Harvard Professor Warns of the Next Phase of Trump’s War: We’re Approaching a Dangerous World

First of all, thanks so much for doing First of all, thanks so much for doing this. this. this. >> Nice to be here. >> Nice to be here. >> Nice to be here. >> So, let's start at the end, the >> So, let's start at the end, the >> So, let's start at the end, the anticipated end. When and if the United anticipated end. When and if the United anticipated end. When and if the United States resolves its role in these two States resolves its role in these two States resolves its role in these two wars against Russia and against Iran, wars against Russia and against Iran, wars against Russia and against Iran, what does the world look like, do you what does the world look like, do you what does the world look like, do you think? I think? I think? I >> I think it looks like a a substantially >> I think it looks like a a substantially >> I think it looks like a a substantially more dangerous world actually than we've more dangerous world actually than we've more dangerous world actually than we've seen for say most of seen for say most of seen for say most of >> after the wars. >> after the wars. >> after the wars. >> Yeah, after the worse. Well, it's going >> Yeah, after the worse. Well, it's going >> Yeah, after the worse. Well, it's going to leave the world in a in a I think a to leave the world in a in a I think a to leave the world in a in a I think a more precarious condition and for sort more precarious condition and for sort more precarious condition and for sort of larger, more enduring reasons than of larger, more enduring reasons than of larger, more enduring reasons than just these conflicts. I mean, the just these conflicts. I mean, the just these conflicts. I mean, the relationship with Russia is not going to relationship with Russia is not going to relationship with Russia is not going to improve for a while, even if the war improve for a while, even if the war improve for a while, even if the war formally comes to an end. There's lots formally comes to an end. There's lots formally comes to an end. There's lots of suspiciousness on both sides now. So, of suspiciousness on both sides now. So, of suspiciousness on both sides now. So, that's going to be a problem. Uh, China that's going to be a problem. Uh, China that's going to be a problem. Uh, China is going to continue to improve its is going to continue to improve its is going to continue to improve its military power. It's going to continue military power. It's going to continue military power. It's going to continue to grow economically. it's going to to grow economically. it's going to to grow economically. it's going to continue to challenge uh the United continue to challenge uh the United continue to challenge uh the United States and others for influence around States and others for influence around States and others for influence around the world. So that's going to be a the world. So that's going to be a the world. So that's going to be a source of tension. Um we have I think in source of tension. Um we have I think in source of tension. Um we have I think in the world today you're seeing other the world today you're seeing other the world today you're seeing other powers, you know, lesser powers being powers, you know, lesser powers being powers, you know, lesser powers being more active uh and not always more active uh and not always more active uh and not always constructively. Think of the role that constructively. Think of the role that constructively. Think of the role that the UAE has played in the civil war in the UAE has played in the civil war in the UAE has played in the civil war in Sudan. Um so they're involved in fueling Sudan. Um so they're involved in fueling Sudan. Um so they're involved in fueling conflicts in a variety of other places.

conflicts in a variety of other places. conflicts in a variety of other places. So you're going to see a tripolar world, So you're going to see a tripolar world, So you're going to see a tripolar world, Russia, China, the United States as the Russia, China, the United States as the Russia, China, the United States as the three main powers um with some three main powers um with some three main powers um with some unresolved tensions among them. Uh unresolved tensions among them. Uh unresolved tensions among them. Uh continued I think concerns about what's continued I think concerns about what's continued I think concerns about what's going on in Asia and what China's going on in Asia and what China's going on in Asia and what China's ambitions uh might be there and in a ambitions uh might be there and in a ambitions uh might be there and in a situation where uh no one really trusts situation where uh no one really trusts situation where uh no one really trusts America's judgment anymore. Uh and America's judgment anymore. Uh and America's judgment anymore. Uh and that's I think a artifact of the war that's I think a artifact of the war that's I think a artifact of the war especially the war in Iran. Let me point especially the war in Iran. Let me point especially the war in Iran. Let me point to one other thing that I think people to one other thing that I think people to one other thing that I think people sometimes forget about and that that's sometimes forget about and that that's sometimes forget about and that that's that we've seen I think a pretty that we've seen I think a pretty that we've seen I think a pretty dramatic erosion in the normative dramatic erosion in the normative dramatic erosion in the normative environment surrounding the use of environment surrounding the use of environment surrounding the use of force. Um and I you know I'm a good force. Um and I you know I'm a good force. Um and I you know I'm a good realist so I don't think norms in realist so I don't think norms in realist so I don't think norms in international law are everything but international law are everything but international law are everything but they're not irrelevant. Um so one of the they're not irrelevant. Um so one of the they're not irrelevant. Um so one of the things we've seen is essentially a things we've seen is essentially a things we've seen is essentially a collapse of the norm against collapse of the norm against collapse of the norm against assassination. Uh you know for a long assassination. Uh you know for a long assassination. Uh you know for a long time in world history governments didn't time in world history governments didn't time in world history governments didn't try to assassinate each other. Leaders try to assassinate each other. Leaders try to assassinate each other. Leaders of other countries didn't try and kill of other countries didn't try and kill of other countries didn't try and kill each other uh in conflicts. Uh this was each other uh in conflicts. Uh this was each other uh in conflicts. Uh this was a common practice 500 years ago and it a common practice 500 years ago and it a common practice 500 years ago and it gradually fell from favor and a norm uh gradually fell from favor and a norm uh gradually fell from favor and a norm uh emerged against it. You can understand emerged against it. You can understand emerged against it. You can understand why you it was in everybody's why you it was in everybody's why you it was in everybody's self-interest. if you were a king, if self-interest. if you were a king, if self-interest. if you were a king, if you were a prime minister, not to be you were a prime minister, not to be you were a prime minister, not to be trying to kill each other. Moreover, trying to kill each other. Moreover, trying to kill each other. Moreover, great powers like this norm because it great powers like this norm because it great powers like this norm because it meant that conflicts would be decided on

meant that conflicts would be decided on meant that conflicts would be decided on the battlefield where they had all the the battlefield where they had all the the battlefield where they had all the soldiers and all the wealth and could soldiers and all the wealth and could soldiers and all the wealth and could could win. Assassination is a tool of could win. Assassination is a tool of could win. Assassination is a tool of weaker powers, right? weaker powers, right? weaker powers, right? >> Asymmetrical, of course, >> Asymmetrical, of course, >> Asymmetrical, of course, >> right? Um and beginning at the end of >> right? Um and beginning at the end of >> right? Um and beginning at the end of World War II when the allies began to World War II when the allies began to World War II when the allies began to hold leaders accountable, Nuremberg hold leaders accountable, Nuremberg hold leaders accountable, Nuremberg trials, the Tokyo Warheims trials, this trials, the Tokyo Warheims trials, this trials, the Tokyo Warheims trials, this idea that what you did as a statesman idea that what you did as a statesman idea that what you did as a statesman was sort of separate uh began to erode. was sort of separate uh began to erode. was sort of separate uh began to erode. Once that began to erode, then going Once that began to erode, then going Once that began to erode, then going after a leader, going after Muar after a leader, going after Muar after a leader, going after Muar Gaddafi, going after Saddam Hussein Gaddafi, going after Saddam Hussein Gaddafi, going after Saddam Hussein begins to look morally preferable. Why begins to look morally preferable. Why begins to look morally preferable. Why not just take out this troublesome not just take out this troublesome not just take out this troublesome leader as opposed to leader as opposed to leader as opposed to >> spare the population? >> spare the population? >> spare the population? >> Yeah, spare the population. You could >> Yeah, spare the population. You could >> Yeah, spare the population. You could make this argument. make this argument. make this argument. >> Of course, this is a very dangerous road >> Of course, this is a very dangerous road >> Of course, this is a very dangerous road to go down because now it's becoming a to go down because now it's becoming a to go down because now it's becoming a much more common practice. Look at what much more common practice. Look at what much more common practice. Look at what the United States and Israel do at the the United States and Israel do at the the United States and Israel do at the beginning of the Iran war. They take out beginning of the Iran war. They take out beginning of the Iran war. They take out all of Iran's senior leaders. There's at all of Iran's senior leaders. There's at all of Iran's senior leaders. There's at least two problems here. First of all, least two problems here. First of all, least two problems here. First of all, you don't know who's going to replace you don't know who's going to replace you don't know who's going to replace them. And of course, we're now having them. And of course, we're now having them. And of course, we're now having trouble with a more hardline faction in trouble with a more hardline faction in trouble with a more hardline faction in Iran. It also erodess any possibility of Iran. It also erodess any possibility of Iran. It also erodess any possibility of trust. I mean, how can you sit down and trust. I mean, how can you sit down and trust. I mean, how can you sit down and negotiate a peace agreement with a negotiate a peace agreement with a negotiate a peace agreement with a regime that has killed your senior regime that has killed your senior regime that has killed your senior leaders and might do something again leaders and might do something again leaders and might do something again subsequently? And then finally, as that subsequently? And then finally, as that subsequently? And then finally, as that norm begins to erode, others are going norm begins to erode, others are going norm begins to erode, others are going to use it too. Others will start using to use it too. Others will start using to use it too. Others will start using similar tactics. and leaders, including similar tactics. and leaders, including

similar tactics. and leaders, including American presidents, are going to have American presidents, are going to have American presidents, are going to have to worry much more about this than they to worry much more about this than they to worry much more about this than they did uh necessarily in the past. All did uh necessarily in the past. All did uh necessarily in the past. All right, you put all of those things right, you put all of those things right, you put all of those things together, uh continued great power together, uh continued great power together, uh continued great power competition, um eroding norms against competition, um eroding norms against competition, um eroding norms against the use of violence in a variety of the use of violence in a variety of the use of violence in a variety of different ways, and I think you end up different ways, and I think you end up different ways, and I think you end up with a much more dangerous world. And I with a much more dangerous world. And I with a much more dangerous world. And I think unfortunately the world agrees think unfortunately the world agrees think unfortunately the world agrees with that because if you look at the with that because if you look at the with that because if you look at the last 20 years or so the in in constant last 20 years or so the in in constant last 20 years or so the in in constant dollars defense expenditures have dollars defense expenditures have dollars defense expenditures have basically doubled in in the world over basically doubled in in the world over basically doubled in in the world over the last 20 years because the last 20 years because the last 20 years because >> not just in the US >> not just in the US >> not just in the US >> not just in the United States you see >> not just in the United States you see >> not just in the United States you see this happening in Asia you see this this happening in Asia you see this this happening in Asia you see this happening in uh in Europe now uh happening in uh in Europe now uh happening in uh in Europe now uh belatedly but finally happening and I I belatedly but finally happening and I I belatedly but finally happening and I I think that's all evidence that around think that's all evidence that around think that's all evidence that around the world people anticipate a much less the world people anticipate a much less the world people anticipate a much less secure environment than the one we've secure environment than the one we've secure environment than the one we've had had had >> not what we were promised. We were >> not what we were promised. We were >> not what we were promised. We were promised by certain factions in American promised by certain factions in American promised by certain factions in American politics politics politics peace based on global trade. Globalizing peace based on global trade. Globalizing peace based on global trade. Globalizing the economy was supposed to guarantee the economy was supposed to guarantee the economy was supposed to guarantee stability because you don't go to war stability because you don't go to war stability because you don't go to war with your trading partners. That's what with your trading partners. That's what with your trading partners. That's what they told us, they told us, they told us, >> right? And and I should have mentioned >> right? And and I should have mentioned >> right? And and I should have mentioned that. I mean, the other thing that's that. I mean, the other thing that's that. I mean, the other thing that's happening is we're seeing the onset of happening is we're seeing the onset of happening is we're seeing the onset of not an end to global trade, not even a not an end to global trade, not even a not an end to global trade, not even a complete end to globalization, but complete end to globalization, but complete end to globalization, but certainly a retreat back from it.

certainly a retreat back from it. certainly a retreat back from it. raising of trade barriers, uh, increased raising of trade barriers, uh, increased raising of trade barriers, uh, increased protectionism, particularly in, uh, high protectionism, particularly in, uh, high protectionism, particularly in, uh, high technology, things like that. And I technology, things like that. And I technology, things like that. And I don't think that's going to go away, uh, don't think that's going to go away, uh, don't think that's going to go away, uh, anytime soon. You're going to see a a anytime soon. You're going to see a a anytime soon. You're going to see a a much more competitive uh, economic much more competitive uh, economic much more competitive uh, economic environment. Um, and what um, has been environment. Um, and what um, has been environment. Um, and what um, has been called weaponized interdependence, called weaponized interdependence, called weaponized interdependence, people trying to gain political people trying to gain political people trying to gain political advantage by using others advantage by using others advantage by using others vulnerabilities or others dependence. vulnerabilities or others dependence. vulnerabilities or others dependence. The way the United States has weaponized The way the United States has weaponized The way the United States has weaponized the role of the dollar in the the role of the dollar in the the role of the dollar in the international financial system imposing international financial system imposing international financial system imposing sanctions, the way Iran has weaponized sanctions, the way Iran has weaponized sanctions, the way Iran has weaponized everyone's dependence on the straight of everyone's dependence on the straight of everyone's dependence on the straight of form. Yes. form. Yes. form. Yes. >> To advance political agenda. So all of >> To advance political agenda. So all of >> To advance political agenda. So all of that's going to contribute. that's going to contribute. that's going to contribute. >> But can we can we put those cliches to >> But can we can we put those cliches to >> But can we can we put those cliches to bed that you know democracies don't go bed that you know democracies don't go bed that you know democracies don't go to war against their neighbors that to war against their neighbors that to war against their neighbors that trading partners don't have wars? Like trading partners don't have wars? Like trading partners don't have wars? Like that's just not none of that's true. that's just not none of that's true. that's just not none of that's true. >> Well, you want to be careful here. Um, >> Well, you want to be careful here. Um, >> Well, you want to be careful here. Um, there is some evidence that democracies there is some evidence that democracies there is some evidence that democracies are less likely to fight each other.

are less likely to fight each other. are less likely to fight each other. It's it's soft evidence. I don't I It's it's soft evidence. I don't I It's it's soft evidence. I don't I wouldn't want to base my entire foreign wouldn't want to base my entire foreign wouldn't want to base my entire foreign policy around that assumption, but you policy around that assumption, but you policy around that assumption, but you don't want to completely throw it out. don't want to completely throw it out. don't want to completely throw it out. Um, and secondly, the the again big Um, and secondly, the the again big Um, and secondly, the the again big macro studies will show you that in fact macro studies will show you that in fact macro studies will show you that in fact high levels of economic interdependence high levels of economic interdependence high levels of economic interdependence do make international conflict between do make international conflict between do make international conflict between the partners less likely. that is the partners less likely. that is the partners less likely. that is there's a statistical relationship there's a statistical relationship there's a statistical relationship there. It is not however an absolute there. It is not however an absolute there. It is not however an absolute guarantee. The fact that you have an guarantee. The fact that you have an guarantee. The fact that you have an extensive economic relationship with extensive economic relationship with extensive economic relationship with someone doesn't mean you won't fight someone doesn't mean you won't fight someone doesn't mean you won't fight them. It just makes it somewhat less them. It just makes it somewhat less them. It just makes it somewhat less likely. likely. likely. Also, you can make the reverse argument Also, you can make the reverse argument Also, you can make the reverse argument arguably even more powerfully. arguably even more powerfully. arguably even more powerfully. It's not so much that interdependence It's not so much that interdependence It's not so much that interdependence causes peace. It's rather that peace causes peace. It's rather that peace causes peace. It's rather that peace causes interdependence. causes interdependence. causes interdependence. >> Yes. Exactly. >> Yes. Exactly. >> Yes. Exactly. >> When you have a stable political >> When you have a stable political >> When you have a stable political environment, environment, environment, >> Thank you for saying that. No, when you >> Thank you for saying that. No, when you >> Thank you for saying that. No, when you have a stable political environment, have a stable political environment, have a stable political environment, people don't think war is very likely people don't think war is very likely people don't think war is very likely than they're willing to trade with than they're willing to trade with than they're willing to trade with someone else much more readily. They're someone else much more readily. They're someone else much more readily. They're willing to invest in a foreign economy willing to invest in a foreign economy willing to invest in a foreign economy without worrying that somehow that's without worrying that somehow that's without worrying that somehow that's going to get nationalized or seized going to get nationalized or seized going to get nationalized or seized because a conflict emerges. And once because a conflict emerges. And once because a conflict emerges. And once people begin to see that conflict is people begin to see that conflict is people begin to see that conflict is likely, they quite and I'm talking to likely, they quite and I'm talking to likely, they quite and I'm talking to investors here, they quite naturally investors here, they quite naturally investors here, they quite naturally begin to pull back and governments begin to pull back and governments begin to pull back and governments encourage them to pull back because encourage them to pull back because encourage them to pull back because they're worried about what the balance they're worried about what the balance they're worried about what the balance of power is going to be, etc. So the of power is going to be, etc. So the of power is going to be, etc. So the optimism of the say early 1990s that optimism of the say early 1990s that optimism of the say early 1990s that we're going to head into this wonderful we're going to head into this wonderful we're going to head into this wonderful uh you know Fukuyama and Freriedman uh you know Fukuyama and Freriedman uh you know Fukuyama and Freriedman world of globalization, peace and

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free quote today at ethos.com/tucker. free quote today at ethos.com/tucker. ethos thos.com/tucker. ethos thos.com/tucker. ethos thos.com/tucker. Application times and rates obviously Application times and rates obviously Application times and rates obviously vary, but we think they're pretty darn vary, but we think they're pretty darn vary, but we think they're pretty darn good. Why have American policy makers good. Why have American policy makers good. Why have American policy makers been unwilling to be realistic about the been unwilling to be realistic about the been unwilling to be realistic about the rise of China? rise of China? rise of China? It seems like everything in the last 20 It seems like everything in the last 20 It seems like everything in the last 20 years, the subtext of a lot of it is years, the subtext of a lot of it is years, the subtext of a lot of it is like a total unwillingness to deal with like a total unwillingness to deal with like a total unwillingness to deal with the fact that we're not in charge of the fact that we're not in charge of the fact that we're not in charge of everything because China has this everything because China has this everything because China has this enormous economy. enormous economy. enormous economy. >> Yeah. Uh I think there's a lot of >> Yeah. Uh I think there's a lot of >> Yeah. Uh I think there's a lot of factors that went into this. I mean factors that went into this. I mean factors that went into this. I mean first there was a certain degree of just first there was a certain degree of just first there was a certain degree of just general American hubris particularly general American hubris particularly general American hubris particularly post war. We've won uh we've won the post war. We've won uh we've won the post war. We've won uh we've won the cold war. We have the magic formula. We cold war. We have the magic formula. We cold war. We have the magic formula. We have the model for how you organize a have the model for how you organize a have the model for how you organize a modern society. It's got to be a modern society. It's got to be a modern society. It's got to be a market-based uh economy. It's got to be market-based uh economy. It's got to be market-based uh economy. It's got to be based on rule of law. It's got to be based on rule of law. It's got to be based on rule of law. It's got to be opened uh to trading with others. That's opened uh to trading with others. That's opened uh to trading with others. That's the modern world. And this is what you the modern world. And this is what you the modern world. And this is what you get when you read, you know, Frank get when you read, you know, Frank get when you read, you know, Frank Fukyama who is in my view a fine scholar Fukyama who is in my view a fine scholar Fukyama who is in my view a fine scholar but was wrong about that and some others but was wrong about that and some others but was wrong about that and some others in the 1990s. That's what we we in the 1990s. That's what we we in the 1990s. That's what we we generally believed. And it was generally believed. And it was generally believed. And it was bipartisan. Republicans and Democrats bipartisan. Republicans and Democrats bipartisan. Republicans and Democrats largely all subscribed uh to this idea.

largely all subscribed uh to this idea. largely all subscribed uh to this idea. And a key part of that was because we And a key part of that was because we And a key part of that was because we had found the magic formula. This was had found the magic formula. This was had found the magic formula. This was the answer. China had finally embraced the answer. China had finally embraced the answer. China had finally embraced markets and would inevitably become markets and would inevitably become markets and would inevitably become democratic because its citizens would democratic because its citizens would democratic because its citizens would get wealthier. There would be a middle get wealthier. There would be a middle get wealthier. There would be a middle class. That middle class would want class. That middle class would want class. That middle class would want freedom and political rights and it freedom and political rights and it freedom and political rights and it would insist upon being able to express would insist upon being able to express would insist upon being able to express itself, etc., etc., etc. You could tell itself, etc., etc., etc. You could tell itself, etc., etc., etc. You could tell yourself a pretty good story for how yourself a pretty good story for how yourself a pretty good story for how this is all going to work out. And then this is all going to work out. And then this is all going to work out. And then once China's a liberal democracy and all once China's a liberal democracy and all once China's a liberal democracy and all engaged with everyone and a member of engaged with everyone and a member of engaged with everyone and a member of all these international institutions all these international institutions all these international institutions like the World Trade Organization, we're like the World Trade Organization, we're like the World Trade Organization, we're going to have not a perfect world, but going to have not a perfect world, but going to have not a perfect world, but the best world we've ever had. Again, the best world we've ever had. Again, the best world we've ever had. Again, nice story and there was a coherent nice story and there was a coherent nice story and there was a coherent logic to it. It turned out to be wrong. logic to it. It turned out to be wrong. logic to it. It turned out to be wrong. The Chinese Communist Party was not The Chinese Communist Party was not The Chinese Communist Party was not about to liberalize. They uh put a about to liberalize. They uh put a about to liberalize. They uh put a premium on political control and had premium on political control and had premium on political control and had lots of ways of doing it. and we were lots of ways of doing it. and we were lots of ways of doing it. and we were too eager and too hasty to bring them too eager and too hasty to bring them too eager and too hasty to bring them into all of these institutions to engage into all of these institutions to engage into all of these institutions to engage them and help them grow. So one factor them and help them grow. So one factor them and help them grow. So one factor was just hubris on our part and over was just hubris on our part and over was just hubris on our part and over confidence that we really had the answer confidence that we really had the answer confidence that we really had the answer and they would inevitably adopt our and they would inevitably adopt our and they would inevitably adopt our system or something like our system. Um, system or something like our system. Um, system or something like our system. Um, second part was of course the short-term second part was of course the short-term second part was of course the short-term interests of American corporations who interests of American corporations who interests of American corporations who could make lots of money by shifting could make lots of money by shifting could make lots of money by shifting production uh to China and were in my production uh to China and were in my production uh to China and were in my view so eager to do that that they were view so eager to do that that they were view so eager to do that that they were willing to accept terms that they willing to accept terms that they willing to accept terms that they probably shouldn't have about technology probably shouldn't have about technology probably shouldn't have about technology sharing about letting the Chinese uh,

sharing about letting the Chinese uh, sharing about letting the Chinese uh, you know, basically learn to do what we you know, basically learn to do what we you know, basically learn to do what we had had learned to do. And I should be had had learned to do. And I should be had had learned to do. And I should be clear here, I don't think the United clear here, I don't think the United clear here, I don't think the United States should have tried to strangle States should have tried to strangle States should have tried to strangle Chinese economic development. um we Chinese economic development. um we Chinese economic development. um we shouldn't have tried to encourage it uh shouldn't have tried to encourage it uh shouldn't have tried to encourage it uh as much, but that would have had costs as much, but that would have had costs as much, but that would have had costs for us. We all benefited from embracing for us. We all benefited from embracing for us. We all benefited from embracing China the way we did. You and I got China the way we did. You and I got China the way we did. You and I got cheaper goods than we would have had cheaper goods than we would have had cheaper goods than we would have had otherwise. Some Americans, a minority of otherwise. Some Americans, a minority of otherwise. Some Americans, a minority of Americans were really badly hurt by Americans were really badly hurt by Americans were really badly hurt by this, the so-called China shock. So, this, the so-called China shock. So, this, the so-called China shock. So, there were industries, there were there were industries, there were there were industries, there were communities that were decimated, but the communities that were decimated, but the communities that were decimated, but the vast majority of Americans ultimately vast majority of Americans ultimately vast majority of Americans ultimately benefited economically. benefited economically. benefited economically. What those all those Americans, What those all those Americans, What those all those Americans, including you and me, forgot was that including you and me, forgot was that including you and me, forgot was that this was also going to ultimately begin this was also going to ultimately begin this was also going to ultimately begin to shift the balance of economic power to shift the balance of economic power to shift the balance of economic power in ways that were more beneficial to in ways that were more beneficial to in ways that were more beneficial to China than they ultimately were to us. China than they ultimately were to us. China than they ultimately were to us. And that was going to have consequences And that was going to have consequences And that was going to have consequences down the road. China was going to grow down the road. China was going to grow down the road. China was going to grow once China embraced markets, once China once China embraced markets, once China once China embraced markets, once China got rid of Mauism and got serious about got rid of Mauism and got serious about got rid of Mauism and got serious about real, they were going to catch up. But real, they were going to catch up. But real, they were going to catch up. But it would have been better for us and I it would have been better for us and I it would have been better for us and I think probably better for everyone if it think probably better for everyone if it think probably better for everyone if it had happened or at least for most of us had happened or at least for most of us had happened or at least for most of us if this had happened more slowly more if this had happened more slowly more if this had happened more slowly more gradually than it did.

gradually than it did. gradually than it did. >> But once it happened >> But once it happened >> But once it happened >> Oh yeah. >> Oh yeah. >> Oh yeah. >> And you know you look up and China has a >> And you know you look up and China has a >> And you know you look up and China has a bigger by some measures a bigger economy bigger by some measures a bigger economy bigger by some measures a bigger economy than the United States vastly bigger than the United States vastly bigger than the United States vastly bigger population. Like you're going to have to population. Like you're going to have to population. Like you're going to have to deal with China. You you can't continue deal with China. You you can't continue deal with China. You you can't continue to tell yourself it's unipolar in any to tell yourself it's unipolar in any to tell yourself it's unipolar in any sense. sense. sense. >> Yeah. This >> Yeah. This >> Yeah. This >> and why wouldn't they have a sphere of >> and why wouldn't they have a sphere of >> and why wouldn't they have a sphere of influence? Um well there's two points influence? Um well there's two points influence? Um well there's two points here. Uh one let's get to the sphere of here. Uh one let's get to the sphere of here. Uh one let's get to the sphere of influence point in a second but um to me influence point in a second but um to me influence point in a second but um to me one of the great call it tragedies is one of the great call it tragedies is one of the great call it tragedies is that beginning in the Bush that beginning in the Bush that beginning in the Bush administration um there there's a real administration um there there's a real administration um there there's a real recognition that China is now uh recognition that China is now uh recognition that China is now uh emerging as a potential peer competitor. emerging as a potential peer competitor. emerging as a potential peer competitor. You see this in the national security You see this in the national security You see this in the national security strategies written in the Bush strategies written in the Bush strategies written in the Bush administration. Um, and I know inside administration. Um, and I know inside administration. Um, and I know inside the Pentagon, there were real serious the Pentagon, there were real serious the Pentagon, there were real serious efforts made to start preparing for efforts made to start preparing for efforts made to start preparing for this. Uh, the problem is that 9/11 came this. Uh, the problem is that 9/11 came this. Uh, the problem is that 9/11 came along and completely blew uh the Bush along and completely blew uh the Bush along and completely blew uh the Bush administration's agenda. Instead of administration's agenda. Instead of administration's agenda. Instead of focusing on great power relations and on focusing on great power relations and on focusing on great power relations and on China, they focus on the global war on China, they focus on the global war on China, they focus on the global war on terror. Right? And ever since then, terror. Right? And ever since then, terror. Right? And ever since then, you've had every single American you've had every single American you've had every single American president saying they were going to president saying they were going to president saying they were going to focus laser-like on China. We're going focus laser-like on China. We're going focus laser-like on China. We're going to pivot to Asia. We're going to focus to pivot to Asia. We're going to focus to pivot to Asia. We're going to focus on China. We're going to crack down on on China. We're going to crack down on on China. We're going to crack down on Chinese practices. And every one of Chinese practices. And every one of Chinese practices. And every one of those presidents, I think this is true those presidents, I think this is true those presidents, I think this is true of Bush, this is true of Obama. This is of Bush, this is true of Obama. This is of Bush, this is true of Obama. This is true of Trump one. This is true of true of Trump one. This is true of true of Trump one. This is true of Biden. They get blown off course by Biden. They get blown off course by Biden. They get blown off course by events elsewhere, usually in the Middle

events elsewhere, usually in the Middle events elsewhere, usually in the Middle East. And trouble in the Middle East and East. And trouble in the Middle East and East. And trouble in the Middle East and America's inability to stay out of that America's inability to stay out of that America's inability to stay out of that trouble has been a great benefit because trouble has been a great benefit because trouble has been a great benefit because it's never allowed the United States it's never allowed the United States it's never allowed the United States >> benefit to China. >> benefit to China. >> benefit to China. >> Benefit to China. Sorry. Uh it's uh >> Benefit to China. Sorry. Uh it's uh >> Benefit to China. Sorry. Uh it's uh because it's never allowed the United because it's never allowed the United because it's never allowed the United States to do what serious people in the States to do what serious people in the States to do what serious people in the government wanted to do, which was to government wanted to do, which was to government wanted to do, which was to focus a lot more attention on that focus a lot more attention on that focus a lot more attention on that problem. Second question is the sphere problem. Second question is the sphere problem. Second question is the sphere of influence issue. Um so if I were the of influence issue. Um so if I were the of influence issue. Um so if I were the Chinese, I would like to have a sphere Chinese, I would like to have a sphere Chinese, I would like to have a sphere of influence in Asia. I would like to of influence in Asia. I would like to of influence in Asia. I would like to have the United States out. who wants have the United States out. who wants have the United States out. who wants the world's most powerful country or the world's most powerful country or the world's most powerful country or arguably the world's most powerful arguably the world's most powerful arguably the world's most powerful country allied with all of your country allied with all of your country allied with all of your neighbors and with substantial military neighbors and with substantial military neighbors and with substantial military forces nearby. If I were China, I would forces nearby. If I were China, I would forces nearby. If I were China, I would prefer a situation where the United prefer a situation where the United prefer a situation where the United States is essentially out of Asia. And I States is essentially out of Asia. And I States is essentially out of Asia. And I don't want to conquer Japan. I don't don't want to conquer Japan. I don't don't want to conquer Japan. I don't want to conquer Korea. I don't want to want to conquer Korea. I don't want to want to conquer Korea. I don't want to conquer Vietnam. That's not necessary. conquer Vietnam. That's not necessary. conquer Vietnam. That's not necessary. Too much work. I just want relations of Too much work. I just want relations of Too much work. I just want relations of difference. I want those countries to difference. I want those countries to difference. I want those countries to not be a security threat to me. I want not be a security threat to me. I want not be a security threat to me. I want them to uh pay close attention to my them to uh pay close attention to my them to uh pay close attention to my wishes. In other words, I would like a wishes. In other words, I would like a wishes. In other words, I would like a relationship with most of my neighbors relationship with most of my neighbors relationship with most of my neighbors in Asia, similar to the relationship the in Asia, similar to the relationship the in Asia, similar to the relationship the United States has with most countries in United States has with most countries in United States has with most countries in the Western Hemisphere where they're the Western Hemisphere where they're the Western Hemisphere where they're very careful how they interact with the very careful how they interact with the very careful how they interact with the United States because we tend to be United States because we tend to be United States because we tend to be pretty heavy-handed in dealing with them pretty heavy-handed in dealing with them pretty heavy-handed in dealing with them for all those reasons. That's what I for all those reasons. That's what I for all those reasons. That's what I would like if I were China. Now, if would like if I were China. Now, if would like if I were China. Now, if you're the United States, the question you're the United States, the question you're the United States, the question is, is that something you should be is, is that something you should be is, is that something you should be happy with? And my view is no. That a

happy with? And my view is no. That a happy with? And my view is no. That a China that was as secure in Asia as we China that was as secure in Asia as we China that was as secure in Asia as we are in the Western Hemisphere, we face are in the Western Hemisphere, we face are in the Western Hemisphere, we face no serious rivals in the Western no serious rivals in the Western no serious rivals in the Western Hemisphere. There's no enemy armies Hemisphere. There's no enemy armies Hemisphere. There's no enemy armies about to invade the United States from about to invade the United States from about to invade the United States from anywhere in the Western Hemisphere. We anywhere in the Western Hemisphere. We anywhere in the Western Hemisphere. We can run around the world getting into can run around the world getting into can run around the world getting into trouble in lots of places because we trouble in lots of places because we trouble in lots of places because we don't have to worry about defending our don't have to worry about defending our don't have to worry about defending our borders. That's etc. A China that was in borders. That's etc. A China that was in borders. That's etc. A China that was in a similar position would suddenly be a similar position would suddenly be a similar position would suddenly be much freer to roam around the world much freer to roam around the world much freer to roam around the world getting into trouble in lots of places. getting into trouble in lots of places. getting into trouble in lots of places. Maybe the Chinese are smarter than we Maybe the Chinese are smarter than we Maybe the Chinese are smarter than we are. Maybe they wouldn't do that. But are. Maybe they wouldn't do that. But are. Maybe they wouldn't do that. But the possibility would become much more the possibility would become much more the possibility would become much more viable. And that might even include viable. And that might even include viable. And that might even include starting to form strategic partnerships starting to form strategic partnerships starting to form strategic partnerships with countries in the Western with countries in the Western with countries in the Western Hemisphere. Not just economic Hemisphere. Not just economic Hemisphere. Not just economic partnerships, but strategic partnerships, but strategic partnerships, but strategic partnerships. If China depends on partnerships. If China depends on partnerships. If China depends on economic resources, maybe it would like economic resources, maybe it would like economic resources, maybe it would like to have a military role here. Maybe it to have a military role here. Maybe it to have a military role here. Maybe it would like to form a alliance with would like to form a alliance with would like to form a alliance with Brazil. This is not something the United Brazil. This is not something the United Brazil. This is not something the United States has ever really wanted. That's States has ever really wanted. That's States has ever really wanted. That's what, you know, the Monroe Doctrine was what, you know, the Monroe Doctrine was what, you know, the Monroe Doctrine was all about and it's been a great benefit all about and it's been a great benefit all about and it's been a great benefit to American security. So, I think the to American security. So, I think the to American security. So, I think the United States should do what it can to United States should do what it can to United States should do what it can to prevent China from dominating Asia the prevent China from dominating Asia the prevent China from dominating Asia the way we dominate uh the Western way we dominate uh the Western way we dominate uh the Western Hemisphere. I think that's possible to Hemisphere. I think that's possible to Hemisphere. I think that's possible to do, but I worry that we're doing all of do, but I worry that we're doing all of do, but I worry that we're doing all of the things that you shouldn't do if that the things that you shouldn't do if that the things that you shouldn't do if that was your goal.

was your goal. was your goal. >> Well, decisions made in Washington have >> Well, decisions made in Washington have >> Well, decisions made in Washington have done a lot to tank the Japanese economy. done a lot to tank the Japanese economy. done a lot to tank the Japanese economy. >> I think that's my read and the >> I think that's my read and the >> I think that's my read and the president's recent comments about the president's recent comments about the president's recent comments about the South Korean president South Korean president South Korean president suggest in both in both countries, which suggest in both in both countries, which suggest in both in both countries, which are the the key countries that you're are the the key countries that you're are the the key countries that you're talking about, like a withdrawal of talking about, like a withdrawal of talking about, like a withdrawal of American support to some extent. American support to some extent. American support to some extent. >> Yeah, it's it's quite remarkable. I mean >> Yeah, it's it's quite remarkable. I mean >> Yeah, it's it's quite remarkable. I mean the the the business with North Korea is the the the business with North Korea is the the the business with North Korea is or North Korea and South Korea is truly or North Korea and South Korea is truly or North Korea and South Korea is truly baffling. Uh and we can get into that in baffling. Uh and we can get into that in baffling. Uh and we can get into that in in in in >> some summarize your view of it if you >> some summarize your view of it if you >> some summarize your view of it if you don't mind. I'm confused. don't mind. I'm confused. don't mind. I'm confused. >> Yeah. I don't get it at all. I mean it's >> Yeah. I don't get it at all. I mean it's >> Yeah. I don't get it at all. I mean it's I mean South Korea is first of all been I mean South Korea is first of all been I mean South Korea is first of all been a very stalwart ally for the United a very stalwart ally for the United a very stalwart ally for the United States for a long time States for a long time States for a long time and moreover South Korea is a great and moreover South Korea is a great and moreover South Korea is a great success story when you think about it success story when you think about it success story when you think about it from broader American interests. This is from broader American interests. This is from broader American interests. This is a country that when we allied with them a country that when we allied with them a country that when we allied with them initially it was a military dictatorship initially it was a military dictatorship initially it was a military dictatorship under Singman and not a very nice under Singman and not a very nice under Singman and not a very nice military dictatorship but for strategic military dictatorship but for strategic military dictatorship but for strategic reasons we backed them in the Korean war reasons we backed them in the Korean war reasons we backed them in the Korean war and subsequently and then over time and subsequently and then over time and subsequently and then over time South Korea becomes a quite successful South Korea becomes a quite successful South Korea becomes a quite successful democracy and it does this by the way democracy and it does this by the way democracy and it does this by the way not because we send the 82nd airborne to not because we send the 82nd airborne to not because we send the 82nd airborne to do a regime change but because the South do a regime change but because the South do a regime change but because the South Koreans as they developed economically Koreans as they developed economically Koreans as they developed economically decided they wanted to become decided they wanted to become decided they wanted to become democratic. They were also many of them democratic. They were also many of them democratic. They were also many of them had been to the United States. They had had been to the United States. They had had been to the United States. They had studied here. They liked what they saw studied here. They liked what they saw studied here. They liked what they saw etc. And so South Korea on its own etc. And so South Korea on its own etc. And so South Korea on its own initiative becomes a democracy with some initiative becomes a democracy with some initiative becomes a democracy with some encouragement from the United States but encouragement from the United States but encouragement from the United States but not with us telling them what to do or

not with us telling them what to do or not with us telling them what to do or anything like that. So it's a great anything like that. So it's a great anything like that. So it's a great success story for the United States. And success story for the United States. And success story for the United States. And now to suddenly say, well, I've got a now to suddenly say, well, I've got a now to suddenly say, well, I've got a great relationship with Kim Jong-un, you great relationship with Kim Jong-un, you great relationship with Kim Jong-un, you know, a truly odious dictator. And know, a truly odious dictator. And know, a truly odious dictator. And that's the reason why I want to suspend that's the reason why I want to suspend that's the reason why I want to suspend military exercises with South Korea. military exercises with South Korea. military exercises with South Korea. This is nuts. This is This is nuts. This is This is nuts. This is >> What is it, though? What's driving this? >> What is it, though? What's driving this? >> What is it, though? What's driving this? >> Um, partly I think it's the a perennial >> Um, partly I think it's the a perennial >> Um, partly I think it's the a perennial Trump tendency to want to distract Trump tendency to want to distract Trump tendency to want to distract people from whatever the problem is that people from whatever the problem is that people from whatever the problem is that he's caused. and he's a genius at this he's caused. and he's a genius at this he's caused. and he's a genius at this at always changing the subject, getting at always changing the subject, getting at always changing the subject, getting us talking about something else instead us talking about something else instead us talking about something else instead of some, you know, what whatever is of some, you know, what whatever is of some, you know, what whatever is going wrong. Um, I think he still wants going wrong. Um, I think he still wants going wrong. Um, I think he still wants to go down in history being remembered to go down in history being remembered to go down in history being remembered as some kind of peacemaker and he still as some kind of peacemaker and he still as some kind of peacemaker and he still believes maybe he can pull off some believes maybe he can pull off some believes maybe he can pull off some miracle with North Korea, alter that miracle with North Korea, alter that miracle with North Korea, alter that relationship. Uh, I think that's relationship. Uh, I think that's relationship. Uh, I think that's fanciful. Um, and third, and this I fanciful. Um, and third, and this I fanciful. Um, and third, and this I think has been a a problem throughout think has been a a problem throughout think has been a a problem throughout Trump's presidency, is he has this Trump's presidency, is he has this Trump's presidency, is he has this exaggerated ability in his own personal exaggerated ability in his own personal exaggerated ability in his own personal qualities as a negotiator and um, qualities as a negotiator and um, qualities as a negotiator and um, dealmaker that if he can just get in a dealmaker that if he can just get in a dealmaker that if he can just get in a room with people, somehow the force of room with people, somehow the force of room with people, somehow the force of personality will turn the tide. And this personality will turn the tide. And this personality will turn the tide. And this didn't work in his first term. Kim didn't work in his first term. Kim didn't work in his first term. Kim Jong-un picked his pocket in his first Jong-un picked his pocket in his first Jong-un picked his pocket in his first term. Kim Jong-un got something that's term. Kim Jong-un got something that's term. Kim Jong-un got something that's worth something in world policy. He got worth something in world policy. He got worth something in world policy. He got a state visit. He got several of not a a state visit. He got several of not a a state visit. He got several of not a state visit. Got a personal one-on-one state visit. Got a personal one-on-one state visit. Got a personal one-on-one visit with the US president. Right?

visit with the US president. Right? visit with the US president. Right? Nothing he'd ever No North Korean leader Nothing he'd ever No North Korean leader Nothing he'd ever No North Korean leader had ever gotten anything like that had ever gotten anything like that had ever gotten anything like that before. And what did he give up in order before. And what did he give up in order before. And what did he give up in order to get that? What concessions did he to get that? What concessions did he to get that? What concessions did he make in order to get that one-on-one make in order to get that one-on-one make in order to get that one-on-one meeting with the US president? Zero. meeting with the US president? Zero. meeting with the US president? Zero. Absolutely nothing. He didn't compromise Absolutely nothing. He didn't compromise Absolutely nothing. He didn't compromise on his nuclear program. didn't on his nuclear program. didn't on his nuclear program. didn't compromise on his attitudes towards compromise on his attitudes towards compromise on his attitudes towards South Korea, didn't do any of those South Korea, didn't do any of those South Korea, didn't do any of those things. He got the meeting and walked things. He got the meeting and walked things. He got the meeting and walked away, right? And so Trump, having gotten away, right? And so Trump, having gotten away, right? And so Trump, having gotten his pocket picked by Kim the first time his pocket picked by Kim the first time his pocket picked by Kim the first time around and now wants to go back and do around and now wants to go back and do around and now wants to go back and do this again, I I can't put a rational this again, I I can't put a rational this again, I I can't put a rational explanation behind it. Home ownership explanation behind it. Home ownership explanation behind it. Home ownership has always been at the center of the has always been at the center of the has always been at the center of the American dream. It is an actual asset, a American dream. It is an actual asset, a American dream. It is an actual asset, a place people work their entire lives to place people work their entire lives to place people work their entire lives to build, a place of stability and security build, a place of stability and security build, a place of stability and security and real value. Right now though, too and real value. Right now though, too and real value. Right now though, too many homeowners are stuck swiping credit many homeowners are stuck swiping credit many homeowners are stuck swiping credit cards to cover groceries. There's cards to cover groceries. There's cards to cover groceries. There's basically a survival tax of 20% interest basically a survival tax of 20% interest basically a survival tax of 20% interest or more. So why keep handing your money or more. So why keep handing your money or more. So why keep handing your money to the banks when you could keep it for to the banks when you could keep it for to the banks when you could keep it for your family? Interest is what kills you. your family? Interest is what kills you. your family? Interest is what kills you. Our friends at American Financing have a Our friends at American Financing have a Our friends at American Financing have a better way. They're helping homeowners better way. They're helping homeowners better way. They're helping homeowners use their hard-earned equity, and use their hard-earned equity, and use their hard-earned equity, and they're supporting Americans looking to they're supporting Americans looking to they're supporting Americans looking to fulfill the dream of owning a home with fulfill the dream of owning a home with fulfill the dream of owning a home with mortgage rates currently in the fives.

mortgage rates currently in the fives. mortgage rates currently in the fives. American Financing saves its customers American Financing saves its customers American Financing saves its customers an average of $800 a month. That's about an average of $800 a month. That's about an average of $800 a month. That's about 10 grand a year. It's not just a loan. 10 grand a year. It's not just a loan. 10 grand a year. It's not just a loan. It's a true financial reset. We It's a true financial reset. We It's a true financial reset. We recommend American Financing. They're recommend American Financing. They're recommend American Financing. They're called America's home for home loans for called America's home for home loans for called America's home for home loans for a reason. So get out of credit card a reason. So get out of credit card a reason. So get out of credit card debt. I mean, it is just crazy to borrow debt. I mean, it is just crazy to borrow debt. I mean, it is just crazy to borrow money. No judgment, but it doesn't make money. No judgment, but it doesn't make money. No judgment, but it doesn't make any sense to borrow money at that rate. any sense to borrow money at that rate. any sense to borrow money at that rate. If you want out, call 800685-55696. 800685-55696 800685-55696 or visit americanfinancing.net/tucker. Why do you why do you think we're at war Why do you why do you think we're at war with Iran? with Iran? with Iran? >> Um I mean they're the they're the >> Um I mean they're the they're the >> Um I mean they're the they're the reasons, you know, there are many layers reasons, you know, there are many layers reasons, you know, there are many layers uh and levels on which we could say true uh and levels on which we could say true uh and levels on which we could say true things, but what is the what's the bait? things, but what is the what's the bait? things, but what is the what's the bait? What's the bedrock here? What's the bedrock here? What's the bedrock here? >> Um >> Um >> Um I I I'll just go through my my laundry I I I'll just go through my my laundry I I I'll just go through my my laundry list. I mean there has been um a bad list. I mean there has been um a bad list. I mean there has been um a bad relationship between the United States relationship between the United States relationship between the United States and Iran for 40 plus years. We all know and Iran for 40 plus years. We all know and Iran for 40 plus years. We all know that in my view Iran has on number of that in my view Iran has on number of that in my view Iran has on number of occasions in the past tried to improve occasions in the past tried to improve occasions in the past tried to improve that relationship. They've made the that relationship. They've made the that relationship. They've made the initiative. They did so in the '9s. They initiative. They did so in the '9s. They initiative. They did so in the '9s. They did so in the early as after 9/11. And did so in the early as after 9/11. And did so in the early as after 9/11. And each time ultimately they get the back each time ultimately they get the back each time ultimately they get the back of our hand. We sometimes have flirted of our hand. We sometimes have flirted of our hand. We sometimes have flirted with it but um but never did uh anything with it but um but never did uh anything with it but um but never did uh anything uh substantial and eventually rejected uh substantial and eventually rejected uh substantial and eventually rejected their their overtures. I think most of

their their overtures. I think most of their their overtures. I think most of that is a function of the US commitment that is a function of the US commitment that is a function of the US commitment to Israel. The fact that Israel and the to Israel. The fact that Israel and the to Israel. The fact that Israel and the United and Iran are deeply at odds with United and Iran are deeply at odds with United and Iran are deeply at odds with uh each other for various reasons. Um uh each other for various reasons. Um uh each other for various reasons. Um and therefore the political price in the and therefore the political price in the and therefore the political price in the United States has been pretty high. uh United States has been pretty high. uh United States has been pretty high. uh and not all but some parts of what you and not all but some parts of what you and not all but some parts of what you know I have called uh the Israel lobby know I have called uh the Israel lobby know I have called uh the Israel lobby um have been pushing for a military um have been pushing for a military um have been pushing for a military action against Iran for a long time. action against Iran for a long time. action against Iran for a long time. Again, it's important to say not all Again, it's important to say not all Again, it's important to say not all parts. For example, J Street condemned parts. For example, J Street condemned parts. For example, J Street condemned uh the war when it began uh this time uh the war when it began uh this time uh the war when it began uh this time around. Uh and that's that's terrific. around. Uh and that's that's terrific. around. Uh and that's that's terrific. Uh good good for them. So, that's part Uh good good for them. So, that's part Uh good good for them. So, that's part of it. There's been a sort of thumb on of it. There's been a sort of thumb on of it. There's been a sort of thumb on the scale pushing for it. Um now, why the scale pushing for it. Um now, why the scale pushing for it. Um now, why are we at war with Iran now? It's not are we at war with Iran now? It's not are we at war with Iran now? It's not because Iran was about to get a nuclear because Iran was about to get a nuclear because Iran was about to get a nuclear weapon. It's not because Iran was weapon. It's not because Iran was weapon. It's not because Iran was suddenly about to launch some military suddenly about to launch some military suddenly about to launch some military operation that was a great danger. Uh operation that was a great danger. Uh operation that was a great danger. Uh the approximate cause I think was uh the approximate cause I think was uh the approximate cause I think was uh first of all Benjamin Netanyahu's visit first of all Benjamin Netanyahu's visit first of all Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the White House which you he came and to the White House which you he came and to the White House which you he came and gave this elaborate briefing uh about gave this elaborate briefing uh about gave this elaborate briefing uh about how Iran was teetering on the edge and how Iran was teetering on the edge and how Iran was teetering on the edge and you know sort of all it would take would you know sort of all it would take would you know sort of all it would take would be a sharp wrap. you the regime would be a sharp wrap. you the regime would be a sharp wrap. you the regime would collapse and we'd have a new day, new collapse and we'd have a new day, new collapse and we'd have a new day, new opportunities to have a different opportunities to have a different opportunities to have a different relationship with Iran, get rid of relationship with Iran, get rid of relationship with Iran, get rid of whatever's left of its nuclear program, whatever's left of its nuclear program, whatever's left of its nuclear program, etc. And he was able to persuade Donald etc. And he was able to persuade Donald etc. And he was able to persuade Donald Trump that this was correct. Um, the Trump that this was correct. Um, the Trump that this was correct. Um, the first time he's successful. Netanyahu's first time he's successful. Netanyahu's first time he's successful. Netanyahu's made similar pitches in the past to made similar pitches in the past to made similar pitches in the past to Biden, to Obama, to Trump, I think in

Biden, to Obama, to Trump, I think in Biden, to Obama, to Trump, I think in the first term, etc. and all private or the first term, etc. and all private or the first term, etc. and all private or American presidents had said no this is American presidents had said no this is American presidents had said no this is a bad idea this time around Trump did it a bad idea this time around Trump did it a bad idea this time around Trump did it now why he did it I'm not inside his now why he did it I'm not inside his now why he did it I'm not inside his head so I don't know but I think part of head so I don't know but I think part of head so I don't know but I think part of it was the success of the Venezuela it was the success of the Venezuela it was the success of the Venezuela operation the kidnapping of Maduro a operation the kidnapping of Maduro a operation the kidnapping of Maduro a very different operation of course very different operation of course very different operation of course special forces just snatching someone special forces just snatching someone special forces just snatching someone and removing them uh etc but he began to and removing them uh etc but he began to and removing them uh etc but he began to believe that you know he really had believe that you know he really had believe that you know he really had great judgment and that the American great judgment and that the American great judgment and that the American military could accomplish lish uh military could accomplish lish uh military could accomplish lish uh wonderful purposes. wonderful purposes. wonderful purposes. There was no, as near as I can tell, no There was no, as near as I can tell, no There was no, as near as I can tell, no strong dissents within the strong dissents within the strong dissents within the administration in part because it is an administration in part because it is an administration in part because it is an administration made up mostly of yesmen. administration made up mostly of yesmen. administration made up mostly of yesmen. Uh we'll tell the president what what he Uh we'll tell the president what what he Uh we'll tell the president what what he wants to hear. There may have been some wants to hear. There may have been some wants to hear. There may have been some mild well are you sure kind of comments. mild well are you sure kind of comments. mild well are you sure kind of comments. Um, and then finally, I think this is Um, and then finally, I think this is Um, and then finally, I think this is uh, you know, Trump at the uh, end of uh, you know, Trump at the uh, end of uh, you know, Trump at the uh, end of his political career, we think, um, and his political career, we think, um, and his political career, we think, um, and near the end of his life, who's playing near the end of his life, who's playing near the end of his life, who's playing for the history books, and I think he for the history books, and I think he for the history books, and I think he saw this as possibly a way to kind of saw this as possibly a way to kind of saw this as possibly a way to kind of run the table. You know, I've gotten rid run the table. You know, I've gotten rid run the table. You know, I've gotten rid of Maduro in Venezuela. That was always of Maduro in Venezuela. That was always of Maduro in Venezuela. That was always a headache. I'm working on Cuba. I'll a headache. I'm working on Cuba. I'll a headache. I'm working on Cuba. I'll probably get that one. Um, I'll get probably get that one. Um, I'll get probably get that one. Um, I'll get Greenland sooner or later. Uh, so Greenland sooner or later. Uh, so Greenland sooner or later. Uh, so that'll be terrific. And Iran's been a that'll be terrific. And Iran's been a that'll be terrific. And Iran's been a problem for 40 years. and I will be the problem for 40 years. and I will be the problem for 40 years. and I will be the president that has solved it and bring president that has solved it and bring president that has solved it and bring you know wonderful new opportunities uh you know wonderful new opportunities uh you know wonderful new opportunities uh to the Middle East and put all that to the Middle East and put all that to the Middle East and put all that together and because he believed again

together and because he believed again together and because he believed again this is where Netanyahu helped persuade this is where Netanyahu helped persuade this is where Netanyahu helped persuade him that it was going to be cheap quick him that it was going to be cheap quick him that it was going to be cheap quick fast few days of bombing regime fast few days of bombing regime fast few days of bombing regime collapses get some new people in there collapses get some new people in there collapses get some new people in there every be fine I don't think Trump if if every be fine I don't think Trump if if every be fine I don't think Trump if if Trump had had any clear idea that he Trump had had any clear idea that he Trump had had any clear idea that he would be where he is today when he would be where he is today when he would be where he is today when he started it I don't think he would have started it I don't think he would have started it I don't think he would have done done done But he persuaded himself or was But he persuaded himself or was But he persuaded himself or was persuaded that this would be just like persuaded that this would be just like persuaded that this would be just like other operations he has authorized. other operations he has authorized. other operations he has authorized. Short, quick, discreet, cheap, and he Short, quick, discreet, cheap, and he Short, quick, discreet, cheap, and he turned out to be badly wrong. turned out to be badly wrong. turned out to be badly wrong. >> Yeah. I I don't I don't know the answer. >> Yeah. I I don't I don't know the answer. >> Yeah. I I don't I don't know the answer. Um I I think that Trump understood fully Um I I think that Trump understood fully Um I I think that Trump understood fully well the consequences, but um but well the consequences, but um but well the consequences, but um but whatever the cause. whatever the cause. whatever the cause. >> I'm sorry. You think you think he >> I'm sorry. You think you think he >> I'm sorry. You think you think he understood the understood the understood the >> I know. Yeah, I know he did. He >> I know. Yeah, I know he did. He >> I know. Yeah, I know he did. He understood the consequences. Yeah, of understood the consequences. Yeah, of understood the consequences. Yeah, of course he the potential consequences for course he the potential consequences for course he the potential consequences for sure he did. Yeah. No, he was told and sure he did. Yeah. No, he was told and sure he did. Yeah. No, he was told and he agreed that that those were real he agreed that that those were real he agreed that that those were real risks risks risks >> and the risks so far outweighed the >> and the risks so far outweighed the >> and the risks so far outweighed the potential upside potential upside potential upside >> that it does make you wonder. But I I >> that it does make you wonder. But I I >> that it does make you wonder. But I I don't I don't have the answer. But but don't I don't have the answer. But but don't I don't have the answer. But but we do know it wasn't just Trump. There we do know it wasn't just Trump. There we do know it wasn't just Trump. There have been no anti-war protests.

have been no anti-war protests. have been no anti-war protests. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> So what does that tell you? It tells you >> So what does that tell you? It tells you >> So what does that tell you? It tells you that Trump's organized opponents aren't, that Trump's organized opponents aren't, that Trump's organized opponents aren't, you know, they they don't like the way you know, they they don't like the way you know, they they don't like the way it's going. Nobody does. But they were it's going. Nobody does. But they were it's going. Nobody does. But they were not against regime change in Iran. So not against regime change in Iran. So not against regime change in Iran. So why is everybody in the political why is everybody in the political why is everybody in the political establishment fund Chuck Schumer's for establishment fund Chuck Schumer's for establishment fund Chuck Schumer's for it? Like he may have done it better than it? Like he may have done it better than it? Like he may have done it better than Trump or whatever, but conceptually Trump or whatever, but conceptually Trump or whatever, but conceptually they're on the same page. Why? they're on the same page. Why? they're on the same page. Why? >> Yeah. You want you want to be clear >> Yeah. You want you want to be clear >> Yeah. You want you want to be clear here. Not everybody in the political here. Not everybody in the political here. Not everybody in the political establishment. And I think for Democrats establishment. And I think for Democrats establishment. And I think for Democrats this is puts Democrats in an interesting this is puts Democrats in an interesting this is puts Democrats in an interesting position. A number of them have been of position. A number of them have been of position. A number of them have been of course outspoken saying this this is a course outspoken saying this this is a course outspoken saying this this is a crazy idea condemning the president etc. crazy idea condemning the president etc. crazy idea condemning the president etc. Um whether I again I'm not inside their Um whether I again I'm not inside their Um whether I again I'm not inside their heads. Whether they heads. Whether they heads. Whether they would love the war to be over because would love the war to be over because would love the war to be over because that would be good. I think you know that would be good. I think you know that would be good. I think you know that's where Bernie Sanders is. If you that's where Bernie Sanders is. If you that's where Bernie Sanders is. If you gave Bernie Sanders a button said you gave Bernie Sanders a button said you gave Bernie Sanders a button said you can press this button and the war would can press this button and the war would can press this button and the war would stop tomorrow, he would press it stop tomorrow, he would press it stop tomorrow, he would press it immediately. I think there are plenty of immediately. I think there are plenty of immediately. I think there are plenty of Democrats and a few Republicans who Democrats and a few Republicans who Democrats and a few Republicans who would who would do that now. Um but would who would do that now. Um but would who would do that now. Um but there may be a few Democrats who also there may be a few Democrats who also there may be a few Democrats who also say, "Well, if this sort of drags on say, "Well, if this sort of drags on say, "Well, if this sort of drags on into the fall, that looks good for us."

into the fall, that looks good for us." into the fall, that looks good for us." So there may be some ambivalence and you So there may be some ambivalence and you So there may be some ambivalence and you want to criticize the president but um want to criticize the president but um want to criticize the president but um why why there haven't been protests. I why why there haven't been protests. I why why there haven't been protests. I think this gets back at something um uh think this gets back at something um uh think this gets back at something um uh that's been true now for a long time. I that's been true now for a long time. I that's been true now for a long time. I think uh relying on the all volunteer think uh relying on the all volunteer think uh relying on the all volunteer force force force >> uh has made it easier for presidents to >> uh has made it easier for presidents to >> uh has made it easier for presidents to get our get us into military operations get our get us into military operations get our get us into military operations because everyone is doing and because everyone is doing and because everyone is doing and volunteered for service. No one's being volunteered for service. No one's being volunteered for service. No one's being drafted. No one's being hauled out of drafted. No one's being hauled out of drafted. No one's being hauled out of it. And you got in in the forever wars it. And you got in in the forever wars it. And you got in in the forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, you did start in Iraq and Afghanistan, you did start in Iraq and Afghanistan, you did start to get push back from military families, to get push back from military families, to get push back from military families, particularly people in the reserves who particularly people in the reserves who particularly people in the reserves who really didn't expect to suddenly be really didn't expect to suddenly be really didn't expect to suddenly be doing repeated deployments uh overseas doing repeated deployments uh overseas doing repeated deployments uh overseas as well. Um it is also true that the as well. Um it is also true that the as well. Um it is also true that the casualty figures have been relatively casualty figures have been relatively casualty figures have been relatively low. Um so you don't see people uh low. Um so you don't see people uh low. Um so you don't see people uh concerned about that. Um, and most of concerned about that. Um, and most of concerned about that. Um, and most of the consequences have been economic and the consequences have been economic and the consequences have been economic and I think we are going to see those play I think we are going to see those play I think we are going to see those play themselves out in elections. That's themselves out in elections. That's themselves out in elections. That's where people don't have to necessarily where people don't have to necessarily where people don't have to necessarily go protest the war. They're going to go protest the war. They're going to go protest the war. They're going to vote people out of office. But very vote people out of office. But very vote people out of office. But very quickly after the March 2003 invasion of quickly after the March 2003 invasion of quickly after the March 2003 invasion of Iraq, there were protests and there were Iraq, there were protests and there were Iraq, there were protests and there were organized protests organized protests organized protests >> against that war, I think.

>> against that war, I think. >> against that war, I think. >> Yeah, there were some. And there have >> Yeah, there were some. And there have >> Yeah, there were some. And there have been some protests. I don't think been some protests. I don't think been some protests. I don't think they've been in large scale. And I don't they've been in large scale. And I don't they've been in large scale. And I don't know again I don't know if there's been know again I don't know if there's been know again I don't know if there's been a certain amount of you know battle a certain amount of you know battle a certain amount of you know battle fatigue almost that we've had a series fatigue almost that we've had a series fatigue almost that we've had a series of the so-called no kings rallies which of the so-called no kings rallies which of the so-called no kings rallies which were quite substantial quite large and were quite substantial quite large and were quite substantial quite large and are sort of are sort of are sort of >> across the horizon protests against >> across the horizon protests against >> across the horizon protests against where the administration is going. Uh where the administration is going. Uh where the administration is going. Uh whether or not this is just one more whether or not this is just one more whether or not this is just one more thing um and maybe some of that energy thing um and maybe some of that energy thing um and maybe some of that energy has been sapped or some of that energy has been sapped or some of that energy has been sapped or some of that energy is going into gearing up for the is going into gearing up for the is going into gearing up for the midterms. I just don't I don't have a midterms. I just don't I don't have a midterms. I just don't I don't have a good sense of why that might be the good sense of why that might be the good sense of why that might be the case. case. case. >> I I don't I don't either, but I think >> I I don't I don't either, but I think >> I I don't I don't either, but I think it's interesting. We're often assured it's interesting. We're often assured it's interesting. We're often assured that Christians are safe in the Holy that Christians are safe in the Holy that Christians are safe in the Holy Land. Is that true? Well, the Land. Is that true? Well, the Land. Is that true? Well, the descendants of the very first descendants of the very first descendants of the very first Christians, these are families who have Christians, these are families who have Christians, these are families who have worshiped in the land of Jesus for worshiped in the land of Jesus for worshiped in the land of Jesus for centuries, for millennia, are now facing centuries, for millennia, are now facing centuries, for millennia, are now facing enormous pressure to flee their own enormous pressure to flee their own enormous pressure to flee their own homes. War and anti-Christian terrorism homes. War and anti-Christian terrorism homes. War and anti-Christian terrorism are driving them out and untold numbers are driving them out and untold numbers are driving them out and untold numbers of innocent people are left feeling lost of innocent people are left feeling lost of innocent people are left feeling lost and without hope. This is why we are and without hope. This is why we are and without hope. This is why we are truly genuinely proud to support the truly genuinely proud to support the truly genuinely proud to support the Vulnerable People Project. VPP is one of Vulnerable People Project. VPP is one of Vulnerable People Project. VPP is one of the very few organizations in the world the very few organizations in the world the very few organizations in the world consistently helping vulnerable consistently helping vulnerable consistently helping vulnerable Christians throughout the Holy Land. Not Christians throughout the Holy Land. Not Christians throughout the Holy Land. Not hurting them, not lying to them, not hurting them, not lying to them, not hurting them, not lying to them, not trying to ethnically cleanse them, but trying to ethnically cleanse them, but trying to ethnically cleanse them, but helping them for real. Because of the helping them for real. Because of the helping them for real. Because of the generosity of our audience, VPP raised generosity of our audience, VPP raised generosity of our audience, VPP raised enough support to host a Bible summer enough support to host a Bible summer enough support to host a Bible summer camp for the children of Tabete. We saw camp for the children of Tabete. We saw camp for the children of Tabete. We saw pictures from that camp. It's an amazing pictures from that camp. It's an amazing pictures from that camp. It's an amazing site and we're really proud to be part

site and we're really proud to be part site and we're really proud to be part of it. This work makes a real difference of it. This work makes a real difference of it. This work makes a real difference in the lives of good people, but it's in the lives of good people, but it's in the lives of good people, but it's not possible without support from people not possible without support from people not possible without support from people like you. A gift of just $33 provides a like you. A gift of just $33 provides a like you. A gift of just $33 provides a day of protection and support for day of protection and support for day of protection and support for vulnerable Christians in the West Bank. vulnerable Christians in the West Bank. vulnerable Christians in the West Bank. A monthly gift of $83 helps sustain that A monthly gift of $83 helps sustain that A monthly gift of $83 helps sustain that protection all month long. We hope you protection all month long. We hope you protection all month long. We hope you will visit save westbankchristians.com will visit save westbankchristians.com will visit save westbankchristians.com and stand with Christians in the Holy and stand with Christians in the Holy and stand with Christians in the Holy Land, the place where Christianity Land, the place where Christianity Land, the place where Christianity began, the land that Jesus walked. began, the land that Jesus walked. began, the land that Jesus walked. That's save westbankchristians.com. That's save westbankchristians.com. That's save westbankchristians.com. Thanks. Um, I also think it's Thanks. Um, I also think it's Thanks. Um, I also think it's interesting that the president ran on interesting that the president ran on interesting that the president ran on explicitly ran on a promise to end the explicitly ran on a promise to end the explicitly ran on a promise to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, which we war between Russia and Ukraine, which we war between Russia and Ukraine, which we were then saying was between Russia and were then saying was between Russia and were then saying was between Russia and Ukraine. It's not, but whatever. He Ukraine. It's not, but whatever. He Ukraine. It's not, but whatever. He said, "I'm going to fix this. I can fix said, "I'm going to fix this. I can fix said, "I'm going to fix this. I can fix this." this." this." >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> And he did. So why >> And he did. So why >> And he did. So why >> why didn't he fix it? >> why didn't he fix it? >> why didn't he fix it? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Well, first of all, it was laughable to >> Well, first of all, it was laughable to >> Well, first of all, it was laughable to think, you know, he was saying they came think, you know, he was saying they came think, you know, he was saying they came out, I can solve it in 24 hours. And out, I can solve it in 24 hours. And out, I can solve it in 24 hours. And this is just part of, you know, the this is just part of, you know, the this is just part of, you know, the Trump uh mystique, this that he's this Trump uh mystique, this that he's this Trump uh mystique, this that he's this magical person with these amazing dealm magical person with these amazing dealm magical person with these amazing dealm qualities. And I fully concede the guy qualities. And I fully concede the guy qualities. And I fully concede the guy is an absolute genius at persuading is an absolute genius at persuading is an absolute genius at persuading people of things that are not true.

people of things that are not true. people of things that are not true. There was no evidence of this from his There was no evidence of this from his There was no evidence of this from his business career and there was no business career and there was no business career and there was no evidence of this from his political evidence of this from his political evidence of this from his political career that he was this sort of master career that he was this sort of master career that he was this sort of master manipulator, master diplomat who could manipulator, master diplomat who could manipulator, master diplomat who could pull these things off. So maybe you pull these things off. So maybe you pull these things off. So maybe you could get a peace deal in Ukraine, but could get a peace deal in Ukraine, but could get a peace deal in Ukraine, but it wasn't going to be 24 hours because it wasn't going to be 24 hours because it wasn't going to be 24 hours because there are really serious issues here and there are really serious issues here and there are really serious issues here and really difficult problems to resolve and really difficult problems to resolve and really difficult problems to resolve and there's lots of stakeholders and lots of there's lots of stakeholders and lots of there's lots of stakeholders and lots of parties in there. And getting them all parties in there. And getting them all parties in there. And getting them all to agree when they're as far apart as to agree when they're as far apart as to agree when they're as far apart as they are was never going to be easy. they are was never going to be easy. they are was never going to be easy. It's possible if Trump had put a really It's possible if Trump had put a really It's possible if Trump had put a really good team together and put a si good team together and put a si good team together and put a si sophisticated plan in place to pressure sophisticated plan in place to pressure sophisticated plan in place to pressure both sides, get the Ukrainians to back both sides, get the Ukrainians to back both sides, get the Ukrainians to back off some of the things they wanted, get off some of the things they wanted, get off some of the things they wanted, get the Russians to back off some of what the Russians to back off some of what the Russians to back off some of what they were doing. You might have been they were doing. You might have been they were doing. You might have been able to pressure them to a deal, but you able to pressure them to a deal, but you able to pressure them to a deal, but you were never going to be able to do this were never going to be able to do this were never going to be able to do this by sending Steve Whit and Jared Kushner by sending Steve Whit and Jared Kushner by sending Steve Whit and Jared Kushner off to talk to Putin and think you could off to talk to Putin and think you could off to talk to Putin and think you could get a deal that way. you were never get a deal that way. you were never get a deal that way. you were never going to do this by getting Zalinsky going to do this by getting Zalinsky going to do this by getting Zalinsky into the Oval Office and sort of putting into the Oval Office and sort of putting into the Oval Office and sort of putting a gun to his head saying you have to a gun to his head saying you have to a gun to his head saying you have to concede. It was never going to be that concede. It was never going to be that concede. It was never going to be that easy. Zullinsky wasn't in a position to easy. Zullinsky wasn't in a position to easy. Zullinsky wasn't in a position to do that. If he had gone back to Kev and do that. If he had gone back to Kev and do that. If he had gone back to Kev and said, said, said, >> "We're going to have to run up the white >> "We're going to have to run up the white >> "We're going to have to run up the white flag and cut a deal." He would have been flag and cut a deal." He would have been flag and cut a deal." He would have been deposed. He would have been removed from deposed. He would have been removed from deposed. He would have been removed from power. The Ukrainians would not have power. The Ukrainians would not have power. The Ukrainians would not have gone along with that, you know. So, it gone along with that, you know. So, it gone along with that, you know. So, it was completely unrealistic for Trump to was completely unrealistic for Trump to was completely unrealistic for Trump to promise any such deal. And if that's promise any such deal. And if that's promise any such deal. And if that's what he wanted to do, he was going to what he wanted to do, he was going to what he wanted to do, he was going to have to get serious, put the right have to get serious, put the right have to get serious, put the right people in charge, and be somewhat more

people in charge, and be somewhat more people in charge, and be somewhat more patient than he's able to be. patient than he's able to be. patient than he's able to be. >> What would it take to resolve it now? >> What would it take to resolve it now? >> What would it take to resolve it now? >> Um, I don't know. Uh, what I my take on >> Um, I don't know. Uh, what I my take on >> Um, I don't know. Uh, what I my take on where we are now is, um, and there are where we are now is, um, and there are where we are now is, um, and there are some parallels, by the way, with the war some parallels, by the way, with the war some parallels, by the way, with the war in Iran, which we may get to. Uh, we're in Iran, which we may get to. Uh, we're in Iran, which we may get to. Uh, we're in what, you know, I would call a in what, you know, I would call a in what, you know, I would call a hurting stalemate. uh the uh Ukraine is hurting stalemate. uh the uh Ukraine is hurting stalemate. uh the uh Ukraine is suffering uh both from missile strikes suffering uh both from missile strikes suffering uh both from missile strikes and continued losses along the front and and continued losses along the front and and continued losses along the front and Russia is suffering from losses along Russia is suffering from losses along Russia is suffering from losses along the front and the Ukrainian retaliation the front and the Ukrainian retaliation the front and the Ukrainian retaliation and both of them are I think paying a and both of them are I think paying a and both of them are I think paying a substantial price. My guess is that the substantial price. My guess is that the substantial price. My guess is that the price is worse for the Ukrainians and price is worse for the Ukrainians and price is worse for the Ukrainians and Russia's continuing to make at very high Russia's continuing to make at very high Russia's continuing to make at very high cost some incremental advances in the cost some incremental advances in the cost some incremental advances in the Donbos. Donbos. Donbos. um um um when you're in a hurting stalemate, both when you're in a hurting stalemate, both when you're in a hurting stalemate, both sides are basically betting that they sides are basically betting that they sides are basically betting that they can last longer, that they're going to can last longer, that they're going to can last longer, that they're going to outweight the other side. And I think outweight the other side. And I think outweight the other side. And I think from a macro point of view, you'd say, from a macro point of view, you'd say, from a macro point of view, you'd say, well, Russia's probably got the well, Russia's probably got the well, Russia's probably got the advantage there because his resources advantage there because his resources advantage there because his resources are still substantially, much bigger are still substantially, much bigger are still substantially, much bigger population, etc.

population, etc. population, etc. >> But you don't know. I mean, nationalism >> But you don't know. I mean, nationalism >> But you don't know. I mean, nationalism is a very powerful force. I think the is a very powerful force. I think the is a very powerful force. I think the Ukrainians care more about fighting for Ukrainians care more about fighting for Ukrainians care more about fighting for what they regard as their country than what they regard as their country than what they regard as their country than the Russians care about taking the next the Russians care about taking the next the Russians care about taking the next 50 kilometers of Donbas. Uh Putin may 50 kilometers of Donbas. Uh Putin may 50 kilometers of Donbas. Uh Putin may care, but I'm not sure the Russian care, but I'm not sure the Russian care, but I'm not sure the Russian population does. So, if it were up to population does. So, if it were up to population does. So, if it were up to me, and I assure you it's not, um I me, and I assure you it's not, um I me, and I assure you it's not, um I think the United States should be think the United States should be think the United States should be continuing to back Ukraine while saying continuing to back Ukraine while saying continuing to back Ukraine while saying that there are real limits to what we're that there are real limits to what we're that there are real limits to what we're willing to support. you know, uh, you willing to support. you know, uh, you willing to support. you know, uh, you have to explain to the Ukrainians, no, have to explain to the Ukrainians, no, have to explain to the Ukrainians, no, you're not going to get Crimea back. Uh, you're not going to get Crimea back. Uh, you're not going to get Crimea back. Uh, no, you're not going to get, uh, most of no, you're not going to get, uh, most of no, you're not going to get, uh, most of the Donbos back, at least not anytime the Donbos back, at least not anytime the Donbos back, at least not anytime soon. Maybe in the fullness of time. soon. Maybe in the fullness of time. soon. Maybe in the fullness of time. Maybe some point, but the you don't have Maybe some point, but the you don't have Maybe some point, but the you don't have the military capabilities of pushing the military capabilities of pushing the military capabilities of pushing Russia out. And we're not going to give Russia out. And we're not going to give Russia out. And we're not going to give them to you. Even if we gave you more them to you. Even if we gave you more them to you. Even if we gave you more stuff, you wouldn't be able to do it for stuff, you wouldn't be able to do it for stuff, you wouldn't be able to do it for a variety of reasons. and the risks of a variety of reasons. and the risks of a variety of reasons. and the risks of doing that are too great for us. So, but doing that are too great for us. So, but doing that are too great for us. So, but I would keep uh Ukraine in the game and I would keep uh Ukraine in the game and I would keep uh Ukraine in the game and then I would also go to the Russ and then I would also go to the Russ and then I would also go to the Russ and that's the leverage you have with Russia that's the leverage you have with Russia that's the leverage you have with Russia that you can continue to help Ukraine.

that you can continue to help Ukraine. that you can continue to help Ukraine. Um, and the leverage you have with uh Um, and the leverage you have with uh Um, and the leverage you have with uh Ukraine is that they're going to have to Ukraine is that they're going to have to Ukraine is that they're going to have to lower their ambitions. And the Russians lower their ambitions. And the Russians lower their ambitions. And the Russians have to get some of what they want to, have to get some of what they want to, have to get some of what they want to, and that's the part that sticks in the and that's the part that sticks in the and that's the part that sticks in the western craw. And my terms would be western craw. And my terms would be western craw. And my terms would be roughly that Ukraine has to become a roughly that Ukraine has to become a roughly that Ukraine has to become a neutral country. It's not going to join neutral country. It's not going to join neutral country. It's not going to join NATO. It it drops any insistence on NATO. It it drops any insistence on NATO. It it drops any insistence on that. The trickiest part uh and that's I that. The trickiest part uh and that's I that. The trickiest part uh and that's I think again was the precipitating cause think again was the precipitating cause think again was the precipitating cause was the belief that Ukraine was drifting was the belief that Ukraine was drifting was the belief that Ukraine was drifting into NATO over time. Uh into NATO over time. Uh into NATO over time. Uh >> and that's the core Russian demand from >> and that's the core Russian demand from >> and that's the core Russian demand from what I can tell. what I can tell. what I can tell. >> I think that's the most important thing. >> I think that's the most important thing. >> I think that's the most important thing. It's not the only thing. There's some It's not the only thing. There's some It's not the only thing. There's some other issues about rights of minorities other issues about rights of minorities other issues about rights of minorities and in Russia and those can I think be and in Russia and those can I think be and in Russia and those can I think be be addressed. The trickiest part um at be addressed. The trickiest part um at be addressed. The trickiest part um at least as I look at this is what's the least as I look at this is what's the least as I look at this is what's the security arrangement going forward for security arrangement going forward for security arrangement going forward for Ukraine. Um it's not acceptable to Ukraine. Um it's not acceptable to Ukraine. Um it's not acceptable to Ukraine understandably to be disarmed or Ukraine understandably to be disarmed or Ukraine understandably to be disarmed or to be allowed only a minimal amount of to be allowed only a minimal amount of to be allowed only a minimal amount of defense forces. It's going to be a defense forces. It's going to be a defense forces. It's going to be a sovereign country. It should be able to sovereign country. It should be able to sovereign country. It should be able to defend itself as well. So if NATO defend itself as well. So if NATO defend itself as well. So if NATO membership is off the table, that's membership is off the table, that's membership is off the table, that's gone. It's going to be a neutral gone. It's going to be a neutral gone. It's going to be a neutral country. It's going to have a military.

country. It's going to have a military. country. It's going to have a military. Can it buy weapons from other countries? Can it buy weapons from other countries? Can it buy weapons from other countries? I would think so. As a sovereign nation, I would think so. As a sovereign nation, I would think so. As a sovereign nation, um, if it buys weapons, say, from um, if it buys weapons, say, from um, if it buys weapons, say, from Sweden, um, can the Swedes send some Sweden, um, can the Swedes send some Sweden, um, can the Swedes send some people to help train the Ukrainians on people to help train the Ukrainians on people to help train the Ukrainians on how to use those weapons? How many? How how to use those weapons? How many? How how to use those weapons? How many? How long can they stay? long can they stay? long can they stay? >> And what kind of weapons? >> And what kind of weapons? >> And what kind of weapons? >> And what kind of weapons maybe? So, >> And what kind of weapons maybe? So, >> And what kind of weapons maybe? So, and that and of course there's a point and that and of course there's a point and that and of course there's a point at which that starts to look like you're at which that starts to look like you're at which that starts to look like you're becoming a de facto member of NATO, even becoming a de facto member of NATO, even becoming a de facto member of NATO, even if you're not a formal member. If it if you're not a formal member. If it if you're not a formal member. If it gets too far, that's a very tricky gets too far, that's a very tricky gets too far, that's a very tricky negotiation. So zero is not acceptable negotiation. So zero is not acceptable negotiation. So zero is not acceptable to Ukraine and too much wouldn't be to Ukraine and too much wouldn't be to Ukraine and too much wouldn't be acceptable to Russia and you start the acceptable to Russia and you start the acceptable to Russia and you start the war again. Right? That's a long and war again. Right? That's a long and war again. Right? That's a long and complicated negotiation. Another reason complicated negotiation. Another reason complicated negotiation. Another reason why Trump was blowing smoke when he said why Trump was blowing smoke when he said why Trump was blowing smoke when he said he could end this thing. There's some he could end this thing. There's some he could end this thing. There's some serious security issues that have to be serious security issues that have to be serious security issues that have to be worked out there and you'd need really worked out there and you'd need really worked out there and you'd need really good people taking some time and care to good people taking some time and care to good people taking some time and care to do that kind of a negotiation. in order do that kind of a negotiation. in order do that kind of a negotiation. in order to make it work and to have it be to make it work and to have it be to make it work and to have it be something where it might last.

something where it might last. something where it might last. >> If you speak to European politicians or >> If you speak to European politicians or >> If you speak to European politicians or well educated Europeans, a lot of them, well educated Europeans, a lot of them, well educated Europeans, a lot of them, you know, in Spain, Germany, you know, in Spain, Germany, you know, in Spain, Germany, you certainly UK, they seem convinced you certainly UK, they seem convinced you certainly UK, they seem convinced that Russia has like plans to invade that Russia has like plans to invade that Russia has like plans to invade them. them. them. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> From my perspective, that's insane. But >> From my perspective, that's insane. But >> From my perspective, that's insane. But I I want to run it by you. I I want to run it by you. I I want to run it by you. >> Yeah. No, I think that's uh I'm not sure >> Yeah. No, I think that's uh I'm not sure >> Yeah. No, I think that's uh I'm not sure I'd use the word insane, but I think I'd use the word insane, but I think I'd use the word insane, but I think it's completely wrong. it's completely wrong. it's completely wrong. >> It's so implausible. They can't they >> It's so implausible. They can't they >> It's so implausible. They can't they can't they can't take all of Donbas. So can't they can't take all of Donbas. So can't they can't take all of Donbas. So like like like >> Yeah, exactly. The u the idea that >> Yeah, exactly. The u the idea that >> Yeah, exactly. The u the idea that Russia has had so much trouble dealing Russia has had so much trouble dealing Russia has had so much trouble dealing just with Ukraine is going to launch just with Ukraine is going to launch just with Ukraine is going to launch some kind of major assault on on Europe. some kind of major assault on on Europe. some kind of major assault on on Europe. Uh there's no incentive for them to do Uh there's no incentive for them to do Uh there's no incentive for them to do so. And I think there's no possibility so. And I think there's no possibility so. And I think there's no possibility they could pull that off. they could pull that off. they could pull that off. >> Europeans seem to really think that >> Europeans seem to really think that >> Europeans seem to really think that though. Well, I do think there's a though. Well, I do think there's a though. Well, I do think there's a history uh that people still to some history uh that people still to some history uh that people still to some degree uh invoke. I think that they are degree uh invoke. I think that they are degree uh invoke. I think that they are legitimately concerned by let's call it legitimately concerned by let's call it legitimately concerned by let's call it gray area hybrid warfare things that gray area hybrid warfare things that gray area hybrid warfare things that Russia has been doing for a variety of Russia has been doing for a variety of Russia has been doing for a variety of reasons for quite some time and are, you reasons for quite some time and are, you reasons for quite some time and are, you know, violation of all sorts of know, violation of all sorts of know, violation of all sorts of international legal rules and a international legal rules and a international legal rules and a worrisome indication of worrisome indication of worrisome indication of malign intent. Let's call it call it malign intent. Let's call it call it malign intent. Let's call it call it that way. So if I were Swedish, if I that way. So if I were Swedish, if I that way. So if I were Swedish, if I were in the Baltic states and I'm seeing were in the Baltic states and I'm seeing were in the Baltic states and I'm seeing this kind of interference on a constant this kind of interference on a constant this kind of interference on a constant basis, if I am observing some of the basis, if I am observing some of the basis, if I am observing some of the sabotage, I think credibly linked to

sabotage, I think credibly linked to sabotage, I think credibly linked to Russian intelligence that have taken Russian intelligence that have taken Russian intelligence that have taken place in other parts of Europe, I would place in other parts of Europe, I would place in other parts of Europe, I would say, how can you expect us to trust you say, how can you expect us to trust you say, how can you expect us to trust you and not worry about what you might try and not worry about what you might try and not worry about what you might try to do if you keep doing this sort of to do if you keep doing this sort of to do if you keep doing this sort of stuff? We're not doing that back in stuff? We're not doing that back in stuff? We're not doing that back in Russia. We're not uh setting fire to Russia. We're not uh setting fire to Russia. We're not uh setting fire to things in uh you know uh St. Petersburg. things in uh you know uh St. Petersburg. things in uh you know uh St. Petersburg. So why are you doing that uh to us? So why are you doing that uh to us? So why are you doing that uh to us? >> Well, they are setting things on fire in >> Well, they are setting things on fire in >> Well, they are setting things on fire in St. Petersburg. St. Petersburg. St. Petersburg. >> Not the Ukrainians are setting fire on >> Not the Ukrainians are setting fire on >> Not the Ukrainians are setting fire on things in the things in the things in the >> NATO drones. >> NATO drones. >> NATO drones. Yeah. I mean the the drones that just Yeah. I mean the the drones that just Yeah. I mean the the drones that just hit hit hit >> they >> they >> they >> a school in Russia were made in Germany. >> a school in Russia were made in Germany. >> a school in Russia were made in Germany. >> Okay. Made but they were not fired by >> Okay. Made but they were not fired by >> Okay. Made but they were not fired by Germans. Germans. Germans. >> No, but I mean the whole the whole it's >> No, but I mean the whole the whole it's >> No, but I mean the whole the whole it's targeted by the CIA and it's it's run by targeted by the CIA and it's it's run by targeted by the CIA and it's it's run by other countries. Yeah. other countries. Yeah. other countries. Yeah. >> Okay. But but again if country A sells to country B and country country A sells to country B and country B then shoots it there is some B then shoots it there is some B then shoots it there is some responsibility there but I would put the responsibility there but I would put the responsibility there but I would put the principal blame on country B that you principal blame on country B that you principal blame on country B that you know is actually firing it. Um in any know is actually firing it. Um in any know is actually firing it. Um in any event the there are reasons for uh event the there are reasons for uh event the there are reasons for uh Europeans I think to be concerned about Europeans I think to be concerned about Europeans I think to be concerned about Russian intentions and most people in Russian intentions and most people in Russian intentions and most people in the military uh business do a lot of the military uh business do a lot of the military uh business do a lot of worst case planning. If if you saw I worst case planning. If if you saw I worst case planning. If if you saw I mean for example I didn't think Putin mean for example I didn't think Putin mean for example I didn't think Putin was going to invade Ukraine the way he was going to invade Ukraine the way he was going to invade Ukraine the way he didn't cuz I thought it was going to be didn't cuz I thought it was going to be didn't cuz I thought it was going to be the kind of disaster he's ended up with the kind of disaster he's ended up with the kind of disaster he's ended up with for Russia by the way. Um so I didn't

for Russia by the way. Um so I didn't for Russia by the way. Um so I didn't think he would do it. So I think it'd be think he would do it. So I think it'd be think he would do it. So I think it'd be crazy for him to launch an assault on crazy for him to launch an assault on crazy for him to launch an assault on NATO countries. I think it would fail. NATO countries. I think it would fail. NATO countries. I think it would fail. But can I be totally confident that he But can I be totally confident that he But can I be totally confident that he wouldn't do something that stupid? I'd wouldn't do something that stupid? I'd wouldn't do something that stupid? I'd at least think about it. And if I were a at least think about it. And if I were a at least think about it. And if I were a European, I would start hedging against European, I would start hedging against European, I would start hedging against the possibility while also asking myself the possibility while also asking myself the possibility while also asking myself with some frequency over time, what can with some frequency over time, what can with some frequency over time, what can we do to try and improve this situation? we do to try and improve this situation? we do to try and improve this situation? Because it's it gets back to our first Because it's it gets back to our first Because it's it gets back to our first question. Where's the world headed? It's question. Where's the world headed? It's question. Where's the world headed? It's not good to have this many points of not good to have this many points of not good to have this many points of friction, this many points of conflict friction, this many points of conflict friction, this many points of conflict between major power centers. And if we between major power centers. And if we between major power centers. And if we can resolve as many of them as possible can resolve as many of them as possible can resolve as many of them as possible or at least lower temperature in a or at least lower temperature in a or at least lower temperature in a useful way without sacrificing our useful way without sacrificing our useful way without sacrificing our security, we should explore that. Well, security, we should explore that. Well, security, we should explore that. Well, you probably have heard about the Van you probably have heard about the Van you probably have heard about the Van Man company's amazing toothpaste. By the Man company's amazing toothpaste. By the Man company's amazing toothpaste. By the thousands, Americans are ditching thousands, Americans are ditching thousands, Americans are ditching traditional toothpaste in favor of Van traditional toothpaste in favor of Van traditional toothpaste in favor of Van Man. The switch is like pivoting your Man. The switch is like pivoting your Man. The switch is like pivoting your diet from candy packed with red dye diet from candy packed with red dye diet from candy packed with red dye number 40 to organic strawberries. It is number 40 to organic strawberries. It is number 40 to organic strawberries. It is always better to stick with real always better to stick with real always better to stick with real ingredients. Today's big news is that ingredients. Today's big news is that ingredients. Today's big news is that Vanman makes more than healthy Vanman makes more than healthy Vanman makes more than healthy toothpaste. has launched a body wash toothpaste. has launched a body wash toothpaste. has launched a body wash made from the finest oils. Available in made from the finest oils. Available in made from the finest oils. Available in vanilla, grapefruit, and no scent at vanilla, grapefruit, and no scent at vanilla, grapefruit, and no scent at all. Fan man's body wash can optimize all. Fan man's body wash can optimize all. Fan man's body wash can optimize your shower experience without all the your shower experience without all the your shower experience without all the sketchy chemicals that well, who knows sketchy chemicals that well, who knows sketchy chemicals that well, who knows what they're doing to you. Other body what they're doing to you. Other body what they're doing to you. Other body washes cannot say the same. Their washes cannot say the same. Their washes cannot say the same. Their ingredient labels would shock you if you ingredient labels would shock you if you ingredient labels would shock you if you could pronounce them. You can't. Some of could pronounce them. You can't. Some of could pronounce them. You can't. Some of this stuff is very bad for you. One of

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the war with Iran resolved and when? the war with Iran resolved and when? Uh well, you know, if if I wish I knew. Uh well, you know, if if I wish I knew. Uh well, you know, if if I wish I knew. Um I don't I don't see a solution to Um I don't I don't see a solution to Um I don't I don't see a solution to that that doesn't ultimately involve a that that doesn't ultimately involve a that that doesn't ultimately involve a tacit admission of on the United States tacit admission of on the United States tacit admission of on the United States that this was a huge mistake. Uh we made that this was a huge mistake. Uh we made that this was a huge mistake. Uh we made a mistake. We shouldn't have done it. a mistake. We shouldn't have done it. a mistake. We shouldn't have done it. And you don't make mistakes without And you don't make mistakes without And you don't make mistakes without paying a price for it. Uh and fair and paying a price for it. Uh and fair and paying a price for it. Uh and fair and obviously, you know, the administration obviously, you know, the administration obviously, you know, the administration will spin whatever end to the war is as will spin whatever end to the war is as will spin whatever end to the war is as a victory of some kind. Uh but it's not a victory of some kind. Uh but it's not a victory of some kind. Uh but it's not it's it's likely to be a defeat. I it's it's likely to be a defeat. I it's it's likely to be a defeat. I believe they are still flailing around believe they are still flailing around believe they are still flailing around for some formula that will put for some formula that will put for some formula that will put sufficient pressure on Iran that Iran sufficient pressure on Iran that Iran sufficient pressure on Iran that Iran will then give them something so big and will then give them something so big and will then give them something so big and tangible they can claim, you know, this tangible they can claim, you know, this tangible they can claim, you know, this is our this is our great victory. And I is our this is our great victory. And I is our this is our great victory. And I don't think they're going to get that. don't think they're going to get that. don't think they're going to get that. Um and the central problem is is is Um and the central problem is is is Um and the central problem is is is political. political. political. The motivation of the two sides are The motivation of the two sides are The motivation of the two sides are totally different. This was a war of totally different. This was a war of totally different. This was a war of choice for the United States. There was choice for the United States. There was choice for the United States. There was no imminent need to do this. This was no imminent need to do this. This was no imminent need to do this. This was not a vital interest we were uh not a vital interest we were uh not a vital interest we were uh defending. It's one of the reasons why defending. It's one of the reasons why defending. It's one of the reasons why Trump was willing to do a very short, Trump was willing to do a very short, Trump was willing to do a very short, quick, cheap war. Why nobody seriously quick, cheap war. Why nobody seriously quick, cheap war. Why nobody seriously contemplated sending ground troops to contemplated sending ground troops to contemplated sending ground troops to invade it. anything that would be really invade it. anything that would be really invade it. anything that would be really uh really expensive because it wasn't a uh really expensive because it wasn't a uh really expensive because it wasn't a vital interest. Well, optional war for vital interest. Well, optional war for vital interest. Well, optional war for the Iranian regime, right? This is a war the Iranian regime, right? This is a war the Iranian regime, right? This is a war of survival. This is absolutely

of survival. This is absolutely of survival. This is absolutely existential. Uh because our stated goal existential. Uh because our stated goal existential. Uh because our stated goal at the very beginning was to topple at the very beginning was to topple at the very beginning was to topple them. We're trying to get rid of them. them. We're trying to get rid of them. them. We're trying to get rid of them. That's the That's the That's the >> He demanded quote unconditional >> He demanded quote unconditional >> He demanded quote unconditional surrender in the first week. surrender in the first week. surrender in the first week. >> Right. So their resolve, their >> Right. So their resolve, their >> Right. So their resolve, their willingness to suffer in order to win or willingness to suffer in order to win or willingness to suffer in order to win or at least come out of this uh intact is at least come out of this uh intact is at least come out of this uh intact is much greater than ours. Right? And I much greater than ours. Right? And I much greater than ours. Right? And I think you see that in the fact that think you see that in the fact that think you see that in the fact that they're willing to do all sorts of they're willing to do all sorts of they're willing to do all sorts of things in including things that involve things in including things that involve things in including things that involve real price for the Iranian people and real price for the Iranian people and real price for the Iranian people and for themselves, risks to the regime, for themselves, risks to the regime, for themselves, risks to the regime, risks to the leaders of the regime risks to the leaders of the regime risks to the leaders of the regime because for them this is an absolutely because for them this is an absolutely because for them this is an absolutely existential uh existential affair and existential uh existential affair and existential uh existential affair and it's not for us. And that's the central it's not for us. And that's the central it's not for us. And that's the central yes yes yes >> central problem that we face here. And >> central problem that we face here. And >> central problem that we face here. And secondly, compounding that is the fact secondly, compounding that is the fact secondly, compounding that is the fact it turned out they had real options. it turned out they had real options. it turned out they had real options. They're much weaker than us. They have They're much weaker than us. They have They're much weaker than us. They have much less global influence than the much less global influence than the much less global influence than the United States. We've done enormous United States. We've done enormous United States. We've done enormous amounts of damage to them. We've amounts of damage to them. We've amounts of damage to them. We've significantly hurt their military significantly hurt their military significantly hurt their military capability the way uh Secretary of capability the way uh Secretary of capability the way uh Secretary of Defense Hegath likes to boast all the Defense Hegath likes to boast all the Defense Hegath likes to boast all the time. But the fact is they could close time. But the fact is they could close time. But the fact is they could close the straight of Hormuse or effectively the straight of Hormuse or effectively the straight of Hormuse or effectively close it and they could cause close it and they could cause close it and they could cause significant damage to American military significant damage to American military significant damage to American military facilities in the region and to other facilities in the region and to other facilities in the region and to other American partners in the region. in the American partners in the region. in the American partners in the region. in the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, uh Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, uh Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, uh conceivably also even Israel as well. So conceivably also even Israel as well. So conceivably also even Israel as well. So suddenly they have escalatory potential.

suddenly they have escalatory potential. suddenly they have escalatory potential. And when you're dealing with an And when you're dealing with an And when you're dealing with an adversary who cares more than you do, is adversary who cares more than you do, is adversary who cares more than you do, is willing to bear greater costs, run willing to bear greater costs, run willing to bear greater costs, run greater risks than you are, you have to greater risks than you are, you have to greater risks than you are, you have to worry that they might start exercising worry that they might start exercising worry that they might start exercising some of those options. And so every time some of those options. And so every time some of those options. And so every time Trump has threatened them, the Iranians Trump has threatened them, the Iranians Trump has threatened them, the Iranians can basically say, you know, you do this can basically say, you know, you do this can basically say, you know, you do this to us, we'll do something back to your to us, we'll do something back to your to us, we'll do something back to your side, and you won't like it. and each side, and you won't like it. and each side, and you won't like it. and each time so far Trump has backed off. I'm time so far Trump has backed off. I'm time so far Trump has backed off. I'm glad he did because the consequences of glad he did because the consequences of glad he did because the consequences of escalating this further would be quite escalating this further would be quite escalating this further would be quite severe. So, severe. So, severe. So, you know, we had a deal of sorts in you know, we had a deal of sorts in you know, we had a deal of sorts in June, the memorandum of understanding. June, the memorandum of understanding. June, the memorandum of understanding. Um, it was badly constructed, badly Um, it was badly constructed, badly Um, it was badly constructed, badly negotiated by some people who didn't negotiated by some people who didn't negotiated by some people who didn't know what they were doing, but it was know what they were doing, but it was know what they were doing, but it was basically a surrender. It was the United basically a surrender. It was the United basically a surrender. It was the United States saying, "This was a mistake. We States saying, "This was a mistake. We States saying, "This was a mistake. We shouldn't have done it." um and we're shouldn't have done it." um and we're shouldn't have done it." um and we're going to agree to a set of terms that going to agree to a set of terms that going to agree to a set of terms that are actually pretty favorable to you. are actually pretty favorable to you. are actually pretty favorable to you. Trump is immediately pillaried, right, Trump is immediately pillaried, right, Trump is immediately pillaried, right, by the supporters of the war and some by the supporters of the war and some by the supporters of the war and some others for negotiating a bad deal. And others for negotiating a bad deal. And others for negotiating a bad deal. And the United States pretty quickly begins the United States pretty quickly begins the United States pretty quickly begins to try and skirt around it in various to try and skirt around it in various to try and skirt around it in various ways over access in the straight of ways over access in the straight of ways over access in the straight of Hormuz. um and the Iranians see what Hormuz. um and the Iranians see what Hormuz. um and the Iranians see what he's doing and they go back to war he's doing and they go back to war he's doing and they go back to war essentially that he's trying to evade essentially that he's trying to evade essentially that he's trying to evade the terms as they understood them in the the terms as they understood them in the the terms as they understood them in the in the agreement. Um there's one final in the agreement. Um there's one final in the agreement. Um there's one final point I need to make here though. I said point I need to make here though. I said point I need to make here though. I said a while back that there's zero trust a while back that there's zero trust a while back that there's zero trust between the United States and Iran at

between the United States and Iran at between the United States and Iran at this point and therefore a peace this point and therefore a peace this point and therefore a peace arrangement with someone you don't trust arrangement with someone you don't trust arrangement with someone you don't trust is really hard to pull off because is really hard to pull off because is really hard to pull off because you're always assuming they're going to you're always assuming they're going to you're always assuming they're going to >> uh they're going to reig on it. And >> uh they're going to reig on it. And >> uh they're going to reig on it. And that's especially true for the Iranians. that's especially true for the Iranians. that's especially true for the Iranians. What the Iranians have to worry about is What the Iranians have to worry about is What the Iranians have to worry about is what, you know, what the Israelis would what, you know, what the Israelis would what, you know, what the Israelis would call the mowing the grass phenomenon call the mowing the grass phenomenon call the mowing the grass phenomenon that all right, we we bombed Iran last that all right, we we bombed Iran last that all right, we we bombed Iran last summer, then we started a war with them summer, then we started a war with them summer, then we started a war with them in 2026, in 2026, in 2026, >> so we get a deal of some kind and we >> so we get a deal of some kind and we >> so we get a deal of some kind and we agreed to some negotiations on their agreed to some negotiations on their agreed to some negotiations on their nuclear uh stuff. Um, what's to stop the nuclear uh stuff. Um, what's to stop the nuclear uh stuff. Um, what's to stop the United States from bringing its ships United States from bringing its ships United States from bringing its ships home, refitting them, rearming them, home, refitting them, rearming them, home, refitting them, rearming them, sending them back, and starting this up sending them back, and starting this up sending them back, and starting this up again in a year? If you're the Iranians, again in a year? If you're the Iranians, again in a year? If you're the Iranians, you would think long and hard about you would think long and hard about you would think long and hard about this. this. this. >> Yes, you would. >> Yes, you would. >> Yes, you would. >> How does How do we How do we agree to >> How does How do we How do we agree to >> How does How do we How do we agree to end a war with the United States and be end a war with the United States and be end a war with the United States and be confident that the United States won't confident that the United States won't confident that the United States won't start this again at some convenient start this again at some convenient start this again at some convenient point down the road? And my reasoning is point down the road? And my reasoning is point down the road? And my reasoning is if I were Iran, I'd be saying I need to if I were Iran, I'd be saying I need to if I were Iran, I'd be saying I need to make sure the United States pays a make sure the United States pays a make sure the United States pays a significantly large price for this that significantly large price for this that significantly large price for this that they learn not to do it again. I can't they learn not to do it again. I can't they learn not to do it again. I can't trust their promises, but I can hope trust their promises, but I can hope trust their promises, but I can hope that I can trust that they might be able that I can trust that they might be able that I can trust that they might be able to learn that this was a huge mistake.

to learn that this was a huge mistake. to learn that this was a huge mistake. And that means an incentive to actually And that means an incentive to actually And that means an incentive to actually make sure that, you know, we all pay a make sure that, you know, we all pay a make sure that, you know, we all pay a sufficiently large price that the next sufficiently large price that the next sufficiently large price that the next president, Democratic or Republican, or president, Democratic or Republican, or president, Democratic or Republican, or Trump in his last term, decides that Trump in his last term, decides that Trump in his last term, decides that starting something like this again is a starting something like this again is a starting something like this again is a bad idea. bad idea. bad idea. >> All of those things, I think, is >> All of those things, I think, is >> All of those things, I think, is extremely difficult to solve. extremely difficult to solve. extremely difficult to solve. >> And and the Iranians, if you watch their >> And and the Iranians, if you watch their >> And and the Iranians, if you watch their media, are saying that, right? I mean, media, are saying that, right? I mean, media, are saying that, right? I mean, they're saying that they they don't they they're saying that they they don't they they're saying that they they don't they don't trust that a peace agreement won't don't trust that a peace agreement won't don't trust that a peace agreement won't become just a pause. Well, remember we become just a pause. Well, remember we become just a pause. Well, remember we were negotiating with Iran on its were negotiating with Iran on its were negotiating with Iran on its nuclear program when the war started and nuclear program when the war started and nuclear program when the war started and here we have some negotiations their here we have some negotiations their here we have some negotiations their head of state. I do remember that. head of state. I do remember that. head of state. I do remember that. >> Exactly. You know, this is not exactly >> Exactly. You know, this is not exactly >> Exactly. You know, this is not exactly the way you instill confidence in your the way you instill confidence in your the way you instill confidence in your adversary that maybe diplomacy is the adversary that maybe diplomacy is the adversary that maybe diplomacy is the way to go here. way to go here. way to go here. >> This is what you do when your goal is >> This is what you do when your goal is >> This is what you do when your goal is unconditional surrender, unconditional surrender, unconditional surrender, >> right? >> right? >> right? >> But what happens when you can't achieve >> But what happens when you can't achieve >> But what happens when you can't achieve unconditional surrender? Where does that unconditional surrender? Where does that unconditional surrender? Where does that leave you? So, but my question to you is leave you? So, but my question to you is leave you? So, but my question to you is how does Iran provide those incentives how does Iran provide those incentives how does Iran provide those incentives to United States? Like how does it to United States? Like how does it to United States? Like how does it extract what kind of cost does it need extract what kind of cost does it need extract what kind of cost does it need to extract in order to get this not to to extract in order to get this not to to extract in order to get this not to happen again?

happen again? happen again? >> I I'm not sure. I mean, I think that um >> I I'm not sure. I mean, I think that um >> I I'm not sure. I mean, I think that um I don't know how the Iranians are are I don't know how the Iranians are are I don't know how the Iranians are are thinking about this, but certainly thinking about this, but certainly thinking about this, but certainly anything that imposes significant costs anything that imposes significant costs anything that imposes significant costs on the American economy, which of course on the American economy, which of course on the American economy, which of course we've already seen, um I think the we've already seen, um I think the we've already seen, um I think the Iranians would be delighted uh if the Iranians would be delighted uh if the Iranians would be delighted uh if the midterm elections, you know, go south. midterm elections, you know, go south. midterm elections, you know, go south. Uh from uh from Trump's point of view, Uh from uh from Trump's point of view, Uh from uh from Trump's point of view, they may do that for multiple reasons, they may do that for multiple reasons, they may do that for multiple reasons, of course, not just the Iran war. Um but of course, not just the Iran war. Um but of course, not just the Iran war. Um but that would be a lesson to future that would be a lesson to future that would be a lesson to future American presidents. don't do uh things American presidents. don't do uh things American presidents. don't do uh things like this. Obviously, the more pressure like this. Obviously, the more pressure like this. Obviously, the more pressure that is placed on the United States by that is placed on the United States by that is placed on the United States by others in the region, and we've seen others in the region, and we've seen others in the region, and we've seen that happen now on a number of that happen now on a number of that happen now on a number of occasions. Um that's again, all of this occasions. Um that's again, all of this occasions. Um that's again, all of this feeds back into the American political feeds back into the American political feeds back into the American political system and foreign policy machinery, you system and foreign policy machinery, you system and foreign policy machinery, you know, don't do this kind of thing again. know, don't do this kind of thing again. know, don't do this kind of thing again. One one final aspect to this again I've One one final aspect to this again I've One one final aspect to this again I've not thought long and hard about but not thought long and hard about but not thought long and hard about but >> I mean there is a danger on the Iranian >> I mean there is a danger on the Iranian >> I mean there is a danger on the Iranian side of overplaying their hand too.

side of overplaying their hand too. side of overplaying their hand too. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Um and one could make the argument that >> Um and one could make the argument that >> Um and one could make the argument that we have a we have a situation in the we have a we have a situation in the we have a we have a situation in the world today gets back to your first world today gets back to your first world today gets back to your first question where lots of countries are question where lots of countries are question where lots of countries are overplaying their hands overplaying their hands overplaying their hands >> trying for more than they're really uh >> trying for more than they're really uh >> trying for more than they're really uh going to be able to grab. Um, but the going to be able to grab. Um, but the going to be able to grab. Um, but the circumstances that allowed Iran to do circumstances that allowed Iran to do circumstances that allowed Iran to do what it did in response are likely to what it did in response are likely to what it did in response are likely to fade over time. The rest of the world is fade over time. The rest of the world is fade over time. The rest of the world is going to diversify away from fossil going to diversify away from fossil going to diversify away from fossil fuels. People are going to build more fuels. People are going to build more fuels. People are going to build more pipelines so they can get oil and gas pipelines so they can get oil and gas pipelines so they can get oil and gas out of the Middle East without using the out of the Middle East without using the out of the Middle East without using the straight of Hormuz. um we were already straight of Hormuz. um we were already straight of Hormuz. um we were already seeing people re-engineer energy markets seeing people re-engineer energy markets seeing people re-engineer energy markets in a variety of ways to try and and deal in a variety of ways to try and and deal in a variety of ways to try and and deal with this. So Iran's leverage here is I with this. So Iran's leverage here is I with this. So Iran's leverage here is I in my view likely to be less 5 years in my view likely to be less 5 years in my view likely to be less 5 years from now, 6 years from now. That doesn't from now, 6 years from now. That doesn't from now, 6 years from now. That doesn't mean they don't have the leverage now mean they don't have the leverage now mean they don't have the leverage now and I think they're using it. Uh but if and I think they're using it. Uh but if and I think they're using it. Uh but if I were Iran, I would be careful not to I were Iran, I would be careful not to I were Iran, I would be careful not to sort of drag this out too long in the sort of drag this out too long in the sort of drag this out too long in the sense that at some point, you know, we sense that at some point, you know, we sense that at some point, you know, we will begin to adapt. we will uh have will begin to adapt. we will uh have will begin to adapt. we will uh have >> there's also only so much humiliation >> there's also only so much humiliation >> there's also only so much humiliation the US can withstand sustain I mean at the US can withstand sustain I mean at the US can withstand sustain I mean at some point every embarrassment to the some point every embarrassment to the some point every embarrassment to the United States is by definition like a United States is by definition like a United States is by definition like a reduction in its power right reduction in its power right reduction in its power right >> yeah but you you can sometimes make the >> yeah but you you can sometimes make the >> yeah but you you can sometimes make the in other words if you're so worried in other words if you're so worried in other words if you're so worried about oh I can't be humiliated I've got about oh I can't be humiliated I've got about oh I can't be humiliated I've got to do something you better make damn to do something you better make damn to do something you better make damn sure that that next thing you do sure that that next thing you do sure that that next thing you do actually works or then your humiliation

actually works or then your humiliation actually works or then your humiliation is compounded and it gets worse and is compounded and it gets worse and is compounded and it gets worse and worse and worse and worse but I'm saying worse and worse and worse but I'm saying worse and worse and worse but I'm saying if US policy makers decide like we if US policy makers decide like we if US policy makers decide like we actually can't lose this or we're going actually can't lose this or we're going actually can't lose this or we're going to lose the dollar. to lose the dollar. to lose the dollar. >> Yeah. I don't think we're anywhere near >> Yeah. I don't think we're anywhere near >> Yeah. I don't think we're anywhere near there though. there though. there though. >> But I'm just saying if people start to >> But I'm just saying if people start to >> But I'm just saying if people start to think like that, you could see think like that, you could see think like that, you could see incentives to do something crazy. incentives to do something crazy. incentives to do something crazy. >> Yeah, you could. Um >> Yeah, you could. Um >> Yeah, you could. Um I I I still cling to the hope I guess I I I still cling to the hope I guess I I I still cling to the hope I guess that um that you know some of the that um that you know some of the that um that you know some of the crazier things you occasionally hear crazier things you occasionally hear crazier things you occasionally hear about you know we might you know use a about you know we might you know use a about you know we might you know use a nuclear weapon or something like that nuclear weapon or something like that nuclear weapon or something like that that at that point you know sensible that at that point you know sensible that at that point you know sensible people will stand up and say are you people will stand up and say are you people will stand up and say are you kidding over this this is not worth kidding over this this is not worth kidding over this this is not worth crossing that particular threshold crossing that particular threshold crossing that particular threshold becoming the the now the only country in becoming the the now the only country in becoming the the now the only country in history to use nuclear weapons and we've history to use nuclear weapons and we've history to use nuclear weapons and we've done it twice against non-nuclear done it twice against non-nuclear done it twice against non-nuclear powers. This is not a good look for the powers. This is not a good look for the powers. This is not a good look for the United States at a moment where United States at a moment where United States at a moment where America's image around the world is America's image around the world is America's image around the world is tanking anyway. This seems to me would tanking anyway. This seems to me would tanking anyway. This seems to me would be a huge mistake and I would expect a be a huge mistake and I would expect a be a huge mistake and I would expect a lot of push back if anybody, you know, lot of push back if anybody, you know, lot of push back if anybody, you know, seriously seriously seriously went beyond the sort of contemplating went beyond the sort of contemplating went beyond the sort of contemplating stage.

stage. stage. >> I hope so. Yeah. But I would think even >> I hope so. Yeah. But I would think even >> I hope so. Yeah. But I would think even at the stage of contemplation someone at the stage of contemplation someone at the stage of contemplation someone would say what did you just say that's would say what did you just say that's would say what did you just say that's nuts but that hasn't happened because nuts but that hasn't happened because nuts but that hasn't happened because this has been discussed at the this has been discussed at the this has been discussed at the >> but again I think you look at the >> but again I think you look at the >> but again I think you look at the history of of both nuclear powers and history of of both nuclear powers and history of of both nuclear powers and you know other major powers and if you you know other major powers and if you you know other major powers and if you get at the number of things people have get at the number of things people have get at the number of things people have talked about at very but without you talked about at very but without you talked about at very but without you know without serious consideration know without serious consideration know without serious consideration there's a lot of crazy that gets there's a lot of crazy that gets there's a lot of crazy that gets gets talked about is you know let's gets talked about is you know let's gets talked about is you know let's think this through for a second and then think this through for a second and then think this through for a second and then some of that's undoubtedly useful if some of that's undoubtedly useful if some of that's undoubtedly useful if you've thought about it, you know, okay, you've thought about it, you know, okay, you've thought about it, you know, okay, let's No, that's a crazy idea. Here's let's No, that's a crazy idea. Here's let's No, that's a crazy idea. Here's why. And then you can and can dismiss why. And then you can and can dismiss why. And then you can and can dismiss it. So, I don't I don't want to sort of it. So, I don't I don't want to sort of it. So, I don't I don't want to sort of self censor the consideration of various self censor the consideration of various self censor the consideration of various options. I just want smart enough people options. I just want smart enough people options. I just want smart enough people with good enough judgment that when they with good enough judgment that when they with good enough judgment that when they hear something crazy to know that it's hear something crazy to know that it's hear something crazy to know that it's uh know that it's crazy. uh know that it's crazy. uh know that it's crazy. >> Yeah, I've always had confidence there >> Yeah, I've always had confidence there >> Yeah, I've always had confidence there would be people like that. I have less would be people like that. I have less would be people like that. I have less confidence. confidence. confidence. >> I I'm with you there. Um, so it does >> I I'm with you there. Um, so it does >> I I'm with you there. Um, so it does seem like no matter what happens, no seem like no matter what happens, no seem like no matter what happens, no matter how this is resolved, there will matter how this is resolved, there will matter how this is resolved, there will be a reduction in the US presence in the be a reduction in the US presence in the be a reduction in the US presence in the Gulf because I just think that's for a Gulf because I just think that's for a Gulf because I just think that's for a bunch of reasons, but it seems bunch of reasons, but it seems bunch of reasons, but it seems inevitable that there will be fewer US inevitable that there will be fewer US inevitable that there will be fewer US forces in the Gulf, forces in the Gulf, forces in the Gulf, >> right?

>> right? >> right? >> What effect will that I mean because >> What effect will that I mean because >> What effect will that I mean because there will be a lot of politicians who there will be a lot of politicians who there will be a lot of politicians who say, why are we there at all? say, why are we there at all? say, why are we there at all? >> Right? >> Right? >> Right? >> Why are we there at all? >> Why are we there at all? >> Why are we there at all? >> Well, there are variety of reasons why >> Well, there are variety of reasons why >> Well, there are variety of reasons why we've ended up there and I think we've ended up there and I think we've ended up there and I think actually historical experience, actually historical experience, actually historical experience, historical perspective here is quite historical perspective here is quite historical perspective here is quite useful. Um, so useful. Um, so useful. Um, so we didn't care very much about the we didn't care very much about the we didn't care very much about the Middle East until the end of World War Middle East until the end of World War Middle East until the end of World War II. And at the end of World War II, we II. And at the end of World War II, we II. And at the end of World War II, we began to take a more serious interest in began to take a more serious interest in began to take a more serious interest in the Middle East because people began to the Middle East because people began to the Middle East because people began to realize there was a lot of oil there, realize there was a lot of oil there, realize there was a lot of oil there, that there was energy resources. It was that there was energy resources. It was that there was energy resources. It was not yet a vital interest because we not yet a vital interest because we not yet a vital interest because we didn't need those resources at that didn't need those resources at that didn't need those resources at that point. We were still producing enormous point. We were still producing enormous point. We were still producing enormous amounts of oil and gas here in the amounts of oil and gas here in the amounts of oil and gas here in the United States, but we began to to take United States, but we began to to take United States, but we began to to take an interest. And for the rest of the an interest. And for the rest of the an interest. And for the rest of the Cold War, the Middle East was a Cold War, the Middle East was a Cold War, the Middle East was a battleground in the Cold War where we battleground in the Cold War where we battleground in the Cold War where we were competing with the Soviet Union for were competing with the Soviet Union for were competing with the Soviet Union for influence. We had our friends, the influence. We had our friends, the influence. We had our friends, the Saudis, the Israelis, the Jordanians, Saudis, the Israelis, the Jordanians, Saudis, the Israelis, the Jordanians, others. Uh the Soviets had Egypt, Syria, others. Uh the Soviets had Egypt, Syria, others. Uh the Soviets had Egypt, Syria, Iraq eventually as well. Um, and our Iraq eventually as well. Um, and our Iraq eventually as well. Um, and our allies turned out to be better than allies turned out to be better than allies turned out to be better than their allies, which uh was was useful.

their allies, which uh was was useful. their allies, which uh was was useful. But very interestingly, in that whole But very interestingly, in that whole But very interestingly, in that whole period, the United States didn't really period, the United States didn't really period, the United States didn't really have much military uh presence there. We have much military uh presence there. We have much military uh presence there. We had an air base or two. We had a had an air base or two. We had a had an air base or two. We had a flatillaa that a small flatillaa that flatillaa that a small flatillaa that flatillaa that a small flatillaa that went in and out, but we didn't think of went in and out, but we didn't think of went in and out, but we didn't think of it as an area where we were going to get it as an area where we were going to get it as an area where we were going to get actively involved militarily. Yes, we actively involved militarily. Yes, we actively involved militarily. Yes, we were playing basically a balance of were playing basically a balance of were playing basically a balance of power game. We didn't want anybody to power game. We didn't want anybody to power game. We didn't want anybody to control the region. We didn't have to control the region. We didn't have to control the region. We didn't have to control it ourselves. We just wanted to control it ourselves. We just wanted to control it ourselves. We just wanted to make sure the Soviet Union didn't and make sure the Soviet Union didn't and make sure the Soviet Union didn't and nobody else was able to dominate the nobody else was able to dominate the nobody else was able to dominate the region as well. Very much a balance of region as well. Very much a balance of region as well. Very much a balance of power uh game. This changes, right? The power uh game. This changes, right? The power uh game. This changes, right? The first Gulf War in 1991. We had co first Gulf War in 1991. We had co first Gulf War in 1991. We had co created the rapid deployment force back created the rapid deployment force back created the rapid deployment force back in 1979 after the Iranian revolution. in 1979 after the Iranian revolution. in 1979 after the Iranian revolution. Created the rapid deployment force, but Created the rapid deployment force, but Created the rapid deployment force, but we didn't park it in the Middle East. We we didn't park it in the Middle East. We we didn't park it in the Middle East. We kept it here in the United States. We kept it here in the United States. We kept it here in the United States. We had pre-positioned equipment. I think in had pre-positioned equipment. I think in had pre-positioned equipment. I think in Diego Garcia, etc. But we were not a big Diego Garcia, etc. But we were not a big Diego Garcia, etc. But we were not a big footprint in the Middle East. Then comes footprint in the Middle East. Then comes footprint in the Middle East. Then comes the first Gulf War. Suddenly, we've got the first Gulf War. Suddenly, we've got the first Gulf War. Suddenly, we've got several hundred,000 troops in there several hundred,000 troops in there several hundred,000 troops in there throwing Iraq out of Kuwait. And we throwing Iraq out of Kuwait. And we throwing Iraq out of Kuwait. And we brought most of them home, but we didn't brought most of them home, but we didn't brought most of them home, but we didn't bring all of them home. Right? And in bring all of them home. Right? And in bring all of them home. Right? And in the Clinton administration, we adopted a the Clinton administration, we adopted a the Clinton administration, we adopted a policy known as dual containment where policy known as dual containment where policy known as dual containment where we were going to contain Iraq and Iran we were going to contain Iraq and Iran we were going to contain Iraq and Iran simultaneously simultaneously simultaneously even though Iraq and Iran were mortal even though Iraq and Iran were mortal even though Iraq and Iran were mortal enemies at that point. Right? And to do enemies at that point. Right? And to do enemies at that point. Right? And to do that we had to keep troops in Kuwait and that we had to keep troops in Kuwait and that we had to keep troops in Kuwait and we had to keep troops in Saudi Arabia.

we had to keep troops in Saudi Arabia. we had to keep troops in Saudi Arabia. This is the early to mid 1990s. And dual This is the early to mid 1990s. And dual This is the early to mid 1990s. And dual containment was uh the brainchild of I containment was uh the brainchild of I containment was uh the brainchild of I think mostly Martin Indic. And it was think mostly Martin Indic. And it was think mostly Martin Indic. And it was partly intended, not entirely, but partly intended, not entirely, but partly intended, not entirely, but partly intended to reassure Israel and partly intended to reassure Israel and partly intended to reassure Israel and make Israel more compliant in the Oslo make Israel more compliant in the Oslo make Israel more compliant in the Oslo process. The theory was that, you know, process. The theory was that, you know, process. The theory was that, you know, Israel's insecure, always worried, Israel's insecure, always worried, Israel's insecure, always worried, always uh worried about security. So, if always uh worried about security. So, if always uh worried about security. So, if we say we're going to deal with Iran and we say we're going to deal with Iran and we say we're going to deal with Iran and Iraq, we'll keep track of them. You guys Iraq, we'll keep track of them. You guys Iraq, we'll keep track of them. You guys should make some concessions in the Oslo should make some concessions in the Oslo should make some concessions in the Oslo process towards the Palestinians. process towards the Palestinians. process towards the Palestinians. Didn't work, right? But that was the Didn't work, right? But that was the Didn't work, right? But that was the logic. But the problem was by keeping logic. But the problem was by keeping logic. But the problem was by keeping all those troops in Saudi Arabia, it all those troops in Saudi Arabia, it all those troops in Saudi Arabia, it became one of the things that Osama bin became one of the things that Osama bin became one of the things that Osama bin Laden Laden Laden >> Oh, famously >> Oh, famously >> Oh, famously >> Yeah. didn't like and justified his >> Yeah. didn't like and justified his >> Yeah. didn't like and justified his declaring, you know, jihad against the declaring, you know, jihad against the declaring, you know, jihad against the United States. So, one of the reasons we United States. So, one of the reasons we United States. So, one of the reasons we end up uh with in trouble with al-Qaeda end up uh with in trouble with al-Qaeda end up uh with in trouble with al-Qaeda is the fact that we've adopted a policy is the fact that we've adopted a policy is the fact that we've adopted a policy of keeping a lot of troops now in the of keeping a lot of troops now in the of keeping a lot of troops now in the Middle East. That's where it starts.

Middle East. That's where it starts. Middle East. That's where it starts. Then of course that eventually we get Then of course that eventually we get Then of course that eventually we get 911 and then we get the war in Iraq, 911 and then we get the war in Iraq, 911 and then we get the war in Iraq, 2003 war in Iraq and now we have a very 2003 war in Iraq and now we have a very 2003 war in Iraq and now we have a very large presence in the Middle East and it large presence in the Middle East and it large presence in the Middle East and it takes more than a decade to start takes more than a decade to start takes more than a decade to start bringing that back down and we basically bringing that back down and we basically bringing that back down and we basically have never gotten out of now either have never gotten out of now either have never gotten out of now either trying to provide order in the Middle trying to provide order in the Middle trying to provide order in the Middle East ourselves or more more accurately East ourselves or more more accurately East ourselves or more more accurately providing a lot of disorder in the providing a lot of disorder in the providing a lot of disorder in the Middle East trying to reshape it to our Middle East trying to reshape it to our Middle East trying to reshape it to our liking by toppling governments of liking by toppling governments of liking by toppling governments of various kinds and no president has ever various kinds and no president has ever various kinds and no president has ever been able to fully extract themselves been able to fully extract themselves been able to fully extract themselves from doing that. So if from doing that. So if from doing that. So if >> well we're further imshed than we have >> well we're further imshed than we have >> well we're further imshed than we have been. been. been. >> That's right. And now if the end result >> That's right. And now if the end result >> That's right. And now if the end result of this conflict is for the United of this conflict is for the United of this conflict is for the United States to be less physically present in States to be less physically present in States to be less physically present in the Middle East, less directly involved the Middle East, less directly involved the Middle East, less directly involved in trying to manage the local politics in trying to manage the local politics in trying to manage the local politics of the region, telling different of the region, telling different of the region, telling different governments how to behave and what to governments how to behave and what to governments how to behave and what to do. I think that'd be a good thing, do. I think that'd be a good thing, do. I think that'd be a good thing, right? that might permit the United right? that might permit the United right? that might permit the United States to then start focusing its States to then start focusing its States to then start focusing its attention on bigger problems attention on bigger problems attention on bigger problems um problems in Asia and elsewhere. Last um problems in Asia and elsewhere. Last um problems in Asia and elsewhere. Last point, the other thing that's point, the other thing that's point, the other thing that's characterized American policy characterized American policy characterized American policy from the mid60s on, uh, I'd say, is from the mid60s on, uh, I'd say, is from the mid60s on, uh, I'd say, is we've had special relations with some we've had special relations with some we've had special relations with some countries in the Middle East, Israel, to countries in the Middle East, Israel, to countries in the Middle East, Israel, to some degree, Saudi Arabia after 75, also some degree, Saudi Arabia after 75, also some degree, Saudi Arabia after 75, also Egypt, and no relationship whatsoever Egypt, and no relationship whatsoever Egypt, and no relationship whatsoever with one country in the Middle East, with one country in the Middle East, with one country in the Middle East, Iran.

Iran. Iran. >> Yes. Right. You contrast that with >> Yes. Right. You contrast that with >> Yes. Right. You contrast that with Russia, China, everybody else in the Russia, China, everybody else in the Russia, China, everybody else in the world who has relations with everybody world who has relations with everybody world who has relations with everybody in the region. Doesn't mean they like in the region. Doesn't mean they like in the region. Doesn't mean they like them necessarily. Doesn't mean they're them necessarily. Doesn't mean they're them necessarily. Doesn't mean they're not uh pushing back or objecting or not uh pushing back or objecting or not uh pushing back or objecting or doing various things, but they talk all doing various things, but they talk all doing various things, but they talk all the time. They deal with them. They the time. They deal with them. They the time. They deal with them. They understand that they're there. We've had understand that they're there. We've had understand that they're there. We've had relations where we give some governments relations where we give some governments relations where we give some governments almost unconditional support and we almost unconditional support and we almost unconditional support and we don't even deal on a direct basis with don't even deal on a direct basis with don't even deal on a direct basis with the others. And this is crazy. my my the others. And this is crazy. my my the others. And this is crazy. my my dream. dream. dream. >> Why do we do that? >> Why do we do that? >> Why do we do that? >> We're unique among countries in doing >> We're unique among countries in doing >> We're unique among countries in doing that. I think that. I think that. I think >> um we're more likely than others. Um >> um we're more likely than others. Um >> um we're more likely than others. Um there's a there's proximate causes and there's a there's proximate causes and there's a there's proximate causes and permissive cause. The permissive cause permissive cause. The permissive cause permissive cause. The permissive cause is the fact that the United States has is the fact that the United States has is the fact that the United States has been so secure and so wealthy and been so secure and so wealthy and been so secure and so wealthy and powerful for so long, which gives us the powerful for so long, which gives us the powerful for so long, which gives us the luxury of pretending other governments luxury of pretending other governments luxury of pretending other governments don't exist and doesn't matter. We don't don't exist and doesn't matter. We don't don't exist and doesn't matter. We don't have to talk to them, etc. have to talk to them, etc. have to talk to them, etc. um it it's not a luxury you can afford um it it's not a luxury you can afford um it it's not a luxury you can afford if your security is is more precarious.

if your security is is more precarious. if your security is is more precarious. So that's I think the permissive cause So that's I think the permissive cause So that's I think the permissive cause and then the approximate causes uh have and then the approximate causes uh have and then the approximate causes uh have been the you know in the case of Israel been the you know in the case of Israel been the you know in the case of Israel obviously the the special relationship obviously the the special relationship obviously the the special relationship there is mostly driven by American there is mostly driven by American there is mostly driven by American domestic politics not the only example domestic politics not the only example domestic politics not the only example of that in the world but it's the most of that in the world but it's the most of that in the world but it's the most obvious most important and to some obvious most important and to some obvious most important and to some degree I think the connections between degree I think the connections between degree I think the connections between Saudi royal family American elites Saudi royal family American elites Saudi royal family American elites American oil interests things like that American oil interests things like that American oil interests things like that um and then Egypt was partly because of um and then Egypt was partly because of um and then Egypt was partly because of the Egypt Israeli peace treaty and sort the Egypt Israeli peace treaty and sort the Egypt Israeli peace treaty and sort of keeping Egypt on board and part of of keeping Egypt on board and part of of keeping Egypt on board and part of that relationship. Most of it though I that relationship. Most of it though I that relationship. Most of it though I think ultimately stems on Israel. >> So if we were to do what you hope >> So if we were to do what you hope happens which is withdraw substantially happens which is withdraw substantially happens which is withdraw substantially or completely from the region like what or completely from the region like what or completely from the region like what are the risks of that? Well, so there are the risks of that? Well, so there are the risks of that? Well, so there are several. The the biggest one that are several. The the biggest one that are several. The the biggest one that people point to is u you know a people point to is u you know a people point to is u you know a proliferation risk that to the extent proliferation risk that to the extent proliferation risk that to the extent that uh the American security umbrella that uh the American security umbrella that uh the American security umbrella has discouraged or deterred um countries has discouraged or deterred um countries has discouraged or deterred um countries like Saudi Arabia from pursuing nuclear like Saudi Arabia from pursuing nuclear like Saudi Arabia from pursuing nuclear weapons. Um then if you suddenly said weapons. Um then if you suddenly said weapons. Um then if you suddenly said we're no longer doing that, we're not in we're no longer doing that, we're not in we're no longer doing that, we're not in that business uh any longer. Um, it'd be that business uh any longer. Um, it'd be that business uh any longer. Um, it'd be more likely, not certain, but it'd be more likely, not certain, but it'd be more likely, not certain, but it'd be more likely that some of those more likely that some of those more likely that some of those countries, maybe not just Saudi Arabia, countries, maybe not just Saudi Arabia, countries, maybe not just Saudi Arabia, would decide, okay, well, in order to be would decide, okay, well, in order to be would decide, okay, well, in order to be secure, you know, dangerous secure, you know, dangerous secure, you know, dangerous neighborhood, Israel has nuclear neighborhood, Israel has nuclear neighborhood, Israel has nuclear weapons. Maybe Turkey will get them. Who weapons. Maybe Turkey will get them. Who weapons. Maybe Turkey will get them. Who knows? Iran might someday get them. I

knows? Iran might someday get them. I knows? Iran might someday get them. I need them, too. And so, you could need them, too. And so, you could need them, too. And so, you could imagine imagine imagine a sort of gradual spread of nuclear a sort of gradual spread of nuclear a sort of gradual spread of nuclear weapons in the region. Um that's even weapons in the region. Um that's even weapons in the region. Um that's even that argument which I don't reject out that argument which I don't reject out that argument which I don't reject out of hand uh is has to be qualified of hand uh is has to be qualified of hand uh is has to be qualified because American activities in the because American activities in the because American activities in the region have also given countries reasons region have also given countries reasons region have also given countries reasons to pursue nuclear weapons in the past. I to pursue nuclear weapons in the past. I to pursue nuclear weapons in the past. I mean why does Iran want to have a mean why does Iran want to have a mean why does Iran want to have a nuclear program? Why has Iran wanted to nuclear program? Why has Iran wanted to nuclear program? Why has Iran wanted to be close to the nuclear threshold but be close to the nuclear threshold but be close to the nuclear threshold but not over it? Because it was worried not over it? Because it was worried not over it? Because it was worried about the United States, right? It was about the United States, right? It was about the United States, right? It was worried that we were going to try to do worried that we were going to try to do worried that we were going to try to do what we've just tried to do, right? And what we've just tried to do, right? And what we've just tried to do, right? And so some American activities and so some American activities and so some American activities and involvement in the region is a spur to involvement in the region is a spur to involvement in the region is a spur to proliferation even though you have to be proliferation even though you have to be proliferation even though you have to be honest disengagement uh might encourage honest disengagement uh might encourage honest disengagement uh might encourage it. It's also um you know possible that it. It's also um you know possible that it. It's also um you know possible that that will happen anyway. We've just you that will happen anyway. We've just you that will happen anyway. We've just you know reached some kind of nuclear know reached some kind of nuclear know reached some kind of nuclear arrangement with Saudi Arabia as well arrangement with Saudi Arabia as well arrangement with Saudi Arabia as well which is going to it's not supposed to which is going to it's not supposed to which is going to it's not supposed to lead them to get a bomb but it's not lead them to get a bomb but it's not lead them to get a bomb but it's not going to make it harder.

going to make it harder. going to make it harder. >> No. >> No. >> No. >> As well. So, uh, there's long >> As well. So, uh, there's long >> As well. So, uh, there's long speculation. speculation. speculation. >> That's that's one of the the concerns, >> That's that's one of the the concerns, >> That's that's one of the the concerns, uh, we have and I should be very clear. uh, we have and I should be very clear. uh, we have and I should be very clear. >> Is that a concern? I mean, if >> Is that a concern? I mean, if >> Is that a concern? I mean, if >> I mean, would it is it impossible that >> I mean, would it is it impossible that >> I mean, would it is it impossible that if more nations in the region had if more nations in the region had if more nations in the region had nuclear weapons that you would have nuclear weapons that you would have nuclear weapons that you would have a more peaceful region? a more peaceful region? a more peaceful region? This this is a long-standing argument um This this is a long-standing argument um This this is a long-standing argument um that a number of people my dissertation that a number of people my dissertation that a number of people my dissertation adviser Kenneth Waltz made uh this adviser Kenneth Waltz made uh this adviser Kenneth Waltz made uh this argument in both a famous uh paper back argument in both a famous uh paper back argument in both a famous uh paper back in 1981 in 1981 in 1981 arguing that the gradual gradual spread arguing that the gradual gradual spread arguing that the gradual gradual spread of nuclear weapons would actually be of nuclear weapons would actually be of nuclear weapons would actually be stabilizing and better than going to stabilizing and better than going to stabilizing and better than going to enormous lengths to try and prevent it enormous lengths to try and prevent it enormous lengths to try and prevent it from happening. um very controversial, from happening. um very controversial, from happening. um very controversial, got lots of criticism. And then in his got lots of criticism. And then in his got lots of criticism. And then in his very last published article a few months very last published article a few months very last published article a few months before he he died, he published an before he he died, he published an before he he died, he published an article in foreign affairs uh I think article in foreign affairs uh I think article in foreign affairs uh I think the title was why Iran should get the the title was why Iran should get the the title was why Iran should get the bomb. And he made exactly this argument bomb. And he made exactly this argument bomb. And he made exactly this argument that in fact if if if Iran were to get that in fact if if if Iran were to get that in fact if if if Iran were to get nuclear weapons, it would be relatively nuclear weapons, it would be relatively nuclear weapons, it would be relatively secure. it would no longer be have much secure. it would no longer be have much secure. it would no longer be have much incentive to meddle around with other incentive to meddle around with other incentive to meddle around with other countries and it would actually have countries and it would actually have countries and it would actually have stabilizing effects. Again, very stabilizing effects. Again, very stabilizing effects. Again, very controversial, got lot lots of controversial, got lot lots of controversial, got lot lots of criticism. The logic behind that criticism. The logic behind that criticism. The logic behind that position is uh a powerful logic about position is uh a powerful logic about position is uh a powerful logic about the that you know using nuclear weapons the that you know using nuclear weapons the that you know using nuclear weapons is completely irrational for Iran to use

is completely irrational for Iran to use is completely irrational for Iran to use a nuclear weapon against Israel or a nuclear weapon against Israel or a nuclear weapon against Israel or anybody else might invite its own anybody else might invite its own anybody else might invite its own destruction. They're useful only for destruction. They're useful only for destruction. They're useful only for deterring major attacks on your own soil deterring major attacks on your own soil deterring major attacks on your own soil and therefore a nuclear Middle East and therefore a nuclear Middle East and therefore a nuclear Middle East might actually be more. might actually be more. might actually be more. >> Have there been more or fewer wars per >> Have there been more or fewer wars per >> Have there been more or fewer wars per decade between India and Pakistan before decade between India and Pakistan before decade between India and Pakistan before Pakistan got the bomber after that's a a Pakistan got the bomber after that's a a Pakistan got the bomber after that's a a famous illustration of exactly this famous illustration of exactly this famous illustration of exactly this argument. There are there are also argument. There are there are also argument. There are there are also cogent counterarguments cogent counterarguments cogent counterarguments on the other side that um you do have to on the other side that um you do have to on the other side that um you do have to you know the more hands have more people you know the more hands have more people you know the more hands have more people who have their fingers on the trigger who have their fingers on the trigger who have their fingers on the trigger you know it only takes one right you know it only takes one right you know it only takes one right >> and fine we might say great we've had >> and fine we might say great we've had >> and fine we might say great we've had >> 30 years of relative not complete but >> 30 years of relative not complete but >> 30 years of relative not complete but relative peace between India and relative peace between India and relative peace between India and Pakistan they have fought each other a Pakistan they have fought each other a Pakistan they have fought each other a few times but it would only take one few times but it would only take one few times but it would only take one nuclear exchange to really alter that nuclear exchange to really alter that nuclear exchange to really alter that that that equation. So I don't think one that that equation. So I don't think one that that equation. So I don't think one ought to be sanguin about this ought to be sanguin about this ought to be sanguin about this possibility but one should not reject it possibility but one should not reject it possibility but one should not reject it out of hand and one should also always out of hand and one should also always out of hand and one should also always ask the the sort of opportunity cost or ask the the sort of opportunity cost or ask the the sort of opportunity cost or counterfactual question. What do you counterfactual question. What do you counterfactual question. What do you have to do to prevent it from happening?

have to do to prevent it from happening? have to do to prevent it from happening? What are the costs of doing what you're What are the costs of doing what you're What are the costs of doing what you're going to do to prevent it from going to do to prevent it from going to do to prevent it from happening? I want to go back to one happening? I want to go back to one happening? I want to go back to one other thing though, which is that I'm other thing though, which is that I'm other thing though, which is that I'm not arguing for the United States to not arguing for the United States to not arguing for the United States to disengage from the Middle East uh either disengage from the Middle East uh either disengage from the Middle East uh either economically or diplomatically or economically or diplomatically or economically or diplomatically or necessarily uh militarily. I like the necessarily uh militarily. I like the necessarily uh militarily. I like the idea of a balance of power in the idea of a balance of power in the idea of a balance of power in the region. I don't want any country to try region. I don't want any country to try region. I don't want any country to try and dominate the place, try and control and dominate the place, try and control and dominate the place, try and control it partly because they could manipulate it partly because they could manipulate it partly because they could manipulate energy supplies in kind of the way Iran energy supplies in kind of the way Iran energy supplies in kind of the way Iran is trying to do now. Uh, and therefore I is trying to do now. Uh, and therefore I is trying to do now. Uh, and therefore I think the United States should be ready think the United States should be ready think the United States should be ready if you see something like the invasion if you see something like the invasion if you see something like the invasion of Kuwait in 1991 happening, a major of Kuwait in 1991 happening, a major of Kuwait in 1991 happening, a major potential shift in the balance of power, potential shift in the balance of power, potential shift in the balance of power, United States should be ready to weigh United States should be ready to weigh United States should be ready to weigh in and try to stop that as we did in in and try to stop that as we did in in and try to stop that as we did in 1991. Um, but though that's not going to 1991. Um, but though that's not going to 1991. Um, but though that's not going to happen very often, right? and it doesn't happen very often, right? and it doesn't happen very often, right? and it doesn't require the United States to be require the United States to be require the United States to be physically present and trying to dictate physically present and trying to dictate physically present and trying to dictate the local politics and topple regimes the local politics and topple regimes the local politics and topple regimes and things like that. So, it's not like and things like that. So, it's not like and things like that. So, it's not like the Middle East is irrelevant and I want the Middle East is irrelevant and I want the Middle East is irrelevant and I want the United States never to have a the United States never to have a the United States never to have a military role there. I just want to be military role there. I just want to be military role there. I just want to be very selective in when we go and for very selective in when we go and for very selective in when we go and for what purposes.

what purposes. what purposes. >> I think you're in the center of the >> I think you're in the center of the >> I think you're in the center of the mainstream on that question. mainstream on that question. mainstream on that question. But back to the original uh question But back to the original uh question But back to the original uh question problem, how do you get this war problem, how do you get this war problem, how do you get this war resolved and when will that happen? I resolved and when will that happen? I resolved and when will that happen? I mean, what's your best guess? mean, what's your best guess? mean, what's your best guess? >> Um >> Um >> Um I this is the kind of thing because in a I this is the kind of thing because in a I this is the kind of thing because in a sense the the critical decision rests sense the the critical decision rests sense the the critical decision rests with one person is at this point. I with one person is at this point. I with one person is at this point. I think it rests with Donald Trump. Um and think it rests with Donald Trump. Um and think it rests with Donald Trump. Um and until he says, "Okay, it's over." Right? until he says, "Okay, it's over." Right? until he says, "Okay, it's over." Right? no matter how he dresses it up will be no matter how he dresses it up will be no matter how he dresses it up will be in a state of state of war whether in a state of state of war whether in a state of state of war whether they're actually shooting at each other they're actually shooting at each other they're actually shooting at each other or not. Uh and I can't forecast at what or not. Uh and I can't forecast at what or not. Uh and I can't forecast at what point he will decide that it's just he point he will decide that it's just he point he will decide that it's just he needs to end this and and be done with needs to end this and and be done with needs to end this and and be done with it. Um I do think I wrote this a few uh it. Um I do think I wrote this a few uh it. Um I do think I wrote this a few uh weeks ago that you know of all the weeks ago that you know of all the weeks ago that you know of all the presidents I have observed he's probably presidents I have observed he's probably presidents I have observed he's probably the one who is best able to you know the one who is best able to you know the one who is best able to you know sort of declare victory and get out you sort of declare victory and get out you sort of declare victory and get out you know pretend it was a victory and then know pretend it was a victory and then know pretend it was a victory and then move on change the subject do something move on change the subject do something move on change the subject do something else somewhere else somewhere else somewhere >> build a second ballroom uh you know just >> build a second ballroom uh you know just >> build a second ballroom uh you know just get everybody talking about something get everybody talking about something get everybody talking about something else he's he's brilliant at that and he else he's he's brilliant at that and he else he's he's brilliant at that and he should take advantage of that ability should take advantage of that ability should take advantage of that ability it'll be harder this time around It's a it'll be harder this time around It's a it'll be harder this time around It's a little bit too obvious a failure, but little bit too obvious a failure, but little bit too obvious a failure, but but that's what I would have but that's what I would have but that's what I would have >> theou is an effort to do that. I think >> theou is an effort to do that. I think >> theou is an effort to do that. I think >> I think it was and >> I think it was and >> I think it was and >> one of the reasons it didn't work is >> one of the reasons it didn't work is >> one of the reasons it didn't work is because the first line of that agreement

because the first line of that agreement because the first line of that agreement or framework of an agreement promised or framework of an agreement promised or framework of an agreement promised that hostilities in Lebanon would stop that hostilities in Lebanon would stop that hostilities in Lebanon would stop and the Israelis totally ignored that and the Israelis totally ignored that and the Israelis totally ignored that and doubled down. So like we're not in and doubled down. So like we're not in and doubled down. So like we're not in this alone. this alone. this alone. >> No, that's that's true. and and you >> No, that's that's true. and and you >> No, that's that's true. and and you we've seen uh occasional uh you know we've seen uh occasional uh you know we've seen uh occasional uh you know signs of fissures or cracks uh with the signs of fissures or cracks uh with the signs of fissures or cracks uh with the I think that that I would be shocked if I think that that I would be shocked if I think that that I would be shocked if uh Trump had doesn't have his moments uh Trump had doesn't have his moments uh Trump had doesn't have his moments where he's enraged at Prime Minister where he's enraged at Prime Minister where he's enraged at Prime Minister Netanyahu for getting him into days. Netanyahu for getting him into days. Netanyahu for getting him into days. >> Yeah, you would be amazed. But but you >> Yeah, you would be amazed. But but you >> Yeah, you would be amazed. But but you haven't seen that turn into a genuine haven't seen that turn into a genuine haven't seen that turn into a genuine policy rift. policy rift. policy rift. uh you haven't seen that turn into uh uh you haven't seen that turn into uh uh you haven't seen that turn into uh the United States saying look you're the the United States saying look you're the the United States saying look you're the junior partner here we're the great junior partner here we're the great junior partner here we're the great power and this issue uh we're now fully power and this issue uh we're now fully power and this issue uh we're now fully engaged and you're going to do what we engaged and you're going to do what we engaged and you're going to do what we tell you right tell you right tell you right >> why haven't you seen that >> why haven't you seen that >> why haven't you seen that >> um I think uh that first of all uh Trump >> um I think uh that first of all uh Trump >> um I think uh that first of all uh Trump uh uh uh is still I mean I I I think he has is still I mean I I I think he has is still I mean I I I think he has advisers around him, advisers around him, advisers around him, Kushner Witkoff, others who are deeply Kushner Witkoff, others who are deeply Kushner Witkoff, others who are deeply engaged in this who are uh pushing him engaged in this who are uh pushing him engaged in this who are uh pushing him the other way. I think certainly some of the other way. I think certainly some of the other way. I think certainly some of his donor base um have uh weighed in in his donor base um have uh weighed in in his donor base um have uh weighed in in various ways uh not just now but various ways uh not just now but various ways uh not just now but previously. So I think he's mindful of

previously. So I think he's mindful of previously. So I think he's mindful of the political consequences of of that the political consequences of of that the political consequences of of that even though public is pushed away. Um even though public is pushed away. Um even though public is pushed away. Um the donor base on which a lot of the donor base on which a lot of the donor base on which a lot of Republican uh politicians depend is Republican uh politicians depend is Republican uh politicians depend is still heavily you know you got to back still heavily you know you got to back still heavily you know you got to back Israel no matter what. I think that Israel no matter what. I think that Israel no matter what. I think that probably uh is influencing him as well. probably uh is influencing him as well. probably uh is influencing him as well. Um the Um the Um the I think that's probably you know most of I think that's probably you know most of I think that's probably you know most of it. Um it. Um it. Um the the rest of it though is is I think the the rest of it though is is I think the the rest of it though is is I think his own uh inability to uh you know his own uh inability to uh you know his own uh inability to uh you know admit even to himself that he he made a admit even to himself that he he made a admit even to himself that he he made a mistake here and that that whatever mistake here and that that whatever mistake here and that that whatever comes out of it is going to look to most comes out of it is going to look to most comes out of it is going to look to most observers like an American retreat. And observers like an American retreat. And observers like an American retreat. And that's not that's not part of his brand that's not that's not part of his brand that's not that's not part of his brand if you will. if you will. if you will. >> Yeah. It has massive consequences too by >> Yeah. It has massive consequences too by >> Yeah. It has massive consequences too by the way, does it not? Um, I'm not sure. the way, does it not? Um, I'm not sure. the way, does it not? Um, I'm not sure. I mean, the, you know, Reagan didn't I mean, the, you know, Reagan didn't I mean, the, you know, Reagan didn't face any real consequences for pulling face any real consequences for pulling face any real consequences for pulling out of Lebanon. That was the smart, that out of Lebanon. That was the smart, that out of Lebanon. That was the smart, that was a smart thing to do. Um, Nixon and was a smart thing to do. Um, Nixon and was a smart thing to do. Um, Nixon and Kissinger thought that getting out of Kissinger thought that getting out of Kissinger thought that getting out of Vietnam and having Vietnam fall to the Vietnam and having Vietnam fall to the Vietnam and having Vietnam fall to the communists communists communists would have catastrophic effects on would have catastrophic effects on would have catastrophic effects on America's position in the world. Uh, America's position in the world. Uh, America's position in the world. Uh, they were wrong. It actually improved they were wrong. It actually improved they were wrong. It actually improved our position both in Asia and especially our position both in Asia and especially our position both in Asia and especially in other parts of the world. So I think in other parts of the world. So I think in other parts of the world. So I think we are very good at exaggerating the we are very good at exaggerating the we are very good at exaggerating the negative consequences of cutting losses.

negative consequences of cutting losses. negative consequences of cutting losses. You don't want to have to do it. You You don't want to have to do it. You You don't want to have to do it. You don't want to have to make mistakes that don't want to have to make mistakes that don't want to have to make mistakes that force you do these things. But in some force you do these things. But in some force you do these things. But in some cases you also I mean you probably know cases you also I mean you probably know cases you also I mean you probably know this you know in your own life there this you know in your own life there this you know in your own life there times if you make a mistake and you times if you make a mistake and you times if you make a mistake and you admit it and you you know tell everybody admit it and you you know tell everybody admit it and you you know tell everybody you're sorry. It was you've learned from you're sorry. It was you've learned from you're sorry. It was you've learned from it. Sometimes you actually benefit. it. Sometimes you actually benefit. it. Sometimes you actually benefit. Sometimes people get credit for good Sometimes people get credit for good Sometimes people get credit for good judgment in having made a mistake, being judgment in having made a mistake, being judgment in having made a mistake, being able to recognize it and own up to it. able to recognize it and own up to it. able to recognize it and own up to it. >> It's the biggest win, >> It's the biggest win, >> It's the biggest win, >> right? And so, you know, there would be >> right? And so, you know, there would be >> right? And so, you know, there would be some, I think, benefits. There'll be some, I think, benefits. There'll be some, I think, benefits. There'll be carping from, you know, critics. Uh, carping from, you know, critics. Uh, carping from, you know, critics. Uh, folks who supported the war and folks who supported the war and folks who supported the war and continued to support the war will continued to support the war will continued to support the war will undoubtedly attack him. But I think in a undoubtedly attack him. But I think in a undoubtedly attack him. But I think in a in a weird way, Trump would get some in a weird way, Trump would get some in a weird way, Trump would get some credit if he just said, "This was a credit if he just said, "This was a credit if he just said, "This was a mistake. I he can blame it on whoever he mistake. I he can blame it on whoever he mistake. I he can blame it on whoever he wants to blame. I was misled by my wants to blame. I was misled by my wants to blame. I was misled by my adviserss. Fire Pete Hegth, you know, adviserss. Fire Pete Hegth, you know, adviserss. Fire Pete Hegth, you know, he'd make him the fall guy or whoever, he'd make him the fall guy or whoever, he'd make him the fall guy or whoever, right? And move on. Uh you'd be better right? And move on. Uh you'd be better right? And move on. Uh you'd be better off for doing that. But whether he will, off for doing that. But whether he will, off for doing that. But whether he will, I don't know. My own read is that he I don't know. My own read is that he I don't know. My own read is that he would have done that already if it would have done that already if it would have done that already if it weren't for the Israelis. That's it's weren't for the Israelis. That's it's weren't for the Israelis. That's it's hard to do with them for many reasons, hard to do with them for many reasons, hard to do with them for many reasons, but um but I think he'd be happy to fire but um but I think he'd be happy to fire but um but I think he'd be happy to fire HGTH and blame Hexath for the whole HGTH and blame Hexath for the whole HGTH and blame Hexath for the whole thing. Well, thing. Well, thing. Well, >> it the option is always there. M >> it the option is always there. M >> it the option is always there. M >> um >> um >> um >> interesting. Do you think that there >> interesting. Do you think that there >> interesting. Do you think that there will be because the public so profoundly will be because the public so profoundly will be because the public so profoundly opposes this war according to public opposes this war according to public opposes this war according to public opinion polling?

opinion polling? opinion polling? >> How can the next administration or the >> How can the next administration or the >> How can the next administration or the second half of this administration like second half of this administration like second half of this administration like how can we have more conflicts like this how can we have more conflicts like this how can we have more conflicts like this >> after 25 years the public just saying >> after 25 years the public just saying >> after 25 years the public just saying resoundingly we're not for this kind of resoundingly we're not for this kind of resoundingly we're not for this kind of thing? thing? thing? >> Well, that's a great question. I mean, >> Well, that's a great question. I mean, >> Well, that's a great question. I mean, I've I have thought mistakenly that, you I've I have thought mistakenly that, you I've I have thought mistakenly that, you know, this time we've really learned and know, this time we've really learned and know, this time we've really learned and we won't do this again. And we won't do this again. And we won't do this again. And >> the public has learned. >> the public has learned. >> the public has learned. >> Yeah. No, I think the public has learned >> Yeah. No, I think the public has learned >> Yeah. No, I think the public has learned and and um you know, one of the there's and and um you know, one of the there's and and um you know, one of the there's a telling little statistic or a telling little statistic or a telling little statistic or observation goes way back here. observation goes way back here. observation goes way back here. Virtually every president since the end Virtually every president since the end Virtually every president since the end of the Cold War has run for president on of the Cold War has run for president on of the Cold War has run for president on a platform of I'm going to do more at a platform of I'm going to do more at a platform of I'm going to do more at home and less abroad. Right. Right. What home and less abroad. Right. Right. What home and less abroad. Right. Right. What was Bill Clinton's mantra? was Bill Clinton's mantra? was Bill Clinton's mantra? >> Well, that's the Cold War. I mean, >> Well, that's the Cold War. I mean, >> Well, that's the Cold War. I mean, Woodro Wilson ran on that. Woodro Wilson ran on that. Woodro Wilson ran on that. >> Yeah, but but Cold War, you know, being >> Yeah, but but Cold War, you know, being >> Yeah, but but Cold War, you know, being a responsible internationalist, right? a responsible internationalist, right? a responsible internationalist, right? You know, McGovern got hammered for You know, McGovern got hammered for You know, McGovern got hammered for being seen as So, you wanted to be a being seen as So, you wanted to be a being seen as So, you wanted to be a responsible internationalist. Uh, you responsible internationalist. Uh, you responsible internationalist. Uh, you know, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, etc.

know, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, etc. know, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, etc. That was pretty pretty, uh, constant. That was pretty pretty, uh, constant. That was pretty pretty, uh, constant. >> Um, Jimmy Carter was not a dove, right? >> Um, Jimmy Carter was not a dove, right? >> Um, Jimmy Carter was not a dove, right? He did plenty of hawkish things. But He did plenty of hawkish things. But He did plenty of hawkish things. But beginning beginning. So what's Bill beginning beginning. So what's Bill beginning beginning. So what's Bill Clinton's mantra? It's the economy Clinton's mantra? It's the economy Clinton's mantra? It's the economy stupid. He has no foreign policy stupid. He has no foreign policy stupid. He has no foreign policy credential. He's not interested in it. credential. He's not interested in it. credential. He's not interested in it. He runs against a very successful He runs against a very successful He runs against a very successful foreign policy president, George HW foreign policy president, George HW foreign policy president, George HW Bush, and beats him, right? Get to 2000, Bush, and beats him, right? Get to 2000, Bush, and beats him, right? Get to 2000, right? What's Bush's mantra? I'm going right? What's Bush's mantra? I'm going right? What's Bush's mantra? I'm going to give a humble foreign policy. Our to give a humble foreign policy. Our to give a humble foreign policy. Our foreign policy be strong but humble. And foreign policy be strong but humble. And foreign policy be strong but humble. And he criticizes the Clinton Gore he criticizes the Clinton Gore he criticizes the Clinton Gore administration for too much nation administration for too much nation administration for too much nation building, right? Too much foreign policy building, right? Too much foreign policy building, right? Too much foreign policy is social work, etc. We're too activist, is social work, etc. We're too activist, is social work, etc. We're too activist, >> right? The Balkans, etc. So, he runs for >> right? The Balkans, etc. So, he runs for >> right? The Balkans, etc. So, he runs for office saying, "I'm going to do more at office saying, "I'm going to do more at office saying, "I'm going to do more at home. I'm going to give you a strong but home. I'm going to give you a strong but home. I'm going to give you a strong but humble foreign policy. That's not the humble foreign policy. That's not the humble foreign policy. That's not the foreign policy he ended up giving us." foreign policy he ended up giving us." foreign policy he ended up giving us." >> The axes of evil and remaking the world >> The axes of evil and remaking the world >> The axes of evil and remaking the world in our image. That wasn't humility. in our image. That wasn't humility. in our image. That wasn't humility. >> No. Exactly. Barack Obama, he becomes >> No. Exactly. Barack Obama, he becomes >> No. Exactly. Barack Obama, he becomes president because he's one of the few president because he's one of the few president because he's one of the few Democrats who had publicly opposed the Democrats who had publicly opposed the Democrats who had publicly opposed the uh Iraq war. And so he's going to do uh Iraq war. And so he's going to do uh Iraq war. And so he's going to do nation building at home. That was one of nation building at home. That was one of nation building at home. That was one of his lines in that's not exactly what he his lines in that's not exactly what he his lines in that's not exactly what he does either. Tries to move in that does either. Tries to move in that does either. Tries to move in that direction, but he does Libya. He does a direction, but he does Libya. He does a direction, but he does Libya. He does a lot of involvement, etc. Then we brings lot of involvement, etc. Then we brings lot of involvement, etc. Then we brings us to Donald Trump, right? Opponent to us to Donald Trump, right? Opponent to us to Donald Trump, right? Opponent to the forever wars, very critical of the the forever wars, very critical of the the forever wars, very critical of the foreign policy establishment in 2016.

foreign policy establishment in 2016. foreign policy establishment in 2016. And that's distinguishes him not only And that's distinguishes him not only And that's distinguishes him not only from the Democrats, but all of the from the Democrats, but all of the from the Democrats, but all of the Republicans that he's running against Republicans that he's running against Republicans that he's running against who are basically interventionists, who are basically interventionists, who are basically interventionists, neocons, and whatever, right? And he neocons, and whatever, right? And he neocons, and whatever, right? And he wins. And then, of course, in his first wins. And then, of course, in his first wins. And then, of course, in his first term, he doesn't do half of the things term, he doesn't do half of the things term, he doesn't do half of the things that he says he's going to do. We're that he says he's going to do. We're that he says he's going to do. We're still in Afghanistan when his term ends. still in Afghanistan when his term ends. still in Afghanistan when his term ends. He actually does a little surge just He actually does a little surge just He actually does a little surge just like Obama did in his first year. So, he like Obama did in his first year. So, he like Obama did in his first year. So, he doesn't change either. Then you get doesn't change either. Then you get doesn't change either. Then you get Biden, of course, and Biden um is Biden, of course, and Biden um is Biden, of course, and Biden um is critical of Trump, etc., But Biden was critical of Trump, etc., But Biden was critical of Trump, etc., But Biden was part of the old order anyway. So all of part of the old order anyway. So all of part of the old order anyway. So all of these presidents intuited that the these presidents intuited that the these presidents intuited that the American people wanted to hear that American people wanted to hear that American people wanted to hear that there was going to be some more there was going to be some more there was going to be some more attention paid to them at home, right? attention paid to them at home, right? attention paid to them at home, right? And less of this craziness abroad. And less of this craziness abroad. And less of this craziness abroad. >> Why do we use the term democracy to >> Why do we use the term democracy to >> Why do we use the term democracy to describe our system? describe our system? describe our system? >> Well, because I think it is still >> Well, because I think it is still >> Well, because I think it is still fundamentally a democracy, but it's a fundamentally a democracy, but it's a fundamentally a democracy, but it's a democracy mediated through institutions, democracy mediated through institutions, democracy mediated through institutions, which is what a democracy is. And some which is what a democracy is. And some which is what a democracy is. And some of those institutions are committed to of those institutions are committed to of those institutions are committed to certain ways of doing business. Also, certain ways of doing business. Also, certain ways of doing business. Also, most Americans most of the time, almost most Americans most of the time, almost most Americans most of the time, almost all the time, don't think of foreign all the time, don't think of foreign all the time, don't think of foreign policy as very important. It's always policy as very important. It's always policy as very important. It's always way down there about 10 11 in the list way down there about 10 11 in the list way down there about 10 11 in the list of things you worry about, right? When of things you worry about, right? When of things you worry about, right? When you show polls, people worry about cost you show polls, people worry about cost you show polls, people worry about cost of living. They worry about health care.

of living. They worry about health care. of living. They worry about health care. They worry about education. and they They worry about education. and they They worry about education. and they worry about any and foreign policy worry about any and foreign policy worry about any and foreign policy except in rare circumstances like right except in rare circumstances like right except in rare circumstances like right after September 11th doesn't loom that after September 11th doesn't loom that after September 11th doesn't loom that large in the political calculations of large in the political calculations of large in the political calculations of most Americans most of the time. But if most Americans most of the time. But if most Americans most of the time. But if you're spending the overwhelming you're spending the overwhelming you're spending the overwhelming majority of the discretionary budget, majority of the discretionary budget, majority of the discretionary budget, 1.5 trillion just on the Pentagon, not 1.5 trillion just on the Pentagon, not 1.5 trillion just on the Pentagon, not including all kinds of other national including all kinds of other national including all kinds of other national security related expenses, security related expenses, security related expenses, >> I mean that the economy is directly >> I mean that the economy is directly >> I mean that the economy is directly linked to your foreign policy. In fact, linked to your foreign policy. In fact, linked to your foreign policy. In fact, it's driven by your foreign policy. it's driven by your foreign policy. it's driven by your foreign policy. Well, and and you know, there's a reason Well, and and you know, there's a reason Well, and and you know, there's a reason why uh there's Pentagon spending in why uh there's Pentagon spending in why uh there's Pentagon spending in every congressional district in the every congressional district in the every congressional district in the country, of course, right? And why country, of course, right? And why country, of course, right? And why weapons manufacturing gets distributed weapons manufacturing gets distributed weapons manufacturing gets distributed very broadly as well. So, yes, that very broadly as well. So, yes, that very broadly as well. So, yes, that money is coming out of all of our money is coming out of all of our money is coming out of all of our pockets, but it's also going to keep pockets, but it's also going to keep pockets, but it's also going to keep people employed, and that will keep, you people employed, and that will keep, you people employed, and that will keep, you know, local congressmen in district X in know, local congressmen in district X in know, local congressmen in district X in state Z voting for the budget because state Z voting for the budget because state Z voting for the budget because there's 6,000 jobs dependent upon that there's 6,000 jobs dependent upon that there's 6,000 jobs dependent upon that going through as well. Some of it is is going through as well. Some of it is is going through as well. Some of it is is structural in the way um our system structural in the way um our system structural in the way um our system works, but I wouldn't say it's not works, but I wouldn't say it's not works, but I wouldn't say it's not democratic for that reason. Well, I'm democratic for that reason. Well, I'm democratic for that reason. Well, I'm just saying if the big things that just saying if the big things that just saying if the big things that government does, like I don't know, government does, like I don't know, government does, like I don't know, writes the tax code, sends the troops, writes the tax code, sends the troops, writes the tax code, sends the troops, are inconsistent with what the public are inconsistent with what the public are inconsistent with what the public wants over generations, it it's not a wants over generations, it it's not a wants over generations, it it's not a democracy in any recognizable way. I democracy in any recognizable way. I democracy in any recognizable way. I mean, the system you may have, well, mean, the system you may have, well, mean, the system you may have, well, we've got, you know, bameal chamber and we've got, you know, bameal chamber and we've got, you know, bameal chamber and all this, but it's like so

all this, but it's like so all this, but it's like so >> no, but but that's true. I mean, public >> no, but but that's true. I mean, public >> no, but but that's true. I mean, public opinion polls would have if if public opinion polls would have if if public opinion polls would have if if public opinion were driving, right, public opinion were driving, right, public opinion were driving, right, public policy in every way. You'd probably have policy in every way. You'd probably have policy in every way. You'd probably have uh Medicare for all. You'd probably have uh Medicare for all. You'd probably have uh Medicare for all. You'd probably have a really significant changes in gun a really significant changes in gun a really significant changes in gun control, right? There's all sorts of control, right? There's all sorts of control, right? There's all sorts of issues where the public is at odds with issues where the public is at odds with issues where the public is at odds with what the political system produces. But what the political system produces. But what the political system produces. But I wouldn't say it's not democratic. I wouldn't say it's not democratic. I wouldn't say it's not democratic. >> But in what sense is it democratic? I I >> But in what sense is it democratic? I I >> But in what sense is it democratic? I I mean I thought the the definition of mean I thought the the definition of mean I thought the the definition of democracy was ownership of the state by democracy was ownership of the state by democracy was ownership of the state by the people and the governance of the the people and the governance of the the people and the governance of the state is mediated by the people they state is mediated by the people they state is mediated by the people they elect. But ultimately it's the do the elect. But ultimately it's the do the elect. But ultimately it's the do the what the state does reflects what the what the state does reflects what the what the state does reflects what the people want it to do because they own people want it to do because they own people want it to do because they own it. it. it. >> Yeah. And I and I think to a first >> Yeah. And I and I think to a first >> Yeah. And I and I think to a first approximation that is still true. I approximation that is still true. I approximation that is still true. I think that you know we got Donald Trump think that you know we got Donald Trump think that you know we got Donald Trump because the American people were unhappy because the American people were unhappy because the American people were unhappy with what the political system was. with what the political system was. with what the political system was. >> Trump did exactly what we've been doing. >> Trump did exactly what we've been doing. >> Trump did exactly what we've been doing. No, I know. I I I understand this. I No, I know. I I I understand this. I No, I know. I I I understand this. I understand this. Um, and Lord knows, you understand this. Um, and Lord knows, you understand this. Um, and Lord knows, you know, there are reasons why people think know, there are reasons why people think know, there are reasons why people think American democracy has American democracy has American democracy has gone by the wayside in a variety of gone by the wayside in a variety of gone by the wayside in a variety of different ways. I'm still, I guess, different ways. I'm still, I guess, different ways. I'm still, I guess, reluctant to declare the United States reluctant to declare the United States reluctant to declare the United States is not a democracy because the decisions is not a democracy because the decisions is not a democracy because the decisions made by people in government are not a made by people in government are not a made by people in government are not a perfect reflection of what the voter perfect reflection of what the voter perfect reflection of what the voter preferences are at a particular level.

preferences are at a particular level. preferences are at a particular level. on the biggest issues and and we measure on the biggest issues and and we measure on the biggest issues and and we measure that by how much we spend on those that by how much we spend on those that by how much we spend on those questions. Like that's just a one questions. Like that's just a one questions. Like that's just a one measure, but I think it's a pretty good measure, but I think it's a pretty good measure, but I think it's a pretty good one. Like what percentage of the budget one. Like what percentage of the budget one. Like what percentage of the budget goes to goes to goes to >> initiative X? If the the biggest ones >> initiative X? If the the biggest ones >> initiative X? If the the biggest ones are in direct opposition with the public are in direct opposition with the public are in direct opposition with the public wants, then I I don't really know how wants, then I I don't really know how wants, then I I don't really know how we're defining the term, I guess. we're defining the term, I guess. we're defining the term, I guess. >> Well, I think this is a complicated >> Well, I think this is a complicated >> Well, I think this is a complicated picture. So, there's also a difference picture. So, there's also a difference picture. So, there's also a difference between do you want a strong defense, do between do you want a strong defense, do between do you want a strong defense, do you support the troops, do you want us you support the troops, do you want us you support the troops, do you want us to be secure versus how do you want to be secure versus how do you want to be secure versus how do you want those resources to be used? So there's those resources to be used? So there's those resources to be used? So there's less support for say cutting the defense less support for say cutting the defense less support for say cutting the defense budget than there is for not invading budget than there is for not invading budget than there is for not invading other countries. Those are two different other countries. Those are two different other countries. Those are two different things, right? So most Americans want a things, right? So most Americans want a things, right? So most Americans want a strong defense, but they want that to be strong defense, but they want that to be strong defense, but they want that to be used differently than we have been using used differently than we have been using used differently than we have been using it it it >> for defense, for example. >> for defense, for example. >> for defense, for example. >> Right. I mean, >> Right. I mean, >> Right. I mean, >> right. Um, but yeah, I mean, I I don't >> right. Um, but yeah, I mean, I I don't >> right. Um, but yeah, I mean, I I don't know. This is my personal view. I'm not know. This is my personal view. I'm not know. This is my personal view. I'm not sure of the answers to most these sure of the answers to most these sure of the answers to most these questions, including the one I just questions, including the one I just questions, including the one I just posed to you. Is it a democracy? But I posed to you. Is it a democracy? But I posed to you. Is it a democracy? But I do think we would benefit from like a do think we would benefit from like a do think we would benefit from like a more open more open more open and persistent discussion about like and persistent discussion about like and persistent discussion about like what are these term like what do the what are these term like what do the what are these term like what do the terms mean? Like that would be helpful.

terms mean? Like that would be helpful. terms mean? Like that would be helpful. >> Yeah. No, I think I think that's right. >> Yeah. No, I think I think that's right. >> Yeah. No, I think I think that's right. And and the questions that are being And and the questions that are being And and the questions that are being raised now, uh I should caveat this by raised now, uh I should caveat this by raised now, uh I should caveat this by saying I've never considered myself saying I've never considered myself saying I've never considered myself really a student of American politics. I really a student of American politics. I really a student of American politics. I do international relations. Um but uh do international relations. Um but uh do international relations. Um but uh but I think the questions that have but I think the questions that have but I think the questions that have arisen now across the board about uh c arisen now across the board about uh c arisen now across the board about uh c certainly the role that money plays in certainly the role that money plays in certainly the role that money plays in American politics now which it's all American politics now which it's all American politics now which it's all it's not like it's never played a role it's not like it's never played a role it's not like it's never played a role in the past. that's always been in the past. that's always been in the past. that's always been influential and there are periods of influential and there are periods of influential and there are periods of American history where it was, you know, American history where it was, you know, American history where it was, you know, waxed and wayne in its influence, but it waxed and wayne in its influence, but it waxed and wayne in its influence, but it really is extraordinary now the amount really is extraordinary now the amount really is extraordinary now the amount of money that gets poured into politics of money that gets poured into politics of money that gets poured into politics and how it's concentrated in uh in and how it's concentrated in uh in and how it's concentrated in uh in various places and clearly shapes various places and clearly shapes various places and clearly shapes outcomes in a variety of ways and shapes outcomes in a variety of ways and shapes outcomes in a variety of ways and shapes uh the way members of Congress uh and uh the way members of Congress uh and uh the way members of Congress uh and others behave. Um that's important. I others behave. Um that's important. I others behave. Um that's important. I think we are still wrestling with the think we are still wrestling with the think we are still wrestling with the impact of social media and the impact of social media and the impact of social media and the explosion of the media environment. You explosion of the media environment. You explosion of the media environment. You know, it's no longer the three channels know, it's no longer the three channels know, it's no longer the three channels that you can listen to. It's no longer, that you can listen to. It's no longer, that you can listen to. It's no longer, you know, do you like Huntley and you know, do you like Huntley and you know, do you like Huntley and Brinkley or Walter Conrite? You've got Brinkley or Walter Conrite? You've got Brinkley or Walter Conrite? You've got as many different voices as you want to.

as many different voices as you want to. as many different voices as you want to. And what effect that ultimately has on And what effect that ultimately has on And what effect that ultimately has on politics. You know, I think we all kind politics. You know, I think we all kind politics. You know, I think we all kind of intuit it that the effect has of intuit it that the effect has of intuit it that the effect has probably not been good, but that's even probably not been good, but that's even probably not been good, but that's even there. It's not entirely true. It's there. It's not entirely true. It's there. It's not entirely true. It's clear. I think it's shaping our politics clear. I think it's shaping our politics clear. I think it's shaping our politics in a variety of ways that it didn't in a variety of ways that it didn't in a variety of ways that it didn't before. Probably in some beneficial ways before. Probably in some beneficial ways before. Probably in some beneficial ways and probably in some ways that are quite and probably in some ways that are quite and probably in some ways that are quite pernitious. So, there's a lot going on pernitious. So, there's a lot going on pernitious. So, there's a lot going on with American democracy and I think with American democracy and I think with American democracy and I think democracies in other parts of the world. democracies in other parts of the world. democracies in other parts of the world. And one of our major challenges is And one of our major challenges is And one of our major challenges is figuring out ways where we're more figuring out ways where we're more figuring out ways where we're more likely to get um likely to get um likely to get um uh responsible and accountable uh uh responsible and accountable uh uh responsible and accountable uh politicians. I would like responsible, politicians. I would like responsible, politicians. I would like responsible, knowledgeable and accountable knowledgeable and accountable knowledgeable and accountable politicians and have them be rewarded politicians and have them be rewarded politicians and have them be rewarded for that behavior as opposed to uh you for that behavior as opposed to uh you for that behavior as opposed to uh you know grandstanders, liars, grifters, know grandstanders, liars, grifters, know grandstanders, liars, grifters, people who have managed to achieve a people who have managed to achieve a people who have managed to achieve a following because they were good at following because they were good at following because they were good at basically attracting attention. And we basically attracting attention. And we basically attracting attention. And we have an awful lot of that in our have an awful lot of that in our have an awful lot of that in our politics and in our uh and in our politics and in our uh and in our politics and in our uh and in our punditry, if you will, or commentary.

punditry, if you will, or commentary. punditry, if you will, or commentary. And I I think it's deeply unhealthy. And I I think it's deeply unhealthy. And I I think it's deeply unhealthy. >> Well, it's obviously deeply unhealthy, >> Well, it's obviously deeply unhealthy, >> Well, it's obviously deeply unhealthy, but it's unhealthy in I think the more but it's unhealthy in I think the more but it's unhealthy in I think the more imminent problem is it like it's imminent problem is it like it's imminent problem is it like it's instability producing. instability producing. instability producing. That's what worries me. So, you wrote a That's what worries me. So, you wrote a That's what worries me. So, you wrote a book once and you were telling me at book once and you were telling me at book once and you were telling me at breakfast in which you described sort of breakfast in which you described sort of breakfast in which you described sort of the groundwork that allowed the French the groundwork that allowed the French the groundwork that allowed the French Revolution Revolution Revolution >> 1789 to happen. What did France look >> 1789 to happen. What did France look >> 1789 to happen. What did France look like the week before the mob stormed the like the week before the mob stormed the like the week before the mob stormed the Bastile? um the uh so France France there's some I don't so France France there's some I don't want to overstate these parallels you want to overstate these parallels you want to overstate these parallels you know historical analogies should always know historical analogies should always know historical analogies should always be used somewhat careful be used somewhat careful be used somewhat careful >> you don't even you just state what >> you don't even you just state what >> you don't even you just state what France is like and then let the viewer France is like and then let the viewer France is like and then let the viewer draw his own draw his own draw his own >> conclusions no so so you have a highly >> conclusions no so so you have a highly >> conclusions no so so you have a highly unequal system right all the political unequal system right all the political unequal system right all the political powers you know reserved in the powers you know reserved in the powers you know reserved in the aristocracy and the king um there is an aristocracy and the king um there is an aristocracy and the king um there is an estates general but it's not it doesn't estates general but it's not it doesn't estates general but it's not it doesn't have particular uh powers etc Although have particular uh powers etc Although have particular uh powers etc Although it plays a role in the story, highly all it plays a role in the story, highly all it plays a role in the story, highly all the wealths held by the crown, all the the wealths held by the crown, all the the wealths held by the crown, all the wealths held by the aristocracy and the wealths held by the aristocracy and the wealths held by the aristocracy and the church, church, church, >> right? And moreover, the system is >> right? And moreover, the system is >> right? And moreover, the system is rigged in such a way that those rigged in such a way that those rigged in such a way that those institutions that have all the resources institutions that have all the resources institutions that have all the resources really don't pay very much in taxes. You really don't pay very much in taxes. You really don't pay very much in taxes. You have a very large peasantry that has have a very large peasantry that has have a very large peasantry that has relatively little, lives hand-tomouth, relatively little, lives hand-tomouth, relatively little, lives hand-tomouth, etc.

etc. etc. >> They don't have economic power. They >> They don't have economic power. They >> They don't have economic power. They don't really have political power as don't really have political power as don't really have political power as well. A highly unequal situation. And well. A highly unequal situation. And well. A highly unequal situation. And because the people with the money aren't because the people with the money aren't because the people with the money aren't willing to spend any money in taxes, the willing to spend any money in taxes, the willing to spend any money in taxes, the state is chronically broke. And every state is chronically broke. And every state is chronically broke. And every time they fight a foreign war, which you time they fight a foreign war, which you time they fight a foreign war, which you know they do, helping the American know they do, helping the American know they do, helping the American Revolution, for example, they end up in Revolution, for example, they end up in Revolution, for example, they end up in more trouble financially. So they're more trouble financially. So they're more trouble financially. So they're constantly uh in financial trouble. Does constantly uh in financial trouble. Does constantly uh in financial trouble. Does this sound begin to sound familiar? And this sound begin to sound familiar? And this sound begin to sound familiar? And what among other things? Oh, final thing what among other things? Oh, final thing what among other things? Oh, final thing of course is literacy is gradually of course is literacy is gradually of course is literacy is gradually spreading. You have the printing press. spreading. You have the printing press. spreading. You have the printing press. You're getting an explosion in the media You're getting an explosion in the media You're getting an explosion in the media environment. Suddenly pamphleteers can environment. Suddenly pamphleteers can environment. Suddenly pamphleteers can put out various political tracks and the put out various political tracks and the put out various political tracks and the coffee houses in Paris. Lots of ideas coffee houses in Paris. Lots of ideas coffee houses in Paris. Lots of ideas are being swapped around. You do have are being swapped around. You do have are being swapped around. You do have some intellectuals who are starting to some intellectuals who are starting to some intellectuals who are starting to write about democracy. Famous things write about democracy. Famous things write about democracy. Famous things that get circulated. People begin to that get circulated. People begin to that get circulated. People begin to talk about this maybe rights of man, talk about this maybe rights of man, talk about this maybe rights of man, stuff like this. And um so you have a stuff like this. And um so you have a stuff like this. And um so you have a lot fermenting below the surface here. lot fermenting below the surface here. lot fermenting below the surface here. Um and then finally the fiscal crisis Um and then finally the fiscal crisis Um and then finally the fiscal crisis becomes so significant that Louie has to becomes so significant that Louie has to becomes so significant that Louie has to call the estates general this quasi call the estates general this quasi call the estates general this quasi parliament to come in and authorize some parliament to come in and authorize some parliament to come in and authorize some new financial matters and that's the new financial matters and that's the new financial matters and that's the thing that begins to generate a genuine thing that begins to generate a genuine thing that begins to generate a genuine sort of call it grassroots movement sort of call it grassroots movement sort of call it grassroots movement within the political elite or or within the political elite or or within the political elite or or whatever for change whatever for change whatever for change >> a debt crisis.

>> a debt crisis. >> a debt crisis. >> Yeah. And the change then spins >> Yeah. And the change then spins >> Yeah. And the change then spins completely out of control in a variety completely out of control in a variety completely out of control in a variety of different ways. And there's of course of different ways. And there's of course of different ways. And there's of course huge contingencies in all of this. You huge contingencies in all of this. You huge contingencies in all of this. You can imagine ways this bounces can imagine ways this bounces can imagine ways this bounces differently and in people in the right differently and in people in the right differently and in people in the right place wrong time etc. But the end result place wrong time etc. But the end result place wrong time etc. But the end result here is the collapse of the French here is the collapse of the French here is the collapse of the French aristocracy, the rise of Napoleon, aristocracy, the rise of Napoleon, aristocracy, the rise of Napoleon, 25 years of war. um all sorts of bad 25 years of war. um all sorts of bad 25 years of war. um all sorts of bad consequences and to some degree you can consequences and to some degree you can consequences and to some degree you can trace it to you know horrible wealth trace it to you know horrible wealth trace it to you know horrible wealth inequality, denial of political agency, inequality, denial of political agency, inequality, denial of political agency, the lower classes, spread of information the lower classes, spread of information the lower classes, spread of information in ways that are no longer mediated or in ways that are no longer mediated or in ways that are no longer mediated or controlled, etc. controlled, etc. controlled, etc. >> And a debt crisis driven by pointless >> And a debt crisis driven by pointless >> And a debt crisis driven by pointless foreign wars. foreign wars. foreign wars. >> Yeah. Exacerbated, I would say. >> Yeah. Exacerbated, I would say. >> Yeah. Exacerbated, I would say. >> Exacerbated. Okay. So, I'm not I'm not >> Exacerbated. Okay. So, I'm not I'm not >> Exacerbated. Okay. So, I'm not I'm not drawing any parallels at all, but I just drawing any parallels at all, but I just drawing any parallels at all, but I just kind of throwing it out there. As I said kind of throwing it out there. As I said kind of throwing it out there. As I said to you before, this is if I were a to you before, this is if I were a to you before, this is if I were a really wealthy, you know, person, I really wealthy, you know, person, I really wealthy, you know, person, I would worry about this. Um, one of the would worry about this. Um, one of the would worry about this. Um, one of the things that, uh, you know, back in the things that, uh, you know, back in the things that, uh, you know, back in the age of robber barons and, uh, both, not age of robber barons and, uh, both, not age of robber barons and, uh, both, not just here, but in other countries, Great just here, but in other countries, Great just here, but in other countries, Great Britain where there was enormous income Britain where there was enormous income Britain where there was enormous income inequality, you know, end of 19th inequality, you know, end of 19th inequality, you know, end of 19th century. I think one of the things that century. I think one of the things that century. I think one of the things that saved capitalism in the in the 20th saved capitalism in the in the 20th saved capitalism in the in the 20th century from bulcheism and other things century from bulcheism and other things century from bulcheism and other things was um the development of the modern was um the development of the modern was um the development of the modern welfare state. The essentially income welfare state. The essentially income welfare state. The essentially income redistribution that you wealthy people redistribution that you wealthy people redistribution that you wealthy people are going to live really great lives.

are going to live really great lives. are going to live really great lives. Good for you. Congratulations. Thank you Good for you. Congratulations. Thank you Good for you. Congratulations. Thank you for all your contributions. But you're for all your contributions. But you're for all your contributions. But you're going to have to give a bit larger share going to have to give a bit larger share going to have to give a bit larger share here. You can't uh run the laboring here. You can't uh run the laboring here. You can't uh run the laboring classes like surfs uh etc. lots of classes like surfs uh etc. lots of classes like surfs uh etc. lots of different uh arrangements and this different uh arrangements and this different uh arrangements and this happened across many many countries happened across many many countries happened across many many countries especially here in the United States especially here in the United States especially here in the United States with the New Deal and I think it was with the New Deal and I think it was with the New Deal and I think it was again a remarkable success uh overall again a remarkable success uh overall again a remarkable success uh overall and prevented the kind of lower class and prevented the kind of lower class and prevented the kind of lower class upheavalss that you saw in some other upheavalss that you saw in some other upheavalss that you saw in some other societies as well. So if I were a societies as well. So if I were a societies as well. So if I were a wealthy oligarch today I would have that wealthy oligarch today I would have that wealthy oligarch today I would have that in mind. You know what I would do is say in mind. You know what I would do is say in mind. You know what I would do is say against your will, we're going to against your will, we're going to against your will, we're going to develop a new technology that you're develop a new technology that you're develop a new technology that you're going to subsidize through your tax going to subsidize through your tax going to subsidize through your tax dollars in the form of I don't know data dollars in the form of I don't know data dollars in the form of I don't know data centers that is going to eliminate your centers that is going to eliminate your centers that is going to eliminate your jobs and none of your kids are going to jobs and none of your kids are going to jobs and none of your kids are going to be employed and there's nothing you can be employed and there's nothing you can be employed and there's nothing you can do about it. do about it. do about it. >> Um yeah, but their kids don't need to be >> Um yeah, but their kids don't need to be >> Um yeah, but their kids don't need to be employed. No, but I'm just saying like employed. No, but I'm just saying like employed. No, but I'm just saying like >> what that rather than respond in a >> what that rather than respond in a >> what that rather than respond in a sensible way that preserves the system, sensible way that preserves the system, sensible way that preserves the system, what's good about the system, it does what's good about the system, it does what's good about the system, it does seem like the people in charge of the seem like the people in charge of the seem like the people in charge of the system like are making it worse almost system like are making it worse almost system like are making it worse almost on purpose. And I don't understand the on purpose. And I don't understand the on purpose. And I don't understand the thinking there. Yeah, it it I think that thinking there. Yeah, it it I think that thinking there. Yeah, it it I think that we have um what what's interesting I we have um what what's interesting I we have um what what's interesting I think about you know previous wealthy think about you know previous wealthy think about you know previous wealthy elites in the United States is not all elites in the United States is not all elites in the United States is not all by any means uh but many of them also by any means uh but many of them also by any means uh but many of them also had along with you know the usual drive had along with you know the usual drive had along with you know the usual drive and ambition and you could even argue

and ambition and you could even argue and ambition and you could even argue greed um also did have a certain greed um also did have a certain greed um also did have a certain public-mindedness public-mindedness public-mindedness um um um >> was called Christianity but >> was called Christianity but >> was called Christianity but >> well no it wasn't just Christianity uh I >> well no it wasn't just Christianity uh I >> well no it wasn't just Christianity uh I think some of them were you know, think some of them were you know, think some of them were you know, obviously devout and faithful in in obviously devout and faithful in in obviously devout and faithful in in their own fashion that may have played a their own fashion that may have played a their own fashion that may have played a role in it. But even those that weren't role in it. But even those that weren't role in it. But even those that weren't were or didn't wear their religion on were or didn't wear their religion on were or didn't wear their religion on their sleeve, there was a a general their sleeve, there was a a general their sleeve, there was a a general sense that they were part of a larger sense that they were part of a larger sense that they were part of a larger society and that they owed. They they society and that they owed. They they society and that they owed. They they you had to sort of give back uh in in you had to sort of give back uh in in you had to sort of give back uh in in some respects. Um and that appears to be some respects. Um and that appears to be some respects. Um and that appears to be largely absent in the wealthiest people largely absent in the wealthiest people largely absent in the wealthiest people I could name right now. you don't get I could name right now. you don't get I could name right now. you don't get the impression that they care very much the impression that they care very much the impression that they care very much about the collectivity. Um and uh that's about the collectivity. Um and uh that's about the collectivity. Um and uh that's not healthy. That's not a good good not healthy. That's not a good good not healthy. That's not a good good situation. situation. situation. >> Well, it's evil, but also dangerous. >> Well, it's evil, but also dangerous. >> Well, it's evil, but also dangerous. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> As you just pointed out. >> As you just pointed out. >> As you just pointed out. >> Yeah. I'm I'm I'm more worried about the >> Yeah. I'm I'm I'm more worried about the >> Yeah. I'm I'm I'm more worried about the danger part than the evil part. But danger part than the evil part. But danger part than the evil part. But that's just me. that's just me. that's just me. >> No, I I think one leads to the next.

>> No, I I think one leads to the next. >> No, I I think one leads to the next. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> So, last question. Do you think I mean >> So, last question. Do you think I mean >> So, last question. Do you think I mean and it's related to that and it's related to that and it's related to that you wrote you know one of the most you wrote you know one of the most you wrote you know one of the most famous books about it was in some sense famous books about it was in some sense famous books about it was in some sense an autopsy of like the Iraq war I don't an autopsy of like the Iraq war I don't an autopsy of like the Iraq war I don't think it was built as that but that was think it was built as that but that was think it was built as that but that was my take on it and so you followed my take on it and so you followed my take on it and so you followed you know wars like the one we're in for you know wars like the one we're in for you know wars like the one we're in for a long time and you just said I keep a long time and you just said I keep a long time and you just said I keep expecting a correction and it never expecting a correction and it never expecting a correction and it never comes. comes. comes. >> Yeah. This one if you could make a >> Yeah. This one if you could make a >> Yeah. This one if you could make a prediction like do does this change our prediction like do does this change our prediction like do does this change our politics? Is it is this kind of the last politics? Is it is this kind of the last politics? Is it is this kind of the last thing like this? thing like this? thing like this? >> Um, >> Um, >> Um, so I I think it might be uh but for so I I think it might be uh but for so I I think it might be uh but for reasons that are not really um about the reasons that are not really um about the reasons that are not really um about the Iran war per se. I mean, I think that Iran war per se. I mean, I think that Iran war per se. I mean, I think that the sea change actually began a while the sea change actually began a while the sea change actually began a while back and uh it's maybe the one positive back and uh it's maybe the one positive back and uh it's maybe the one positive contribution I'd give credit to Donald contribution I'd give credit to Donald contribution I'd give credit to Donald Trump for um who I believe will Trump for um who I believe will Trump for um who I believe will eventually be remembered um by uh eventually be remembered um by uh eventually be remembered um by uh Americans and by others as like the most Americans and by others as like the most Americans and by others as like the most disastrous president we have ever had disastrous president we have ever had disastrous president we have ever had and will be remembered by America's and will be remembered by America's and will be remembered by America's adversaries as the greatest thing that adversaries as the greatest thing that adversaries as the greatest thing that ever happened to them. Um that's just my ever happened to them. Um that's just my ever happened to them. Um that's just my view. Anyway, um I I think what Trump view. Anyway, um I I think what Trump view. Anyway, um I I think what Trump did in 2016 was he um he so challenged did in 2016 was he um he so challenged did in 2016 was he um he so challenged the prevailing consensus on American the prevailing consensus on American the prevailing consensus on American foreign policy, bipartisan consensus. Um foreign policy, bipartisan consensus. Um foreign policy, bipartisan consensus. Um and he did it in a way that was very

and he did it in a way that was very and he did it in a way that was very dismissive of the foreign policy dismissive of the foreign policy dismissive of the foreign policy leadership. leadership. leadership. >> Literally back of the hand dismissive. >> Literally back of the hand dismissive. >> Literally back of the hand dismissive. um to the extent that as you will um to the extent that as you will um to the extent that as you will probably remember right there were open probably remember right there were open probably remember right there were open letters signed by former Republican letters signed by former Republican letters signed by former Republican national security officials you know national security officials you know national security officials you know dozens of them uh published open letters dozens of them uh published open letters dozens of them uh published open letters uh denouncing Trump's presidency. uh denouncing Trump's presidency. uh denouncing Trump's presidency. >> Oh I was there. >> Oh I was there. >> Oh I was there. >> Yeah. Um and >> Yeah. Um and >> Yeah. Um and what by doing that what Trump did was he what by doing that what Trump did was he what by doing that what Trump did was he opened up in some respects a broader opened up in some respects a broader opened up in some respects a broader discussion. He made it possible or discussion. He made it possible or discussion. He made it possible or easier to talk about that. Now some easier to talk about that. Now some easier to talk about that. Now some others had already started to do that others had already started to do that others had already started to do that had written things uh that were starting had written things uh that were starting had written things uh that were starting to open that up. Um you know to open that up. Um you know to open that up. Um you know organizations like the Quincy Institute organizations like the Quincy Institute organizations like the Quincy Institute where I'm on on the board were not yet where I'm on on the board were not yet where I'm on on the board were not yet in existence but getting formed in the in existence but getting formed in the in existence but getting formed in the process of being established. So you process of being established. So you process of being established. So you could the cracks were beginning to form could the cracks were beginning to form could the cracks were beginning to form in the edifice after 25 or so years of in the edifice after 25 or so years of in the edifice after 25 or so years of failure. Um and but having a failure. Um and but having a failure. Um and but having a presidential candidate and then a presidential candidate and then a presidential candidate and then a president who openly proclaimed some of president who openly proclaimed some of president who openly proclaimed some of these ideas or at least ideas that were these ideas or at least ideas that were these ideas or at least ideas that were adjacent and certainly questioned the adjacent and certainly questioned the adjacent and certainly questioned the consensus made it possible to start consensus made it possible to start consensus made it possible to start having uh having a broader discussion. I having uh having a broader discussion. I having uh having a broader discussion. I think that was that was very healthy.

think that was that was very healthy. think that was that was very healthy. Um, now just because things are bad Um, now just because things are bad Um, now just because things are bad doesn't mean they can't get worse. And I doesn't mean they can't get worse. And I doesn't mean they can't get worse. And I think some of the other things that think some of the other things that think some of the other things that Trump has done did not either fulfill Trump has done did not either fulfill Trump has done did not either fulfill the promises that he made and we're the promises that he made and we're the promises that he made and we're seeing that uh come to fruition now. But seeing that uh come to fruition now. But seeing that uh come to fruition now. But I do think that we've we are in the I do think that we've we are in the I do think that we've we are in the process of seeing process of seeing process of seeing not just a sea change in public not just a sea change in public not just a sea change in public attitudes, which you do see um on a a attitudes, which you do see um on a a attitudes, which you do see um on a a variety of different issues, but also a variety of different issues, but also a variety of different issues, but also a change in the let's call it the change in the let's call it the change in the let's call it the intellectual landscape. uh in intellectual landscape. uh in intellectual landscape. uh in Washington. I think it is a broader Washington. I think it is a broader Washington. I think it is a broader conversation uh now splits uh within the conversation uh now splits uh within the conversation uh now splits uh within the Democratic party on a lot of these Democratic party on a lot of these Democratic party on a lot of these questions, splits within the Republican questions, splits within the Republican questions, splits within the Republican party on a lot of these questions. Some party on a lot of these questions. Some party on a lot of these questions. Some of the think tanks that you used to see of the think tanks that you used to see of the think tanks that you used to see as as as >> almost indistinguishable from each >> almost indistinguishable from each >> almost indistinguishable from each other. AEI and Heritage on the on the other. AEI and Heritage on the on the other. AEI and Heritage on the on the right are now kind of at odds or moving right are now kind of at odds or moving right are now kind of at odds or moving in opposite directions. Some internal in opposite directions. Some internal in opposite directions. Some internal splits within them. And on the one hand, splits within them. And on the one hand, splits within them. And on the one hand, that's you could argue that that's sort that's you could argue that that's sort that's you could argue that that's sort of worrisome uh-oh chaos. But on the of worrisome uh-oh chaos. But on the of worrisome uh-oh chaos. But on the other hand, uh if we've been suffering other hand, uh if we've been suffering other hand, uh if we've been suffering from an excessive consensus and an from an excessive consensus and an from an excessive consensus and an inability to ask questions, ability to inability to ask questions, ability to inability to ask questions, ability to criticize, and very importantly, a criticize, and very importantly, a criticize, and very importantly, a steadfast refusal to hold anybody steadfast refusal to hold anybody steadfast refusal to hold anybody accountable for mistakes. This is accountable for mistakes. This is accountable for mistakes. This is probably a good thing. you think people probably a good thing. you think people probably a good thing. you think people will be held account I mean that that's will be held account I mean that that's will be held account I mean that that's the one thing that never happens in the the one thing that never happens in the the one thing that never happens in the American system.

American system. American system. >> It's it's a fascinating question. Um >> It's it's a fascinating question. Um >> It's it's a fascinating question. Um it's and it's a huge problem. Uh I mean it's and it's a huge problem. Uh I mean it's and it's a huge problem. Uh I mean the the the >> the people who complain get held >> the people who complain get held >> the people who complain get held accountable I notice but not the people accountable I notice but not the people accountable I notice but not the people who made the bad decisions. who made the bad decisions. who made the bad decisions. >> So so this I think this has been a big >> So so this I think this has been a big >> So so this I think this has been a big problem and it's it's a it's a but it's problem and it's it's a it's a but it's problem and it's it's a it's a but it's a tricky one. So, one of the issues I a tricky one. So, one of the issues I a tricky one. So, one of the issues I there's a chapter in uh my book Hell of there's a chapter in uh my book Hell of there's a chapter in uh my book Hell of Good Intentions on this um where I Good Intentions on this um where I Good Intentions on this um where I basically make this argument that if you basically make this argument that if you basically make this argument that if you look across the foreign policy elite, look across the foreign policy elite, look across the foreign policy elite, hardly anybody pays a price for for hardly anybody pays a price for for hardly anybody pays a price for for screwing up. Um and in fact the more screwing up. Um and in fact the more screwing up. Um and in fact the more common pattern is you go into common pattern is you go into common pattern is you go into government, you screw up uh and you may government, you screw up uh and you may government, you screw up uh and you may go out of power for a while, you land a go out of power for a while, you land a go out of power for a while, you land a safe synicure at a think tank or safe synicure at a think tank or safe synicure at a think tank or whatever and then when the stars line up whatever and then when the stars line up whatever and then when the stars line up properly, you go back in and make the properly, you go back in and make the properly, you go back in and make the same mistakes. same mistakes. same mistakes. >> You join a consulting firm and get rich >> You join a consulting firm and get rich >> You join a consulting firm and get rich >> or you well along the way you may make a >> or you well along the way you may make a >> or you well along the way you may make a bunch of money too. And uh and when bunch of money too. And uh and when bunch of money too. And uh and when people are really guilty of various people are really guilty of various people are really guilty of various forms of of malfeasants and are exposed forms of of malfeasants and are exposed forms of of malfeasants and are exposed to that, you know, they sometimes pay a to that, you know, they sometimes pay a to that, you know, they sometimes pay a modest price for public embarrassment um modest price for public embarrassment um modest price for public embarrassment um etc. In case of crimes, maybe pay a etc. In case of crimes, maybe pay a etc. In case of crimes, maybe pay a fine, but notice that usually the system fine, but notice that usually the system fine, but notice that usually the system rallies around such people, protects rallies around such people, protects rallies around such people, protects them, and they're they're fine. You can them, and they're they're fine. You can them, and they're they're fine. You can all think of examples or similar thing, all think of examples or similar thing, all think of examples or similar thing, the same people keep getting reappointed the same people keep getting reappointed the same people keep getting reappointed to the same jobs and keep doing the same to the same jobs and keep doing the same to the same jobs and keep doing the same bad job. This is the history of American bad job. This is the history of American bad job. This is the history of American peace negotiations in the Middle East.

peace negotiations in the Middle East. peace negotiations in the Middle East. Um, the reason it's tricky is the Um, the reason it's tricky is the Um, the reason it's tricky is the following. That everybody makes following. That everybody makes following. That everybody makes mistakes. Doing public policy is hard. mistakes. Doing public policy is hard. mistakes. Doing public policy is hard. Doing foreign policy is hard. No one's Doing foreign policy is hard. No one's Doing foreign policy is hard. No one's going to get everything right all the going to get everything right all the going to get everything right all the time. And you wouldn't want to rule time. And you wouldn't want to rule time. And you wouldn't want to rule someone completely out of public service someone completely out of public service someone completely out of public service because they made one screw- up or they because they made one screw- up or they because they made one screw- up or they got something badly wrong when it was got something badly wrong when it was got something badly wrong when it was not clear what the right answer was, not clear what the right answer was, not clear what the right answer was, etc. You wouldn't want to end somebody's etc. You wouldn't want to end somebody's etc. You wouldn't want to end somebody's career at 33 because they made a career at 33 because they made a career at 33 because they made a mistake. So you have to exercise a mistake. So you have to exercise a mistake. So you have to exercise a certain amount of judgment here. And my certain amount of judgment here. And my certain amount of judgment here. And my criteria tend to be the following. First criteria tend to be the following. First criteria tend to be the following. First of all, if somebody keeps making the of all, if somebody keeps making the of all, if somebody keeps making the same argument over and over and over same argument over and over and over same argument over and over and over again, and it never works. At some again, and it never works. At some again, and it never works. At some point, you really should stop giving point, you really should stop giving point, you really should stop giving them jobs or you should stop listening them jobs or you should stop listening them jobs or you should stop listening to them. The system, you know, they to them. The system, you know, they to them. The system, you know, they shouldn't necessarily be given a prime shouldn't necessarily be given a prime shouldn't necessarily be given a prime spot in the New York Times. It's not a spot in the New York Times. It's not a spot in the New York Times. It's not a radical demand, professor. radical demand, professor. radical demand, professor. >> No, no, at some point we ought to we >> No, no, at some point we ought to we >> No, no, at some point we ought to we ought to see that. Um, and secondly, if ought to see that. Um, and secondly, if ought to see that. Um, and secondly, if people are utterly unrepentant, people are utterly unrepentant, people are utterly unrepentant, right? If they so there I have good right? If they so there I have good right? If they so there I have good friends uh who uh and some people I friends uh who uh and some people I friends uh who uh and some people I don't even know who say vocal supporters don't even know who say vocal supporters don't even know who say vocal supporters of the Iraq war and some of them have of the Iraq war and some of them have of the Iraq war and some of them have never recanted. Some of them still think never recanted. Some of them still think never recanted. Some of them still think it was the right thing to do. Others it was the right thing to do. Others it was the right thing to do. Others have said, you know, my head was in the have said, you know, my head was in the have said, you know, my head was in the clouds. I wasn't thinking clearly. I I clouds. I wasn't thinking clearly. I I clouds. I wasn't thinking clearly. I I believed X, Y, or Z. I was wrong. And believed X, Y, or Z. I was wrong. And believed X, Y, or Z. I was wrong. And when you make a mistake, if you can

when you make a mistake, if you can when you make a mistake, if you can admit it, you can acknowledge that, admit it, you can acknowledge that, admit it, you can acknowledge that, yeah, I got that one completely wrong, yeah, I got that one completely wrong, yeah, I got that one completely wrong, and here's why. Here's what I missed. and here's why. Here's what I missed. and here's why. Here's what I missed. Here's what I was misled by. Here's what Here's what I was misled by. Here's what Here's what I was misled by. Here's what I should have thought harder about. I I should have thought harder about. I I should have thought harder about. I have a lot of respect for that. And I'm have a lot of respect for that. And I'm have a lot of respect for that. And I'm much more inclined to say, "Okay, that's much more inclined to say, "Okay, that's much more inclined to say, "Okay, that's someone I'm willing to either maybe someone I'm willing to either maybe someone I'm willing to either maybe reappoint or someone I'm willing to reappoint or someone I'm willing to reappoint or someone I'm willing to listen to because they've shown a listen to because they've shown a listen to because they've shown a capacity for judgment, capacity for capacity for judgment, capacity for capacity for judgment, capacity for learning." learning." learning." What I kept seeing throughout the What I kept seeing throughout the What I kept seeing throughout the foreign policy uh elite was um a lot of foreign policy uh elite was um a lot of foreign policy uh elite was um a lot of people who really had trouble admitting people who really had trouble admitting people who really had trouble admitting they'd made mistakes were very good at they'd made mistakes were very good at they'd made mistakes were very good at defending every decision they'd ever defending every decision they'd ever defending every decision they'd ever made and you know somehow kept finding made and you know somehow kept finding made and you know somehow kept finding the same answer to to the question even the same answer to to the question even the same answer to to the question even when the conditions had changed. Even when the conditions had changed. Even when the conditions had changed. Even when the circumstances were different, when the circumstances were different, when the circumstances were different, they still had the same uh same answer. they still had the same uh same answer. they still had the same uh same answer. And and as you indicated, it was also And and as you indicated, it was also And and as you indicated, it was also quite to me quite telling that the quite to me quite telling that the quite to me quite telling that the people whose careers got ended were people whose careers got ended were people whose careers got ended were often people who turned out to be right.

often people who turned out to be right. often people who turned out to be right. >> You know, whistleblowers >> You know, whistleblowers >> You know, whistleblowers or who just took an unpopular position or who just took an unpopular position or who just took an unpopular position and, you know, were vindicated 5 years and, you know, were vindicated 5 years and, you know, were vindicated 5 years later or six years later, but by then, later or six years later, but by then, later or six years later, but by then, you know, things had moved on. They'd you know, things had moved on. They'd you know, things had moved on. They'd already been been moved out. and you already been been moved out. and you already been been moved out. and you know finding the right balance between know finding the right balance between know finding the right balance between um respectful dissent, principled um respectful dissent, principled um respectful dissent, principled dissent and the right balance between, dissent and the right balance between, dissent and the right balance between, you know, you're not going to get you know, you're not going to get you know, you're not going to get everything right, but everything right, but everything right, but we need accountability without a sort of we need accountability without a sort of we need accountability without a sort of grim trigger that penalizes people grim trigger that penalizes people grim trigger that penalizes people instantaneously. instantaneously. instantaneously. Last point I'll make about this gets Last point I'll make about this gets Last point I'll make about this gets back to this. I do also worry that um back to this. I do also worry that um back to this. I do also worry that um that the way the now the media that the way the now the media that the way the now the media environment operates and our discourse environment operates and our discourse environment operates and our discourse operates um operates um operates um you know people can get pillaried for you know people can get pillaried for you know people can get pillaried for things that are essentially irrelevant things that are essentially irrelevant things that are essentially irrelevant because it becomes a social media thing because it becomes a social media thing because it becomes a social media thing as well and unless they're protected as well and unless they're protected as well and unless they're protected unless they have a lot of internal unless they have a lot of internal unless they have a lot of internal resources to deal with that kind of resources to deal with that kind of resources to deal with that kind of firestorm uh it can be really really firestorm uh it can be really really firestorm uh it can be really really difficult and I think that's unfortunate difficult and I think that's unfortunate difficult and I think that's unfortunate too. Well, it discourages telling the too. Well, it discourages telling the too. Well, it discourages telling the truth, right?

truth, right? truth, right? >> People are afraid. I felt it. I mean, >> People are afraid. I felt it. I mean, >> People are afraid. I felt it. I mean, who hasn't? who hasn't? who hasn't? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> You haven't apparently because you did >> You haven't apparently because you did >> You haven't apparently because you did it anyway. So, thank you. it anyway. So, thank you. it anyway. So, thank you. >> You you you never you you do it, but >> You you you never you you do it, but >> You you you never you you do it, but that doesn't mean you're not nervous that doesn't mean you're not nervous that doesn't mean you're not nervous about it. about it. about it. >> Yeah. Professor Walt, thank you very >> Yeah. Professor Walt, thank you very >> Yeah. Professor Walt, thank you very much for doing this. much for doing this. much for doing this. >> Nice talking with you.