It's always a kind of sketchy proposition  to cite casualty figures in the middle of a   war. Because if there's one thing combatants,  governments lie about, it's how many people   have died. You can almost never get a straight  answer. Everybody lies about it. They're lying   about it now. Four and a half years in. We really  have no idea how many Russians or Ukrainians or   people from other countries have died in the  Russia Ukraine war. And we definitely don't   know with precision how many people have died  in the war with Iran. But we thought it'd be   interesting is to pull up the official numbers to  the extent they exist. We don't know, by the way,   with total certainty how many Americans have died.  The official numbers maybe 16. Is that true? We   we hope it's no more. Every death is a tragedy,  but we just don't know. But there are official   numbers. And so again, just as an exercise,  as something that might reveal a deeper truth,   we pulled up the numbers a minute ago. So here  are the numbers on the Iranian side. The official   number is about 3,600 3,664 about that Iranians  dead combatants and civilians majority civilians   as is true in every war. Uh 3,600 but that's  not the biggest total of dead in a country in   the last 3 months since this war broke out in  the Middle East launched by the United States   and Israel. The biggest number of dead is not in  Iran. It's not in a Gulf state. It's in Lebanon.   Lebanon. Yeah. Over 4,000 Lebanese, almost all of  them civilians, killed by Israel since Israel and  

the United States launched the war against Iran.  Think about that for a second. Now, again, we have   no confidence in the precision of these numbers,  but in the the relative scale of the numbers,   in other words, more killed in Lebanon than killed  in Iran, sounds right. It was even close to right.   It tells you something amazing and it tells you  which if you've been paying attention something   you already knew which was that Israel cajjol  convinced threatened however they did it got the   US government to fight this war a regime change  war in Iran on its behalf with it as a partner   Israel and the United States partnered in this war  different goals but somehow a partnership and then   immediately use that war as a pretext to launch  another war against a neighbor Lebanon on the   only country in the Middle East with a Christian  head of state, Christian head of the military,   the only even semi-Christian country in the whole  region and kill a bunch of Christians and other   people more than the US and Israel together killed  in. Think about that for a second. Think about   what that says about Israel's attitude. Not toward  Lebanon or Hezbollah or Hezbollah or whatever   we're calling it, the Iranianbacked Shiite  militia that they're supposedly at war with.   Think about what that says about Israel's attitude  toward us here in the United States, its sponsor,   the people paying for all of this. This would  be like you get a call from a friend, your   closest friend, your only real friend, who says,  "I've got a home invasion in progress. MS-13's  

beating down my doors. They're going to kill my  family. Come help." It's existential. And so,   you get in your car, you drive over there armed.  And he's right. You're you begin a pitched battle   with the MS-13 home invaders. But while you're  fighting his home invaders, he splits out the   back door and shoots his next door neighbor in the  head and steals his house. You would say to him,   probably if you had any self-respect, "Oh, what  are you doing? You told me that I had to fight   this battle on your behalf because we're  such close friends and that your existence,   your future depended on winning this battle."  attle and the second I joined the battle   that you convinced me to join, you split and  started another battle to increase the size of   your property. That's not a good friend. That's a  friend who's taking advantage of your generosity,   of your loyalty, of your help. That is in fact  someone who's betrayed you. And that is roughly   speaking or maybe a little more than roughly that  is pretty much exactly what Israel just did to   the United States. So Israeli leaders somehow  convince, control, threaten whatever they did.   They overrode the advice of the American  president's adviserss and intelligence   chiefs and convinced him that Iran was on the  verge of building a nuclear weapon despite the   fact that that same president had told everybody a  little more than 6 months before that that threat  

had been neutralized during the 12-day war in  back in June that they were somehow building   a nuclear weapon again despite having no nuclear  facilities because we blew them up. whatever you   remember the story and we needed to neutralize  that threat. The Iranian nuclear program was the   justification for this regime change effort for  killing the Ayatollah, bombing the girls school,   everything that's happened in the last 3 months.  And we had to do this not simply for Israel's   sake because you would never go to war on behalf  of a foreign country. That would be effectively   treason. But for our own sake and for the sake  of the world, you can't allow Iran to have a   nuke. And they they're almost ready. They almost  have a nuclear weapon. And the delivery device,   the intercontinental ballistic missile, the ICBM  capable of blowing up Miami. And if we allow them,   they will do just that cuz they're so crazy  killing is their reason for living. They hate us   for our freedoms. It doesn't make any sense to the  rational western mind, but to the Shiites in Iran,   yeah, they get up in the morning determined  to kill the West because we're the West and   on that ground just on the basis of that, they've  devoted their entire lives to building weapons of   mass destruction just so they can kill us. And  so, we have to kill them first. That's literally   the case, not simply that Donald Trump made,  but that American presidents have been making  

for like 40 years. They're just crazy. You  don't have to consider their perspective,   their point of view, their motives. They  don't have a perspective, a point of view,   or motives. What they have is bloodthirst.  They kill for its own sake. That's their   religion. Okay? That's what the Mullas are about.  Killing Westerners. They hate us for our freedoms.   So they sold that explanation and then immediately  revealed they didn't believe it themselves because   they took our resources and their military which  we pay for to go fight a separate war and in the   course of that war took like half the country  and occupied it. And it just so happens that that   country abuts it's contiguous to Israel. It abuts  northern Israel, the Galilee. And it's definitely   true that Hezbollah has shelled the Galilee or  sent drones over the Galilee and killed people   in the Galilee. Not thousands, not even close.  But they're very hostile to Israel. They want to   kill Israelis. There's no doubt about that.  There's no reason to lie about that. That's   true. Hezbollah is hostile to Israel. But it's  also true that Israel would like to steal the   land of a sovereign nation called Lebanon, which  is not run by Hezbollah. in in effect occupied   by Hezbollah and has been for a long time. That's  that's a big problem for Lebanon. No reason to lie   about that either. It hasn't made Lebanon better.  It's a beautiful country with amazing people,  

but it's become a well literally a battleground  in a larger contest for regional control between   Iran and Israel. So that is a fact. And if you're  trying as an American president or vice president   or chairman of the joint chiefs or you know  anybody in an official capacity in the United   States who's trying to wrap up this war in a way  that you can plausibly claim victory at the end or   at least with less humiliation. That's extremely  annoying. Why wouldn't it be? You just told your   people you were doing it for one reason and your  partner admitted by his actions if not words that   he's got a completely separate agenda which is not  good for you results in the intentional deaths of   Christians the bombing of churches the emptying  of Christian villages ancient Christian villages   etc etc so the whole thing's repugnant and  it's also as the Israeli style of war tends to   be wildly disproportionate so they kill people in  the galley in northern Israel You kill a thousand   of them. And not only do you kill a thousand per  one, but then you brag about it and you say, as   a cabinet minister in the Israeli government did  just the other day, hours ago, "Yeah, those are   the rules. Kill one of ours, we kill a thousand  of yours." That's not how civilized people conduct   warfare because it's so asymmetrical that it's not  justifiable morally. It is by definition punishing  

the innocent. And it's also something that only  truly discredited, widely recognized evil regimes   have ever done in public, have ever said that.  There was a certain European country 80 years ago   that did that to partisans say in Eastern Europe.  You kill one of our soldiers, we'll round up a   hundred. It was 100 to one, by the way, or 50 to1.  But here you have our partner, our client state   saying it's a thousand to one. It's all bad. It's  bad in absolute terms. There's no justifying it   as a question of behavior. It's also bad for the  United States. Why would we want to be tethered to   lunacy like that? Why would we want to be paying  for lunacy like that? Brutality like that? Totally   unjustifiable. And of course, undergirling all  of it is the belief that all human life is not   equal. Some lives are worth more than others.  It's not just a matter of nationality. It's a   matter of race. Our our people, our bloodline  is more valuable than yours. Now, by the way,   Israel is not the only country that's reached  that conclusion. Lots of countries have entered   a state of insanity and concluded that. Famously,  the Germans, but many others. It's like this is a   human problem that people tend to have. I'm  fully human. you're not like they're not the   first country to reach that conclusion. But that  conclusion itself is the enemy of civilization.   That's exactly what we reject. That's why  we're civilized and people who believe that   are by definition univilized. So any all of this  happens. Meanwhile, the United States realizes its   president, its leadership that there's no military  solution to this. We can't kill our way out of the  

war with Iran. can't despite the awesome and much  advertised power of our military we can't actually   force Iran to open the straight of hormones or we  would have already and by the way no one on either   side of this debate has ever proposed exactly how  you would do that not noted military geniuses like   Mark the nobody had because there's no there's  no solution but there is an inevitable outcome if   you keep going and that's poverty that's economic  collapse and the president said that out loud last   If we keep going, we run out of oil. I don't know  if we actually run out of oil. I don't know if   that's true. Probably not. We do have massive  energy reserves in the United States. But this   stuff is priced on the international markets. And  at some point, sooner rather than later, energy,   gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, jet fuel, the  things that make the society work will become too   expensive for most people to buy. At which point  things fall apart. you get hyperinflation and and   then all the downstream effects of that like chaos  and violence. So, we can't we're boxed in, made   a bad decision, got to get out. Yes, getting out  looks a lot like defeat because strictly speaking,   it is defeat. Meaning, we're pulling back.  We've reached none of the goals that we publicly   articulated we are trying to reach. And that's  all very embarrassing. We have reached the limit   of American power. Yes, that's true. It's sad. We  can certainly readjust. Doesn't mean our country's   gone. doesn't mean we're in a great depression.  It doesn't mean we have a civil war. Like,   there are lots of things we're avoiding here and  that's good, but it's definitely a step down and  

it's kind of impossible to save face entirely, but  you know, it's the best of a series of really bad   options. So the president who got us into this  mess in the first place and shame on him did   make a rational and in some ways though depressing  probably the only right decision a noble decision   actually to just take his lumps and get out  because if we don't do that what exactly are   we going to do? And again no one's answered that  question because there's no answer other than just   continue to fruitlessly suffer at an accelerating  pace until everything like truly falls apart.   So you have to get out. So we're going to get  out. So he announces we're getting out. Well,   from the Israeli perspective, there's no worse  outcome. And just to show a little grace to   Israel, this is one of those rare moments where  the hyperbole actually does match the reality.   So Israel's been complaining about, whining about  inflating the severity of existential threats for,   you know, generations. It's an existential  threat. No, it's not. But this gets about   as close to an existential threat to Israel  as anything in the past 50 years for sure. So   they go into this with the aim of disabling Iran,  breaking the country apart into waring factions,   taking kind of taking it off the table as a global  player and that was their goal. They said it and   the opposite happened. Ron became stronger. Ron  became globally recognized as a true player in   international energy and commodity markets, but  also as the country that stood up to the two most  

ferocious, maybe least scrupulous militaries in  the world. This is the global view, true or not,   and didn't crumble. They killed the head of  state and entire top echelon running the state   and new people nobody had ever heard of seamlessly  moved into those roles and just kept kept going.   So like the message to the rest of the world is  this little outlaw terror state stood up to the   most powerful coalition in the world and survived.  That in itself is a massive win and it increases   Iran's prestige and its operational power going  forward. There's kind of no way around that.   Not many people would have predicted that. Not  many people would have wanted that. But we're   not in charge of history. And that's exactly what  happened. From the perspective of the rest of us,   that's sad. It's a massive downgrade in American  power and there will be consequences for sure,   particularly in East Asia. But you're just going  to have to live with those and deal with them. And   it may be in some ways good for the United States  to recognize the limits of military power because   there are limits to military power. Period. Even  if you use nuclear weapons, there are limits. And   those limits include your own assured death. So  like, let's stop talking ourselves into lunacy   here. I mean, military is great. Everyone supports  the military. Certainly, it's well funded. A lot   of that funding is wasted. There's a lot of theft.  Building aircraft carriers is obviously insane as   any person could have told you. There's a there's  a obviously a lot to learn from the waste in $1.5   trillion in Pentagon funding, but the military is  still impressive and has lots of great people and  

etc., etc., etc. But no matter how great your  military is, there are things you can't achieve   with it. That's just a fact. It's always  been a fact. Wise people understand that.   There's no leader in the world with any wisdom  or foresight who doesn't understand that. And   now perhaps our leaders will understand it. And  that's not bad. But from Israel's perspective,   it's very hard to see an upside in this because  Iran, which it's fair to say, no matter how much   you dislike Israel, you'd have to admit Iran has a  real grudge against Israel. Iran has been funding,   and it's a little more complicated than this,  but they have effectively been funding some of   Israel's most dangerous enemies. just that's  just true. And now they're more powerful than   ever. And the Gulf, the six Gulf states, which  are inherently powerful because they have all   this energy wealth, they're not more closely  allied with you or the United States. They will,   some of them inevitably will in real terms,  if not openly, become closer to Iran because   they have no choice because Iran is now  a partner with Oman and controlling the   ability of their commodities to get out of the  Persian Gulf. So it it this is all obvious,   but think about it from the Israeli perspective.  This is like a true nightmare scenario, but it's   also a familiar scenario to anyone over 11 years  old. And that's the scenario in which all of your   dreams whip around and become the opposite of what  you thought they were going to be. You have no   ability as a human being to precisely predict the  future. Sometimes you can be kind of right. Often   you're 180 degrees wrong. The opposite of what you  thought was going to happen happened. And again,  

anyone who's not a child has lived this. And wise  people write it down on a note and post it on the   fridge just to remind themselves every single  day, I am not God. It is entirely possible that   I'll go into some complex highstakes project and  at the end the opposite will happen. So I should   slow down a little bit and be ever aware of the  limitations of my own predictive abilities. Like   that's how wise people approach life. People  like Benjamin Netanyahu by contrast and a lot   of politicians by the way get up on stage and  tell you if we do this this is exactly what's   going to happen. And people like that should never  hold power because they're dumb. And they're dumb   in a recognizable way. don't recognize their own  limits. They don't know what they're not capable   of doing. And the only way they ever learn that is  by leading others into disaster and death. That's   like the oldest lesson in human history. And we're  all learning it once again. So those I think are   the relative perspectives. The United States  realized we got to get out. It's it's obviously   embarrassing. It's bad, but it could be way worse.  So we should be grateful they're getting out now.   Israel realizes, "Holy smokes, we miscalculated  or we were betrayed because there's really no   self-awareness at all at any level of the Israeli  government. It's always someone else's fault. It's   always your fault. You just hate us because you've  always hated us." Okay. Now, but in any case, what   whatever the cause of it, the Israelis understand,  wow, oh wow, we're up against it. We thought we  

were going to like be in charge of the region. We'  be the regional hegeimons, and now we realize our   main enemy is more powerful than they ever were.  Woo. And by the way, our only ally on the planet   is telling us that we have to stop the war that  we started under the cover of the war we convinced   them to start. Okay, so it's tough and you can see  the total misalignment between the United States   and Israel, these purported partners in this  doomed venture. But they're not really partners.   One country is many times the size of the other  country. Both in population and territory and   in resources are not even closely comparable.  This is the elephant and the flea. And moreover,   the little country is wholly totally dependent on  the big country for everything for for everything   for its economy for its intelligence and more  than anything for maintaining its territorial   ambitions and providing for its defense. But the  little country refuses to recognize that both out   of arrogance and because it's in a state of total  hysteria and can't think straight. And so that's   the rub right there. The little country somehow  has control over the future of the big country,   but the big country is solely responsible for  the little country being able to do anything   at all. And only one side understands  this dynamic, and that's the big country.   So, the vice president of the United States last  Thursday said some of this in public. He said,  

"By the way, who spent more to defend Israel  in the last 3 months during the course of this   war? Was it Israel or the United States?" No, the  United States spent more money defending Israel   than Israel spent defending itself. Not whining  about it, not attacking Israel, but just like,   hey, for a little perspective here, your cities  are still largely intact because American   taxpayers paid to defend them. By the way, to our  own detriment, we now lack the defensive capacity   to send American troops other places in the world  if we needed to because we expended it defending   you in a war that you got us into. So, the vice  president said that and then he said this in a now   famous clip which is worth re-watching. Here it  is. What I will say, and this does bother me, is   that you have seen people within BB's cabinet who  have come out and attacked the deal and in some   ways very personally attacked the president of  the United States. And I guess my message to them   would be twofold. Number one, Donald J. Trump is  the only head of state in the entire world who is   sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment  in time and he happens to be the head of state of   the world superpower. If I was in the cabinet of  the Israeli government, I might not be attacking   the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left  in the entire world. Yeah. You think I mean that's   the most ad obvious advice and it is advice.  It's it's criticism but it's not an attack.  

It's an acknowledgement of reality and it's a it's  a call to change behavior. It's hey, whoa, whoa,   whoa, whoa, whoa. You know, you've got some ideas  that are totally wrong. It would be like you get   an argument with one of your kids who's in college  and the kids's like, I don't care what you think,   man. And you're like, whoa, son, I'm paying the  tuition, okay? So, if you want to pay your own   tuition, you can do whatever you want, but as  long as I'm paying for it, you got to hear me   out. That's a conversation probably every parent  has at some point. It's not an expression of hate   toward the child. It's a reminder to the child  that you are not independent. You're not an adult.   How do we know you're not an adult? Because you're  not living independently. That's why. And that   is the measure. If you can take care of your own  stuff, then I'll respect you as an equal or a peer   anyway. But if I'm paying for everything, you got  to hear me out. My interests and my feelings also   matter. In fact, they matter quite a bit because  I'm paying for it all. And that's pretty much what   JD Vance said to Israel. Not I hate you, but hey,  wake up guys. No, you're all spun up into a state,   but like here's some reality for you. And then he  went on to say, as noted, that we paid for more   of your defense than you did. So, you would think,  and JD Vance doesn't hate Israel at all. In fact,   probably a lot of people on the right think  he's way too comfortable with Israel. But but   whatever. This is not an attack, okay, at all. And  it's true. most important, whatever its intent,   whatever the motive was, it is factually true.  There's no arguing that. What's the untrue part  

of that? There isn't one. So he says this. So  you would think in a country that's thinking   clearly with wise people who envision a future  for themselves, someone would say, you know what,   there's you're right. Like everybody hates us. We  literally our prime minister has been indicted for   war crimes in civilized countries. The whole world  is against us. This is our patron. This the only   country that's with us. Maybe we shouldn't give  them the finger in public. Maybe we shouldn't   blow up a peace deal that's essential to their  survival as an economic power, right? Don't you   think? And by the way, they've done a lot for us.  It's America. No, that's not what they said. Oh,   they said the opposite. They attacked JD  Vance as an anti-semite. Oh, really? Now,   anti-semite. Okay, here's what a not this is not  a French character. This is like a very well-known   and highly regarded Israeli defense analyst, Ben  Sabti. He works at a security think tank, Israel's   Institute for National Security Studies. Here's  what he tweeted on Sunday a few days later. Quote,   "Maybe USA needs another Pearl Harbor or 911 to  remember who is the enemy and who is the friend.   Maybe America needs another 911." Oo, now keep in  mind it was this same leadership establishment. In   fact, it was Benjamin Netanyahu himself 25 years  ago after 9/11, the event 9/11, the biggest, most   damaging terror attack in American history, who  said this a good thing because it reminds America  

that we're on the same side. We're fighting  against the 19 Arabs with box cutters or whoever   supposedly did that. So, this is a sentiment.  It's the ugliest possible sentiment. It's   rooting for your supposed friend to suffer. It's  rooting for civilian terror deaths in your allies   nation. That's not right. What? There's no uglier  sentiment than that. But it's also something that   like you would never say in public ever. Even if  you had a dark thought like that, you would never   say it. You couldn't say something like maybe  another 9/11. It's like, you know, saying to your   spouse, maybe you, you know, you don't understand  me. Maybe if you got stage four pancreatic cancer,   you would understand how much I'm suffering.  You don't wish stage four pancreatic cancer   on a friend. Okay? You wished on an enemy. And of  course, it's also a threat. I mean, let's be real,   that's a threat. Maybe you need another 911. Oh,  another 911. Okay. Now, says the Israeli security   official. All right. Does he work for a moving  company? Anyway, you see the point? Like, what the   hell are you doing? So, you would think, by the  way, if you're an American who supported Israel,   and there are good people in the United States  who sincerely support Israel, Jews and Christians,   you would look at this and you'd be like, "Whoa,  whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. This is not good." First   of all, as an American, I'm outraged that anyone  would talk to us that way or treat us that way   or make a threat against us, maybe another 911.  But you would also say if you cared about Israel,  

like man, that's self-defeating, that kind of  thinking, those kind of threats. Like that's   crazy talk. Like there's no way you can win. Okay,  so pull back a little bit. That's what you'd think   people would say. But that's not what they said.  That's not what Israel's agents in the United   States were saying. No, they doubled down on it.  And I'm going to play this clip. I hate almost to   do it because, you know, of of all the 535 members  of Congress, House and Senate, there are a few,   just a few. I most of you just disagree with, but  there are a couple who are just like so repulsive   that you think this person is trying to turn me  into a hater. So, I'm just going to avert my gaze.   I don't even want anything to do with this person.  And and the following member of Congress from the   state of Florida is definitely in that category.  But just for context, this is Randy Fine. He's a   new member. This is the guy who tweeted laughing  emojis at the picture of a murdered Arab child,   possibly a Christian child, in Gaza. So, this  is someone who, you know, should not be serving   in the United States Congress, whose presence  really in this country is humiliating to all   of us because Americans are better than that.  Overwhelmingly, most Americans are not going   to laugh at a photograph of a dead child, but  he did. Anyway, here's what Randy Fine said.   This is a sitting member of Congress in response  to the vice president's accurate, justified, and   totally reasonable, level-headed assessment of the  dynamic between the US and Israel. Watch JD Vance  

from the podium yesterday uh chastising uh critics  of this deal coming from Israel. Uh that was   pretty unprecedented by JD Vance. I'm surprised he  went that far. Yeah, look, I thought JD's comments   yesterday were absolutely inappropriate and  frankly disgusting. The state of Israel was not   created by the United States. It is not funded by  the United States, except in some small way. Um,   it was created in the blood and sweat and tears  of the Jewish people arising out of the Holocaust.   The United States didn't support Israel during  its formation. In fact, there were times when it   put arms embargos in place. And JD Vance would be  wise to go back and learn his history. I think his   comments today were completely out of line. Learn  his history. It's almost the whole thing is almost   unbelievable. The vice president and this could  not a defense of JD Vance. It's any politician who   said that. Joe Biden said that any normal person  the same response like okay maybe I don't like Joe   Biden or whatever but that's just true. It's just  it's just true. What is untrue about it? Well,   Randy Fine didn't tell us what was untrue about  it. Neither did the host who set up the question.   It was unprecedented. Unfortunately, that's  true. It was unprecedented for any American   public official from the White House or affiliated  with the White House to say anything that was even   mild chastisement of Israel. To deviate from the  script so familiar to Americans, we love you.   You're special. The rules don't apply to you.  Whatever you want to do, we will back you. In  

fact, our whole country depends on you. We didn't  create you. You created us. or in the famous words   of Nikki Haley, America needs Israel more than  Israel needs America. This kind of stuff, this   non nonsense talk has been going on for decades  really because no one has ever stood up and said,   "What are you talking about, Nikki Haley? How in  the world would the United States need Israel more   than Israel needs the United States?" Not attack  on Israel, but like what are you talking about?   Shut up, Nazi. All right. now, but because  of decisions forced and inspired by Israel's   defenders in the United States, we can't avoid  where we are now, which is at a place where lots   of Americans who were agnostic on the question or  pro-Israel or just didn't think about it, didn't   care, are waking up to the reality this is really  bad for us. And their reaction, its agents in the   United States, including Randy Fine, is shut up,  Holocaust. They built it because of the Holocaust.   Well, I mean, okay, without even getting any  debate about how Israel was built, under what   circumstances, who did it, it's a little more  complicated than that. Actually, was controlled   by Britain and a lot of British diplomats and  soldiers and officers had to be killed in terror   attacks before they finally abandoned it to the  settlers. But but whatever. Leaving that aside to   invoke the Holocaust with no mention of the fact  that tens of hundreds of thousands of American men  

died fighting the Nazi regime. United States did  not abet the Holocaust. The United States fought   the Nazis and hundreds of thousands of Americans  died and many more were wounded and their lives   destroyed fighting the Nazis. So, you would  think if you're an American member of Congress,   you would preface every reference to the  Holocaust with, you know, a lot of Americans   paid the ultimate sacrifice fighting this stuff.  But no, he would never say that because it would   absolve America of the unearned guilt from those  murders 80 years ago. So, of course, the point of   invoking the Holocaust is to say, "Hey, you've got  a lot to feel guilty for. Shut up." But of course,   the United States has nothing to feel guilty  for. Zero. When it comes to its relationship with   Israel, the United States has done a lot more for  Israel than Israel has done for the United States.   That's just a fact. It's a math question.  Show me numbers that contradict that. You   can't because they don't exist. They don't even  nothing in that realm exists. But here you have a   man with no moral authority to speak on any topic  lecturing the US government in his own party. He's   a Republican. This is a Republican vice president,  Republican administration. But these questions for   Randy Fine supersede party ID because the most  important thing in Randy Fine's life is the   fortunes of the Israeli government, not of Israel  itself. By the way, if you cared about Israel,   you would not take Randy Fine's position. You  would not laugh at a genocide. Everyone who laughs  

at a genocide is going to be punished, including  Randy Fine. At some point, people committed the   genocide will be punished most harshly, and that's  the Israeli government. So, like, it's not in   their long-term interest to encourage this kind of  criminal behavior, obviously, anymore. It' be in   your kids' interest to give them heroin, no matter  how much they wanted it. If you loved your kids,   don't give them heroin. If you love your ally  Israel, don't abet genocide because it's not going   to end well for them or for you. But whatever.  Randy Fine, when he hears any, not even criticism,   mild chastisement of Israel, immediately  launches into holocaust mode. This is not   sustainable. That's kind of the point. Obviously,  it's not justifiable, but it's not sustainable.   So when you, you know, tune in to Fox and  they're doing yet another segment, the rise   in anti-semitism in America, and you think, well,  maybe there is a rise in anti-semitism in America.   There's certainly a massive rise in distrust of  Israel. Massive. But where does that come from? Is   it because people woke up morning like, you know  what, I'm going to blame all my problems on the   Jews. They just hate the Jews. It's an ancient  hatred. I'm mad they've been poisoning wells   or whatever. Just millions of Americans decide to  become irrationally hateful one day. Probably not.

probably not just anti-semitism. It's not just  this ancient ancient hatred that just rears its   head randomly like a bubanic plague or something.  No, it's not an act of nature in this specific   case. And it's not aimed at all Jews. Hardly.  It's disapproval at the behavior of a secular   government that we fund. And everybody knows  that except for the tiny percentage and it's   a very tiny percentage. Most of them seem to have  congressional seats of American leaders who seem   to sincerely believe and I will give Randy Fine  credit for sincerity probably sincerely believe   that the only motive for criticizing the secular  government of Israel must be irrational Jew   hatred. They of course they don't even address you  know the many many Jews in good standing who have   the same view of the governor of is government of  Israel which is it's bad it's terrible for the US.   They don't even address people like that because  that you know it's just the cognitive dissonance   is just unbearable. Like what what do you do with  Glenn Greenwald? You're not really Jewish. Shut   up. You're a Nazi. Okay. Yeah. So basically the  point is when you have criticism that is rooted   not in hatred but in reality and when you have a  fundamental conflict of interest, Israel needs to   have one thing. The much larger patron country  needs to have another thing. You're facing a   really tough situation that you have to assess  critically, rationally, non-emotionally, with an  

aim to minimizing damage on all sides. What you  don't do is threaten another 9/11 if you don't   get your way because you may pull off another 911,  okay? But it's not going to change the fundamental   dynamic. And the only people who don't understand  this at this point are the bitter enders in the US   Congress and the American Neocon commentariat.  They just have no idea. And that is a recipe   for collision. For collision. So here's and I'll  stop with this before we get to an analysis from   geopolitical expert Brandon Wert on where we are  in this conflict and how we can get out of it and   what the cost might be when we do. But this clip  just really kind of says it all. So this is from   Fox News which was at one point I guess a broadly  conservative back when that term had meaning cable   network familiar with it of course a lot of  great people there but it has become in the   last year sort of a non-stop cheerleader for  the most nihilistic kind of military action.   military action that has no assured positive  outcome. Really, the point of it is just to   like kill people apparently. Like, what is the  point? No one ever explains that. But you're   you're a weakling and unpatriotic and probably a  secret Muslim if you're not for it. I mean, it's   literally it is nihilism. You can't tell me why  this is a good idea. You can only attack me for   not getting on board with it. Okay, that's very  dark. You never want to find yourself advocating  

for things like that, but they are. And because  they are and because it's the most important thing   to the network for reasons that are not clear,  all of a sudden every other issue is subsumed into   that. It's it's not important at all. So you you  find yourself in a place where you have longtime   conservative not just cable news hosts but but  figures like very famous people recognizable   people been doing this for 30 years but in your  bedroom for 30 years telling you that what matters   are the conservative values and those would be  roughly in order small government lower taxes   entrepreneurship family values pro-life you know  no castrating heads. All of a sudden, you have   people like that making common cause, in fact,  not just common cause, but celebrating figures on   the other side with whom they agree on nothing  except the need for the United States to keep   funding irrational, counterproductive, genocidal  behavior in a foreign country because that's all   that matters. So you wind up with a tableau like  the one we're about to show you where you've got   Sean Hannity commiserating with John Federman  who's very liberal on everything except Israel and   who knows even what liberal means now but he's on  the other side of every other issue except Israel   which for reasons either of cognitive impairment  or campaign donations he's decided is the only  

issue that matters and they're looking right  into Cameron telling you, "Yeah, any criticism   of Israel is just Jew hate and it means you're a  bad American." This is the kind of clip that will   be preserved in the Museum of National Decline  at some point. Like, how did this great country   dissolve? Well, because the people went insane.  The people with the most power went insane. They   started saying things that make no sense at all.  And this will definitely be in that exhibit. So,   here's Sean Hannity and John Federman. All right,  let me ask this. Why? Why the deep hatred for   Israel? Why? Yeah, because because I mean if if  you you have such contempt for Israel, I mean,   of course, you're also anti-American and you're  anti-western civilian civilization and you're,   you know, seem anti- capitalism and the American  way of life. I mean, it's like so tempting to get   literal. Okay. So, a socialist country, which is  Israel, not attacking him, just saying, founded by   socialist on socialist principles. It's not a free  market country. It's run by the government and the   military. It's like the opposite of free market  country. It's pretty successful country, you know,   for a bunch of reasons. But if you don't support  Israel, you're against capitalism. And you're   against America. Is there any other foreign nation  to which this is applies? If you don't support   Malddova, if you don't support Estonia, you don't  support Guinea Basau, you don't like America,  

where are you in Namibia? Countries like equal in  relative significance globally. Like they they're   not really players. Israel is not really a player  except to the extent that we imbue it with value   because our politicians have been lobbied by them.  But like inherently, why do we care about Israel   or Guinea Basau? We don't. But do you ever hear  politicians say, "Where are you on Guinea Basau?   Where are you on French Guyana? You got to get  on board with French Guyana. Put a French gy   flag on your lapel or you hate America. You're  against capitalism." You'd be like, "What? You   got a head injury, pal?" Like what? Lay off the  psilocybin. It's not not helping. but says that   with a straight face and then has the gull to say  and this is not an attack on poor Federman who is   impaired or on poor Hannity who was also impaired.  This is just a reminder of what reality is. You're   an enemy of Western civilization. Okay. Now, now  you've roused me from my slumber. I'm an enemy   of Western civilization. So, you're begging the  question then, what is Western civilization? Well,   it's a lot of things that emanate from Rome,  Israel's ancient enemy. But let's just put it   succinctly. At the core of this thing we  call Western civilization, upon which our   society is based, is the idea of justice. What is  justice in the west in this thing called Western   civilization? Justice is the notion that we punish  the guilty and we spare the innocent. And it is  

not simply an accident for which we're sort of  sorry. It is a grave offense against the idea of   justice itself to ever punish the innocent. And  that's why we go through an elaborate process   called the justice system to prevent doing  that. We don't have a justice system to make   it easier to convict people. We have a justice  system to make it harder. So terrified are we at   the prospect of hurting the innocent. That is the  core idea of Western civilization. Where does that   idea come from? That idea comes from a Christian  understanding of the human soul. The human soul,   your soul is co-equal with every other human soul  because God created every human being. People in   western civilization don't think they are uniquely  chosen by God and therefore exempt from universal   rules. They don't believe that. They believe  just the opposite. They believe that people in   yes guinea basau well maybe not welcome here to  partake in our welfare state but are nevertheless   equal to us on the most basic moral level because  they are human beings. And that's why we think   called human rights. So that idea is the basis of  western civilization. And because it is western   civilization is precluded from doing the thing  that all tyrannies do that univilized nations do   which is punish on the basis of bloodline. There  is no blood guilt in western civilization. There   cannot be because it is a direct contradiction of  the west's understanding of the human soul. You   are different from your father and your mother and  your ancestors going back however many thousand  

years because you are you. You are a distinct  soul created by God and you cannot be killed   because you were related to people the murderer  doesn't like. That is the most repugnant thing in   this collective we call western civilization. And  that is the very thing that Israel embraces. So,   you can say whatever you want about Israel, and  I've said honestly many times, great country in a   lot of ways, charming, smart people, lots of great  things. But the Israeli government has abandoned   the central tenant of Western civilization,  which is justice on an individual basis,   and instead adopted an older and darker and  I would say evil standard of blood guilt.   So don't lecture me about Western civilization  and tell me that if I don't defend Israel, I don't   defend Western civilization. I oppose the policies  of Israel precisely because I do defend Western   civilization. John Federman. Well, a lot of  organizations talk about supporting veterans, but   not all of them actually do it. Not even close.  And that's why we only partner with companies   we know are telling the truth and really working  earnestly to make a difference. Black Rifle Coffee   is one of them. and we've been partners with them  for years. We know them. Black Rifle supports   good-hearted American philanthropies like Boot  Campaign. For years, Boot Campaign has provided   individualized care for veterans and military  families dealing with the wounds of foreign wars,   PTSD, chronic pain, traumatic brain injuries.  When you get your coffee from Black Rifle,   which we do cuz that's delicious, you help keep  missions like Boot Campaigns alive. Caring for  

American Heroes does not stop when they leave the  military. That's why companies like Black Rifle   and groups like Boot Campaign are vital to help  today. Visit boot campaign.org boot campaign.org.   So with that, as promised, one of the most  insightful and most knowledgeable sources on   what's happening in this conflict with Iran and  Israel and Lebanon and all the different players   in this now global drama, has been a man called  Brandon Wikert, who was a geopolitical analyst,   someone most people probably weren't familiar  with before this conflict, but since it began,   a lot of people have been tuning into regularly  to understand what is going on and to get facts   about it. So we are honored to have him join us  now. Brandon, thanks so much for coming on. So can   you just start big picture? Thank you. And tell  us where are we now? Last time we when we left   the serial, we were on the verge of negotiating  out this memorandum of understanding thisou.   How is that going? Where are we? Well, we have to  remember, well, first of all, it's going better,   I think, than what we were doing about a week ago,  which is shooting at everything. So, that's a win.   It's a It's a low bar these days, but I take  that as a win. Um, but it's only 60 days. And,   um, the three parties involved, uh, because  remember, it's not a a two-party um, issue. It's   not just US and Iran. If it were, I think we could  probably get this thing wrapped up pretty quickly.  

The third party is, as you noted, uh, Israel, and  they're not really a party to the negotiations.   Um, and they don't perceive themselves,  this is very important, as being bound,   uh, by the the negotiations that are ongoing. So  the only way that they would really be restrained   from say doing something to blow up this  very tenuous temporary right now 60-day   atmost ceasefire uh would be if the president of  the United States basically brought the hammer   uh down on his counterparty in Tel Aviv uh and  told them we are going to cut you off if you   do anything to meddal. And I can assure you that  the Israeli government is looking to complicate   this this process um right now. So where are we  right now? Well, we have not had a resumption of   hostilities. Today that we are doing this show. We  had I think the highest number of ships go through   the straight of Hormuse since the the war really  began. The number I believe I want to say was 43   uh which is high for post what was going on in  the war. But I want your audience to remember   that this is about and I have the numbers  here. Just give me one second. This is about   um 20 to 30% of normal pre-war capacity. Uh what  that means is the pre-war baseline for container   and oil ships getting through the straight hormuse  was about 120 to 140 ships. that was around 100  

million barrels of oil uh every week. We are we  are nowhere near that right now. So there's a lot   of um irrational exuberance coming from Washington  DC because they got to spin this thing as best as   they can. Uh we're seeing a decline in the price  of oil because of the mini glut. You see a lot   of ships were blocked from leaving the straight  Hormuse the last two months. Now that the straight   is somewhat reopen, they're leaving. And we're  not really seeing a commiserate increase in ships   coming to collect new oil, it's mostly outgoing.  So until that changes, people like me are going to   be on pins and needles. I think what's happening  here with the price of energy going to about $72   a barrel, which is pre-war level. And good for us,  it's good for our wallets right now. That's a mini   glut. And a lot of oil experts were anticipating  this before the the war really got going. Uh also   for the last 2 months, China basically pulled  themselves voluntarily off the global market.   They have the world's largest strategic petroleum  reserve. 1.4 billion barrels of oil was in their   SPR. So what they did was as soon as the Straight  Hormuse was shut down, they took themselves off   the market. That is one of the reasons you've seen  these sort of bizarre downturns when everybody was   expecting the price to go up. It's because China  pulled themselves off the market. When they come  

back onto the market, and they will soon, that's  going to cause problems. That's the civilian side   of the story. Uh the military side, Tucker,  and feel free if you want me to stop just No,   I'm I'm I'm learning. Thank you. Okay. Yeah.  Well, thank you. And it's and it's come to this. I   have to wear glasses nowadays. But um the weapons  depletion rate um this is all publicly available.   I do not deal in classified information.  I am a public person. I don't I don't deal   in stolen information because that is something  that's been lobbed at me in recent weeks. Um, so   missile interceptors, about 50% of the inventory  of Patriot ballistic missile interceptors and 50   likely closer to 80% of terminal high alitude  area defense interceptors were expended in   the course of the war. Over 1,000, that's  about a third of our entire stockpile of   um Tomahawk cruise missiles has been expended.  large quantities of the JASM missiles uh as well   as pretty much the entire pre-war inventory of  new precision strike missiles, the prisms that   were used. Also, interestingly enough, because we  were told there was never any threat to our Navy,   this is why of course they never really dared  to go through the straight moves. Um, the Navy   reports that they expended large quantities  of their SM3 and SM6 naval interceptors,   which indicates to me, if I may conjecture here,  that there must have been one hell of a fight over  

uh the security of our ships when the war was in  its kinetic phase. So, the the White House was   lying when they said that the ships were totally  safe. Our ships were very much at risk obviously   from these numbers. Furthermore, uh there are now  significant uh gaps in the supply chain for those   naval defenders. One last bit of data I'd like  to deliver here. Uh the um I'm sorry, that's the   wrong one. The chart here I have is for the Prism.  We blew through our pre-ro pre-war stock which   was already low. They're saying the best estimate  will be it will be replenished by late this year.   The JASM air-tos surface missiles uh will probably  be replaced middle of next year. Those SM3 SM6   Navy defense missiles will take until about mid  2028. Those Patriot interceptors not until closer   to 2030. The THAAD interceptors and the THAADs are  the real important ones. That's not going to come   until probably 2030. Uh and the Tomahawks will not  be replaced for another 5 years. So we better hope   that the Chinese or uh some other area of interest  is no longer uh requiring our assistance because   we have depleted ourselves. Uh Tucker and I will  just add and conclude my little statement here   with unfortunately it is my assessment that this  memorandum of understanding that might or may not   lead to a longer deal. I'm very skeptical of that.  I think we'll get a 60-day reprieve and then it'll   be like the tariffs. It'll be every 45 days we're  getting an extension. Uh but I would just add that  

what we have agreed to the Trump administration  and they didn't have a choice because the   president already said we were going to run out  of oil in 4 weeks. So he was up against a wall   and good for him for doing this. But ultimately  this is a conditional surrender document. The   United States started a war and it promptly lost.  The Iranians have unfortunately strategically at   the strategic level they have achieved victory.  And where I think this goes geopolitically is a   postamerican middle east in which Israel is likely  now the pariah state. Whereas before the war,   you'll remember even even after 107 the Abraham  Accords were really still in effect. And they were   working Israel as sort of the center of this new  USbacked order in the Middle East. That's gone.   And there's now going to be a new Middle East  and it's going to comprise and this is my friend   Dr. Art Dr. Art Meny. This has been his thesis as  well. Uh and I agree with him. There's going to be   five powers in the Middle East now. Um it's going  to be Saudi Arabia, the Islamic Republic of Iran,   uh Pakistan with their nuclear umbrella. Uh the  Egyptians, second largest economy in Africa,   uh one of the best, I think it's probably  the best conventional military in the Muslim   world. Uh and then Turkey with its very  impressive industrial indigenous base.   Uh remember Jonathan Kenrikus, the former IDF  spokesman at the JNS conference this last week,   uh implied that the Israelis could not build an  F-35 on their own. I would add uh that's true,   but actually the Turks are proving with their  new con fighter. Uh that they absolutely could on  

their own. They don't need the US and NATO uh they  have a very proficient defense industrial base.   those Middle East powers or greater Middle East  powers. Uh cuz obviously Pakistan, Egypt, and   Turkey are not technically in the Middle East. Uh  but those greater Middle East powers are going to   form the new postamerican order. And um you know,  where it goes from here really is up to really Mr.   Netanyahu and his government. Tucker, the whole  point of keeping a gun at home for self-defense   is to defend yourself and your family, especially  when you're not expecting a threat. You don't know   when the threat may arise. You have to be able  to get to your firearm quickly but prevent other   people from getting it illicitly. Well, Stopbox  Pro is the answer. So, storing your firearm used   to be a huge problem. You had to put it somewhere  far away that was hard to get to or you had to   leave it out in the open where anyone could get  to it. Not good. Stopbox is the solution. With a   five button interface, stopbox requires no keys  and no batteries, but you get immediate access,   but you're the only one who has access. That  means you can keep it in your office, your closet,   you can even keep it right on the table. Stopbox  Pro is made in the United States. That means   buying it supports meaningful American jobs here.  Stopbox also offers a range of product design for   an array of needs. Take the new Stopbox UK, which  uses the same mechanical system as his Pro, but   has a much bigger capacity. You got room for guns,  ammo, targets, whatever you want. For a limited   time only, this show's listeners get 10% off at  Stopbox when you use the code Tucker at checkout.  

Visit stopboxusa.com. Use the code Tucker for  10% off your whole order. After your purchase,   Stopbox will ask you where you heard about  them. Feel free to mention us. I mean, that is,   as I've thought from really a couple weeks into  this conflict, that is a disaster for Israel. And,   you know, it's not my job to defend Israel. It  has enough defenders in our country. Uh, but just   objectively speaking, I don't think the outcome  could be much worse strategically for Israel. So,   um, and I don't think they're good stewards of  their own future. I don't think they're wise. I   don't think they're helping. Certainly not their  government, their their government. I knew I know   there are about about 20% of Israelis are not okay  with what's going on. What's really surprising,   Tucker, is, you know, my colleague Kieran Andrew  has been talking about this to me for for a   long time is just how consistently supportive  majority Israelis are of the Netanyahu policies,   even if they don't like Netanyahu, they're okay  with what he's doing. And I argue what he's been   doing since 107 has put them in this position.  Oh, yeah. No, it's truly it's a disaster. And I I   think the vice president put it best when he said,  "You can't kill your way out of every problem."   And and that's just a that's a fact. That's a  physics principle really. It's like not even   a judgment. It's just true. And so, but  here's my question. Like, how do they So,   now you have the regional powers are all Muslim  states, by the way, majority Muslim states,  

and they're all kind of hostile to Israel.  And they have reason to be hostile to Israel.   And Israel spent the last number of decades  making bellose noises at all these governments,   assassinating people in their countries, basically  treating them like animals, and now they're kind   of in charge of one of the critical regions in  the world. So where does that leave Israel? Well,   they're going to be basically the way we treated  Iran for the last 47 years, the Israelis will now   be treated that way. Um, and it is not because  particularly the Arab states woke up and said,   "We're going to screw Israel." Um, you remember  again the Abraham Accords were still being pushed   by even Saudi Arabia behind the scenes until about  October, November of last year. What happened? the   Israelis decided to intreat uh with Hamas and got  their leadership to go or their negotiators to go   to Qatar, meet in Doha under diplomatic cover.  Uh the Israelis said they were sending their   diplomats and what they ended up sending was a  cruise missile into the building in Doha and they   ended up uh killing a a Qatari security agent.  They ended up wounding they didn't even tactically   it was a disaster for them. They didn't even kill  the targets. They ended up killing a bunch of   low-level guys from Hamas. The big guys survived.  Then they came back even angrier. Go figure. Um,   but furthermore, at that point, that was the first  time that Israel had struck a golf, a GCC country,  

uh, which had been going along quite well  with the Abraham Accords. At that point,   since last November when those strikes  occurred, that was September. September 9th,   was it September? I'm sorry. Day before Charlie  Kirk was killed. Charlie, you're you're Wow.   You're absolutely right. It was September.  Yes, I apologize. Thank you for correcting   me. Um but but it was in the fall of last year.  And the point is is that uh this shift occurred   and a momentum began building in which all of  the Arab states looked around and said, "Okay,   uh it's not Iran that's crazier now. It's  actually the Israelis." Exactly. And that's   the key to understand it because all the Arab  states for the most part, the governments at   least were agreeing with Iran with Israel saying  Iran's a bigger problem than anything we dealt   with the Israelis. That flipped on its head  almost instantly. And the Americans were of   course stuck holding the bag because we gave the  cruise missile. We we've been providing diplomatic   cover. We've been providing economic aid. Trump  has been has been providing political cover uh for   Netanyahu on a personal basis, leaderto leader.  You know, he's the one begging uh the Nesset for   pardons for Netanyahu and his top people. So,  um the the Arab states looking around going,   not only are the Israelis going to be a problem,  but we got to get the Americans out of here now,   too. And that is at play here because we lost  a bunch of our bases, or rather they've been   degraded, as the Pentagon keeps saying. Um those  bases are not coming back online in any meaningful   sense. Tucker, because the Arabs know they have  to get us out, at least the level that we're at  

because otherwise they can't they can't contain  Israel. And now you're going to see a real flip   from trying to contain Iran to now trying to  contain Israel. And that's what I think is   going to play out over the next 5 years. I I I I  don't know how that's going to play out. I think   your analysis is spoton, very smart, and I hope  people are listening to this. But I just wonder   how it unfolds because Israel feels legitimately  threatened. And you could say Israel has a very   long history of hyping threats and we heard Randy  Fine invoke the Holocaust. Okay, settle down Randy   Fine. But this is a real threat. It's almost like  all of their hyperbole became real. Like they are   actually threatened now. It is a self-fulfilling  prophecy, but it's been fulfilled. So like now   if you have a country like Israel or really any  country that feels Russia that feels cornered   that's a very dangerous country. Yeah. Well no  if certainly and if you're a neighbor of Israel   you know you're you're going to have to always be  looking over your shoulder. But this is only going   to compel the regional powers to align against  Israel even more. The reason the Egyptians even   were thinking about getting closer to Saudi and  Pakistan and Turkey uh in this new alliance is   because the Israelis woke up after 107 and started  pushing all the Palestinian Arabs trying to get   them in Gaza to go to the Sinai desert. And  the Egyptians were saying, "We have all these   deals with you. We've covered for you Israel. WTF,  man. Like what are you doing?" And so, you know,  

this is part of the problem. So you're I think  I I think what you're getting at is and maybe   I'm wrong is does this risk nuclear exchange of  or something. I mean it's so it's too it Israel   is under too much pressure. I don't think their  leaders are thinking clearly at all. I I know   Israelis who are thinking clearly. You're right  to say there is a percentage of the population   that's like shocked by what their government is  doing. But the government is not thinking clearly   at all. To have some guy threaten 9/11 against  the United States on Twitter like this is there.   We're in a crazy stage I think of their history.  So like I'm just concerned that they're under too   much Yeah. under too much pressure. Yeah. No. So  you know the there is a real chance that they will   do something with nuclear weapons. I wouldn't  say though it is yet a probability. Um, I think   if if Netanyahu is not in power, I suspect even if  it's a hardline leader, which it probably will be,   they will probably play things a bit more sly,  they'll be a little bit more sly about it. And   um I think part of that is because they can't  count anymore on America always having their back.   If they use a nuke, that's pretty much it. That's  the final. And I'm not saying they won't, but I I   just I'm not ready to say that is I thought that  at the beginning of the war when everything just   looked to be going so fast, but I look now  and it looks to me like both on some level   the Iranians have pulled back from some of their  extreme rhetoric. And while Israel was really  

going hard against Lebanon, the fact is I don't  yet know if they are ready to pull the nuclear   trigger because that is it then. Um, and I think  that a lot of Israelis tell themselves, "Look,   we've always been the pariah. We've always been on  the outside, on the periphery, and we'll just deal   with that." Um, and we'll be stronger. Um, so that  I hope is what the thought is, but it it is still,   yes, it is it is a higher probability or higher  possibility, but I wouldn't say probable just yet,   that that under these conditions they would go  nuclear. I saw this last year where the talking   points from Israel's agents in the United States  were rolled out about how Qatar was funding Hamas.   Well, they were saying you were funded by Qatar.  Yeah, right. Yeah, I was funded by Qatar. Yeah,   I'm I'm the one who's an agent of a foreign power.  So, I just ignored it. But it's so it's so insane.   You know, every accusation is an admission, but is  a projection, right? It really is. But they they   started to say Qatar is funding Hamas. I don't  think most Americans are aware that Qatar sent   money to Hamas at the request of Israel. Okay.  They were doing a solid for BB Netanyahu. So,   I was Who was taking a vig, by the way, he  was taking a cut. This is one of the reasons   he was under investigation by his own government.  Exactly. So, I knew this, but I didn't want to say   it because like no one would believe it. Sounds  so crazy. Yes. Qatar sent money to Hamas because   Israel, why would Israel want money to go to  Hamas? I didn't want to get into it, so I didn't   say it, but I knew it. And then I watched as these  propagandists started to convince themselves that   Qatar, which is like the most moderate country  in the world, is somehow like the main sponsor  

of terror. And the next thing you know, they're  bombing Qatar in the middle of a negotiation,   which I agree with you was a was a pivotal moment  in the history of that region. And Trump thought   that, too. Trump was completely outraged by it.  But right, he humiliated Netanyahu. Remember,   he made sit with the phone in the Oval Office.  And then he's like, "We're going to build a   Qatari military base in Idaho just to like show  you how much we love Qar." And he actually does   love Qar. I mean, they gave him a new plane. But  my point is I watch this process which is familiar   I think to all people where you tell a lie and  then you convince yourself the lie is true and   you get so overroought believing your own lie that  you do something crazy. I guess that's the thing   I'm worried about. Yeah. No, and that's certainly  a possibility. Look, Israel is a very ideological   state. You know, it's interesting because I  think you and I probably come from the same kind   of ideological origin story. And um I was always  led to believe I wrote a book not long ago about   about the threat of Iran and it's this ideological  crazy power. If they get the nuke it's going to   be suicide bombing with nukes. It's the end. And I  you know you look at how they conducted themselves   in this war Tucker and again I hate that they  beat us cuz I'm I love America so I you know   I'm not happy that that but but they actually  conducted themselves quite responsibly. Uh,   the Iranian military did not go crazy. The Iranian  military did not send suicide bombers to go blow   up civilian. I mean, they didn't do the things  I think you and I were taught to believe Oh,  

yeah. they would do. And that's a good thing, by  the way. That's a very good thing because it means   that they're they're they can be reasoned with  on some level. Not that I'm saying I trust them,   but uh, you know, they have self-interest and  and that's a very powerful motivator here.   And they're very smart about protecting their  interests. the Israelis come across now as the   ideological power as the ones who might actually I  mean look at this thing in Lebanon. Listen Tucker   um I know you mentioned in your in your commentary  that you know they had taken half of the country.   They actually took like I think like 25% maybe.  Um but the the Israeli Defense Force are running   these 2006 tactics against a 2026 Hezbollah force  and it's having really devastating results for the   IDF. It just this time a month ago you had the  IDF chief of staff telling publicly twice. He   said at the Times of Israel and he said it while  he was talking to the I think the uh cabinet for   Netanyahu saying that the IDF is on the brink of  collapse if we don't get a massive surge of new   recruits uh into the IDF in southern Lebanon. And  the reason that they've been struggling is because   they're using their Marava main battle tanks to  basically run up the gut to basically go into   these urban centers where they are basically they  can't maneuver. They can't work around the way   they need to. And Hezbollah is waiting. They're  lying in weight and they've got these drones and   they've got these anti-tank guided munitions just  like the Ukrainians had at the beginning of the  

of the war with Russia and the Russians were  not prepared for that and that's why you had   in the beginning such a large number of Russian  tanks getting annihilated. It was because the   Ukrainians had figured out how to do this new  form of anti-tank warfare. The Israelis watched   all of this. They didn't learn any of it though.  They didn't learn a thing. They've lost upwards   possibly, and it's very murky, but they might  have lost as many as 60 MAVA main battle tanks   just because they keep running these things up  the gut not using them on the periphery of battle   as that's how you're supposed to use them. Now, I  had a long conversation in December with the great   uh Danny Davis, Colonel Davis, and you know,  former tank commander, and or he was in the   in the armored infantry, and he sort of walked  me through in great detail what tanks need to   be or how tanks need to be used today in modern  combat. The Israelis know how they're supposed   to be used. They won't use them. And so, this  idea that they're even really being effective,   I don't actually think again on the strategic  level, they're really having the in the desired   impact. They're blowing a lot of stuff up. They're  killing a lot of people, but they're not actually   translating that into like a real political end  state. And what is the political end state? I   have been told by by former security officials in  Israel, and and this is really a bad way to put   it, but they call it the Gaza model. That's what  they want for for for southern Lebanon. They want   to create what they call a basically a desolate  security buffer between their northern tier region   and the southern component of Lebanon. That's what  they say. But the the even that they can't do it  

because what they're the way that they're fighting  this is completely not tethered to the way you're   supposed to fight the modern war as the Ukrainians  have shown us when it comes to tanks and the   Russians. Now, um, so I this a lot of myths  have been broken here and that makes the Israeli   political establishment, you're right, that makes  them more desperate because the myth of the IDF   as this, you know, they punch above their weight,  etc. That's really being dispelled in real time.   Everybody sees it and it's it's setting off alarm  bells uh among Israel leaders and they don't know   what to do. All they know is to keep pressing the  gas pedal and expanding. So, you know, it could   get very very bad here. Uh, you know, if this  thing continues as it is, inflation makes credit   card statements particularly scary. You work 40,  50 hours a week just to buy groceries and gas,   things you used to be able to afford without  thinking that much about it. Then the banks   charge you 20% interest. If the system is designed  to keep you underwater, it's working. But there's   another option. Our friends at American Financing  are doing something the big banks despise. They   are helping people. mortgage rates in the fives  supporting the American dream of home ownership   and they're showing homeowners how to take their  hard-earned equity to wipe out high interest debt.   Now, we're against debt in general, but in this  economy, most people have no choice at all. So,   don't go bankrupt enslaving yourself to to a  lender. Average savings are about 800 bucks a   month, and it takes only 10 minutes to talk to a  salarybased mortgage consultant. No upfront fees  

or obligation to see how much you can save.  Give American Financing a call 800685-5696. That's 1800685-55696 or visit  americanfinancing.net/tucker,   America's home for home loans. And and I I  think it was widely known. I mean, I remember   an American marine officer 25 years ago telling me  who'd done a lot of joint exercises with the IDF   and had friends in the IDF and, you know, wasn't  against Israel and I was pro-Israel actually,   but he's like, "Ah, they're not that they're not  that impressive at all." And they spend a lot   of time maintaining their reputation and sort of  less time, you know, becoming impressive. And so,   I think people knew that, but now everybody knows  it. And they also know it, I hate to say this,   but about the US military. Like, why if we have  all these aircraft carriers, which are the most,   you know, expensive war device ever built, and  we can't use them to open a straight that's not   that long. What are we doing? So, I I I don't  know if you're familiar, but but one of one of   my calling cards is I am one of the world's  biggest critics of the aircraft carrier. Uh,   so I am right with you here. I am um the the  the main battle tank, the aircraft carrier,   you could make the argument they're not quite  obsolete. I think in the case of the tank, I think   Danny Davis made that case in December to me very  well. It's just you have to use them differently.   But the carrier, the carrier, my god, it is so not  right for the kinds of wars that we're fighting  

today. It cannot provide, it can't defend itself.  So maybe it can launch some of their planes,   but we saw this with uh what was it? Operation  Prosperity Garden against the Houthy rebels where   basically the Houthy rebels chased Uncle Sam out  of the Red Sea and we have not gone back there   since 2024. Uh I talked to a a um a destroyer,  a guy who served on a destroyer during Operation   Prosperity Garden. Uh and he said that he has  in his entire career never seen anything like   the kind of hell that the Houthies were giving  the US Navy. And that was the Houthies. Now,   we're talking again about the Iranians, which  okay, they're not Russia or China, not yet. Um,   but but they clearly are a competent military  force. They clearly understand strategy and   tactics and they clearly employ those tactical  capabilities with very significant effect. They   kept us out of the straight of Hormuse, Tucker.  I know for a fact, I'm not going to say how,   but I know for a fact that we were moving forces  for a much bigger operation into the region. And   that whole thing was was stunted because partly  of the way in which we could not penetrate into   the straight Hormuz reliably. And if we couldn't  even send a ship for like a freedom of navigation   type operation, there was no way in hell the  Emeralds were going to risk sending an entire   amphibious lander full of Marines to land on Car  Island or to take Kashm or whatever insanity the  

Trump administration was spewing at that time. Um,  I would also add there is clearly a shakeup or a   breakdown going on at the highest levels of our  uniform military command structure. I bet there   is. and that it's not being widely reported. Um,  go figure. Uh, but I will I will say, you know,   everybody's focused on the reflecting pool in  Washington DC. Uh, I think it was Donahghue,   who resigned today, the head of um, uh, I think it  was, Ariccom, uh, he resigned today. Fred Cotcher,   who we spoke about previously when I was on the  show, I've noticed he's not being charged with   being a leaker. Uh, he's actually being allowed  to to to leave quietly, it looks like. Uh that to   me indicates that Kotcher was speaking for more  than himself. I think that he was speaking for   Dan Kaine when he leaked that that conversation  between Dan Kaine and Trump on the eve of the   war on February 27th. Um which indicates to me  there is there is a significant amount of uniform   military leaders who are looking around and  they're saying this ain't working. We're not being   heard. We're gfoing out of here. It does seem  like um that needs to happen. I don't understand   how the United States could be the US military  could be so totally and obviously unprepared   for modern drone warfare having watched it in  different parts of we helped create it well I'm   aware of that and I think we did create it really  and well yeah yeah so I mean the modern iteration  

of it in Afghanistan and I remember I remember  it very well uh it was October 2001 but anyway   the point is I don't I just don't get that all  these smart people, biggest budget on the planet,   biggest budget in history, and that you're not  prepared to beat the Houthies to keep the Red Sea   open. Like, that should occasion deep soularching,  punishment of the guilty, by the way. And it it   hasn't. And instead, we've got like a bunch of  aircraft carriers in production still. Like,   what is going on? Well, they're in production, not  being produced very quickly because our shipyards   are a sclerotic mess. Um, but uh well, what's  going on is the bubble, right? It it's it's   not only protects the people in DC that you and I  lived among for a long time, it not only protects   them from reality, it also protects them from  accountability. Yes. Um looking back on 9/11,   whatever people think may have happened. Um you  know, to cause 911, I certainly have my ideas.   Um the fact is nobody was held accountable for  the very blatant security failures except for   like you know Richard Clark who whether you like  him or not he did kind of warn us it was coming   and he was the one and you know I know you know he  was the one that got you know so but anyway um you   know nobody's really ever held accountable that's  the whole system in DC it is one of protecting you   know CYA a, you know, cover your A, you know,  that's that's that's the whole logic. And it's  

all political and they're going to protect each  other and close ranks. That's why after Iraq,   by the way, all of the generals, remember  Frank's the day that the fighting in Baghdad,   we got Baghdad in 03. The day that we did that,  he put in his resignation papers and him and his   top generals resigned on ma or retired on moss  to go write their memoirs because they knew the   insurgency was going to come and the whole thing  was going to go upside down and they didn't want   to be blamed. So that's your that's sort of  what you're dealing with in DC whether it's   the uniformed or non-uniformed people. And so  you know the only way this is going to change,   Tucker, is if Congress actually gets off its rear  end and starts holding the military accountable.   Why haven't there been committee hearings yet?  Where where is the people in Congress demanding   afteraction briefings, demanding accountability  for the very clear failures? I heard Seth Molton,   who I know is kind of a leftwing, you know, he's  kind of nutty, but Seth Molton to a guy I admire   the hell out of, Elbridge Kby back in March.  He really held Bridg's feet to the fire though,   not personally, but for the organization. Uh the  Pentagon's failure to account for the fact that we   were going to burn through all the munitions that  we went through. You know, we need more of that   and we're not getting it. And that's the sort of  thing that will only ever bring accountability. Uh   and they don't want to do it because fundamentally  everybody's somehow benefiting from the existing   system, right? And it's it's such a recognizable  syndrome where you're destroyed by flattery,   not criticism. It's the people who claim they  love you who encourage your worst impulses.  

It's the what they call in like AA world the  enablers. Yeah, you got a drinking problem,   but it's like it's not that bad. You know, let's  go get loaded. Those are the people who kill you.   And it's all these members of Congress and Fox  News flag pinw wearers who are like, "We've got   the greatest military in the world. The president  says that all the time." And it's like, yeah, it's   a great military. Great people. Amazing people,  especially in the ranks. Yeah. However, like they   need to be held to the highest standards. That's  why they're the greatest. And when you drop the   standards, they become less impressive. Like,  well, they become Jack Keane. I mean, you know,   listen to him on Fox and it's it's like listening  to so well. Yeah. you know, or or so say or your   friend Jesse Kelly who or Jesse Waters rather, uh  who is tweeting out all these insane things about   how much winning we're doing. And I wish that were  the case, but uh you know, North Korea wants their   propaganda back because this is um this is the  greatest strategic defeat of the United States,   I think, maybe ever. Thankfully, the casualties,  the US casualty rate was not in the many   thousands. That is a blessing. Yes. Um that's  also though because the way the war was fought   um it was mostly targeting our bases. So a lot  of our people thankfully were near hospitals and   a lot of our people were able to when they did  get wounded severely, they were able to receive   very top quality treatment either with military,  you know, assistance or the the locals had good  

hospitals they were able to get our people to and  they were treated in that very important golden   hour uh when one is injured and they were I mean  that is a blessing. Uh so in that way we can be   very thankful but ultimately at the strategic  level which our military leaders should be   worried about at the strategic level this is this  is the end of America's hegemony that's it there   those days are done right the Charles Crothammer's  beloved unipolar moment uh completely devastated   uh Pat Buchanan has proven right more and more  every day when he challenged Crothammer on that   in the 90s you remember that I'm sure better than  me um but Um, you know, ultimately where I think   this is going on the global level, Tucker, and  again, feel free to cut me off. Um, but where   I'm going with this is it's looking to me like  the transition from unfortunately US being sort   of the dominant global power uh to a multipolar  system in which really China is sort of the rising   dominant power. That's just been expedited. That's  been expedited. And you know, I keep hearing from   people in Trump's orbit that, well, really this  was 5D chess because we were going we collapsed   Venezuela and we took that offline for China and  we went after Iran which is another big energy   source for China and we took that offline and they  are going to be on their knees. Well, as it turned   out, like I said at the beginning, China was more  than wellprepared for this. In fact, I would argue   that the Chinese, the reason they voluntarily  divorced themselves from the global market and  

decided to rely solely on their very impressive  SPR, the strategic petroleum reserve, is because   it was a proof of concept for them. because I  think Beijing knows the next move by America,   if this is part of some grand bizarre crackpot  plan, um the the next move will be eventually to   go after the straight of Malaa and to try to cut  China off and and they are preparing themselves   for surviving that. America's 250th anniversary  is here and it presents a great opportunity to   consider why our national culture matters. Being  an American is not something to be ashamed of.   We should all be proud to live here. And the  same goes for being a Christian. This July 4th,   the Hallow app, which is the best prayer app ever,  is launching the American Heroes Challenge. It's a   13-day journey, and it takes listeners through the  lives of the people who shaped this country, but   whose stories are not in history textbooks because  they just don't fit. These stories are amazing.   Tales of Native Americans, the Declaration  of Independence, World War I, even 9/11.   These stories tie together history and faith  that will affirm your faith. It's not a feel-good   history lesson. It's a July 4th invitation to  look at people who lived with courage and to   encourage us to strive to do the same. Download  Hallow free for 3 months at hallow.com/tucker and   do this challenge. We loved it. You will love it.  I don't think there's any appetite for that. And   um this is not 5D chess. This is drunk. you know,  this is onedimensional checkers. Exactly. Not  

even. It doesn't rise to the level. Um, and I say  that with with sadness. Um, I will say I think I   don't think I know that the administration has  gotten religion on this. They understand it. The   consequences of proceeding are so severe that  not only are they committed to ending this, but   they are turning against the president himself is  turning against the people who advocated for it. I   guess this was all inevitable, wasn't it? And so  the enemies, we'll see how deep that goes. Well,   I don't know. As of this morning, at least in  this country, that's my next question to you.   What do you do actually to restrain Israel, which  is the impediment to settling this, but it I would   say domestically Trump has totally soured on Mark  Levin, not guessing. He has on Mark. I don't know   how you were ever sweet on Mark. Well, I totally  I the whole thing was was like a deranged episode.   It was like that, you know, weird affair  you had. Like, you know what I mean? Like,   I can't believe I ever found that girl attractive.  Like, what was I thinking? And and the takeaway   from those experiences in the life of a man is  don't always trust your own judgment. Like, I   have the capacity to go crazy. But anyway, so I do  think they or he, again, I don't think I know is   now like actively angry at the people who helped  convince him to do this. But that's not the same   as getting this done, getting theou hammered out  and translated into an enduring peace. What does   the administration need to do to achieve that, do  you think? Well, the first thing is Trump needs to   stop having Natalie text out these insane things  about how he's going to kill uh the negotiators.  

I mean, that would be the first, you know, just  just putting going for the low hanging fruit here.   um you know so first that then we then we would  probably say um Mr. President, you really need to   um use this as an opportunity, a teachable  moment as Obama used to lecture us about a   real teachable moment here. We can really use  this as a window to actually implement the very   brilliant and I know you know that I supported  this national security strategy memo from last   year which said we weren't going to do any of this  and then nobody read it but it was great. Nobody   read it. So Mark Levvin did his siren song from  Fox News and dragged us in. But but I would say   that this is a real opportunity because the  Arabs don't want us around anymore. I mean,   they want to do business with us. Um which is  great. That's fine. Uh because I don't know if I   want to do business with us after this chat show.  Um but they want to do business with us still for   the most part. So this is a real opportunity for  us to create sort of a long-term exit strategy   from the whole geopolitical quicksand. Let the  locals figure out their own mess. They know the   neighborhood better. They'll figure it out. By the  way, big brother always being around for Israel is   the absolute worst thing for Israel because it  creates this sort of we talk about moral hazard   when we talk about like bailouts. Well, in this  case, it's moral hazard in a geopolitical sense   because the Israelis think we're always going  to bail them out. So, and we can't do that  

anymore because I just told you we depleted  all of our systems as well. Oh, by the way,   I meant to tell you this fun fact. I was told not  long ago by a little birdie uh that actually the   Israelis were stunned by how many of our defensive  munitions we expended on their behalf because the   Israelis didn't expend anywhere near as many of  their critical defensive munitions defending their   own cities and their own country. They were they  were they couldn't believe the Americans even let   the Iranians attack American territory or American  facilities in the Arab states. uh a and they let   we sent all that stuff to Israel. So the Israelis  didn't even use anywhere near the level of You   know why? Cuz we're all my cuckabe. It's like  our leaders love Israel more than Israel loves   itself. It's like it reminds you in the George  Floyd thing. I'll never forget video of like some   liberal white lady washing the feet of a black  woman. And the black woman was like, "Why are   you washing why you washing my feet?" Like this is  weird. The black lady's the white liberal like I   love you. You're holy. And the black lady's like,  "Oh, you're freaking me out." Yeah, that's right.   That's right. That's right. And that's exactly  what we're seeing here play out. So, the first   thing I would say is this is an opportunity to  pull out and never go back. Pull out right now.   Never go back. In the process, get on the phone  with Bby and explain to him a multi-point plan   for stopping sending the aid uh that we've been  sending. Uh we are not going to engage anymore   in intelligence sharing at any level that we've  been doing. We are not. By the way, there's I I  

can reference a bunch of former CIA guys and  one former US Army intelligence officer that   I know who told me that when he was in Iraq, he  was charged with basically dealing with a certain   area of the Sunni triangle in ' 0405. and he said  that basically, hey, um the there was a group of   MSAD operating here and they were interrupting  and interfering with our missions to try to stop   al-Qaeda in Iraq from doing whatever the hell they  were doing. And and I said, you know, I asked him,   I go, what what do you think was the reason?  He goes, I'm not even going to get into that   because I don't want to lose my pension. So,  um, you know, we're we're dealing with not,   you know, a nonalliy ally fighting a nonwar war  with a non ceasefire ceasefire right now. So,   it's all very sort of, you know, nihilistic.  But, wait, can I just ask you to back up for   a sec and and explain a little more deeply what  you think that comment meant about operating in   Iraq and the Sunni triangle? I think that they  had people on the ground and we, you know,   this is me now just sort of speculating based on  that. This is not Okay. Um, so my speculation is   this was a few years before ISIS really got I mean  before the the Syrian civil war really got going,   but remember there was a whole buildup before it  even popped off. Um, and one of those buildups was   we let out all of the al-Qaeda and Iraq fighters  from Camp Buouah, which was a very nasty facility,  

uh, along the Syrian border. Uh, all those guys  ended up going back into Syria and they became   basically the nucleus of El-Nusra front and ISIS  and that basically was our shock troops against   Assad. And we armed them with the arms that  we got from Gaddafi through Benghazi, which   is what Benghazi really was about. And the Turks  were running. It was the rat line. Yeah. So, so   basically I can't help but to wonder if the reason  MSAD or Israeli intelligence was on the ground in   that particular area of the country of Iraq during  that time is because they were doing something to   try to shape uh what would eventually become sort  of the nucleus of the attack on Assad. Because we   know that seven nations in seven years or whatever  the quote from General Clark was, right? We know   there was some grand plan originally that the  neoconservatives, Paul Wolfitz and the clean   break memo guys all concocted that would have seen  us going after. I mean, I I was told by somebody   who was there that in 2004, John Bolton and Dick  Cheney were trying to convince Bush to bomb Assad   in ' 04. Um, so I think this is somehow that story  is somehow related to what because we know there   was a buildup before suddenly all these things  just popped off in Syria. Uh, there was part of   a plan. Uh, William Van Wagon and talks a lot  about things like this in his wonderful book,   Creative Chaos. Highly recommend your audience.  Uh, William's a friend of mine and he's in the  

region actually and very insightful guy. Um, but  he, you know, there there's a lot of people that   can get deeper into this than I will, but but  fundamentally I do believe that that there there   was an Israeli, however small footprint, notably  in Western Iraq, and they were doing something, I   think, probably related to what we ultimately saw  play out in Syria. That would not surprise me. And   that would explain why there was all of a sudden  this overnight consensus in the US Congress,   throughout Washington really, that quote, Assad  must go. and a guy who had been celebrated in   the western press. Nancy Pelosi shook hands with  him, remember? Of course. And why wouldn't you?   He was a religious minority in his own country  who protected religious minorities including an   opthalmologist too. No dummy Lond London trained  with a very attractive multilingual wife and like   the whole thing. It's the Leavant. It's like  a moderate you know uh thing but protected the   ancient Christian communities of Syria. And then  all of a sudden in one day it was like no no the   real problem is Assad and we need to like blame  a fake attack on him and all this. There's also   a Russia thing that we we we were and I I talked  about this in my last book but there was I know   that there was a group of shall we say thinkers  um in DC who had been pushing this idea that we   needed to roll back Russia's warm water ports  after the Cold War. One of those smaller ports   but very important for their navy was Tartis.  And the idea was you're going to have to get  

rid of Assad to push back the Russian influence  there. So there was also some connectivity there   uh with some of these these globalists after the  Cold War. So you had that sort of weird fusion of   Islamist terrorists, anti-Russia stuff, Israel,  Turkey. this kind of weird, you know, polyglot   ad mixture of imp of of ponderables, but there  they were of all the the most dedicated opponents   of civilization finding each other of America,  ironically. America, right? No, I know. It doesn't   surprise me at all. So, you said at the outset  that you're skeptical that thisou and negotiations   ongoing in Switzerland will lead to a durable  peace. Why? Yeah. Well, I think that the three   parties are still not quite on the same page.  Like I said, I think if Trump, the Trump team,   and the Iranians kind of could do their own thing,  I think probably they might be able to get a more   durable deal. I think how this is going to play  out is the model is going to be very similar to   the tariffs where it was sort of like every 45  days we're just going to keep extending. We'll   keep extending. uh you know for some of these  these these things with the tariffs um I just   don't think that I think that the Americans know  that if they really do walk away from the straight   hormuz if you look at what's going on right  now and the straight hormuz has really become   the center of gravity here if you look at what's  going on in the straight of hormuz Marco Rubio   and his gang are all saying you know it's not even  possible nobody would ever toll these the straight  

of hormuz well the Turks toll the the Turkish  straits. So I mean that alone is, you know,   sort of ridiculous when you hear that the Montro  Convention works very well and has since 1936,   there's no reason why we couldn't figure out some  new way to make everybody happy there. Anyway,   I think as long as you have those voices who  are in the presidency uh uh these crazy ideas,   I just think that you're always going to have sort  of this tension where I think that the president   will always be one foot in, one foot out, and  that's that's not good. We we don't need that   right now. We need to just get out. Um so I'm just  very skeptical. I am a natural skeptic though,   Tucker. I should say I I'm I'm skeptical of many  things. Me too. Um, so that's just my background,   but but I I also think the Israelis are the real  wild card. And the fact of the matter is, look,   they've got they've got a cluster of dolphin class  submarines with nuclear tip cruise missiles likely   sitting off the coast of Iran right now.  Um, you know, what's to stop them? I mean,   you're not wrong to bring up that possibility. If  they really think that this whole thing's going   to go pear-shaped, what's to stop them from just  saying, "F this. We're gonna try to do it our way,   the way we wanted to do. So that this is why  I'm there's just so many different competing   interests. The Iranians are never going to let  go of the straight of Hormuz and I don't know if   Trump is going to be okay with that. They are  going to start tolling. So the the the the 60   days is what we have. By the way, the Iranians  have the first 30 days to reopen the straight  

fully. Do you really think the Iranians are going  to reopen everything immediately? No. They're   gonna they're gonna they're going to drag this  out because they want to make sure the Americans   are going to hold up their end of the bargain and  we never have so far. So, the Iranians are going   to drag this out. That's going to then get us to  day 31. We will be reaching bottom barrel uh of   our strategic petroleum reserve. Uh Gary Voggler  explained this to me on my Twitter page recently   and he's an oil expert that but he explained that  salt caverns where our oil is held basically the   the oil is tainted there and the deeper you go  into those things the more tainted and the less   usable the oil becomes. Uh so basically they're  saying officially the the EIA says that we have   340 million barrels remaining now. I think it's  probably of usable closer to a hundred million   uh barrels. And if we can't get the straight  reopened and the Arab production back up and   running, which every expert I've spoken to says  it's going to take weeks, probably months under   the best conditions to restart Arab production  for a variety of reasons. Um that means that   the Iranians not letting up on the straight of  Hormuz fully right now. that is going to create   shortages, complications, uh, here in the United  States because we're hitting bottom barrel. Uh,   and so this is going to compound and create, I  think, greater political pressure on Trump. Uh,   and I think that that's that's going to cause a  lot of problems for maybe not getting a full-time  

resolution. But maybe I'm wrong. I'm happy to be  because I would love to see us just done with this   whole thing. it it after the midterms and when  you know there's a new political reality that's   measurable because there will be at that point  um yeah I mean that's the upside of elections   whether they're real or not they establish a  new baseline of where we are and what voters   want right no it's true or and even if they're  not real I can guarantee you they're not going   to rig it in favor of Trump I don't know if  Trump's deluded himself into thinking that but   uh it will not happen I've lost track of what  I think but anyway here's the point will dismir I I don't see the pre March status quo politically  surviving where 95% of members of Congress   whatever over 90% of members take money from Apac  or some version of Apac where every member of   Congress says you know unthinkingly I support  Israel they're our greatest ally. Like I just   don't see that but maybe I'm wrong but I just  don't see how that survives this moment. I I I   can't imagine it surv I think this is sort of the  height of it and it's gonna all now be downhill   because even if you take all of the boomers  and this is a generational thing. You take   all the boomers in both parties who support  the sort of the status quo. Let's face it,   they're not going to be around much longer. I  mean, I hate to speak that way, but inevitably   soon it's going to change. And the next generation  is much more skeptical of Israel. And you know,  

some of them are some of them are anti-semmites.  There's no doubt there are definitely anti-semites   out there, but most of the people who are  skeptical are skeptical with good reason. They're   skeptical because they recognize there is a  delineation between American interests and Israel   interests. And when they eventually rise to power  in Congress, this new generation in both parties,   I think I think there's a reason that Israel is  trying to basically permanently integrate aid   uh in this current National Defense Authorization  Act and the current Intelligence Authorization   Act. I think it's because their their allies  know that in another 10 years it's it's a totally   different ballgame for Israel. They're not going  to be getting the kind of support. I don't know   that it could take 10 years. I don't know about 10  years, but I got to So Tom Cotton is the driving   force behind the idea of giving up the sovereignty  of our intel agencies to a foreign country. He's   also, as far as I know, the chairman of the Senate  Intelligence Committee and sitting US senator.   That's treason. Obviously, I don't know his  motive for that. I have some guesses. But can that   continue? Can you have the chairman of the Senate  Intel Committee demanding that we have mandatory   intel sharing with a foreign pretty obviously  hostile country? That's b That's bonkers. It is   bonkers, but it's just crazy enough. Uh where you  know the world we're living in, Tucker. Um yeah,   Tom Tom Cotton uh he he's clearly not speaking for  himself and um you know, so I think that he will  

continue to push this as long as he's in that  position. Um and I think he will continue to be   in that position until Pete Hexth is gone from  the Pentagon because I think the ultimate plan   is to put him in or at least it was to replace  switch out Pete with uh with Tom Cotton. Um,   that's not an upgrade. I'm sorry. No, no, maybe  an IQ upgrade, but it's not. Maybe he washes his   hands more. Uh, but uh um but I think that Cotton  will continue to push this. And do I think that   it will go forward? You know, they already passed  the Senate version. It's now got to go through the   next next round. Um this is why they're doing this  now is because this is the last shot for them. And   I think that Tom Cotton's motivations are not his  own. And I don't want to get too deep into that,   but I think that Tom Yeah. Yeah. And I think that  there are many more. And I think the fact that he   and Graham and all these other people, I think  the fact that they continue to be so publicly,   you know, supportive of these moves indicates  still how much maneuvering room they still have   right now. I also think it's interesting though  um you know cotton has been really pushing hard   to basically cancel or end the DNI the director of  national intelligence that whole office and this   is something that after 9/11 a lot of intelligence  professionals looked back and said look we don't   need the DNI it gets in the way blah blah blah  Republicans and Democrats both never wanted to   get rid of it now he wants to get rid of it I  think it's just because he's worried another  

Tulsi might one day be put in permanently to  the DNI who might actually uncover a lot of   the nefariousness that our our people have been  up to in the intelligence world. And so he wants   to to neuter that capability and return it to the  director of central intelligence and not just our   people but people with whom we are quote allied.  I mean, it was Tom Cotton who expressed, I mean,   this is a fact. He's denied it, but it's it's  a fact that shortly into this administration,   he expressed concern that the Kennedy fi that all  the JFK files would be released. Well, that's not,   you know, he doesn't care. It's an act of  Congress that Well, right. It's And later, I mean,   it was an executive order, but like Tom Cotton's  like, "Whoa, whoa, why are we doing that?" And   that's of course to cover for a foreign country.  So, that's like crazy behavior. Well, it is. Look,   it is it's treasonous and he's not the only one.  And also, I think that this War Powers vote,   I think from what, a day or two ago, uh, in the  Senate, I actually don't think that was anybody   standing on principle. Um, I think what that was  was a quiet message to Trump. Uh, you remember in   the last week, Trump pulled Clayton's nomination  for DNI. Clayton is the guy, you know, that   Tom Cotton, Lindsey Graham, and all the neocons  wanted to replace Tulsi. And for whatever reason,   Trump nominated him, probably because Susie  nominated him. Um, and he now has Bill Py who,  

whatever people think of him, he is going to  just salute and gut all of these people, uh,   without because he doesn't know anything that's  going on in DNI. He's a he's a real estate guy,   but he's gonna go in there, he's going to  kill everything. uh he's going to drain   that particular part of the swamp. A and then also  Trump is trying to get the SAVE Act tied and FISA   um reauthorization tied to all of this. I think  the War Powers Act was the Senate telling Trump we   can get you. Do not interfere with us. And I think  that wing of the Senate is the neoconservative   wing that wants FISA reauthorized that wants to  see the SAVE Act not passed. And ultimately, I   don't think these things are going to get passed,  by the way, and wants to see someone like, well,   I think it's Clayton um from the SEC or from the  Southern District of New York. Um they they want   to see that guy in there. Uh and of course, that  guy, for your audience, may not know this, but he   was the guy that effed up supposedly by accident  the Epstein file release. Yep. Or last year. So,   we have another Epstein class uh being promoted  by the Neocons as the new DNI. They prefer him   over Bill Py. So it's the agenda is more spying on  Americans. There is no Fourth Amendment. No voter   ID because why would we want secure elections  then like voters would have a say and energy   prices that drive people into poverty and like all  of this seems aimed at the American population.   Certainly these are decisions made without  reference to what people want. No one wants any  

of this. You're sounding a lot like my dear friend  Michael Jan who's been saying this is actually a   war on the American people don't obvious and  don't forget um the straight of hormuse closure   onethird of the world's agricultural base supplies  that's cut off and we are in the dead of planting   season and what's going to happen now here in  the United States as well as elsewhere it's   going to be worse elsewhere but it's going  to be bad here we in the United States here   uh not this year probably because we're still  running off reserves from last planting season,   but next year the delayed impact of not having  planted enough because we didn't have enough   ura uh fertilizer. We're going to be talking about  severe shortages in the agricultural sector of   baseline goods that every American needs. You've  also now again channeling Michael here, uh the   screw worm, which is a highly devastating to crops  and livestock um parasite. We had gotten it out of   North America about a century ago. Now, in the  last three years, it's popped up again because   it's supposedly it was brought up with all the  illegal immigration. They they basically brought   in a bunch of by accident supposedly contaminants  and whatnot and the screworm larvae was one of   them. And now they're finding them in Texas  and the cattle there. And that's very bad. Um,   so in fact, they found some in Florida, Central  Florida, uh, recently as well. The point is is   that um all the stuff that we as Americans take  for granted. Abundant food, affordable groceries,  

energy, all of this stuff is being denied to  us on some level. It's being complicated our   ability to get that. And it's being done because  of policy. It's not being done because there's   an actual shortage. No, it's being done because  of policy, either war or whatever. But remember,   the war was a war of choice. It's not like the  Iranians attacked us. So all of this is certainly   you start getting into a very dark place. Uh  Tucker and I know I've certainly gone down. Don't   don't let my sunny disposition confuse you. I I've  certainly gone down. I'm very blessed. I have a   beautiful family and and so I'm I'm very happy in  my personal life. But but uh you know I talk about   some pretty bleak things and you can start to see  the darkness in human hearts and particularly our   leaders. Particularly our leaders. Yeah. I  have some thoughts which I'm not going to   express because that's dark enough but I I know I  hope you will come back and it's just it's great   uh anytime get your analysis. I learned I just  learned a lot. So Brandon, thank you. Great to   see you. God bless. God bless. That's it for  us. We'll see you next Wednesday. Thank you.

JD Vance’s Warning to Israel, the Last Desperate Move of Israel-Firsters & Iran’s Growing Strength

Summary