night better. In the things that don't really matter, In the things that don't really matter, In the things that don't really matter, but look really splashy, but look really splashy, but look really splashy, we have enormous quantities of uh wealth we have enormous quantities of uh wealth we have enormous quantities of uh wealth created created created that go to a relatively small fraction that go to a relatively small fraction that go to a relatively small fraction of the people.

of the people. of the people. And that dazzles in terms of the average And that dazzles in terms of the average And that dazzles in terms of the average because because because um that's how the numbers work. um that's how the numbers work. um that's how the numbers work. If you look at how well-off the bottom If you look at how well-off the bottom If you look at how well-off the bottom quartile are, quartile are, quartile are, America doesn't score well at all. >> Jeremy, we have a closing tradition >> Jeremy, we have a closing tradition where the last guest leaves a question where the last guest leaves a question where the last guest leaves a question for the next guest not knowing who for the next guest not knowing who for the next guest not knowing who they're leaving it for. The question they're leaving it for. The question they're leaving it for. The question left for you is, if you could not fail, left for you is, if you could not fail, left for you is, if you could not fail, what would your next goal be what would your next goal be what would your next goal be that you would set for yourself? that you would set for yourself? that you would set for yourself? >> There There was a book written >> There There was a book written >> There There was a book written in the 1960s called Silent Spring. in the 1960s called Silent Spring. in the 1960s called Silent Spring. Carl Carson, I think her name was. Carl Carson, I think her name was. Carl Carson, I think her name was. And it changed for a quite a number of And it changed for a quite a number of And it changed for a quite a number of years it it it did what books never do years it it it did what books never do years it it it did what books never do really it really it really it it uh became a political monster and it uh became a political monster and it uh became a political monster and everyone studied it and it had an everyone studied it and it had an everyone studied it and it had an effect. It changed the game. effect. It changed the game. effect. It changed the game. I would uh like to write something about I would uh like to write something about I would uh like to write something about toxicity and and social contract really. toxicity and and social contract really. toxicity and and social contract really. Particularly nurturing a family. We Particularly nurturing a family. We Particularly nurturing a family. We We've got to find in the end a community We've got to find in the end a community We've got to find in the end a community that encourages children. The downside that encourages children. The downside that encourages children. The downside of the of the of the brutally efficient capitalist system brutally efficient capitalist system brutally efficient capitalist system that we have. It's focus on that we have. It's focus on that we have. It's focus on financial achievement and so on.

financial achievement and so on. financial achievement and so on. And And And very little emphasis on community and very little emphasis on community and very little emphasis on community and child-rearing and so on. If we don't we child-rearing and so on. If we don't we child-rearing and so on. If we don't we we fail as a society pretty quickly. We we fail as a society pretty quickly. We we fail as a society pretty quickly. We have to detoxify. We have to encourage have to detoxify. We have to encourage have to detoxify. We have to encourage to create an environment where people to create an environment where people to create an environment where people want to have children. want to have children. want to have children. >> [clears throat] >> [clears throat] >> [clears throat] >> If I could write a book >> If I could write a book >> If I could write a book that would be that would be that would be would would pull a silent spring, I would would pull a silent spring, I would would pull a silent spring, I would sit down tomorrow and start it. would sit down tomorrow and start it. would sit down tomorrow and start it. >> The making of a Parma bear. >> The making of a Parma bear. >> The making of a Parma bear. >> Parma should be in inverted commas, >> Parma should be in inverted commas, >> Parma should be in inverted commas, really. really. really. >> The perils of long-term investing in a >> The perils of long-term investing in a >> The perils of long-term investing in a short-term world. short-term world. short-term world. By Jeremy Grantham and Edward By Jeremy Grantham and Edward By Jeremy Grantham and Edward Chancellor. Chancellor. Chancellor. Who is this book for? Who is this book for? Who is this book for? >> Oh, people who have a interest in the >> Oh, people who have a interest in the >> Oh, people who have a interest in the stock market. It has a little bit of stock market. It has a little bit of stock market. It has a little bit of climate change and toxicity. climate change and toxicity. climate change and toxicity. My my co-rider is a professional and he My my co-rider is a professional and he My my co-rider is a professional and he tried to limit me quite sensibly. tried to limit me quite sensibly. tried to limit me quite sensibly. Feeling that our main market was Feeling that our main market was Feeling that our main market was investors who would be turned off by too investors who would be turned off by too investors who would be turned off by too much of the stuff we've been talking much of the stuff we've been talking much of the stuff we've been talking about.

about. about. >> You cover things also like economics, >> You cover things also like economics, >> You cover things also like economics, value investing, being a bear, and value investing, being a bear, and value investing, being a bear, and predicting a bubble, and what to do predicting a bubble, and what to do predicting a bubble, and what to do about all of those things. But it's about all of those things. But it's about all of those things. But it's really a useful counterintuitive not really a useful counterintuitive not really a useful counterintuitive not counterintuitive, but it's a it's a counterintuitive, but it's a it's a counterintuitive, but it's a it's a frame of thinking that will help you be frame of thinking that will help you be frame of thinking that will help you be more realistic especially when more realistic especially when more realistic especially when psychology is prone to take over and psychology is prone to take over and psychology is prone to take over and make you wildly recklessly optimistic. make you wildly recklessly optimistic. make you wildly recklessly optimistic. >> And and be more confident in your >> And and be more confident in your >> And and be more confident in your judgment. judgment. judgment. Big big companies cannot advise you. Big big companies cannot advise you. Big big companies cannot advise you. It's just suicidal for their business. It's just suicidal for their business. It's just suicidal for their business. So you are on your own. Look at the So you are on your own. Look at the So you are on your own. Look at the data. A bubble is not hard to see. There data. A bubble is not hard to see. There data. A bubble is not hard to see. There is this kind of plane and then there's a is this kind of plane and then there's a is this kind of plane and then there's a Himalayan peak Himalayan peak Himalayan peak which eventually goes back. which eventually goes back. which eventually goes back. >> And I mean that's exactly what we're >> And I mean that's exactly what we're >> And I mean that's exactly what we're seeing. seeing. seeing. >> That's exactly what history looks like. >> That's exactly what history looks like. >> That's exactly what history looks like. Have the courage to look at that, make Have the courage to look at that, make Have the courage to look at that, make your own conclusion, get out of the your own conclusion, get out of the your own conclusion, get out of the dangerous most dangerous part, dangerous most dangerous part, dangerous most dangerous part, and and do it now. and and do it now. and and do it now. Don't wait for help because no help is Don't wait for help because no help is Don't wait for help because no help is coming. Large enterprises almost never get the Large enterprises almost never get the big turning points big turning points big turning points because they can't take the career risk because they can't take the career risk because they can't take the career risk involved.

involved. involved. And every big corporation needs a leader And every big corporation needs a leader And every big corporation needs a leader who has political skills. who has political skills. who has political skills. And the And the central political skill And the And the central political skill And the And the central political skill in life turns out to be never be wrong in life turns out to be never be wrong in life turns out to be never be wrong on your own. on your own. on your own. This is again Keynes. This is again Keynes. This is again Keynes. You know, you can be wrong in company, You know, you can be wrong in company, You know, you can be wrong in company, you can jump off the cliff together, you you can jump off the cliff together, you you can jump off the cliff together, you will never lose your job because of will never lose your job because of will never lose your job because of that. that. that. But if you do anything on your own, But if you do anything on your own, But if you do anything on your own, sooner or later you will get it wrong. sooner or later you will get it wrong. sooner or later you will get it wrong. And quote, you will not receive much And quote, you will not receive much And quote, you will not receive much mercy. mercy. mercy. >> Jeremy, thank you so much. Thank you for >> Jeremy, thank you so much. Thank you for >> Jeremy, thank you so much. Thank you for all that you do. Um you traverse so many all that you do. Um you traverse so many all that you do. Um you traverse so many subjects. It's It's absolutely subjects. It's It's absolutely subjects. It's It's absolutely fascinating and you You've made me think fascinating and you You've made me think fascinating and you You've made me think about so many things. I've actually about so many things. I've actually about so many things. I've actually written down a bunch of ideas. You sent written down a bunch of ideas. You sent written down a bunch of ideas. You sent me taking some photos then. Those are me taking some photos then. Those are me taking some photos then. Those are actually ideas that I want to remember. actually ideas that I want to remember. actually ideas that I want to remember. >> Yeah, that's what I do. Screenshot city. >> Yeah, that's what I do. Screenshot city. >> Yeah, that's what I do. Screenshot city. >> Yeah, so I took I just wrote things down >> Yeah, so I took I just wrote things down >> Yeah, so I took I just wrote things down you were saying and then I was like I you were saying and then I was like I you were saying and then I was like I need to remember that later for a bunch need to remember that later for a bunch need to remember that later for a bunch of things, businesses, friends, family, of things, businesses, friends, family, of things, businesses, friends, family, etc. etc. etc. Um and I think that's the testament to Um and I think that's the testament to Um and I think that's the testament to how broad and curious and wise you are. how broad and curious and wise you are. how broad and curious and wise you are. >> Going back to question one or two, the >> Going back to question one or two, the >> Going back to question one or two, the billionaire bit, billionaire bit, billionaire bit, uh sometime around the end of this year uh sometime around the end of this year uh sometime around the end of this year we will actually have written checks for we will actually have written checks for we will actually have written checks for a billion dollars a billion dollars a billion dollars to the climate change world.

to the climate change world. to the climate change world. >> It's It's a wonderful thing and there's >> It's It's a wonderful thing and there's >> It's It's a wonderful thing and there's you know this particular moment in time you know this particular moment in time you know this particular moment in time because of the politics, climate change because of the politics, climate change because of the politics, climate change is a subject that's falling off the is a subject that's falling off the is a subject that's falling off the radar. radar. radar. >> It is. >> It is. >> It is. >> Uh it's >> Uh it's >> Uh it's being mentioned less in earnings calls. being mentioned less in earnings calls. being mentioned less in earnings calls. It's It's It's >> But this year will be so disgustingly >> But this year will be so disgustingly >> But this year will be so disgustingly hot from now on, I suspect. hot from now on, I suspect. hot from now on, I suspect. >> Disgustingly hot. >> Disgustingly hot. >> Disgustingly hot. >> Hot. We could have from now on the >> Hot. We could have from now on the >> Hot. We could have from now on the hottest 12 months from now to this time hottest 12 months from now to this time hottest 12 months from now to this time next year that we have ever had in next year that we have ever had in next year that we have ever had in history. history. history. Here, there, and everywhere. Here, there, and everywhere. Here, there, and everywhere. >> Well, I'm glad we've got voices like >> Well, I'm glad we've got voices like >> Well, I'm glad we've got voices like yours yours yours um lending their ideas and wisdom to um lending their ideas and wisdom to um lending their ideas and wisdom to these conversations and it's been an these conversations and it's been an these conversations and it's been an honor and a privilege to to you. Your honor and a privilege to to you. Your honor and a privilege to to you. Your book, The Making of a Manager, Baron, to book, The Making of a Manager, Baron, to book, The Making of a Manager, Baron, to link it below link it below link it below for everyone to buy it themselves. for everyone to buy it themselves. for everyone to buy it themselves. Jeremy, thank you. YouTube have this new Jeremy, thank you. YouTube have this new Jeremy, thank you. YouTube have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly crazy algorithm where they know exactly crazy algorithm where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next what video you would like to watch next what video you would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing based on AI and all of your viewing based on AI and all of your viewing behavior. And the algorithm says that behavior. And the algorithm says that behavior. And the algorithm says that this video is the perfect video for you. this video is the perfect video for you. this video is the perfect video for you. It's different for everybody looking It's different for everybody looking It's different for everybody looking right now. Check this video out, and I right now. Check this video out, and I right now. Check this video out, and I bet you you might love it.